Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Miguel Tejada: Giants 2011 Shortstop Option?

The Giants are reportedly one of the teams currently interested in Miguel Tejada. So...what say we delve into the prospect of signing the 37-year-old...

At first, one might think that Tejada provides at least a decent amount of power...after all, the guy has reached the 30-homer plateau four times throughout his career. This, however, is no longer the case. Even for a shortstop, his power is average at best. His 2010 ISO of .112 indicates that he has the same amount of power as Marco Scutaro and Cliff Pennington. In all fairness, though, it was a career-low, and likely an outlier. His Bill James projections see him having an ISO of .136 in 2011, power closer to that of Jhonny Peralta. Nevertheless, it's nothing special, even for a shortstop. Average at best. He's good for 10-15 home runs, though, and can hit his share of doubles.

The one great thing Tejada does have is that he makes contact a lot. His K rate of 10.5% in 2010 was extremely low (although that's often the case with shortstops). If you want a guy who constantly puts the ball in play, Tejada will do that. He doesn't have the speed to beat out a lot of infield hits, however, and doesn't hit the ball with the same force that he used to.

The major problem that I have with Tejada: he doesn't walk. Over the past three years, he's posted walk rates of 3.6%, 2.8%, and 4.4%. This could greatly exacerbate the Giants' overall problems with low walk rates. Walk rates this low are atrocious, especially considering he doesn't have any big numbers to outweigh it.

As for Tejada's defense, he's pretty mediocre. He has a career UZR/150 of -3.4 at shortstop. In 216 games at short over the past two seasons, he's posted a UZR of -12.3 with -14.2 RngR. He just can't cover much range out there. He never has, and going into his age-37 season, one can't expect him to.

There is one standout when examining Tejada. He is extremely durable. He played in 162 games in each season from 2001-2006. Over the past three seasons, he's played in 472 games. If he's good for one thing, it's being out there in the field every single day.

So to sum it up, Tejada's defense is pretty mediocre. His power has declined to a point where it's just below average for a shortstop. He rarely walks. He can't cover much range at short. He's pretty much only good for two things: making contact with the ball, and playing in a lot of games. Beyond that, he's just pretty mediocre.

Tejada, however, might be a good option with a little bit of luck. If the Giants sign him to one of those bargain contracts -- the maximum risk should be 1yr/$3MM -- and Tejada has a resurgence, much like that which they saw out of Huff or Burrell, he could just be worth it. He's probably good for anywhere between 1-3 WAR. For $3MM, that's worth it.

Do I want Tejada? Not really. I'd rather have Juan Uribe, Jason Bartlett, Marco Scutaro, J.J. HardyOrlando Cabrera. But if they can manage to get him on one of those bargain contracts, he could just surprise people. He should not be a player that the Giants are considering at this point, but as a last-minute cheap option? I say go for it.

The one thing I must say is that Tejada is due for a resurgence. He had an uncharacteristically poor .269/.312/.381 slash line in 2010, and will likely bounce back. He won't be incredible. But he might just bounce back to the point where he's actually a legitimately good option for starting shortstop. With a little bit of luck, he could be a decent shortstop.