While that might not seem so bad to some, 4.41 BB/9 is right on par with what Jonathan Sanchez posted last year, and it would essentially put Wilson below the 10th percentile of pitchers in terms of control.
Take a look at what he's done in 2011 with his fastball and slider vs. 2010 (data via TexasLeaguers) --
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| note: 2010 includes postseason |
The problem mostly seems to stem from his fastball; he's thrown it for strikes just 55.6% of the time and he isn't really fooling anybody. Hitters' swing% against his fastball is down nearly 10%, and their whiff rate is down nearly 6%.
This is kind of significant. What made Wilson an elite pitcher last year was his ability to maintain an elite K rate while keeping his walk rate at a league-average level. Now, instead of the pitcher he was in 2010, we should expect him to be slightly worse than the pitcher he was in 2009 (in addition to the increase in walks, his K rate looks to decrease slightly). Still a great pitcher, sure; but not the force he was throughout 2010.
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