With Posey, it's pretty obvious that he would've represented a major improvement over Molina as the starting catcher from the beginning of the season till the end. Molina posted a miserable slash line of .257/.312/.332 over the course of 61 games. Meanwhile, Posey hit .305/.357/.505 post-call-up. Putting Posey in the majors as the starting catcher for the entire season (and never signing Molina) could very well have represented a one or two-win difference in the Giants' record; which is, well, significant, considering the NL West race came down to game 162. But all is well -- the Giants managed to move Molina, slide Posey into the starting catcher role, win the NL West, and subsequently go on to win the World Series; oh yeah, and because of his service time (because he started the 2010 season in AAA), Posey will likely gain Super Two status, giving the Giants an extra year of the young superstar.
With Brandon Belt, the Giants face a similar conundrum. Should he start the season in AAA, or should he crack the Opening Day roster?
Belt should only start the year in the majors if all of the following conditions are met:
- He's ready: I can't stress this one enough; it's by far the most important condition. Do I think Belt's major-league ready? Yes. But if Giants management doesn't think so, I trust their judgement. Belt only played 13 games at AAA, and while he's hitting very well thus far in Spring Training, it's Spring Training. So if there's any legitimate reason to believe he's not ready, he should start the year in AAA.
- He'll get significant playing time: This is also a must. It would be detrimental to his development to have him wasting away on the bench, so unless he'll get consistent playing time (like four to five starts a week), there's no point in putting him on the major league roster.
- The Giants can solve their roster crunch: by leaving Belt in AAA, the Giants buy a little more time to solve their roster situation. Perhaps it'll give them an extra couple of months to work out an Aaron Rowand trade, or even to move Travis Ishikawa. It's worth trying to get something in return for Rowand. So unless the Giants figure out a way to get Rowand and Ishikawa off the roster (i.e. by releasing Rowand and placing Ishi on waivers), I don't want Belt in the majors. Knowing the Giants, there's a chance they could let Rowand take a roster spot away from a valuable player -- like Nate Schierholtz -- and that's obviously not a good solution.
- He'll improve the Giants: sure, Belt's probably ready. But I don't know that he necessarily will improve the Giants' record. It comes down to how his bat compares to Pat Burrell's bat. And I think the difference is marginal -- at least, minimal enough such that it won't harm the Giants much if he plays in AAA for two months. If Belt doesn't represent a significant improvement over Burrell (i.e. one win over the course of two months), why not just leave him in AAA? It'll ensure that he receives consistent playing time, it will buy the Giants a little extra time to solve their roster crunch, and it will potentially give the Giants an extra year of control of Belt in the long run.
So, that's where I stand on this. I don't think all of these conditions are met. Look, it comes down to this, assuming he's ready for the majors: what's more important? The potential improvement in the Giants' 2011 record that he'll bring, or the extra year of control the Giants could have in the long run?
I don't think the improvement is significant enough to justify giving away the extra year of control.
Also, if he is put in AAA to begin the year, and the Giants are struggling and desperately need him, they can always call him up.
