Ten Questions with Andrew J. Martin of Purple Row

Last week I did Ten Questions Q&A with Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness, and we got fantastic insight into the Los Angeles Dodgers. This week, the series continues with Andrew J. Martin, managing editor of Purple Row, a Colorado Rockies blog. I'm very pleased to say that once again we got great insight...

1. First of all, what are your thoughts on the extensions given to Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki?

Tulowitzki is basically the new Helton, except the contract almost makes more sense. It makes him a lifetime Rockie, but at a far more premium defensive position. But the big difference is that when a 1B loses range in the NL, they can move to.....1B. When a SS loses range, you can move him to 3B (esp with Tulo's arm) or any other number of positions (who knows, LF Tulowitzki? sounds wrong).

Gonzalez is effectively the same thing, except for the whole "lifetime" thing. It's pretty much a fair deal, given projected production and the number of FA years under the contract.

The bigger picture of the two of them is that Colorado is spending their money on their big stars, and hoping to make it back in terms of fan loyalty and gate revenue - Denver loves its heroes. Hell, John Elway could possibly run for governor and win in a landslide.

The other aspect of this bigger picture is the fact that Gonzalez (and to a lesser extent, Jhoulys Chacin) is making a lot of progress for building the Colorado Rockies brand in the country of Venezuela.

On a personal level, the potential of injury risk terrifies me, but you can't operate on fear of injury risk. I'm also not sold on Gonzalez. I'm really, really not. I don't deny his 2010 was awesome, but his A. home/road splits and B. High BABIP/low BB% stat line isn't the kind that ages well. I'm honestly trying to not worry and love the Extension.


2. What are your expectations for Jose Lopez in 2011?

Lopez is going to be getting a BABIP boost from Coors Field and just simple regression analysis. He's a decent line drive hitter with 20+ HR power who hopefully will benefit from the large power alleys at Coors Field. If he can handle league-average defense up the middle, he could be a decent addition to the squad for roughly nothing (AAA RHP Chaz Roe). Unless he gets hurt somehow or falls on his face completely in ST, he'll likely be the starter in 2011.


3. How good would you say the Rockies farm system is? From what I read on Minor League Ball, it seems to have a good amount of talent.

Deep, but not top-heavy. Matzek is an exciting prospect, but nowhere near MLB ready. Depending on how Friedrich rebounds from his 2010 injury, we could be seeing him late 2011 or 2012. Rex Brothers could be coming out of the pen mid-2011. Past those 3 guys and Wilin Rosario, it's not a terribly exciting system for anyone who doesn't religiously follow minor league baseball. There's a lot of good depth down there, but there isn't a Jason Heyward or Matt Wieters waiting in the wings. But it's deep, and there's been a couple of good drafts in a row.


4. I feel like when the Rockies come up in conversation, people generally think of them as a power-hitting team, especially with Coors Field. But what they also bring, which goes seemingly unrecognized, is great speed throughout the lineup with Carlos Gonzalez, Eric Young Jr., Dexter Fowler, and even Troy Tulowitzki. Do you think their speed will play an important role in their performance in 2011?

Fact is that speed NEEDS to play a major factor in 2011. The forms it arrives in may vary though. Gonzalez is a legit 30/30 threat. Tulowitzki is a good runner, but if he breaks 20SB in a season, I'll be baffled. Dexter Fowler, if he can put his bat together, has the gap power and pure speed to be a regular double-digits 3B guy. He has the speed to steal 30, but he's not really a base stealer - if that makes any sense. Dexter Fowler's speed comes to fruition in the form of covering massive amounts of ground. His 1st-3rd speed is probably the best on the team. Eric Young Jr. is kind of a problem. He's effectively a 1-dimensional player: he's really, really, really fast. Home to 1st, nobody on this team is faster than he is. Well, EYJ is QUICK. He could be an elite basestealer, but he can't bat worth his salt, he can't defend a position. He's surprised everyone thus far by even getting as far as he has. The thing to remember is that speed will play a bigger role on the basepaths rather than purely stealing. Fact is, you don't steal in front of Gonzalez and Tulowitzki - which could negate Gonzalez' SB threat. There's a lot for 1B Coach Glenallen Hill to work on with these guys.


5. Todd Helton's 2010 season was certainly a disappointment (although a .362 OBP is very respectable). How do you feel about the fact that he's signed through 2013 on a three-year $33.6MM deal?

Todd Helton is kind of the elephant in the room anymore. He's too much "The Franchise Guy" to just cut or whatever. There's a chance there's still a AVG/OBP guy still in there, and Bill James sees a decent rebound coming for Helton. The fact is that he's getting old and he needs to play only 100-110 games TOPS in 2011 if they want him to be productive. At least 2 days off a week. The extension doesn't really bother me. It's basically the "Retire as a Rockie" contract.


6. The Rockies rotation -- namely Chacin, Jimenez, Paulino (if he eventually slides in there), and De La Rosa -- seems to have a lot of control issues. How do you think this will play out in 2011?

Paulino won't be in the rotation, for starters. Past that:
Jimenez K/BB = 2.33
Chacin K/BB = 2.16 (MiLB K/BB = 2.88)
Hammel K/BB = 3.00
De La Rosa K/BB = 2.05 (2009 = 2.33)

I'm not worried about these guys. Cook, I'm worried about. If he wants to be a all-contact-no-strikeouts guy, he can't be walking 3.67 batters per 9 innings. Upside, he's kind of the #5 pitcher in the rotation, so it's a bit more forgivable.


7. Last year, it seemed that the Rockies really went downhill when Tulowitzki went down with
a broken wrist. If this were to happen again, do you feel that the 2011 Rockies will be better prepared for such an incident?

How do you figure they went downhill? From June 18-July 26th, the Rockies went 17-16. Given the fact that the Rockies were 34-32 before the Tulowitzki injury, I'd say they did just fine. Between Chris Nelson and Johnny Herrera, the SS position is covered, at least defensively, and the fact that Nelson has a lot to prove as a MLB hitter could make him an exciting player to see in the majors, should Colorado need him to start.


8. What would you say is the Rockies' greatest weakness at this point?

The Rockies' greatest weakness isn't really a single position but more the fact that they are relying on Ian Stewart, Chris Iannetta, and Seth Smith to really step their games up and be the players they're very capable of being, and in the event they're not, their primary backups aren't terribly encouraging (Spilborghs, Ty Wigginton, Jose Morales/Matt Pagnozzi/Mike McKenry). They can't tolerate another poor season from any of these guys.


9. The Rockies seemed to have had a busy offseason, with the acquisitions of Lindstrom, Wiggington, Paulino, Lopez, the three-year deal given to De La Rosa and the extensions given to Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. Would you say the Rockies made all the right moves this offseason?

Paulino they got for nothing, as they would've nontendered Clint Barmes anyhow. Jose Lopez is a huge rebound candidate, though not inspiring thus far in his career. I felt Wigginton was paid too much for too long, given his projected role with Colorado (utility guy). Lindstrom was a much-needed piece, given Huston Street's injury history. The fact that DLR took a pay cut to play for Colorado is incredibly encouraging to the fanbase. The extensions, I covered them already. Overall offseason, the only deal I don't like (or at least am not OK with) is Wigginton. Overall I say it was an A- offseason, assuming it's over.


10. What are your feelings about Jim Tracy?

Not a fan. I find him inconsistent, and he seems to have a player type he likes more than others, so he'll play favorites when someone like Ian Stewart is going through a rough patch. I strongly expect that if Ian Stewart goes through a 1-for-15 stretch, Wigginton will start at 3B for the following 3 weeks, regardless of Wigginton's performance. He selectively ignores splits in this fashion, for example in the form of a L/R platoon without actually looking at how well the player has performed in the negative side of the platoon.

Tracy also overworked Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010 during the first half, which directly led to his 2nd half struggles. The guy was flat out tired, and needlessly so. Apparently the starters like being overworked, but it's not the manager's job to be their BFF, it's to put the best players possible on the field to win baseball games. He also pitched Matt Belisle an absurd amount, and while they needed him part of the season, when they had other options (Octavio Dotel for example), they still pitched Belisle. His absurd micromanaging of the bullpen during tight games infuriates watchers, and I almost feel like he needs his toys taken away from him so he doesn't break them.

That all said, the players still seem to respond to him, so I obviously don't have the whole picture.


I'd like to once again thank Andrew J. Martin  for taking the time to answer these questions thoughtfully. Another great week of Ten Questions. 

Rockies Interested in Justin Upton

According to MLBTradeRumors, the Rockies have expressed interest in Justin Upton. Although Arizona's asking price is said to be very high, the Rockies lineup could be extremely potent with the acquisition of Upton.

Their heart of the lineup could potentially consist of Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Upton, and Carlos Gonzalez. Three young superstars who amassed a combined 78 home runs and 15.5 wins above replacement in 2010 (keep in mind they did incur injuries, and possibly -- especially with Upton -- have yet to reach their full potential). The Rockies would have a powerful lineup even with a weak supporting cast.

They would also be reckless on the basepaths. Tulo, Upton, CarGo, and Dexter Fowler stole a combined 68 bases in 2010, and could possibly approach a combined 100 steals in 2011 if they can remain healthy and receive regular playing time.

Considering the trouble some Giants pitchers have with holding baserunners (Tim Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez to be more specific), the mere prospect of the Rockies acquiring Justin Upton is scary. Keep in mind he's still only 23 years old.

Luckily, the Rockies would have to offer up a pretty nice package of players in order to acquire Upton, and my intuition tells me that the Rockies will not actually trade for him.

There's still many questions to be raised about the Rockies' entire pitching staff. Their bullpen is not very stable, and beyond Ubaldo Jimenez, their rotation is not very impressive. I don't see how Upton would be a priority, especially considering they already have two of the best young superstars in the game in Tulo and CarGo.

Nevertheless, the notion that Upton could possibly be in a Rockies uni' in 2011 is scary.

Buster Posey v. Jason Heyward: 2010 Rookie of the Year

Tomorrow is the day. After one of the best seasons in the history of the Giants franchise -- a lot of the credit due to Buster Posey, of course -- the world will finally know whether or not Buster Posey is the Rookie of the Year. The Giants have been overlooked many times this season. They weren't expected to win the NL West. They weren't expected to win the NLDS. They weren't expected to win the NLCS. And most importantly, they weren't expected to win the World Series. When Gold Glove Awards were announced, the Giants once again were overlooked. Andres Torres, arguably the best defensive outfielder in the National League, was not given the award for his superb outfield defense. Instead, Carlos Gonzalez got it. It's easy to shake most of these off. It simply made the Giants World Series victory all the better -- the fact that they were considered underdogs; Andres Torres' not being granted a Gold Glove Award was more of a personal hit, because I, among many other Giants fans, felt that he deserved recognition for his work out there.

But tomorrow, the Baseball Writers' Association of America can make it all right. Their voting will be announced at 11 AM (Pacific time) on Monday. As we await this sacred announcement, I would like to take one last look at the 2010 seasons of Jason Heyward and Buster Posey.

Batting Average
Posey - .305
Heyward - .277

Walk Rate
Posey - 6.8%
Heyward - 14.6%

ISO
Posey - .200
Heyward - .179

K Rate
Posey - 13.5%
Heyward - 24.6%

HR/AB
Posey - 18/406
Heyward - 18/520

SB/CS
Posey - 0/2
Heyward - 11/6

WAR
Posey - 3.9
Heyward - 5.0

My biased opinion: Posey deserves the award. He is a better hitter -- better contact rate and better raw power (better ISO). To do that, on top of catching the best pitching staff in baseball is just remarkable. Catchers don't get enough respect, but what they do every day takes a real tear on their body. It requires intense focus and reaction time. Heyward has the upper hand in speed and his walk rate is quite impressive, but taking into account the fact that Posey is a catcher, I'd say Posey deserves the award.

Tomorrow, the Baseball Writers' Association of America can make it all right. They can reward Posey for one of the best rookie seasons of all time -- it's not very often that a rookie catcher leads their team to a World Series title, let alone the first World Series title for that franchise in over 50 years. For now, the demi-god known as Gerald Demp Posey III will have to wait to be honored.

NOTE: Keep in mind that WAR is a counting statistic, so the Heyward has better WAR because he played from day one, as opposed to Posey, who was held in the minors for the first two months of the season. 

2010 Silver Slugger Awards

The 2010 Silver Slugger Awards were announced today. Like the Gold Glove Awards, voting is conducted by Major League coaches and managers:

AL
C Joe Mauer
1B Miguel Cabrera
2B Robinson Cano
3B Adrian Beltre
SS Alexei Ramirez
OF Jose Bautista
OF Carl Crawford
OF Josh Hamilton
DH Vladimir Guerrero

NL
C Brian McCann
1B Albert Pujols
2B Dan Uggla
3B Ryan Zimmerman
SS Troy Tulowitzki
OF Ryan Braun
OF Carlos Gonzalez
OF Matt Holliday
P Yovani Gallardo

Not a single San Francisco Giant took home a Silver Slugger Award, but unlike the Gold Glove Award, there was really no standout candidate for the Giants that deserved the award. Arguments could be made for Aubrey Huff and Buster Posey, possibly, but ultimately, I think the Silver Slugger Awards were given to the right players.

It'll be interesting to see if Posey wins the Silver Slugger next year, however, because beyond McCann, I don't really see much competition for the award at the catcher position.

Do Offensive Numbers have an Effect on Gold Glove Award Voting?

Note: for information on UZR, refer to this. For information on OPS+, refer to this. 

Another year of terrible choices for the Gold Glove Awards has infuriated me to the point that I want to look into whether or not offense really does sway the voting. This isn't very relevant to the Giants, necessarily, although it might explain why Carlos Gonzalez won a Gold Glove (instead of, potentially, Andres Torres).

So here's what I did. I took the top Ultimate Zone Ratings at each position in each respective league. That's seven players in each league, as there is no UZR for catchers and pitchers. I acknowledge the fact that UZR is not at all an ultimate indicator of defensive skills, but it does encompass many important factors - errors, range, arm. So I'm going to use it for this quick study.

Here's the list of players...

AL UZR Team (with their UZRs)
Daric Barton: 12.1
Mark Ellis: 9.9
Kevin Kouzmanoff: 16.1
Alexei Ramirez: 10.8
Brett Gardner: 22.3
Carl Crawford: 18.5
Peter Bourjos: 16.0

NL UZR Team (with their UZRs)
Ike Davis: 10.1
Chase Utley: 10.3
Chase Headley: 16.5
Brendan Ryan: 11.5
Jay Bruce: 20.2
Michael Bourn: 17.6
Andres Torres: 21.2

Now here are the Gold Glove award-winners:

AL GG Team (with their UZRs)
Mark Teixeira: -2.9
Robinson Cano: -0.6
Evan Longoria: 11.1
Derek Jeter: -4.7
Carl Crawford: 18.5
Franklin Gutierrez: 7.3
Ichiro Suzuki: 15.6

NL GG Team (with their UZRs)
Albert Pujols: 1.5
Brandon Phillips: 9.7
Scott Rolen: 10.6
Troy Tulowitzki: 7.1
Carlos Gonzalez: -2.7
Michael Bourn: 17.6
Shane Victorino: 2.6

So, from the results, it looks that generally, UZR leaders were snubbed of Gold Glove awards. Only two of the 14 UZR leaders in this 2010 sample were given Gold Glove Awards.

But enough with that, let's delve into their offense. I took the 2010 OPS+ of every player on these four lists. Then, I found the average OPS+ of each list. Similar to how UZR isn't an ultimate determination of defensive prowess, OPS+ is not an ultimate determination of offensive skill. But it does encompass a lot: namely, a hitter's power, and their ability to get on base.

Here are the results:

AL UZR Team's Average OPS+: 101.1
AL GG Team's Average OPS+: 119

NL UZR Team's Average OPS+: 104.1
NL GG Team's Average OPS+: 125.7

So there you have it...as you can see from the data, there clearly appears to be a much higher OPS+ for Gold Glove winners than there is for actual UZR leaders (who are perceived by many to be the league's best defenders).

There are clearly some flaws to this "quick study".

The first is that it's a small sample size. I only looked at one season's worth of data, so that's 14 players in each league. The second is that I weighed each players' OPS+ equally, even though they have not had an equal distribution of ABs or PAs. The third flaw is that neither UZR nor OPS+ are perfect indicators of a hitters' respective defensive and offensive skills.

Nevertheless, UZR and OPS+ do encompass a lot. And the data seems to be very distinct, that Gold Glove winners are better offensively than the league's "true best defenders." I bet if I were to look at data from a sample of several years, I would get the same results.

So there you have it. Offensive numbers have an effect on whether or not a player wins the Gold Glove Award...or at least, that seems to be the case.

Note: I took Peter Bourjos out of the equation (because he hasn't even had 200 PAs), which would push Ichiro onto the AL UZR team. That makes it so that three of the 14 UZR leaders won Gold Gloves. That also bumps up the AL UZR Team Average OPS+ from a 101.1 to a 107.7...that makes the difference between AL UZR Team Avg. OPS+ and AL GG Team Avg. OPS+ an 11.3 rather than a 17.9...still a significant difference, though.

National League Gold Glove Winners Announced: Andres Torres...Denied.

The National League Gold Glove winners were announced earlier today:

C - Yadier Molina
1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Brandon Phillips
3B - Scott Rolen
SS - Troy Tulowitzki
OF - Michael Bourn
OF - Shane Victorino
OF - Carlos Gonzalez
P - Bronson Arroyo

Notice something? Andres Torres is missing...I'm not personally surprised, but he was clearly snubbed. Let's look at the UZR of the three outfielders who won Gold Gloves:

Michael Bourn: 17.6
Shane Victorino: 2.6
Carlos Gonzalez: -2.7

Let's compare that to Andres Torres: 21.2 (best among qualified NL OF). Yes, he got snubbed. As did Alexei Ramirez (whose UZR of 10.8 is vastly superior to Derek Jeter's mark of -4.7). The most pathetic part, in my opinion, is the fact that managers and coaches vote for the Gold Glove awards. One would hope that they would be the most knowledgeable. Are errors, putouts, and assists all these people care about it? Range is probably the most critical, as it determines whether the fielder even gets to the ball in the first place. It's simply too critical to leave out of the equation.

Yes, UZR is not the be-all and end-all of fielding metrics. But seriously? Andres Torres, according to UZR, was 21.2 runs above average for his team, whereas Carlos Gonzalez was 2.6 runs below average, and Shane Victorino was only 2.6 runs above average. It's just too much of a difference to ignore.