With all those Panda hats sitting on heads at AT&T Park, visiting fans would never guess that the Giants' pudgy, but promising young third baseman was struggling to do what he does best: Hit the ball hard. Despite this marketing department success, productive Pablo Sandoval at-bats quickly became endangered, if not extinct. We continued to hope that the Panda was simply bamboozling us all, but the hot streak never happened. Silly puns aside, it was obvious that Pablo was not quite the same hitter he was in 2009. Peripheral stats show that this decline can be partially attributed to luck.
Whether you like it or not, luck is an essential aspect of baseball. Occasionally, popups will fall for bloop hits, screaming liners will become double plays, and wind-aided fly balls will barely clear the wall. By most standards, Pablo had an extremely lucky 2009 season, only to have his fortunes reversed in 2010. Both his mediocre batting average and minuscule power numbers were influenced by luck to an extent.
In 2009, the Panda sported a .350 batting average on balls in play and was even dubbed "Fat Ichiro" by some, due to his ability to seemingly guide the ball away from the fielders. That shiny number is considered unsustainable, unless the player in question happens to be breathtakingly fast. In 2010, this number regressed to a .291 mark, despite a similar line drive rate around 17%. League average BABIP hovers around .300, but most elite hitters are on the high end of the spectrum. At his best, Pablo should be right there with them. Illustrious sabermetrician Bill James projects a BABIP of .327 in 2011, a number very close to Sandoval's career average. A .300 batting average is well within the realm of possibility. If Pablo can change his approach to make more solid contact, the line drives will start to fall again.
After Pablo slugged 25 homers in 2009, including a mammoth shot on the last day of the season, Giants fans were naturally disappointed by the measly 13 home runs he hit in 2010. And while it was next to impossible to predict that Sandoval's power from the right side would simply disappear, there were some signs of possible regression. According to www.hittrackeronline.com, 7 of his 25 home runs in 2009 were classified as "just enough", meaning the ball barely cleared the wall. This is not an exceptional number until it is compared against the 2 JE's he had in 2010. Because Pablo actually had an increased fly ball rate by about 2%, it is safe to say that he was marginally unlucky with home runs. Bill James' projections predict 18 home runs, a number somewhat between Sandoval's two seasons.
Although it may have seemed like Pablo's terrible plate discipline contributed to his struggles, the truth is that it only became more noticeable. In 2009, he swung at 41.7% of balls outside the strike zone and was still largely successful. In 2010, this rate increased a mere 3%, but was widely blamed for his failures. In addition, one can make the argument that coaching actually made the situation worse. While only 38.3% of pitches to Pablo this year were actually thrown in the strike zone, a remarkable 61.7% of first pitches were strikes. Nobody can testify to what coaches were telling him, but at times, it certainly seemed like somebody was instructing him to take a pitch, even if it happened to be right down the middle. Many opposing pitchers learned to steal a strike before getting him to chase the rest of the at-bat.
Of course, misfortune can not be blamed for all of Pablo's disappointing season. He still needs to improve his approach and his health this offseason. This research was done to show unfaithful Giants fans that he is capable of bouncing back next year, just as Lincecum did this September. He does not need to be traded as soon as possible, nor does he need to go back down to Triple A. While he may never be the offensive monster we saw in 2009, he won't be the liability he was in 2010. Most experts tend to agree that his true talent level lies somewhere between these opposite seasons. Hopefully from now on, Pablo will be in control of his own destiny.
