Probable pitchers:
Tuesday: Tim Lincecum v. Vance Worley
Wednesday: Barry Zito v. Cole Hamels
Thursday: Matt Cain v. Kyle Kendrick
I asked Peter of the Good Phight several questions about the Phillies to preview the upcoming series. Check out his answers after the jump...
1) What should we expect from Vance Worley?
Damned if I know. Worley was an OK prospect coming into the season. Lots of reasonable people thought his ceiling was that of a solid #4 starter on a good team. Needless to say, he's exceeded expectations.
Even though Worley is playing well above his head and outside where his peripheral stats indicate he should be, if and when he "regresses" to his actual abilities, his 4.09 SIERA, 4.01 xFIP, and 3.21 FIP are those of a nice major league pitcher.
2) Jimmy Rollins will be a free agent after this year. Do you see him re-signing with the Phillies? Could the Giants make a run at him?
The Giants have long been a rumored destination for Rollins after his current contract. And it makes sense -- he's a Bay Area native, and the Giants certainly have a need at shortstop. The problem for the Giants is that the Phillies still have a need at the position as well, and no one really on the horizon in the minors who poses a threat to take over.
Rollins is quietly having a very nice bounceback season, posting a .268/.338/.398 line in a deflated run scoring environment. At 32 years old, teams will be wise to keep any contracts with Rollins at three years or below, but he's shown he has lots left in the tank.
3) The Phillies seem to be among the top suitors for Carlos Beltran. Is he necessary -- i.e. how much of an upgrade would he be for the Phils?
Of course Beltran is having a great season and would instantly become the best hitter in the Phillies lineup (apologies to the en fuego Chase Utley). But it's really a matter of how much better he makes a team that has the best record in the National League by a long stretch and is the favorite for home field advantage throughout the postseason.
If you subscribe to the idea that the playoffs have just slightly better odds than a crapshoot, I don't think it makes sense to trade too much for a guy who's only going to improve your odds of winning a championship by a few points. The Phillies, like the Giants, have the resources and infrastructure to be competitive every year if they manage their personnel properly. Trading a top prospect like Domonic Brown for two months of Beltran is sheer lunacy.
4) When Joe Blanton and Roy Oswalt were healthy, it was pretty clear that the Phils had a better rotation than the Giants; but with those two out, and Ryan Vogelsong emerging as a quality starter this season, do you think the Phils still have the upper edge?
I still prefer the Phillies, but not by too much. And it's predicated mostly on the ability of starters Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels to pitch deep into ballgames and miss bats.
Halladay (7.74), Lee (4.93) and Hamels (4.62) are first, second, and third in the league, respectively, in strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Phillies' pitching staff as a whole has a 3.03 K/BB ratio, which is better than all but seventeen other single pitchers in the National League.
The Giants have a terrific pitching staff, and the bullpen gets a notable edge, but the Phillies' pitching staff overall is historically great.
5) What's up with Ryan Howard? He's hit .198/.296/.314 over the last 30 days (6/24-7/23), and seems to be having a disappointing season overall.
Ryan Howard has historically played his best baseball in August and September. And he has been atrocious over the past month or so. He's an incredibly streaky player caught in one of his bad streaks right now. Pitchers seem to have wised up and started throwing him more off-speed stuff, resulting in a lot less good contact but an increased walk rate.
Howard has shown an ability to adapt before. Hopefully he will again.
