In the post-Bonds era, the Giants have been infamous for their free-swinging ways. Over the last three years, they've managed a team 7.3% walk rate and .317 OBP, good for fourth worst in each category. As you'd expect, the Giants were closer to "middle of the pack" in 2010 in terms of reaching base, but they still lead the league with a team 32.3% O-Swing%. In comparison, the Red Sox and the Yankees led both leagues with percentages under 25%.
It's easy to blame guys like Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina for the Giants' O-Swing% problems over the last few years, but in reality, the whole team has a free-swinging mentality. In 2010, veterans like Aubrey Huff, Freddy Sanchez, and Juan Uribe posted some of the highest O-Swing%'s of their careers. This didn't surprise me all that much, until I noticed something else -- all three players posted walk rates that were well above their career averages.
Huff is by far the strangest case. With all that's been written about his so-called "career year" in 2010, it's interesting that this hasn't brought this up yet. After maintaining a walk rate around 8.0% for most of his career, Huff blasted his previous high out of the water with a spectacular 12.4% mark in his first season by the Bay. In addition, his O-Swing% was also a career high at 28.9%, 2% above his previous peak, and nearly 5% above his career average. To top it off, his O-Contact% of 70.8% was about 10% than normal.
Say what you will about the National League or the lineup surrounding him, because Huff's inexplicable trend also extended to two of his infield mates. Admittedly, Sanchez and Uribe's stats show much less variance from their career averages, but their numbers are all moving in the same direction. Rather than confuse you with my verbose writing, I've decided to make a nifty chart showing these strange disparities.
'10 BB% | Tot. BB% | '10 O-Swing% | Tot. O-Swing% | '10 O-Contact% | Tot. O-Contact% | |
A. Huff | 12.4% | 8.3% | 28.9% | 24.1% | 70.8% | 60.8% |
F. Sanchez | 6.7% | 4.9% | 34.4% | 30.9% | 73.2% | 71.8% |
J. Uribe | 7.8% | 5.6% | 36.0% | 29.3% | 59.4% | 54.7% |
I'm sure there are some of you who are thinking that I'm blowing this all out of proportion. Is a 2% increase in walk rate that big of a difference? Let's simplify things here for a moment. A 2% increase in walk rate equates to exactly 12 walks in 600 plate appearances, which is about a full season's worth. If we were to take away Juan Uribe's 12 walks, his OBP would drop from a respectable .310 to a replacement level .289 mark. Obviously, this method is not completely sound, but it does show that a 2% increase is a significant difference over a full season.
So what does this all mean? Usually, swinging at more balls leads to more strikeouts, not more walks. The negative correlation between O-Swing% and BB% has been proved before. It would be easy to attribute these deviations to small sample size, but my gut feeling tells me that there's a reason behind this. Although I don't have a definite answer at this point in time, I have come up with two theories that can reasonably explain the simultaneous rise in O-Swing% and BB%.
Theory #1: Possibly, the system by which O-Swing % is measured changes from year to year, causing us to perceive an increase when, in actuality, there is none, or not a significant increase at least. So in essence, possibly the we are observing a change in how it is measured/calibrated, rather than an actual change in their plate approach.
Theory #2: Some of the hitters are fouling off more balls that are out of the strike zone in order to tire out the opposing pitcher or work a walk.
Theory #3: Some of the hitters are doing a better job of punishing mistake pitches out of the strike zone, but are being patient for the most part.
Both #2 and #3 are somewhat of a stretch, but it's definitely something I'll keep an eye on as the season begins. If you have any theories of your own, or would like to point out a mistake, I encourage you to do so in the comment section below.
