Sunday, July 24, 2011

Giants Rumors: B.J. Upton a Trade Target?

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Giants are showing interest in Tampa Bay Rays CF B.J. Upton. Upton, 27, is under team control through 2012, and could be an intriguing option for the Giants.

Over the last three years, Upton has hit .239/.318/.403 -- good for a 97 OPS+ -- while playing above-average defense in centerfield. He strikes out a lot (24.7% career K/PA), but he's able to maintain a high walk rate, as well as a relatively high batting average on balls in play, so he gets on base at a decent clip (.341 in his career, though it's been worse in recent years). He's at the age where a hitter typically begins to peak, so he has more upside than a guy like Carlos Beltran (who's 34 years old). All in all, he's posted eight wins above replacement since 2009, so he does have considerable value. Given that he got $4.8MM in arbitration this year, I'd imagine he'll command something around $6.5MM in the 2012 season, possibly more.

Though he's got upside, Upton hasn't been nearly as good as Beltran -- who has hit .291/.393/.520 on the season with nearly as many walks as strikeouts -- and thus represents only a slight upgrade in the outfield at this point. In addition, it's slightly worrisome that his bat has declined since his 2007 breakout season, and the package of prospects that the Rays will command in return for Upton will be high.

Unless the Giants believe that he's a lot better than he's played so far this season, he's probably not worth pursuing.