Saturday, July 30, 2011

Farewell, Thomas Neal

Just got home from work, so I finally have time to comment on this Thomas Neal/Orlando Cabrera trade. My reaction: I don't like it. At all.

For fun, here are some hand-plucked ZiPS rest-of-season projected weighted on-base averages:

Player A: .305
Player B: .302
Player C: .301
Player D: .286

  • A is Mike Fontenot, who has suddenly been treated like the worst player in the world. He's not. Trust me. 
  • B is Bill Hall, who was just DFA'd for the second time this season.
  • C is Miguel Tejada, who has been -- at least according to Fangraphs' implementation of wins above replacement -- a replacement level player in 2011. 
  • D is Orlando Cabrera. Oh, the excitement. 

Aside from the fact that he sucks at hitting, Cabrera is pretty clearly no longer a shortstop (not that the other three players are shortstops either).

Defensive metrics are always iffy, but Fan Scouting Reports have him at -8 runs above average the past two full seasons at shortstop, and there's obviously a reason that he's played all of 15 innings there this season. In 2009, Cabrera had an aggregate defensive rating of -20, though it was at a more acceptable -2 last season. Nevertheless, I'm inclined to believe his true defensive skill is more 2009 than 2010.

In any event, it's clear that Cabrera is a replacement level shortstop at best. For the record, Fangraphs' implementation of WAR has him at -0.6 already on the season, while Baseball Prospectus has him at -0.8 WARP, and Baseball-Reference has him at -0.1

So yeah. That's what he is. Nothing. And the Giants gave up something to acquire him.

Thomas Neal was ranked by Baseball America as the Giants' 7th-best prospect entering this season. While he's put up disappointing power numbers this season, considering that he's a corner outfielder, he's still got upside, and he's at least posted good on-base numbers this season.

One thing is clear: Neal is undoubtedly more valuable than Cabrera.

I absolutely dread the Cabrera era (hey, that rhymes); here's to me hopefully being wrong.