Garza is younger, he throws harder, and he’s posted significantly better ERAs over the last several years in the more challenging league, so I understand why the perception of a large gap is there. But the reality is that these two are similar pitchers, and while one of them signed a one year, $4 million contract as a free agent this winter, the other is apparently going to cost a king’s ransom to acquire in trade, and then will earn more than that through arbitration anyway.I would have to disagree with some of these statements. Over his last three years with the Reds, Harang has averaged 153 innings with a 4.73 ERA. In comparison, Garza has posted three straight sub-4.00 ERA seasons while averaging 197 innings per year in the brutal AL East. In my mind, not even advanced stats can compensate for this vast difference in results. Dave's statistical analysis is insightful, but I don't see any evidence that makes me conclude that Garza will not approach ace-level in the National League. On the contrary, I've discovered that he is very similar to Matt Cain, who many consider to be a borderline ace.
If the Cubs look at Garza’s ERA and think he’s a potential ace in the NL, they’re mistaken. He’s a valuable innings eater, but he’s not a front line starter, and there were much cheaper, easier ways to acquire this kind of pitcher this winter without punting a big part of the farm system.
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| See the similarities? Wait a second... (Photos by AP) |
A casual baseball fan would be hard-pressed to find distinct similarities between Garza and Cain. The media often portrays the former as a volatile young arm who struggles to consistently harness his filthy repertoire, and the latter as a top-notch starter who has relinquished his overpowering fastball to achieve greater command of the strike zone. On the surface, it is easy to conclude that Cain has been the superior pitcher to this point in time. At age 26, he is almost a full year younger than Garza, but already has five quality seasons under his belt as opposed to three. In addition, he has already proven himself to be a workhorse, averaging nearly 220 innings with a sterling 3.27 ERA over the last three years.
From this point on, all pitching statistics used are three year averages (2008-2010).
Although not at first glance, the similarities between these two pitchers can be found in the form of rate statistics and batted ball data. While the press often speaks highly of Garza's swing-and-miss stuff, his strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) is actually very similar to Cain's. Conversely, many analysts like to attribute Cain's success to his improved control, but his walks per nine innings (BB/9) is not much different from the "erratic" Garza. The table below shows each pitcher's numbers over the 2008 - 2010 seasons.
Pitcher | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | WHIP |
7.10 | 3.04 | 2.34 | 1.25 | |
7.30 | 3.07 | 2.37 | 1.21 |
The differences, however, go far beyond rate statistics such as these. In fact, Garza and Cain's pitching styles are almost identical with regards to batted ball data. This means that they give up approximately the same amount of line drives, ground balls, and fly balls. Their percentages shown in the graph below.
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| Data courtesy of www.fangraphs.com |
Both Garza and Cain are classified as extreme fly ball pitchers, as they rank 7th and 4th respectively in fly ball percentage for pitchers with more than 450 innings over the last three years. Furthermore, they both lack the elite strikeout rates often seen in pitchers with strong flyball tendencies. Sabermetricians have shown that most elite pitchers succeed due elite strikeout or ground ball rates, but strangely, Garza and Cain exhibit neither. This is why their xFIPs (4.39 and 4.31) are routinely much higher than their ERAs (3.86 and 3.27). Why these two pitchers can consistently outperform statistical expectations year after year will be the focus of Part Two.
If you're not familiar with xFIP, think of it as expected ERA, or read about it here.
