Notes: Willie McCovey, Pablo Sandoval, Thomas Neal

• First of all, happy 73rd birthday to Willie McCovey, a true Giants great!
• According to Henry Schulman, Pablo Sandoval's conditioning is going well:

"Aurilia lives in Phoenix and told me today he saw Pablo at a shopping mall just before Christmas. Sandoval told him he had lost 17 pounds."

• Speaking of preseason "best shape of their lives" stories, I think this article is relevant. You might recall Aaron Rowand showing up to Spring Training in the best shape of his life, but his 2010 numbers certainly did not reflect an improvement. 
• Thomas Neal, a prospect that I looked at recently, is going to appear on the Hot Stove show on CSN tomorrow night with Mychael Urban.
• I'm excited to say that Urban has agreed to participate in the Ten Questions Q&A series, so you can look forward to that. 
• Ross of Ross and the Heckler Speak has slowly been tackling hall of fame cases for his new-and-improved hall of fame. He recently looked at the cases for Barry Larkin and Fred McGriff.
• Lastly, in case you haven't yet heard: Jason Bartlett agreed to a two-year deal with the Padres, Edgar Renteria's deal with the Reds (one-year $2.1MM plus $900K in incentives) was officially announced today, and the Reds announced a one-year $900K deal with Fred Lewis today. 

The Giants and Baserunning

I recently got the 2011 Bill James Handbook (which I highly recommend, by the way), and one of the sections in the book is about 2010 Major League Baserunning. I was not surprised at all to find that the Giants were the second-worst baserunning team in the majors -- behind only the Kansas City Royals.

For context -- an average major leaguer went from first to third on a single 28% of the time; a very good baserunner will go from first to third on a single about 38% of the time; and a very slow runner will do it about 18% of the time. 

The Giants went from first to third on a single 82 times in 297 chances for a rate of 27.6%...so they were one base below average. 

Now, an average major league player scored from second on a single 58% of the time; a very good baserunner will score from second on a single around 70% of the time; and a very slow runner will score from second around 41% of the time. 

The Giants scored from second on a single 100 times in 170 chances for a rate of 58.8%...so they were one base above average. 

Lastly, an average major leaguer will score from first on a double 44% of the time; 62% is very good, 27% is very poor. 

The Giants scored from first on a double 31 times in 84 chances for a rate of 36.9%...about six bases below average. 

A player is credited with a base taken when they advance on a passed ball, a wild pitch, a sac fly, a defensive indifference, or a balk. The Giants had 167 bases taken, which was about six bases below average. 

The Giants, meanwhile, were thrown out advancing 25 times -- tied for tenth-best in the majors, and were doubled off 17 times -- tied for the worst mark of any major league team. 

In average, a player grounds into a double play (in a double play opportunity) 11% of the time. The Giants grounded into a major-league worst 157 double plays. They had 1135 GIDP opportunities, so that rate comes to about 13.8%, or 32 double plays below average. 

Baserunning Gain comprises all of these statistics...it is "the total of all the types of extra baserunning advances minus the (triple) penalty for all the BR Outs compared with what would be expected based on the MLB averages"....BR Outs "include the sum of Outs Advancing, Doubled Offs, and when a runner is tagged out on the bases when another runner moves up on a Wild Pitch, Passed Ball, or scores on a Sacrifice Fly."

The Giants had 43 BR Outs and their BR Gain of -42 was the fifth-worst mark in the majors. 

Meanwhile, the Giants had an SB Gain of -9, the absolute worst in the majors. SB Gain is based on the fact that stolen base attempts must be successful greater than about two thirds of the time to have a positive result on the number of runs scored. It is therefore "the number of bases stolen minus two times the number of caught stealing (SB Gain = SB - 2CS)." The Giants stole 53 bases (26 of which were stolen by Andres Torres), and were caught stealing 31 times, so that equates to 53-62 which is equal to -9. 

The Giants had an overall net gain (SB Gain + BR Gain) of -51, trailing only the Kansas City Royals as the worst baserunning team. 

Some stand-out individual Giants net gains:

• Andres Torres +28
• Nate Schierholtz +13
• Pablo Sandoval -27
• Aubrey Huff +8
• Edgar Renteria, Cody Ross (with Marlins and Giants), and Buster Posey +1
• Bengie Molina (with Giants and Rangers) -13
• Jose Guillen (with Royals and Giants) -25

It seems as though the Giants have moved in the wrong direction in fixing their baserunning problem, as Miguel Tejada had a net gain of -5, a bit worse than Rent's mark of +1. Jason Bartlett, a shortstop that I had wanted the Giants to go after, had a net gain of +21, markedly better.

Again, if you like obscure yet important statistics like this, I highly recommend that you get the Bill James 2011 Handbook.

More Offseason Talk....

Andrew Baggarly, San Jose Mercury News beat-writer notes:

A lot of folks might assume the Giants are no longer interested in trading for Jason Bartlett, or to a lesser extent, J.J. Hardy and Marco Scutaro. Don’t be so sure of that yet. Remember, the front office has threatened Sandoval with a demotion to Triple-A Fresno to start the year if he doesn’t make progress in his conditioning this offseason. You can’t make a threat like that without having alternatives on the roster, and considering how important defense will be to their pitching-centric club, Tejada is a better fit at third base, anyway.

Well, it's not the case. As recently noted by none other than Andrew Baggarly, the Giants aren't in on Bartlett. He says, "Now I'm hearing Giants are out on a Jason Bartlett trade. They had $5-7 million budgeted for a starting SS and spent it on Tejada." So we're back to square one. The Giants will need shortstop depth. I just don't think Emmanuel Burriss is a decent backup shortstop. And Brandon Crawford just isn't ready...


I suppose it's a good thing that Tejada was acquired to be a starting shortstop (rather than a backup plan at third base), in that it actually somewhat justified his $6.5MM contract. But this means the Giants are still lacking depth at short, and not seeking to fix that with a Hardy, Scutaro, or a Bartlett. Unless of course, they tender Mike Fontenot a contract. I guess I could see him as a backup shortstop. He produced negative WAR with the Giants in 2010, and I've never been too fond of him (he doesn't stand out in any categories: speed, defense, average, power), but as a backup shortstop, I suppose he'll do.

I'm curious as to what the Giants' next moves are...do they need another outfield reserve, like Pat Burrell? Or is it enough to have Aaron Rowand, Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Nate Schierholtz, and Aubrey Huff?

For the price I'm not interested, but Lance Berkman is intriguing. He wants to play outfield or first base, both of which, I suppose he would add depth to (although the Giants are really not in need of a first-baseman). With a resurgence of the bat, he would be the new-and-improved Pat the Bat. Seriously. He takes walks, he has Burrell-like power, and he's a switch hitter. With dedication to fitness, he'd be as good as Burrell in the outfield. But again, too much money, aging, and there's the injury risk. An intriguing name for discussion, though, I suppose...thoughts?

Are the Giants going to get a Matt Stairs? A hitter whose primary, and pretty much only role is to be the pinch-hitter? That was the goal with Burrell, but he sort of forced his way into the starting lineup. I wonder if the Giants will try to get this. Maybe Russell Branyan or a Mike Sweeney? Probably not, though. They have an excess of position players, with Whiteside, Burriss, Rowand, Schierholtz, Ishikawa, and possibly Fontenot.

My guess at the starters for 2011:
C Posey
1B Huff
2B Sanchez
SS Tejada
3B Sandoval
LF DeRosa
CF Torres
RF Ross

So, I think the Giants are pretty much done with their offseason shopping. Some possible bench bats...names for discussion: Branyan, Sweeney, Berkman, any others? I'm interested to hear what your thoughts are...

A more positive take on Miguel Tejada

Because I'm capable of being positive...

Here's what I said about Miguel Tejada on November 24:

So to sum it up, Tejada's defense is pretty mediocre. His power has declined to a point where it's just below average for a shortstop. He rarely walks. He can't cover much range at short. He's pretty much only good for two things: making contact with the ball, and playing in a lot of games. Beyond that, he's just pretty mediocre.

Tejada, however, might be a good option with a little bit of luck. If the Giants sign him to one of those bargain contracts -- the maximum risk should be 1yr/$3MM -- and Tejada has a resurgence, much like that which they saw out of Huff or Burrell, he could just be worth it. He's probably good for anywhere between 1-3 WAR. For $3MM, that's worth it.

Do I want Tejada? Not really. I'd rather have Juan Uribe, Jason Bartlett, Marco Scutaro, J.J. Hardy, Orlando Cabrera. But if they can manage to get him on one of those bargain contracts, he could just surprise people. He should not be a player that the Giants are considering at this point, but as a last-minute cheap option? I say go for it.

The one thing I must say is that Tejada is due for a resurgence. He had an uncharacteristically poor .269/.312/.381 slash line in 2010, and will likely bounce back. He won't be incredible. But he might just bounce back to the point where he's actually a legitimately good option for starting shortstop. With a little bit of luck, he could be a decent shortstop.

Oh yeah, and I change my mind. I would not prefer Orlando Cabrera over Miguel Tejada.

Giants Sign Miguel Tejada for $6.5MM

The Giants just agreed to sign Miguel Tejada to a 1yr/$6.5MM contract. I am not even joking...

Yesterday, I defended Tejada as an option in an argument with a friend. I'll admit it. I cited three reasons as to why:

• Durable (he's averaged 158 games each season since 1999). Yes, he's going into his age-37 season. But I figured that wouldn't matter, given his durability in the past. 
• Due for a resurgence (his 2010 season seems to me like an outlier, and he could likely hit more like the player he was in 2009) 
• Cheap. I figured he'd be a last-minute option, and the Giants could get him for $3MM. After all, he was signed to a one-year $6MM deal in 2010, and performed worse than he ever has. I figured he'd receive quite a pay decrease. Man, was I wrong. 

Brian Sabean panicked. He saw the Cardinals acquire Ryan Theriot. He knew that he couldn't get Stephen Drew nor Jose Reyes. He knew Derek Jeter was not a legitimate possibility. Most importantly, he saw the Dodgers acquire NLCS hero Juan Uribe. J.J. Hardy was probably not easily accessible, nor was Jason Bartlett I suppose (there are speculations that the Rays wanted Sergio Romo...). So Sabes acted fast. Too fast. And he gave Miguel Tejada twice as much money as he deserves. 

I don't dislike Tejada as the Giants' starting shortstop, and maybe I'm crazy because of it. After all, he produced 1.4 WAR in 59 games with the Padres. Obviously, that's a partial product of small sample size. But he's not terrible. He could easily produce 2 WAR for the Giants, which would render him, in some eyes, an average shortstop.

But this is not how the Giants succeed. They succeed by getting those bargain contracts, like the $6MM that they had to shed out for the combination of Aubrey Huff and Juan Uribe in 2010. And it got them to the World Series. 

This is a stupid deal, not because Tejada is bad -- although it would be nice if the Giants got a player that wasn't nearing 40 years of age -- it's that they gave him $6.5MM. I think, in terms of WAR, he could very possibly meet that value (or even exceed it). He produced 1.3 WAR last year, his worst season ever, and that's valued at near $6.5MM. So I don't doubt that he can live up to the contract.

But again, that's not how the Giants succeed. They need players to be worth more than their contract. For $3MM, I would love to have Tejada. Of course, I would appreciate if the Giants had a decent back-up plan, for the possibility that Tejada gets injured or just plain sucks, but I would have been fine with a one-year $3MM deal. Even in spite of his declining power, his poor walk rates, his terrible defensive range, and his age.

This contract can be filed under Brian Sabean's terrible contracts, along with the Aaron Rowand contract, the Dave Roberts contract, and the Barry Zito contract. It won't harm the Giants too much, but it was an obvious mistake. 

I can now feel content in going back to criticizing Sabean. Everybody fell in love with him when the Giants won the World Series, although I felt that he was receiving too much credit. Hopefully, people will be able to recognize that not all of his moves are brilliant, like the acquisitions of Cody Ross and Pat Burrell. Hopefully, people will realize that Tejada is receiving more money than he deserves and more money than the Giants needed to pay him. 

If Tejada returns to his 2009 form, I will still hate this contract. To reiterate, it's more money than the Giants needed to pay him.

UPDATE: As Andrew Baggarly notes, "Tejada also has led his league in ground-ball double plays in five of the last seven seasons. Recall that the Giants broke a 70-year-old franchise record for GIDPs in 2010, with Pablo Sandoval pacing the NL." Yikes...

Giants are the favorites to get Jason Bartlett

The Giants, at this point, seem like the favorites to get Jason Bartlett. I recommend that you read this, and this.

I looked at Bartlett earlier...you can read it here.

At this point, I think that Bartlett is the best shortstop available, behind J.J. Hardy. I don't consider Jose Reyes, Stephen Drew, or Jed Lowrie to be legitimate possibilities, simply because their teams would ask for a lot in return, which the Giants are not willing to give up.

Bartlett will cost around $6MM, and will probably be traded for a couple of relievers or pitching prospects. This isn't too much, considering his potential. He obviously won't match his amazing 2009 numbers (.320/.389/.490), but taking into account his speed, he will be a solid offensive shortstop. He'll probably hit .280 with a little bit of pop and plus speed. His value essentially depends on whether he'll continue to decline defensively, or somehow recapture that magnificent defense he had several years ago. For $6MM, though, he's not a huge risk.

He'd be a great addition for one reason. He would significantly improve the Giants' running game, which was essentially just Andres Torres in 2010.

A sad, sad day in San Francisco

The Los Angeles Dodgers have just signed Juan Uribe to a 3yr/$21MM contract. 

And with that, the San Francisco Giants legacy of Uribe has come to an end. It was a fun ride, which culminated in a World Series victory, but it's over.

But now all we're left with is memories...like this. And this. And this.

Uribe has joined the dark side. This really sucks.

Now the Giants have the remaining shortstop options:

• Orlando Cabrera
• Cesar Izturis
• Miguel Tejada
• J.J. Hardy
• Edgar Renteria
• Jason Bartlett
• Marco Scutaro
• Jed Lowrie (not going to happen...)
• Stephen Drew (not going to happen...)
• Jose Reyes (not going to happen...)
• Derek Jeter (not going to happen...)

At least the Dodgers signed him to a three-year deal. I doubt that he will provide much value in 2013. They paid him too much; gave him too many years. But it was the price they had to pay to deprive the Giants of their beloved Uribe. And it sucks.

Links Ed. #3

Every week, I gather links to interesting baseball-related articles, photos, videos, graphs, etc. Enjoy...

• Larry Granillo of Wezen-Ball has developed a Periodic Table of Hall-of-Famers.
• For you iPhone/iPod Touch owners, Fangraphs is having a sale on their iPhone app (99 cents for a limited time). I highly recommend it...win probability graphs, and player stats. 
• Beyond the Box Score made an interesting graph of Jeff Bagwell vs. typical hall-of-famers
• David Golebiewski of Fangraphs analyzed Jason Bartlett and came to the conclusion that he "figures to be worth more than he’s paid. But not by much."
• Aubrey Huff's decline in the second half of 2010 was in large part due to a drop-off in hitting breaking pitches thrown by left-handers. 

If you know/have an interesting baseball-or-Giants-related link, by all means tell us about it. 

Andres Torres: Platoon?

Throughout the playoffs, opposing managers routinely brought left-handed specialists to face leadoff hitter Andres Torres. The rationale for this move is simple. Torres, a switch hitter, is perceived as a bigger threat from the left than the right. Some numbers seem to support this notion. In 2010, Torres hit a solid .284 from the left while managing only a meager .226 from the right. In addition, 14 of his 16 home runs this year came from the left. These stats lead manager Bruce Bochy to flirt with the idea of platooning Torres with a right handed hitter such as Aaron Rowand. There are several reasons that this is a bad idea for 2011.

When looking only at 2010, Andres Torres appears to be significantly better from the left side. Interestingly enough, this was not always the case. If you remember back to 2009, Torres' offensive production came almost completely from the right side. In limited playing time, he hit a robust .338 from the right and a mere .210 from the left. While both of these numbers are small sample sizes, they show that Andres is capable of being a respectable hitter from the right side. What should we expect from Andres Torres in 2011? His 2010 peripheral stats indicate that he is due for a small resurgence as a right-handed hitter. His right-handed BABIP of .275 was below league average, especially for a man of his speed. He actually hit more line drives and fewer pop-ups from the right side. It is reasonable to expect that Andres Torres will not have a significant platoon split next year. He may be a better hitter from the left side, but he is certainly not terrible from the right.

Another essential aspect of Andres Torres' game is his speed. The Giants' projected 2011 lineup will be one of the slowest in the league. Just last year, Aubrey Huff ranked second in the stolen bases category with just seven. Cody Ross has above average speed, but he has never stolen more than ten bags a season. If the Giants fail to get a speedy shortstop such as Jason Bartlett, Torres will be the only running threat on a team that already struggles to push runs across the plate. His ability to make things happen on the bases is invaluable. For this reason, keeping him out of the lineup is simply not an option.

Torres' final and arguably most important asset is his defense. While he was snubbed of a Gold Glove this year,  he was undeniably one of the best outfielders in baseball. His amazing range was crucial when Bruce Bochy chose to surround him with two DH's, Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen. Better yet, he has the ability to play all three positions with ease. According to Ultimate Zone Rating, Andres Torres was 21.2 runs above average in the field in 2010. That number ranks him as the second best defensive player in the game, trailing only Yankees speedster Brett Gardner. Even if Torres continues to flounder while hitting from the right side, his excellent glove work should more than compensate.

Miguel Tejada: Giants 2011 Shortstop Option?

The Giants are reportedly one of the teams currently interested in Miguel Tejada. So...what say we delve into the prospect of signing the 37-year-old...

At first, one might think that Tejada provides at least a decent amount of power...after all, the guy has reached the 30-homer plateau four times throughout his career. This, however, is no longer the case. Even for a shortstop, his power is average at best. His 2010 ISO of .112 indicates that he has the same amount of power as Marco Scutaro and Cliff Pennington. In all fairness, though, it was a career-low, and likely an outlier. His Bill James projections see him having an ISO of .136 in 2011, power closer to that of Jhonny Peralta. Nevertheless, it's nothing special, even for a shortstop. Average at best. He's good for 10-15 home runs, though, and can hit his share of doubles.

The one great thing Tejada does have is that he makes contact a lot. His K rate of 10.5% in 2010 was extremely low (although that's often the case with shortstops). If you want a guy who constantly puts the ball in play, Tejada will do that. He doesn't have the speed to beat out a lot of infield hits, however, and doesn't hit the ball with the same force that he used to.

The major problem that I have with Tejada: he doesn't walk. Over the past three years, he's posted walk rates of 3.6%, 2.8%, and 4.4%. This could greatly exacerbate the Giants' overall problems with low walk rates. Walk rates this low are atrocious, especially considering he doesn't have any big numbers to outweigh it.

As for Tejada's defense, he's pretty mediocre. He has a career UZR/150 of -3.4 at shortstop. In 216 games at short over the past two seasons, he's posted a UZR of -12.3 with -14.2 RngR. He just can't cover much range out there. He never has, and going into his age-37 season, one can't expect him to.

There is one standout when examining Tejada. He is extremely durable. He played in 162 games in each season from 2001-2006. Over the past three seasons, he's played in 472 games. If he's good for one thing, it's being out there in the field every single day.

So to sum it up, Tejada's defense is pretty mediocre. His power has declined to a point where it's just below average for a shortstop. He rarely walks. He can't cover much range at short. He's pretty much only good for two things: making contact with the ball, and playing in a lot of games. Beyond that, he's just pretty mediocre.

Tejada, however, might be a good option with a little bit of luck. If the Giants sign him to one of those bargain contracts -- the maximum risk should be 1yr/$3MM -- and Tejada has a resurgence, much like that which they saw out of Huff or Burrell, he could just be worth it. He's probably good for anywhere between 1-3 WAR. For $3MM, that's worth it.

Do I want Tejada? Not really. I'd rather have Juan Uribe, Jason Bartlett, Marco Scutaro, J.J. Hardy, Orlando Cabrera. But if they can manage to get him on one of those bargain contracts, he could just surprise people. He should not be a player that the Giants are considering at this point, but as a last-minute cheap option? I say go for it.

The one thing I must say is that Tejada is due for a resurgence. He had an uncharacteristically poor .269/.312/.381 slash line in 2010, and will likely bounce back. He won't be incredible. But he might just bounce back to the point where he's actually a legitimately good option for starting shortstop. With a little bit of luck, he could be a decent shortstop.

Is Jason Bartlett a Good Fit for the San Francisco Giants?

The Giants, along with the Nationals and Orioles, have interest in Jason Bartlett. The Rays reportedly would be looking for young bullpen arms in return. So...would Bartlett be a good fit for the Giants?

Let's start off by acknowledging that the Giants don't need a great shortstop, or even a good one. All they need is somebody who can maybe cover a little range out there, and get hits at a decent clip (maybe .280). They have depth at most other positions, so they can afford to have a relatively weak shortstop.

When we looked at potential shortstops earlier, here was the verdict on Bartlett:

The Tampa Bay Rays seem to have a surplus of young middle infield options with Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez, meaning that Bartlett is potentially expendable. After an astounding 2009 that saw him hit .320/.389/.490, regression brought him down to an unimpressive .254/.324/.350 in 2010. Bartlett's true offensive talent level is likely somewhere in between. His defense on the other hand, has been on a steady decline, falling to a career worst -13.8 UZR/150 this year. Despite his flaws, Bartlett is an intriguing option for the Giants. Hopefully his reputation as an "all-star shortstop" will not persuade Brian Sabean to part with any top prospects to acquire him.

A young bullpen arm like Dan Runzler is not too much of a price to pay for a viable starting shortstop. And taking into account that Bartlett is projected to improve upon these 2010 numbers (his Bill James projections for 2011 have him at a .279/.345/.380 slash line), that is definitely worth it.

The one great thing that Bartlett brings to the table is speed. In 721 career games, he's stolen 100 bases. Back in 2009, he stole 30 bases. In 2010, that regressed to a mere 11 stolen bases, but his Bill James projections for 2011 have him at 17 stolen bases. How many Giants can truly steal? Andres Torres. That's it. Bartlett would add depth to the Giants' speed department.

His defense, as mentioned, is on a steady decline. However, he was a grossly uncharacteristic 9.3 range runs below average in 2009. It's likely that he wouldn't reach that mark again. I mean, could his range really be that bad? If Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria were able to cover decent range at shortstop for the Giants, I don't see how a speedy guy like Bartlett could be much worse.

I'm not well-versed on the arbitration process, but after making $4MM in 2010, and putting up dismal numbers, he's not going to make a lot of money. Maybe at the most $6MM for 2011 (but I seriously doubt he'd make that much...). If he matches that projected .279/.345/.380 slash line in 2011, plays average defense, and steals a few bases here and there, he'll be well worth $6MM.

So, is Jason Bartlett a good fit for the San Francisco Giants? Yes. The only question is whether or not the Giants would have to give up a lot in order to acquire him. After a mediocre 2010 though, he probably won't be too costly.

A Look at Potential Shortstops

Guest post by Zachary Chiang. 

With Aubrey Huff's seemingly imminent return and adequate options to fill the possible void in left field, the Giants' biggest offseason concern is undoubtedly the acquisition of a capable shortstop. As is the case with most years, the market for middle infielders is quite uninspiring. In general, shortstop is not considered an offensively-minded position, so finding a potent option can prove quite a challenge. Fortunately for Giants fans, Brian Sabean seems to do his best work in the bargain bin. Here is a look at several of his options.

Possible Returns

Juan Uribe: Uribe is looking at a luxurious multiyear deal this winter after originally settling for a return in the utility role with the Giants in 2010.  He provides both power and versatility, hitting 24 home runs while spending time at 2B, SS, and 3B. At shortstop, he was slightly above average with a 3.3 UZR/150.  Although Uribe is a fan favorite and seems to enjoy playing in San Francisco, it's unknown if he will accept another discount. While Giants fans are enamored with his majestic home runs, his slash line of .248/.310/.440 is only around league average. While there are no clear signs pointing towards regression, the Giants would be foolish to overpay him for this year's performance.

Edgar Renteria: Last week, Renteria announced he would like to play another year, even if it means switching to second base. Following an injury-plagued season in which he played just 72 games, Renteria can not be considered a durable option. Postseason heroics aside, he posted a forgettable slash line of .276/.332/.374 in 2010. His defense is still passable, but his splendid 6.9 UZR/150 is probably misleading.  Although it is almost certain that he will not return to the Giants, it will be intriguing to see how the rest of Edgar Renteria's illustrious career plays out.

Free Agents

Orlando Cabrera: Cabrera is coming off a down year with the Cincinnati Reds, posting a slash line of .263/.303/.354. Although there are many question marks about his diminished offensive ability, there are several factors that make him an attractive backup plan.  Although he played in only 120 games this year, Cabrera has been extremely durable throughout his career, averaging 156 games from 2001 to 2009. He plays quality defense (5.3 UZR/150) and provides a little speed on the bases. Most importantly, Cabrera will be cheap, as he received just two million last winter when he was coming off a better campaign. Bill James projects Cabrera to hit .268 with 7 home runs and 13 steals in 2011. If the Giants let Uribe walk, expect them to at least check in on Cabrera.

Derek Jeter: Derek Jeter will be a Yankee next year. There is no chance that the Yankees don't sign him, especially with a weak class of free agent shortstops. But if Jeter was available, would he be an attractive option to the Giants? Probably not. After posting a career worst, 270/.340/.370 line, Jeter's career seems to be on the decline once again. As countless writers have pointed out, he has won yet another Gold Glove with an atrocious -5.4 UZR/150. Other than the intangibles he brings to the field, it seems that Derek Jeter's ability will not justify the contract he is looking to command. However, the Yankees will continue to bring him back out of respect, until he finally decides to call it quits.

Trade Candidates

Jason Bartlett: The Tampa Bay Rays seem to have a surplus of young middle infield options with Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez, meaning that Bartlett is potentially expendable. After an astounding 2009 that saw him hit .320/.389/.490, regression brought him down to an unimpressive .254/.324/.350 in 2010. Bartlett's true offensive talent level is likely somewhere in between. His defense on the other hand, has been on a steady decline, falling to a career worst -13.8 UZR/150 this year. Despite his flaws, Bartlett is an intriguing option for the Giants. Hopefully his reputation as an "all-star shortstop" will not persuade Brian Sabean to part with any top prospects to acquire him.

Jed Lowrie / Marco Scutaro: With two viable shortstops and Dustin Pedroia firmly entrenched at second base, the Red Sox may look to make a move this winter. Lowrie, a Stanford alum, will be more highly sought due to his promising  .287/.381/.526 line this year, albeit in only 55 games. Scutaro has significantly less upside, but he is a solid player that is an asset compared to a replacement level player. Both are somewhat average on defense with respect to UZR data. If the Red Sox choose to commit to Lowrie, they will pay someone to take Scutaro for salary relief. It will take couple of quality prospects to pry Lowrie away, but his long term potential is tremendous.

From Japan

Tsuyoshi Nishioka: Contrary to earlier reports, Seibu Lions shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima will not be posted this offseason, but Tsuyoshi Nishioka of the Chiba Lotte Marines may still be headed to America. The 2B/SS led the league in hitting with a robust line of .346/.423/.482. He can also utilize his good speed on the bases, as he swiped 22 in 2010. Bobby Valentine has been quoted saying that Nishioka profiles as a second baseman in MLB, despite his two Gold Gloves in Japan, one of which was awarded for his work as a shortstop. It should be noted that he has played most of his profession career on artificial turf surfaces, like many other Japanese infielders. If the Giants became interested in acquiring Nishioka, they would first have to bid for the right to negotiate with him, as is the case with all players that come through the posting system.