ZiPS projects Belt to hit .266/.357/.440 over the course of 516 AB in 2011, with 73 walks and an OPS+ of 113. While it's an optimistic projection, I see it as very plausible -- I have no doubts that Belt has a realistic chance of meeting, and even possibly exceeding these projected numbers. So, for the purposes of this, let's assume he meets these projections -- and let's put it into context.
Firing up Baseball-Reference's Play Index tool, we see some interesting things...
First of all, these are the first-year expansion-era players to have an OBP of .350+ (qualified for batting title).
| Rk | Player | Year | Age | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Belt | 2011 | .353 | 23 |
| 2 | Jason Heyward | 2010 | .393 | 20 |
| 3 | Ike Davis | 2010 | .351 | 23 |
| 4 | Chris Coghlan | 2009 | .390 | 24 |
| 5 | Gregor Blanco | 2008 | .366 | 24 |
| 6 | Kosuke Fukudome | 2008 | .359 | 31 |
| 7 | Akinori Iwamura | 2007 | .359 | 28 |
| 8 | Nick Markakis | 2006 | .351 | 22 |
| 9 | Hideki Matsui | 2003 | .353 | 29 |
| 10 | Eric Hinske | 2002 | .365 | 24 |
| 11 | David Eckstein | 2001 | .355 | 26 |
| 12 | Albert Pujols | 2001 | .403 | 21 |
| 13 | Ichiro Suzuki | 2001 | .381 | 27 |
| 14 | Rafael Furcal | 2000 | .394 | 22 |
| 15 | Warren Morris | 1999 | .360 | 25 |
| 16 | Quilvio Veras | 1995 | .384 | 24 |
| 17 | Marty Cordova | 1995 | .352 | 25 |
| 18 | Brent Gates | 1993 | .357 | 23 |
| 19 | Mike Lansing | 1993 | .352 | 25 |
| 20 | Pat Listach | 1992 | .352 | 24 |
| 21 | Chuck Knoblauch | 1991 | .351 | 22 |
| 22 | Jeff Bagwell | 1991 | .387 | 23 |
| 23 | Delino DeShields | 1990 | .375 | 21 |
| 24 | Mark Grace | 1988 | .371 | 24 |
| 25 | Alvin Davis | 1984 | .391 | 23 |
| Rk | Player | Year | Age | |
| 26 | Joe Charboneau | 1980 | .358 | 25 |
| 27 | Gene Richards | 1977 | .363 | 23 |
| 28 | Bump Wills | 1977 | .361 | 24 |
| 29 | Jim Norris | 1977 | .360 | 28 |
| 30 | Mitchell Page | 1977 | .405 | 25 |
| 31 | Butch Wynegar | 1976 | .356 | 20 |
| 32 | Roy Foster | 1970 | .357 | 24 |
| 33 | Joe Foy | 1966 | .364 | 23 |
| 34 | Curt Blefary | 1965 | .381 | 21 |
| 35 | Ed Charles | 1962 | .356 | 29 |
| 36 | Manny Jimenez | 1962 | .354 | 23 |
| 37 | Lee Thomas | 1961 | .353 | 25 |
| 38 | Dick Howser | 1961 | .377 | 25 |
Not a bad list, if you ask me. Of those 37 non-Belt players (note: I have no idea why Belt shows up on this list, because I'm 99.9% sure he is not qualified for a batting title), 14 have appeared on an All-Star roster; so there's obviously some good company there.
Let's go even further -- be more specific here. Let's look at walks. How many players, in their first major league season, have eclipsed 70 walks?
Only 17 from 1961-2010.
| Rk | Player | Year | BB | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jason Heyward | 2010 | 91 | 20 |
| 2 | Ike Davis | 2010 | 72 | 23 |
| 3 | Gregor Blanco | 2008 | 74 | 24 |
| 4 | Kosuke Fukudome | 2008 | 81 | 31 |
| 5 | Eric Hinske | 2002 | 77 | 24 |
| 6 | Rafael Furcal | 2000 | 73 | 22 |
| 7 | Quilvio Veras | 1995 | 80 | 24 |
| 8 | Jeff Bagwell | 1991 | 75 | 23 |
| 9 | Alvin Davis | 1984 | 97 | 23 |
| 10 | Steve Kemp | 1977 | 71 | 22 |
| 11 | Mitchell Page | 1977 | 78 | 25 |
| 12 | Butch Wynegar | 1976 | 79 | 20 |
| 13 | Joe Foy | 1966 | 91 | 23 |
| 14 | Jim Lefebvre | 1965 | 71 | 23 |
| 15 | Curt Blefary | 1965 | 88 | 21 |
| 16 | Dick Howser | 1961 | 92 | 25 |
| 17 | Chuck Schilling | 1961 | 78 | 23 |
Of those 17 players, nine have made an All-Star appearance.
Lastly, let's put this into context for 2010. How often do players draw 70 walks in a single season? In 2010, only 32 players did so.
| Rk | Player | WAR | BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Evan Longoria | 7.7 | 72 |
| 2 | Shin-Soo Choo | 7.3 | 83 |
| 3 | Albert Pujols | 7.2 | 103 |
| 4 | Miguel Cabrera | 6.9 | 89 |
| 5 | Adrian Gonzalez | 6.3 | 93 |
| 6 | Joey Votto | 6.2 | 91 |
| 7 | Aubrey Huff | 5.9 | 83 |
| 8 | Jose Bautista | 5.6 | 100 |
| 9 | Jayson Werth | 5.2 | 82 |
| 10 | Paul Konerko | 5.0 | 72 |
| 11 | Brian McCann | 4.7 | 74 |
| 12 | Kelly Johnson | 4.7 | 79 |
| 13 | Daric Barton | 4.4 | 110 |
| 14 | Jason Heyward | 4.4 | 91 |
| 15 | Mark Teixeira | 4.2 | 93 |
| 16 | Brett Gardner | 4.0 | 79 |
| 17 | Prince Fielder | 3.8 | 114 |
| 18 | Rickie Weeks | 3.7 | 76 |
| 19 | Dan Uggla | 3.7 | 78 |
| 20 | Chris Young | 3.7 | 74 |
| 21 | Adam Dunn | 3.6 | 77 |
| 22 | David Ortiz | 3.3 | 82 |
| 23 | Andrew McCutchen | 3.3 | 70 |
| 24 | Nick Markakis | 3.2 | 73 |
| 25 | Ben Zobrist | 2.7 | 92 |
| 26 | Ike Davis | 2.5 | 72 |
| 27 | Derrek Lee | 1.5 | 73 |
| 28 | Lance Berkman | 1.4 | 77 |
| 29 | Chone Figgins | 1.3 | 74 |
| 30 | Carlos Pena | 1.1 | 87 |
| 31 | Bobby Abreu | 1.1 | 87 |
| 32 | Mark Reynolds | 0.8 | 83 |
The median rWAR of those players? 3.9; and 22 of those 32 players were, at one point in their career, on an All-Star roster.
Now, we obviously need to look at all of this in perspective. I'm going to guess off the top of my head that most first-year players don't qualify for a batting title. Furthermore, being "in the company" of players doesn't imply anything -- other than sharing a common feat. Correlation does not imply causation -- in fact, you have 0.8 WAR player on that last list, as well as a 7.7 WAR player; so there's clearly a wide spectrum there. Also, All-Star appearances are a poor way to measure a player's value, and I'd be the first to tell you that (although, generally speaking -- and with countless exceptions -- good players do make All-Star appearances)
My point is essentially the following: Brandon Belt's plate discipline is a rare and invaluable skill. It's even more incredible to see this in a first-year major-leaguer. From what I've seen him do this season so far (yes, I know, it's only been four games), I'm confident in believing that he'll draw 70+ walks this year. Does that automatically make him an elite player? No, most certainly not. But he'll be in the company of many elites, which should give perspective to how talented he truly is. Just another reason to appreciate Belt.
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