Is Carlos Pena a Good Fit for the San Francisco Giants?

Mychael Urban thinks that Carlos Pena would be a good fit for the Giants:

"I’m not saying that Pena, 32, is a rock star. I’m just saying his overall package, which includes a relentlessly upbeat personality that’s played well in every clubhouse he’s inhabited, represents a decent Plan B should Huff find a better deal elsewhere -- and perhaps even if Huff comes back and gets moved to a corner OF spot."

I don't so much have a problem with that statement as I do this one:

"After all, Pena’s a year younger than Huff was when he signed with the Giants coming off a down year, and look at the way Huff bounced back. Who’s to say Pena, who likely won’t command a salary any bigger than the reported $3 million Huff got for 2010, can’t be the Huff of 2011?"

Aubrey Huff and Carlos Pena are two pretty different hitters. Mainly, Huff strikes out about half as often as Pena. As a result, Huff usually hits for a decent average, whereas Pena seems to always hover around the Mendoza line. And Pena, as opposed to Huff -- whose best season arguably came in 2008, two years before coming to the Giants -- has shown a steady decline in numbers over the last several seasons:

Year	G	BA	OBP	SLG
2007	148	.282	.411	.627
2008	139	.247	.377	.494
2009	135	.227	.356	.537
2010	144	.196	.325	.407

Many people think that Pena will command around a 2yr/$16 million salary. Is that low-risk? Not by any means. I'd personally be surprised to see a contract that big, given how crowded the first base market is (Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, Aubrey Huff, Russell Branyan, Derrek Lee, Nick Johnson, Adam LaRoche, Lance Berkman, and Lyle Overbay to name a few...); but if this is the kind of deal he's looking for, it would not be wise to go after him.

The young phenom Brandon Belt has worked his way through the Giants farm system, and will likely be in the majors in 2010. He'll either be playing outfield or first base, and having Pena (along with Huff, Torres, Ross, Schierholtz, Rowand, Ishikawa) could make it very difficult for the Giants to clear some room for the promising star.

Carlos Pena

The other clear problem is that given Pena's power numbers, Bruce Bochy might get the urge to stick him in the middle of the lineup. That could prove disastrous, as sticking a guy who strikes out once every three at-bats could greatly hinder the production of the middle of the lineup. I picture Pena stepping to the plate -- possibly in the cleanup spot -- in a key two-out situation and going down whiffing on three straight pitches. While he has potential, the contract he could command, his steady decline in production, and the promise of Brandon Belt are all reasons that I'd be cautious of signing Pena.

Maybe if the Giants don't resign Huff (which I doubt will happen), Pena could be considered. But I find the notion that he could be a good option "perhaps even if Huff comes back and gets moved to a corner OF spot" to be a little ridiculous.

This, of course, doesn't even take into account whether or not he would perform well at AT&T Park. For a left-handed hitter whose value is almost entirely reliant on hitting home runs, that giant right-field wall might not be so great for him. It worked for Huff and Bonds, who do/did more than just hit home runs. But I'm skeptical as to whether or not AT&T Park would pan out well for Pena.