Saturday, May 14, 2011

Giants Fan Misconceptions

I've been hearing some pretty ridiculous things from other San Francisco Giants fans lately. Today, I dispel some of these myths...

1. Darren Ford deserves more playing time. Or this: Darren Ford deserves a permanent spot on the roster.

Speed's a useful skill, but what good is it if you don't get on base? ZiPS projects .224/.288/.322 for Ford. For a team that's already had enough trouble scoring runs, would it really be wise to pencil Ford in the lineup over Cody Ross, Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand, or Nate Schierholtz?

He's helped the team in some key late-game situations, but people tend to forget that Nate Schierholtz is also a really good baserunner (though not quite the flashy base-stealer that Ford is). When Brandon Belt is called up, or Pablo Sandoval returns, someone has to go -- and that player is inevitably going to be (and should be) Ford, because there's not really room on this roster for an outfielder on the bench that can't hit.

2. Ryan Vogelsong is better than Barry Zito.

Perhaps this is true. Perhaps Barry Zito can actually no longer throw anything faster than an 83 MPH fastball, and has fallen apart. Perhaps Vogelsong, he of a career 5.68 ERA (4.83 FIP), has resurrected his career, and become a really good back-of-the-rotation starter.

But here's the thing. We've seen 20 innings of Vogelsong and 13 innings of Zito. Let this be a lesson in small sample size: it's much too early to jump to such a bold conclusion, especially considering that Zito has proven in the past few years that he's a really good fifth starter. Fangraphs had Zito at 2.1 WAR last year. Vogelsong, may I remind you, had a career WAR of 0.2 (in 335 innings) coming into this season.

Again, it's possible. But unlikely. And even so, let's wait till we see more of the two, and I mean a lot more of the two, before making such claims.

3. Madison Bumgarner sucks.

In 42.1 IP so far, Bumgarner is currently boasting solid peripherals. His 4.25 ERA is backed by a much stronger 3.10 FIP, and his groundball rate is up about 8% from last year. Most of the people who have said this are basing it on his completely and utterly meaningless 0-6 record. I don't think I really need to expand further on this one...

4. Jonathan Sanchez sucks.

Translation: "Jonathan Sanchez frustrates me." That's okay to say. To say he sucks is just flat-out absurd though. His 5.73 BB/9 can make it frustrating to watch him pitch, but there's no reason to say he's been anything less than really good this year. He's got solid peripherals across the board (3.48 FIP, 3.64 xFIP), and ZiPS projects him to pretty much continue pitching this well for the rest of the season.

5. Sergio Romo sucks.

This one irritates me the most. The people who say this are basing it off of a few memorable and painful home runs. But Romo is, in actuality, one of the best non-closer relievers in the game. His career numbers are excellent: 2.51 ERA backed by a 2.74 FIP, and an astounding career K/BB of 4.68 in 139 innings. What's more, he's taken it to a whole new level this year, boasting a K/BB of 15.0 and an ERA of 0.93 in nine innings. It's a really small sample size, but my point is, it's not like Giants fans have said this because Romo's been awful in 2011. He hasn't. In fact, he's been great spanning his entire career. Why some San Francisco Giants fans continue to believe that "Sergio Romo sucks," I don't understand. And on another note, I don't understand why Bruce Bochy has only used Romo for NINE INNINGS this season. He's a valuable asset in the 'pen, and for whatever reason, hasn't been used as such.

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There are a lot more ridiculous things that I've heard of late, so perhaps I'll cover those in a "part-two version" of this.



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