Probable pitchers, along with their current FIPs...
Tuesday: Carl Pavano (3.87) v. Madison Bumgarner (2.91)
Wednesday: Nick Blackburn (4.48) v. Ryan Vogelsong (2.91)
Thursday: Brian Duensing (3.57) v. Tim Lincecum (3.01)
I asked Bill of The Platoon Advantage (ESPN SweetSpot affiliate) several questions about the Minnesota Twins--he's a Twins fan--to preview the upcoming series. Check out his answers after the jump...
1. The Twins are an unimpressive 31-39, but they've won 14 of their last 16 games. Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Joe Mauer have just recently come off the DL. So I take it that, at the moment, the Twins are a better team than their overall W-L record indicates?
That's fair, but I think it's also a mistake to assume they're suddenly cured. Six of those wins, including each of the last four, have been by one run. While it's great to have Mauer and Nishioka back, other injuries have meant that they're still starting multiple guys every day with names like Luke Hughes, Matt Tolbert, and Rene Tosoni. And there's not much to put any faith in down in the bullpen. This run has been great, but it's been driven by excellent starting pitching and luck; there are still a lot of holes on this team.
2. A while ago, 8th Inning Weirdness suggested on Twitter that Denard Span is one of the most underrated players in baseball, and Carson Cistulli recently declared Span the most underrated player in baseball. Do you agree with that assessment?
I might be tempted to go with Ben Zobrist for the most underrated, but Span is close. He's a very solid leadoff hitter, with his ability to both hit and draw a walk and his tendency to see a lot of pitches, and he plays excellent defense. And few outside of Minnesota seem to know who he is, which is just sad. You'll be missing him this week, though. You'll see 2007 first rounder Ben Revere in his place, who hasn't been hitting at all but is awfully exciting to watch. (My suspicion is that the Twins are impressed enough with Revere that both he and Span will start in the outfield most days whenever Span comes back, which will be great for the D.)
3. I know Carl Pavano and Nick Blackburn pretty well, but I'm not too familiar with Brian Duensing. Is he, at this point, the best starter of the three?
I suspect that Pavano is still the best (he's been steadily improving after a rocky start), but Duensing (despite an ugly ERA this season) has certainly been better than I ever would have expected. He's not going to blow anybody away, but he's got good control, he's consistently kept his home run numbers down (even if xFIP doesn't think he should be able to), and he's even upped his strikeouts to something fairly close to league average this year (up to 6.39 from 5.37 in 2010; the AL average in 2011 has been 6.7). He's certainly nothing to be scared of (only Liriano is that, and the Giants get to miss him), but he's just another in the line of solid number-three-or-so starters of whom the Twins seem able to find an endless supply.
4. J.J. Hardy and Brendan Harris for Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson. Care to explain?
There is no explanation. Here's what I wrote about it as it was happening. They just didn't like Hardy, for some reason we may or may not understand, and seriously underestimated his value. That one is going to keep hurting until (at least) Hardy is out of baseball or Bill Smith is finally relieved of his duties.
5. Who takes the series -- Twins or Giants?
I'd never seriously try to predict a series this short, but if you're going to put me on the spot, I'll say the Twins take two of three. Nobody is hitting for the Giants at all right now (though contact pitchers like each of Pavano, Blackburn and Duensing are pretty decent guys to get healthy against), and I get this feeling that this is the series where Mauer finally just goes nuts. Until Lincecum's one-hitter on Thursday.
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Thanks again to Bill for doing this! Be sure to check out the Platoon Advantage.
