Yesterday, I purchased the 2011 Baseball America Prospect Handbook, and read through the Giants section within an hour. Naturally, I had some questions, so who better to ask then Jim Callis, executive editor of Baseball America? I'd like to once again thank him for taking the time to participate, and shed some light on the Giants farm system.
1. Baseball America writers Will Lingo and John Manuel had Giants prospect Brandon Belt ranked at 22 and 26 respectively, whereas you had him all the way back at 40 on your Top 50 Prospects list. Can you explain your reasoning behind this?
I just want to see more. I've been covering Belt as a prospect since he was a Texas high school lefthander, and after he became more of a hitter at San Jacinto JC and Texas. He had a great year, no question, and I know the Giants adjusted his stance to bring out the best in him. I just want to see him continue to hit next year before I jump fully on board. He's a first baseman (I know he may try to play the outfield), and first basemen really have to hit to be stars.
2. Can you give me a sense of Francisco Peguero's power? I've read numerous times that he displays a great power-speed combination, but my thinking is that his speed possibly allows him to stretch hits into extra bases, inflating his power numbers...how legitimate is his power? I mean, after all, he has drawn comparisons to Vladimir Guerrero.
He might be the most underrated prospect in the system. He's only 22, and his power is going to manifest himself more as he gets more experienced. Those Guerrero comps are probably a little overstated, because he's not going to be that kind of home run hitter, but he should have at least average power.
3. From what I've read, Ehire Adrianza projects as a gold-glove shortstop with plus speed, but his offense clearly has some issues. How far is he from hitting at an acceptable level, such that he could be a serviceable starting shortstop in the majors?
He's clearly one of the best defensive shortstop prospects in baseball, but the bat is a huge question mark. He hit .256/.333/.348 in the Cal League last year, the best hitting environment in the minors. He's still young but he's not hitting the ball with any authority, which is going to be a bigger problem as he moves up. No big league pitcher is going to fear him--they can throw the ball down the middle and the worst that's going to happen is he'll hit a single. As good as he is defensively, I'm not confident he'll hit enough to be an everyday players.
4. Heath Hembree dazzled in 12 games in the Arizona Fall League, striking out 22 batters in 11 innings and allowing zero walks. This is a very small sample size, so can you give me a sense of his true talent level?
I wouldn't get too hung up on AFL stats, but Hembree has a great arm. He throws in the mid-90s and has a hard slider. I could see him helping the Giants very quickly as a reliever.
5. With his incredible control and above-average strikeout rates, what's holding Eric Surkamp back from ranking higher in the farm system? His fastball velocity?
Actually, he's probably more underrated than Peguero. I like Surkamp a lot. He sits in the high 80s with his fastball, but he's lefthanded, has plus secondary pitches and commands it all. He won't be an ace, but the Giants don't need one, and I think he can be a solid No. 3 or 4 starter.
6. How do Gary Brown and Francisco Peguero compare? They both seem to be similar in that they have plus speed, great outfield range, and sub-par plate discipline.
Different types of guys. Brown has top-of-the-line speed but not much power, while Peguero isn't a blazer but has a solid power-speed combination. Brown is a potential Gold Glove center fielder, while Peguero can play center but may fit better in right field.
7. How much value, as a prospect, will Tommy Joseph lose if he converts to first base?
Anyone loses a lot of value if they move from catcher to first base, just because of the relative scarcity (or lack thereof) of the positions. He'd also be a righthanded-hitting first baseman, which might be about the easiest thing to find. That said, I do like his bat and could see him hitting his way to the majors even if he moves to first base.
8. How do you think Ehire Adrianza compares to Elvis Andrus? Andrus seems to be a lot faster, but from what I've read, they seem to share great defensive skills and mediocre offensive skills.
I think it's fair to call Adrianza a poor man's Andrus.
9. Do you expect to see Conor Gillaspie in the majors at all this season?
I've always liked him, but I thought he'd hit more than he has as a pro. I could see him kicking into another gear finally and earning a callup, but really, I don't think he's much in the 2011 plans barring injury problems at the big league level. More likely we see him in San Francisco in 2012.
10. Do you envision Chuckie Jones moving up in the prospect rankings after this year? He posted decent numbers in the AZL, and is still quite young.
He definitely has the upside, with above-average speed, power potential and arm strength. He may need some time to adjust to pro pitching after coming from a small Missouri high school and striking out 61 times in 46 games. But he's one of my favorite sleepers in the system.
