This is the third time I've linked this, I believe, but it's worth bringing up once more:
With Bumgarner, the opposite is true: His pitches seem to have improved, as has his usage of them, and so we might expect to see his peripherals rise throughout the year. As a result, he's certainly a good candidate for a breakout.
Though the article was published on the 27th, it was actually written before Bumgarner's start the day before.
So...since then, Bumgarner has compiled the following numbers:
42 innings pitched, 45 strikeouts, three walks, one home run.
Six starts in, and it looks like he really is breaking out.
Now, for some arbitrary number-crunching. This is the 18th time in his career (40 career starts) that Bumgarner, not yet 22, has had 5+ strikeouts in a game with one or fewer walks. That's a rate of 45%. For comparison, Tim Lincecum has done it 42 times in 143 career starts, or 29% of the time.
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Okay, couldn't resist commenting on this:
Insanely stupid strategy. Giving up an out so that the runner can move over a base, with Josh Wilson coming up. Made no sense.