In the first segment of the piece, I examined the similarities between two seemingly different pitchers, Matt Cain and Matt Garza, by referencing their comparable rate statistics and batted ball data, In this section, I will explain why both pitchers have an uncanny knack for outperforming their statistical projections.
Initially, I was under the impression that Garza and Cain were nearly identical, but upon closer scrutinization, I have come to another conclusion. Although both pitchers have consistently surpassed expectations, they have done so in markedly different ways. As evidenced over the last few years, Garza has learned to maximize the effects of his former home ballpark, while Cain has simply been a monster when it comes to preventing the long ball.
A friendly home park is essential to the success of a prolific fly ball pitcher. Because baseball stadiums are not size regulated, a fly out in one park could easily be a home run in another. Although nobody pitches exclusively at home, starting fifteen games in an advantageous environment is a significant boost for pitchers like Garza and Cain. Tropicana Field and AT&T Park are notorious pitcher havens, and "the Trop" actually ranked dead last in ESPN's 2010 park factors. While neither is considered to be a hitter's graveyard of Petco's caliber, both stadiums are undoubtedly beneficial to the men on the mound.
 |
| Data courtesy of www.fangraphs.com |
Over a five-year period spent mostly with the Rays, Garza has a home HR/FB rate of 7.6%, compared to a road mark of 11.1%. These numbers confirm my suspicions--he has benefited greatly from Tropicana Field's immense confines. In fact, Garza actually had a fly ball rate of 47.3% at home and 42.8% on the road in 2010, indicating that he tweaked his pitching style according to the ballpark he was in. Throughout his career, Garza has been particularly good at inducing weak fly balls, with 12.4% of his fly balls being classified as infield fly balls. Despite his impressive numbers over the last few years, Garza's road splits look alarmingly close to his mediocre peripherals. It will be interesting to watch how he transitions from the warehouse-like "Trop" to the ivy-covered walls of Wrigley Field. Albert Lyu did a outstanding job covering this topic in a recent post at www.fangraphs.com.
Cain's cynics mislead people to believe that he is dependent on the large dimensions of his home ballpark. They attribute much of his success to AT&T Park, even though he is just as relentless away from it. If the chilly San Francisco temperatures are helping Cain to keep the baseball in the park, it sure isn't apparent. He owns a career HR/FB 6.7% at home and 7.4% mark on the road, a very marginal difference. While most pitchers are lucky to put up figures like that every couple of years, Cain has been doing it annually since he broke into the big leagues back in 2006. Like Garza, he is adept at forcing soft contact, sporting a 12.9% infield fly ball per fly ball rate. Pundits have absolutely no foundation when they try to convince others that Cain is vastly overrated because he pitches in San Francisco.
 |
| Tampa Bay's dynamic outfield |
It is worth mentioning that the Rays and the Giants both have above average defenses, ranking in 7th and 2nd respectively in 2010 team UZR. Even more impressive, however, is the dynamic collection of outfielders the two feature. Over the last few years, the Rays have routinely trotted out speedsters Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, and Ben Zobrist. Even with Upton's down year defensively, the three combined for 24.7 UZR in 2010. On the Giants' side, Andres Torres nearly eclipsed that total with a ridiculous 21.2 UZR, while Nate Schierholtz added 6.4 UZR in limited playing time. But while Garza has always benefited from a flashy outfield behind him, Cain has had to deal with the likes of Pat Burrell, Jose Guillen, and even Barry Bonds in recent years. It's not a tremendous difference, but most experts will tell you that Garza has had the advantage in terms of overall defensive play behind him.
Even though Garza pitched for a highly competitive team in the hellish AL East, he has been assisted by a cavernous home park and a top-notch outfield to complement his fly ball tendencies. I believe he will continue to be the same pitcher in 2011, as his transition to the inferior league may be negated by the swirling winds of Wrigley Park. On the contrary, Cain has shown he can legitimately induce weak fly balls wherever he pitches, despite the common perception that he is better suited to AT&T Park than he is to other ballparks. If for some reason, he does not resign with the Giants after the 2012 season, he will be just as successful with another team.
Visit Sabermetrics Library for more information on HR/FB, and other advanced stats.
