Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects of 2011

Today, Keith Law released his prospect rankings. An insider account is required to view them, but Brandon Belt made the list at 17, and Zach Wheeler came in at 36 (h/t 8th Inning Weirdness). Law also released his Giants top ten, and here's the list:

1. Brandon Belt, 1B
2. Zach Wheeler, SP
3. Gary Brown, OF
4. Francisco Peguero, CF
5. Charlie Culberson, 2B
6. Thomas Neal, OF
7. Ehire Adrianza, SS
8. Eric Surkamp, LHP
9. Heath Hembree, RHP
10. Tommy Joseph, C

LINK: Baseball America - SF Giants Top Ten Prospects

1. Brandon Belt, 1b
2. Zack Wheeler, rhp
3. Gary Brown, of
4. Francisco Peguero, of
5. Ehire Adrianza, ss
6. Brandon Crawford, ss
7. Thomas Neal, of
8. Charlie Culberson, 2b
9. Eric Surkamp, lhp
10. Tommy Joseph, c/1b

Jeff Suppan Signs with the Giants

Jeff Suppan is the sixth starter.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	ERA	GS	IP	ERA+	WHIP	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	33	MIL	NL	4.96	31	177.2	85	1.542	3.4	4.6	1.34
2009	34	MIL	NL	5.29	30	161.2	78	1.695	4.1	4.5	1.08
2010	35	TOT	NL	5.06	15	101.1	78	1.648	3.3	4.5	1.38

I think this table pretty much speaks for itself. Over the last three seasons, Suppan has posted an ERA+ of 81 to go along with a measly strikeout rate of 4.5 K/9. And it's not even like he has great control...

But hey, that's what you get in January, in a thin pitching market, for a sixth starter. I don't dislike the deal at all: the Giants need a backup plan, and this is how they addressed it. Suppan will get a minor league contract, and if he makes the roster out of Spring Training, he'll get $1MM. If he doesn't make the roster (I presume 25-man roster, but I'm not entirely sure) he can opt out of the contract. I'm not sure he can make the 25-man roster -- even as a long relief guy. But we'll see.

I'll make it clear, though. I hope he never has to start a game for the Giants...I don't even want to see him in the bullpen to be honest, but whatever...

Via Ehire Adrianza's Twitter account...28 dias para Spring Training. Almost there.

Peek at the Prospects: Ehire Adrianza

Ehire Adrianza
Position: SS
Opening Day Age: 21
John Sickels' Grade: C+
Fangraphs Estimated Peak WAR: 3.5
ZiPS Projection: .232/.295/.311

Ehire Adrianza is an excellent defensive shortstop. As Marc Hulet of Fangraphs says, "In the field, he displays outstanding range, excellent hands, and a solid arm." How he will perform offensively, however,
remains to be seen. While he displays excellent plate discipline -- a 9.3% BB rate over the past two seasons -- he lacks power. He does have good speed though, having stolen 33 bases in high-A last season. Ultimately, his upside appears to be as an Elvis Andrus-type player: outstanding fielder, good speed (although he certainly won't steal as much as Andrus), weak power, good plate discipline.

The ultimate consensus with Adrianza is great defense, questionable offense...as Hulet states, "At worst, he should develop into a solid utility player or a Cesar Izturis-type middle infielder."

John Sickels: "Love the glove, but not sure he'll hit enough to get beyond a utility spot."

I like what Adrianza brings to the system. It'd be nice to have his speed, and if he can hit like a league average shortstop in addition to playing excellent defense, he could be quite valuable.

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Other posts in the PatP series:

• Brandon Belt
• Francisco Peguero

Peek at the Prospects: Francisco Peguero

Francisco Peguero

Position: OF
Opening Day Age: 22
John Sickels' Grade: B-
Fangraphs Estimated Peak WAR: 4.5
ZiPS Projection: .292/.315/.400

I am going to be perfectly honest here. Peguero scares me, and that's not a good thing. In spite of his blazing speed, there are two reasons I am worried about him. The first reason is his BABIP. In high-A in 2010, he hit .329, which is an outstanding mark. However, it was propelled by a .382 BABIP, which is rather high. In spite of his speed, which would explain the high BABIP, it is very possible that this mark will regress, especially at the major league level. With it, his batting average, the only nice part about his slash line, will decline. The second reason I am very worried about him is that his walk rate is nauseating. In high-A in 2010, he walked at a whopping rate of 3.3%. A 3.3% walk rate would rank as the second-worst mark in the majors in 2010. Peguero's a speedy guy, with 40 stolen bases in 122 games in 2010, so in order to maximize his value, he needs to get on base. The plate discipline he's shown is simply unacceptable. 

On a more positive note, he is highly touted for a reason, and his fantastic speed is very refreshing to see in the Giants' farm system. Along with Ehire Adrianza and Gary Brown, he could help to shape a new era in which the Giants aren't incredibly slow, but are instead fast. Speed is a skill the Giants seem to have neglected in recent years, but it can be important, as we've seen it significantly contribute to the success of some major league teams -- notably the Rays and the Rangers. 

This John Sickels quote pretty much sums up Peguero: "If he doesn't hit .300+ at higher levels he'll have a problem, although his tools will get him to the majors and keep him there for some time."

His offense has some inherent flaws, but with the speed he has, he could easily enjoy success on a major league level. 

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Other posts in the PatP series:

• Brandon Belt

Peek at the Prospects: Brandon Belt

The internet is rife with analysis on the Giants' top prospects -- most notably Fangraphs and Minor League Ball. On January 26, Baseball America will release their San Francisco Giants Top Ten Prospects Scouting Reports. Leading up to that, I thought I'd take a peek at various Giants prospects, referencing the analysis from Fangraphs, Minor League Ball, and the Giants 2011 ZiPS projections. For now, I plan on looking at the following players (in no particular order):

• Brandon Belt
• Francisco Peguero
• Ehire Adrianza
• Zach Wheeler
• Thomas Neal
• Eric Surkamp
• Brandon Crawford
• Gary Brown
• Jarrett Parker
• Charlie Culberson

It's very possible that I'll expand the list, however, and look at others like Hector Sanchez, Jorge Bucardo, Chuckie Jones, etc.

Without further ado, I'll begin with the guy at the top of every Giants prospect list....Brandon Belt. 

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Brandon Belt

Position: 1B

Opening Day Age: 22

John Sickels' Grade: A-

Fangraphs Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5

ZiPS Projection: .266/.357/.440

Belt is the cream of the crop when it comes to the Giants' farm system. He rapidly rose through the Giants' minor league system last year, raking to the tune of .352/.455/.620 slash line in A, AA, and AAA combined. Thanks to mechanical adjustments in his plate approach, the 2009 fifth-rounder was able to display a combination of excellent plate discipline, contact skills, and power. He even stole 22 bases last season; make no mistake, though -- as Marc Hulet of Fangraphs notes, "he succeeded on the base paths due to smart base running as opposed to blazing speed." Belt is the real deal, and should be ready to make an impact in the majors right away in 2011.

I think the following comments speak for themselves...

"Oh yeah, ZiPS loves Brandon Belt and at least in the short term has him as the best 1B prospect in baseball." - Dan Szymborski

"Totally legitimate in my opinion, and second-only to Eric Hosmer among first base prospects." - John Sickels

I've even admittedly gotten caught up in the hype, as I've already launched a Facebook fan page entitled "Brandon Belt: 2011 Rookie of the Year"

For more on Belt, check out his interview with Mychael Urban.