Here are the Giants' picks: 29, 49, 86, 116, and then for rounds 4-50: 147, 173, 199, 225, and so on (order repeats).
The 29th pick is, well, the second-to-last pick in the first round (not including compensation picks), and it's actually significantly worse, on average, then overall picks 1-10. As research has shown, there is, on average, a huge drop-off in career major-league value after the first ten or fifteen overall picks.
Here's how 29th overall picks have done in the majors (by rWAR):
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As you can see, there are a few standouts. But overall, only half of those guys have reached in the majors (still a relatively high rate for draft picks, but a big step down from the 84% of 10th overall picks that reached the majors).
Since 1995, only two 29th overall picks have reached the majors, two guys you've probably heard of: Adam Wainwright and Carlos Quentin. Beyond them, there are a few other notables. George Brett, who was drafted 29th overall in 1971, accumulated 85.0 rWAR over his career. Bill Swift, Jay Payton, and Dave Kingman are also probably names you recognize.
Interestingly enough, the Giants also had the 29th overall pick in the 2007 draft, a compensation pick from the Mets for signing free agent Moises Alou. With it, they took Wendell Fairley, who's currently playing in high-A at the age of 23 (whereas the typical good minor league prospect is in AAA at that age).
Point is, temper your expectations. Even in the first round, future success is far from guaranteed, and, as recent years have shown, can be pretty hard to find.
The Giants have a great scouting department, so hopefully they'll somehow manage to nab a Jay Payton, Adam Wainwright, or -- dare I say -- George Brett, rather than a Kevin Romine. But it's a crapshoot.
There have been a few mock drafts posted around the internet... Here are some of them, along with their projected pick for the San Francisco Giants:
- Minor League Ball: Henry Owens, LHP, HS
- Baseball America: Robert Stephenson, RHP, HS
- Prospect Junkies: Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech
- MLB Bonus Baby: Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
Some other names I've seen thrown out there in connection with the Giants are Joshua Osich, Phil Evans, and Kolten Wong.
The Giants' farm system is pretty thin in terms of pitching at the moment (relative to how it's been in recent years), and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them select a pitcher in the first round.
Anyway, just some food for thought. I'm looking forward to what's been regarded as one of the deepest MLB drafts in years.
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