Sunday, November 21, 2010

Is Jason Bartlett a Good Fit for the San Francisco Giants?

The Giants, along with the Nationals and Orioles, have interest in Jason Bartlett. The Rays reportedly would be looking for young bullpen arms in return. So...would Bartlett be a good fit for the Giants?

Let's start off by acknowledging that the Giants don't need a great shortstop, or even a good one. All they need is somebody who can maybe cover a little range out there, and get hits at a decent clip (maybe .280). They have depth at most other positions, so they can afford to have a relatively weak shortstop.

When we looked at potential shortstops earlier, here was the verdict on Bartlett:
The Tampa Bay Rays seem to have a surplus of young middle infield options with Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez, meaning that Bartlett is potentially expendable. After an astounding 2009 that saw him hit .320/.389/.490, regression brought him down to an unimpressive .254/.324/.350 in 2010. Bartlett's true offensive talent level is likely somewhere in between. His defense on the other hand, has been on a steady decline, falling to a career worst -13.8 UZR/150 this year. Despite his flaws, Bartlett is an intriguing option for the Giants. Hopefully his reputation as an "all-star shortstop" will not persuade Brian Sabean to part with any top prospects to acquire him.
A young bullpen arm like Dan Runzler is not too much of a price to pay for a viable starting shortstop. And taking into account that Bartlett is projected to improve upon these 2010 numbers (his Bill James projections for 2011 have him at a .279/.345/.380 slash line), that is definitely worth it.

The one great thing that Bartlett brings to the table is speed. In 721 career games, he's stolen 100 bases. Back in 2009, he stole 30 bases. In 2010, that regressed to a mere 11 stolen bases, but his Bill James projections for 2011 have him at 17 stolen bases. How many Giants can truly steal? Andres Torres. That's it. Bartlett would add depth to the Giants' speed department.

His defense, as mentioned, is on a steady decline. However, he was a grossly uncharacteristic 9.3 range runs below average in 2009. It's likely that he wouldn't reach that mark again. I mean, could his range really be that bad? If Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria were able to cover decent range at shortstop for the Giants, I don't see how a speedy guy like Bartlett could be much worse.

I'm not well-versed on the arbitration process, but after making $4MM in 2010, and putting up dismal numbers, he's not going to make a lot of money. Maybe at the most $6MM for 2011 (but I seriously doubt he'd make that much...). If he matches that projected .279/.345/.380 slash line in 2011, plays average defense, and steals a few bases here and there, he'll be well worth $6MM.

So, is Jason Bartlett a good fit for the San Francisco Giants? Yes. The only question is whether or not the Giants would have to give up a lot in order to acquire him. After a mediocre 2010 though, he probably won't be too costly.