Monday, November 15, 2010

A Closer Look at the Rookie of the Year Balloting

Player Name, Team, WAR1st2nd3rdPoints
Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants 3.92092129
Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves 5.09202107
Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals 3.2111624
Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins 2.421518
Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates 1.913
Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs 2.033
Ike Davis, New York Mets 3.422
Jose Tabata, Pittsburgh Pirates 2.011
Jonny Venters, Atlanta Braves 1.711

As you can see, for the most part, the voting was consistent with the Wins Above Replacement each player produced. There are three exceptions, only two of which were significant differences.

The first exception was Buster Posey, who likely would've produced the most WAR had he played the entire season -- of course, it's not necessarily fair to assume this, but based on the way he played for most of the season, it's fair to say that he was the winner. If I was a Braves fan, I would probably complain that Heyward got snubbed. But since I'm a Giants fan, I can overlook Heyward's impressive walk rate and instead marvel at the fact that Posey hits with power to all sides of the field, all while calling a good game behind the plate.

Now, the second exception is really not that significant at all. Neil Wakler produced less WAR than Tabata and Castro, but his 1.9 is close enough to their respective 2.0s that it's not really a big deal.

The third exception, however, is probably the biggest snub. Ike Davis had the best UZR among first basemen (10.1) all while putting up a nice slash line of .264/.351/.440 with 17 home runs and a nice walk rate of 12%. This accumulated to 3.4 WAR, much better than that of Castro (2.0), Walker (1.9), and even Jaime Garcia.

Now, I'm not saying that the voting should have gone by WAR. Personally, I think Jaime Garcia deserved third place in the Rookie of the Year voting, stepping up out of nowhere as a very solid number three starter. However, Ike Davis was clearly overlooked. It's easy not to be impressed by his .264 batting average, but he had just one less home run than Heyward, and his walk rate (12%) is comparable to Heyward's rate of 14%. Not to mention that Davis had the second-best defense among first basemen.

I guess I would've wanted Davis to slip up their in the voting between Sanchez and Garcia. Are Sanchez's numbers really better than those of Davis?

Gaby Sanchez: .273/.341/.448, -0.1 UZR, 19 home runs.
Ike Davis: .264/.351/.440, 10.1 UZR, 19 home runs.

Their numbers are quite similar. I think Davis deserved more votes, however, due to his far superior defense.

As a Giants fan, however, I must point out the lack of recognition for Madison Bumgarner. It makes sense, I suppose, that he was left off the ballot, because he by no means deserves a third-place vote, second-place vote, or even first-place vote for his regular season performance among this stacked rookie class. However, if the ballot was given after the postseason, and was for the top five rookies, Bumgarner definitely deserved a nod.

Whatever. I can't complain. Buster Posey won, and rightfully so. I was admittedly nervous..It's hard not to be, with all the hype surrounding Jason Heyward (the J-Hey kid). But now Giants fans can finally sit back and reminisce about what's been possibly the greatest season in the San Francisco era of this Giants franchise. A Rookie of the Year Award for Buster Posey, and a World Series title.