Derek Lowe has been fantastic in September/October with a 1.17 ERA in 30.2 innings pitched. His overall 2010 numbers are nothing special, though -- a solid 4.00 ERA, along with a decent 58.8% groundball rate -- still below his career average of 62.9%. Nevertheless, he has the veteran, postseason experience -- for what that's worth -- and he did well in his two starts against the Giants this year: 11.1 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 2.38 ERA. The Giants need to avoid the double play. Derek Lowe is a groundball pitcher, and if he exposes this Giants weakness, they won't be scoring many runs...
Tim Lincecum hasn't been too shabby down the stretch either...52 strikeouts and a 1.94 ERA in 41.2 innings pitched in September/October. He's had an up-and-down year in 2010 -- the 3.43 ERA is quite uncharacteristic -- but he still has swing-and-miss stuff: a 9.79 K/9 and his swinging strike percentage (11.0%) is better than it was last year, when he won the Cy Young Award (10.7%). He's pitching once again like a Cy Young Award winner, and, needless to say, will need to continue to do so in order for the Giants to do well in the playoffs.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aaron Rowand, it was announced, will be on the postseason roster. This is not too bad. He won't be used too often -- just as a pinch hitter, and not in highly critical situations. He's had his fair share of clutch home runs this year -- 11 home runs in 331 at-bats overall -- and if he provides just one or two key home runs in the postseason, it will be worth it. He's not going to hit for average. He's not going to steal bases. He's not going to cover good range in centerfield. He's not going to gun down any runners from the outfield. But he could -- just maybe -- hit a ball out of the park. If the Giants stay in the playoffs long enough to see the Phillies, Aaron Rowand might benefit from the park (Citizens Bank Park) that got him his 6 year/$50MM contract (.309 average with 27 home runs in 2007).
Barry Zito, on the other hand, likely won't make the playoffs. This is a smart decision, and frankly, it goes without saying. Madison Bumgarner has been a far better pitcher, and the bullpen has stronger left-handed pitchers -- Javier Lopez, Dan Runzler, Jeremy Affeldt.
Key to this game: Andres Torres. It's been said a lot, but he will be key as the table-setting catalyst. Especially with a groundball pitcher on the mound, speed is invaluable. He'll need to have his legs going in order to jumpstart this Giants offense, and help them avoid double plays. His power and defense will also come in handy...
Expectations:
- A big game out of Pablo Sandoval. It's a risky call, but he's been playing better lately (he went 7 for 18 on the Giants' final homestand) and he's hit well at home all year long (.330/.382/.520 slash line).
- Aubrey Huff will have a good game. It's his first postseason game in his 11-year career, and he's basically led the Giants' offense the whole season (especially when Posey was still in Fresno). He'll be pumped up, he had an RBI double in the critical game #162, so he's clearly able to contribute in these high-stakes games -- despite the fact that he hasn't yet played on this stage.
- And...Rowand likely won't face Lowe, but he does have great numbers against him. He's 11 for 23 (.478) against Lowe in his career. He probably won't face him though. So expect nothing.
- Big Time Timmy Jim. The Freak. Tim Lincecum. Expect, at the very least, a quality start out of him: minimum of six innings pitched, with a maximum of three earned runs.
- A clutch home run from somebody: Uribe? Posey? Burrell? Ross?
