Last week I did Ten Questions Q&A with Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness, and we got fantastic insight into the Los Angeles Dodgers. This week, the series continues with Andrew J. Martin, managing editor of Purple Row, a Colorado Rockies blog. I'm very pleased to say that once again we got great insight...
1. First of all, what are your thoughts on the extensions given to Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki?
Tulowitzki is basically the new Helton, except the contract almost makes more sense. It makes him a lifetime Rockie, but at a far more premium defensive position. But the big difference is that when a 1B loses range in the NL, they can move to.....1B. When a SS loses range, you can move him to 3B (esp with Tulo's arm) or any other number of positions (who knows, LF Tulowitzki? sounds wrong).
Gonzalez is effectively the same thing, except for the whole "lifetime" thing. It's pretty much a fair deal, given projected production and the number of FA years under the contract.
The bigger picture of the two of them is that Colorado is spending their money on their big stars, and hoping to make it back in terms of fan loyalty and gate revenue - Denver loves its heroes. Hell, John Elway could possibly run for governor and win in a landslide.
The other aspect of this bigger picture is the fact that Gonzalez (and to a lesser extent, Jhoulys Chacin) is making a lot of progress for building the Colorado Rockies brand in the country of Venezuela.
On a personal level, the potential of injury risk terrifies me, but you can't operate on fear of injury risk. I'm also not sold on Gonzalez. I'm really, really not. I don't deny his 2010 was awesome, but his A. home/road splits and B. High BABIP/low BB% stat line isn't the kind that ages well. I'm honestly trying to not worry and love the Extension.
2. What are your expectations for Jose Lopez in 2011?
Lopez is going to be getting a BABIP boost from Coors Field and just simple regression analysis. He's a decent line drive hitter with 20+ HR power who hopefully will benefit from the large power alleys at Coors Field. If he can handle league-average defense up the middle, he could be a decent addition to the squad for roughly nothing (AAA RHP Chaz Roe). Unless he gets hurt somehow or falls on his face completely in ST, he'll likely be the starter in 2011.
3. How good would you say the Rockies farm system is? From what I read on Minor League Ball, it seems to have a good amount of talent.
Deep, but not top-heavy. Matzek is an exciting prospect, but nowhere near MLB ready. Depending on how Friedrich rebounds from his 2010 injury, we could be seeing him late 2011 or 2012. Rex Brothers could be coming out of the pen mid-2011. Past those 3 guys and Wilin Rosario, it's not a terribly exciting system for anyone who doesn't religiously follow minor league baseball. There's a lot of good depth down there, but there isn't a Jason Heyward or Matt Wieters waiting in the wings. But it's deep, and there's been a couple of good drafts in a row.
4. I feel like when the Rockies come up in conversation, people generally think of them as a power-hitting team, especially with Coors Field. But what they also bring, which goes seemingly unrecognized, is great speed throughout the lineup with Carlos Gonzalez, Eric Young Jr., Dexter Fowler, and even Troy Tulowitzki. Do you think their speed will play an important role in their performance in 2011?
Fact is that speed NEEDS to play a major factor in 2011. The forms it arrives in may vary though. Gonzalez is a legit 30/30 threat. Tulowitzki is a good runner, but if he breaks 20SB in a season, I'll be baffled. Dexter Fowler, if he can put his bat together, has the gap power and pure speed to be a regular double-digits 3B guy. He has the speed to steal 30, but he's not really a base stealer - if that makes any sense. Dexter Fowler's speed comes to fruition in the form of covering massive amounts of ground. His 1st-3rd speed is probably the best on the team. Eric Young Jr. is kind of a problem. He's effectively a 1-dimensional player: he's really, really, really fast. Home to 1st, nobody on this team is faster than he is. Well, EYJ is QUICK. He could be an elite basestealer, but he can't bat worth his salt, he can't defend a position. He's surprised everyone thus far by even getting as far as he has. The thing to remember is that speed will play a bigger role on the basepaths rather than purely stealing. Fact is, you don't steal in front of Gonzalez and Tulowitzki - which could negate Gonzalez' SB threat. There's a lot for 1B Coach Glenallen Hill to work on with these guys.
5. Todd Helton's 2010 season was certainly a disappointment (although a .362 OBP is very respectable). How do you feel about the fact that he's signed through 2013 on a three-year $33.6MM deal?
Todd Helton is kind of the elephant in the room anymore. He's too much "The Franchise Guy" to just cut or whatever. There's a chance there's still a AVG/OBP guy still in there, and Bill James sees a decent rebound coming for Helton. The fact is that he's getting old and he needs to play only 100-110 games TOPS in 2011 if they want him to be productive. At least 2 days off a week. The extension doesn't really bother me. It's basically the "Retire as a Rockie" contract.
6. The Rockies rotation -- namely Chacin, Jimenez, Paulino (if he eventually slides in there), and De La Rosa -- seems to have a lot of control issues. How do you think this will play out in 2011?
Paulino won't be in the rotation, for starters. Past that:
Jimenez K/BB = 2.33
Chacin K/BB = 2.16 (MiLB K/BB = 2.88)
Hammel K/BB = 3.00
De La Rosa K/BB = 2.05 (2009 = 2.33)
I'm not worried about these guys. Cook, I'm worried about. If he wants to be a all-contact-no-strikeouts guy, he can't be walking 3.67 batters per 9 innings. Upside, he's kind of the #5 pitcher in the rotation, so it's a bit more forgivable.
7. Last year, it seemed that the Rockies really went downhill when Tulowitzki went down with
a broken wrist. If this were to happen again, do you feel that the 2011 Rockies will be better prepared for such an incident?
How do you figure they went downhill? From June 18-July 26th, the Rockies went 17-16. Given the fact that the Rockies were 34-32 before the Tulowitzki injury, I'd say they did just fine. Between Chris Nelson and Johnny Herrera, the SS position is covered, at least defensively, and the fact that Nelson has a lot to prove as a MLB hitter could make him an exciting player to see in the majors, should Colorado need him to start.
8. What would you say is the Rockies' greatest weakness at this point?
The Rockies' greatest weakness isn't really a single position but more the fact that they are relying on Ian Stewart, Chris Iannetta, and Seth Smith to really step their games up and be the players they're very capable of being, and in the event they're not, their primary backups aren't terribly encouraging (Spilborghs, Ty Wigginton, Jose Morales/Matt Pagnozzi/Mike McKenry). They can't tolerate another poor season from any of these guys.
9. The Rockies seemed to have had a busy offseason, with the acquisitions of Lindstrom, Wiggington, Paulino, Lopez, the three-year deal given to De La Rosa and the extensions given to Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. Would you say the Rockies made all the right moves this offseason?
Paulino they got for nothing, as they would've nontendered Clint Barmes anyhow. Jose Lopez is a huge rebound candidate, though not inspiring thus far in his career. I felt Wigginton was paid too much for too long, given his projected role with Colorado (utility guy). Lindstrom was a much-needed piece, given Huston Street's injury history. The fact that DLR took a pay cut to play for Colorado is incredibly encouraging to the fanbase. The extensions, I covered them already. Overall offseason, the only deal I don't like (or at least am not OK with) is Wigginton. Overall I say it was an A- offseason, assuming it's over.
10. What are your feelings about Jim Tracy?
Not a fan. I find him inconsistent, and he seems to have a player type he likes more than others, so he'll play favorites when someone like Ian Stewart is going through a rough patch. I strongly expect that if Ian Stewart goes through a 1-for-15 stretch, Wigginton will start at 3B for the following 3 weeks, regardless of Wigginton's performance. He selectively ignores splits in this fashion, for example in the form of a L/R platoon without actually looking at how well the player has performed in the negative side of the platoon.
Tracy also overworked Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010 during the first half, which directly led to his 2nd half struggles. The guy was flat out tired, and needlessly so. Apparently the starters like being overworked, but it's not the manager's job to be their BFF, it's to put the best players possible on the field to win baseball games. He also pitched Matt Belisle an absurd amount, and while they needed him part of the season, when they had other options (Octavio Dotel for example), they still pitched Belisle. His absurd micromanaging of the bullpen during tight games infuriates watchers, and I almost feel like he needs his toys taken away from him so he doesn't break them.
That all said, the players still seem to respond to him, so I obviously don't have the whole picture.
I'd like to once again thank Andrew J. Martin for taking the time to answer these questions thoughtfully. Another great week of Ten Questions.
