Carlos Beltran traded to the Giants for Zack Wheeler and cash

After seemingly endless speculation, Carlos Beltran has been traded to the Giants along with cash for Zach Wheeler (almost officially). Beltran is hitting .289/.391/.513 on the season, and obviously adds a lot to an offense desperately in need of some help. Per Fangraphs, he's been worth 3.9 wins above replacement already this year.

At first, I was strongly against trading Wheeler for Beltran. Then again, here's what Andrew Baggarly just wrote:

As for Wheeler, if he’s indeed the big piece, the Giants’ willingness to trade him would indicate one of two things: Their desperation to add offense has risen, or, more likely, their internal evaluations of his stuff/ceiling are not quite what they were when they drafted him 10th overall two years ago. Wheeler’s strikeout rate is high, but he hasn’t exactly Bumgarnered his way through the minor leagues.

Essentially, the Giants are trading a high-ceiling pitching prospect for a rental that will (hopefully) add a lot to a struggling offense. As I've said before, "prospects are no guarantee" is not a justification for overpaying in value. Kurt Ainsworth wasn't a guarantee. Neither was Jesse Foppert. Or Jerome Williams. Or Tim Alderson, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Boof Bonser, Madison Bumgarner, etc. Many prospects bust, some don't. Duh.

Wheeler's a risk. The question is: is the risk worth it?

This move was made to improve the Giants' chances of performing well in the playoffs. Beltran clearly adds a lot to the offense, but in making this trade, the Giants are hoping that he happens to hit well over those 50 or so postseason plate appearances, and that that's what puts the Giants over the top in terms of their chances of winning the World Series.

I don't know if Wheeler is worth the amount that Beltran improves the Giants' chances of a repeat -- if that makes any sense. I'm stuck in the middle right now, leaning toward no. But I'm cautiously placing my trust in Brian Sabean. I don't like this deal. I think the Giants overpaid in value. Yet at the same time, I like Beltran. And Sabean's willingness to trade Wheeler indicates that perhaps -- as Baggs speculated -- their internal evaluations indicate that his value has fallen.

So there it is. Don't like the deal, but I'll give Sabean the benefit of the doubt. And I can't wait to see Beltran  in a Giants uniform. I'm just hoping he'll stay healthy, and continue to rake.

I will say, this little chart from Baseball Prospectus scares me to death: