Now comes my turn. But first, a brief intro: prospect lists vary in the system by which they evaluate players. Some focus on ultimate potential of a player, while others give more weight to a prospect's proximity to the majors. I gave consideration to both factors, but not necessarily with equal weight. My list is unconventional, but whatever. Prospect lists allow for creativity, and different points of view, so this is how my list came out. There are some notables that didn't make the cut: Tommy Joseph, Charlie Culberson, Jorge Bucardo, and Jarrett Parker. I also slipped in a couple of sleepers, and I'm high on some players (Surkamp, Neal, Crawford) while I'm low on others (Adrianza, Brown). I'll explain why I left out certain people if you really want to know. Just drop a comment.
Also, I feel like I should just post this quote from Conor Dowley, who ran the SweetSpot blog today:
Here's the deal: no prospect is perfect. They all have flaws. Some are less visible than others, but they're there on every single guy. If you want to avoid being crushed, you have to be able to see the flaws.This especially rings true with the Giants.
Anyway, here goes:
1. Brandon Belt
I don't think there's any question about this one. The guy has great hitting skills, having posted a .352/.455/.620 slash line across three levels of the minors in 2010. He displays superb plate discipline, above-average power, and can run the bases really well, in spite of the fact that he has average speed. His defense is also marvelous, having received much praise (including from J.T. Snow), and he even has a good arm (as he was a pitcher back in college days). To put it simply, he's gifted in many aspects of the game, and should be ready to make an impact in the majors this year. The one possible flaw is that he has limited experience at AAA, having played in only 13 games there; but he'll probably start the season there anyway, and all signs point to Belt succeeding there and subsequently on the major league level.
2. Zach Wheeler
Wheeler leaves me in awe for two simple reasons: his groundball rate, and his strikeout rate. He posted a 63% groundball rate in low-A last year, and combined it with 10.74 K/9; that's simply incredible. And here's another interesting fact: in 58.2 innings, the guy didn't allow a single home run. With that said, I'd like to see his walk rate go down a bit (5.83 BB/9). As Otis Anderson noted, the Giants have quite a track record of drafting pitchers (Jonathan Sanchez, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Brian Wilson, and Sergio Romo, to name a few), so there's no reason not to trust them in the case of Zach Wheeler.
3. Francisco Peguero
Initially, I hated Peguero as a prospect. His walk rate disgusts me, as he posted a 3.3% BB rate in 538 PAs last year at high-A. And there's another thing I don't like about him: his BABIP was .382...that's quite high, even for a guy with plus speed, so it casts some doubt on whether he'll be able to maintain his high batting average -- which is actually his biggest asset. Nevertheless, I have come to like what he brings to the table. First of all, I like that he's a speedy guy, having stolen 40 bases in 122 games in 2010 (although he needs to work on it -- he was caught stealing 22 times). This will prove useful for an organization that currently lacks speed on the major league level. What I like most about Peguero, though, is what I've heard from the people who know what they're talking about. Jim Callis had this to say, when I asked him about Peguero: "He might be the most underrated prospect in the system. He's only 22, and his power is going to manifest himself more as he gets more experienced."
4. Thomas Neal
I'm admittedly high on Neal. But maybe for good reason. He absolutely raked at San Jose in 2009, putting up a .337/.431/.579 slash line. And he wasn't too shabby last year either, hitting .291/.359/.440 in AA Richmond, which is notorious for suppressing power numbers. Neal's biggest issue is possibly the mental aspect of the game, and he's said that himself many times. When I asked him about his specific goals for the season, he said "I think my main goal this season is to put together consistent at bats when hitting with runners in scoring position." This is key, because he gets too eager in these situations, and really, that's the biggest offensive issue he must overcome. If he can truly succeed in doing so, he could legitimately be the Giants' starting left fielder in 2012. His defense should be serviceable in left field, as he covers good range considering his size, and he's got a strong arm. Oh yeah, and Oliver projection system likes Neal, too.
5. Gary Brown
The Giants' first-round pick from 2010, Brown has blazing speed. In addition, he's got stellar defensive skills in centerfield. However, his bat presents some issues. I mean, just look at this ugly swing. Some like his bat, saying he has gap power and could be an above-average hitter. I'd like to see more from him offensively before I'm convinced. I also don't like that he has a poor walk rate, having walked 4.1% of the time in his last season at CSU Fullerton. For a guy with speed, walking is an incredibly useful skill, and well, Brown doesn't possess that skill. Conclusion: I'd like to see more.
6. Eric Surkamp
I am high on Surkamp. For one specific reason: his K/BB. The guy racked up 9.6 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 at San Jose this year. A guy who can strike batters out at a high clip and also maintain great control is, well, useful. There are a couple issues, which I hope don't end up impeding his progression. The first is that he incurred a hip injury last season, which could obviously present some problems; secondly, his fastball velocity isn't outstanding, generally sitting in the high-80s. It'll be interesting to see how he develops, but for now, I'm quite optimistic. He should have success in the pitcher-friendly AA Eastern League in 2011.
7. Brandon Crawford
Crawford's defense has been major-league ready for quite some time now, so his bat is the obvious issue here. He hasn't been terribly impressive offensively, having managed to hit just .241/.337/.375 in AA Richmond last year. The main issue with Crawford is contact, as he struck out in about 26% of his at-bats. Nevertheless, the offensive standards for shortstops these days are quite low, and I don't think it's too hard to believe Crawford has the potential to meet them. His on-base ability is promising, and he has solid speed. If he can bump up the contact rate, I think he'll be a pretty useful shortstop.
8. Chuckie Jones
Jones, a seventh-round pick, is quite intriguing. He's supposedly an extremely athletic guy, and I'll call him my "sleeper" pick. He strikes out a lot (in his 165 AB sample in the AZL, he struck out 61 times); however, he did produce in the AZL, posting a .279/.360/.461 slash line. Obviously, I need to see more of him as he progresses. But for now, I like what he brings, and have optimistic expectations. He's quite young (he'll turn 19 in July this year), and as When the Giants Come to Town notes, could have five-tool potential.
9. Heath Hembree
As crazy as it might sound, I think Hembree's ceiling is as a frontline closer. He sits in the 94-99 mph range on his fastball, and has a nice slider to accompany it. He could move through the system very quickly, and has already had success, striking out 22 and walking zero in 11 innings pitched in the AZL last year. I'm excited to watch how he progresses.
10. Ehire Adrianza
I really don't want to rank Adrianza this low. I love what he brings to the table, with excellent defensive skills and above-average speed. I especially like that in a shortstop. But his offense is just atrocious. Here's what Callis said when I asked him about Adrianza:
He hit .256/.333/.348 in the Cal League last year, the best hitting environment in the minors. He's still young but he's not hitting the ball with any authority, which is going to be a bigger problem as he moves up. No big league pitcher is going to fear him--they can throw the ball down the middle and the worst that's going to happen is he'll hit a single. As good as he is defensively, I'm not confident he'll hit enough to be an everyday players.It's hard not to agree with that assessment. Adrianza's bat is far from serviceable, and I don't see him improving to the point that he's actually useful. Initially, I thought of his ceiling as Elvis Andrus. Sure, not the same speed. But the same bat, and the same stellar defensive skills. And hey, maybe a few steals here and there. Now, I'm inclined to think his ceiling is Cezar Izturis. Stellar defensive skills, still, but an absolutely horrid bat. And that's his ceiling. I really hate that I'm so low on Adrianza, too, because I love his defense. He just can't get it done with the bat, though.
