I briefly touched on it, but I'd like to just add a little more...
Sky Kalkman, a couple years ago, put up a post on Beyond the Box Score outlining how to optimize a lineup by the BOOK. It's an incredibly useful resource, and I'd like to just excerpt what it says on the leadoff spot --
The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him.
ZiPS projects Miguel Tejada to have an OBP of .319; that's lower than Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Mark DeRosa, Brandon Belt, and Freddy Sanchez -- and it's equivalent to the projected OBPs of Nate Schierholtz and Andres Torres. Aaron Rowand's projected OBP is .312, and Cody Ross is projected to have an OBP .001 points lower than Miguel Tejada.
So, essentially, going by OBP -- Tejada represents one of the worst options for the leadoff spot. Furthermore, taking speed into account -- Tejada's probably an even worse option than Rowand and Ross -- who by the way, also batted leadoff for Bochy at various times last season.
The impact of this is minimal -- perhaps several runs scored over the course of an entire season. But the old adage is true: every run counts. And for a team that came incredibly close to missing the playoffs by just one game, it's hard to ignore things that are potentially costing the Giants wins.
If we assume a starting lineup composed of Posey, Belt, Sanchez, Tejada, Sandoval, Ross, Torres, Huff, and a pitcher -- Tejada's easily the worst leadoff option (behind the pitcher).
Although I don't imagine Tejada will see the leadoff spot much this season -- if ever again -- the decision was a real head-scratcher. Bochy's made some questionable decisions for the leadoff spot in the past, and it's certainly something to keep an eye on in the future.
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