In spring training last year, Madison Bumgarner's velocity went missing, and many were concerned. A four-MPH drop in velocity is hugely significant from a runs-allowed perspective, so the worries were somewhat justifiable. Then again, Bumgarner was only 20 years old.
Anyway, fast-forward to 2011. Bumgarner's fastball velocity has steadily risen since coming up to the majors in mid-2010, and he's currently averaging 92 MPH on the year:
Over this time period, 2010-2011, Bumgarner has established himself as one of the best pitchers in the majors leagues, even if he isn't recognized as such.
Among pitchers to log 200 innings since the start of 2010, Bumgarner's strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.57) ranks 12th in the majors, and his FIP (3.01) ranks as the ninth best...You know who else has a 3.01 FIP over that span? Tim Lincecum.
He's one of the best starters in the National League, and probably one of the top five southpaws in baseball already, which itself is amazing. But the guy doesn't even turn 22 years old for another week (his birthday is on August 1)!
That puts him in an elite class of pitchers, among names like Don Sutton, Bert Blyleven, and Vida Blue. Just seven pitchers since 1901 have logged 200+ innings with a K/BB above 3.00, all before turning 22.
He'll never rack up strikeouts like Lincecum does, but he's got excellent command. His slider is perfectly illustrative of how he's been so successful: while the major-league average slider gets whiffs 13% of the time, Bumgarner's slider induces whiffs at a rate of 11.5%. The difference? Bumgarner throws it for a strike 74% of the time, whereas the average slider is thrown for a strike just 63% of the time.
And it works. This year, based on linear weights, his slider has been worth 9.3 runs above average, which ranks ninth-best in the majors. The expected run value, which adjusts for luck on balls in play, shows that it isn't a fluke, as it has him at 8.8 runs above average.
In late June, Josh Smolow of the Hardball Times pegged Madison Bumgarner as a breakout candidate because of his improved pitches/pitch usage; and since June 26, Bumgarner's gone 34 innings in five starts with a 2.88 ERA, 37 strikeouts, and just three walks. It's quite possible he is breaking out, and it's becoming increasingly clear that he's already developed into a front-line starter.
In Madison Bumgarner, the Giants have an extremely valuable and underrated asset -- an elite starter that is under team control through 2015. Yet another fantastic young pitcher to come up through the Giants' farm system in recent years, and it's been very fun to watch him.
