Is Jason Bartlett a Good Fit for the San Francisco Giants?

The Giants, along with the Nationals and Orioles, have interest in Jason Bartlett. The Rays reportedly would be looking for young bullpen arms in return. So...would Bartlett be a good fit for the Giants?

Let's start off by acknowledging that the Giants don't need a great shortstop, or even a good one. All they need is somebody who can maybe cover a little range out there, and get hits at a decent clip (maybe .280). They have depth at most other positions, so they can afford to have a relatively weak shortstop.

When we looked at potential shortstops earlier, here was the verdict on Bartlett:

The Tampa Bay Rays seem to have a surplus of young middle infield options with Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez, meaning that Bartlett is potentially expendable. After an astounding 2009 that saw him hit .320/.389/.490, regression brought him down to an unimpressive .254/.324/.350 in 2010. Bartlett's true offensive talent level is likely somewhere in between. His defense on the other hand, has been on a steady decline, falling to a career worst -13.8 UZR/150 this year. Despite his flaws, Bartlett is an intriguing option for the Giants. Hopefully his reputation as an "all-star shortstop" will not persuade Brian Sabean to part with any top prospects to acquire him.

A young bullpen arm like Dan Runzler is not too much of a price to pay for a viable starting shortstop. And taking into account that Bartlett is projected to improve upon these 2010 numbers (his Bill James projections for 2011 have him at a .279/.345/.380 slash line), that is definitely worth it.

The one great thing that Bartlett brings to the table is speed. In 721 career games, he's stolen 100 bases. Back in 2009, he stole 30 bases. In 2010, that regressed to a mere 11 stolen bases, but his Bill James projections for 2011 have him at 17 stolen bases. How many Giants can truly steal? Andres Torres. That's it. Bartlett would add depth to the Giants' speed department.

His defense, as mentioned, is on a steady decline. However, he was a grossly uncharacteristic 9.3 range runs below average in 2009. It's likely that he wouldn't reach that mark again. I mean, could his range really be that bad? If Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria were able to cover decent range at shortstop for the Giants, I don't see how a speedy guy like Bartlett could be much worse.

I'm not well-versed on the arbitration process, but after making $4MM in 2010, and putting up dismal numbers, he's not going to make a lot of money. Maybe at the most $6MM for 2011 (but I seriously doubt he'd make that much...). If he matches that projected .279/.345/.380 slash line in 2011, plays average defense, and steals a few bases here and there, he'll be well worth $6MM.

So, is Jason Bartlett a good fit for the San Francisco Giants? Yes. The only question is whether or not the Giants would have to give up a lot in order to acquire him. After a mediocre 2010 though, he probably won't be too costly.

National League Division Series Game One Preview

Game One, Thursday October 7, Derek Lowe vs. Tim Lincecum...

Derek Lowe has been fantastic in September/October with a 1.17 ERA in 30.2 innings pitched. His overall 2010 numbers are nothing special, though -- a solid 4.00 ERA, along with a decent 58.8% groundball rate -- still below his career average of 62.9%. Nevertheless, he has the veteran, postseason experience -- for what that's worth -- and he did well in his two starts against the Giants this year: 11.1 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 2.38 ERA. The Giants need to avoid the double play. Derek Lowe is a groundball pitcher, and if he exposes this Giants weakness, they won't be scoring many runs...

Tim Lincecum hasn't been too shabby down the stretch either...52 strikeouts and a 1.94 ERA in 41.2 innings pitched in September/October. He's had an up-and-down year in 2010 -- the 3.43 ERA is quite uncharacteristic -- but he still has swing-and-miss stuff: a 9.79 K/9 and his swinging strike percentage (11.0%) is better than it was last year, when he won the Cy Young Award (10.7%). He's pitching once again like a Cy Young Award winner, and, needless to say, will need to continue to do so in order for the Giants to do well in the playoffs.

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Aaron Rowand, it was announced, will be on the postseason roster. This is not too bad. He won't be used too often -- just as a pinch hitter, and not in highly critical situations. He's had his fair share of clutch home runs this year -- 11 home runs in 331 at-bats overall -- and if he provides just one or two key home runs in the postseason, it will be worth it. He's not going to hit for average. He's not going to steal bases. He's not going to cover good range in centerfield. He's not going to gun down any runners from the outfield. But he could -- just maybe -- hit a ball out of the park. If the Giants stay in the playoffs long enough to see the Phillies, Aaron Rowand might benefit from the park (Citizens Bank Park) that got him his 6 year/$50MM contract (.309 average with 27 home runs in 2007).

Barry Zito, on the other hand, likely won't make the playoffs. This is a smart decision, and frankly, it goes without saying. Madison Bumgarner has been a far better pitcher, and the bullpen has stronger left-handed pitchers -- Javier Lopez, Dan Runzler, Jeremy Affeldt.

Key to this game: Andres Torres. It's been said a lot, but he will be key as the table-setting catalyst. Especially with a groundball pitcher on the mound, speed is invaluable. He'll need to have his legs going in order to jumpstart this Giants offense, and help them avoid double plays. His power and defense will also come in handy...

Expectations:

•  A big game out of Pablo Sandoval. It's a risky call, but he's been playing better lately (he went 7 for 18 on the Giants' final homestand) and he's hit well at home all year long (.330/.382/.520 slash line). 
• Aubrey Huff will have a good game. It's his first postseason game in his 11-year career, and he's basically led the Giants' offense the whole season (especially when Posey was still in Fresno). He'll be pumped up, he had an RBI double in the critical game #162, so he's clearly able to contribute in these high-stakes games -- despite the fact that he hasn't yet played on this stage. 
• And...Rowand likely won't face Lowe, but he does have great numbers against him. He's 11 for 23 (.478) against Lowe in his career. He probably won't face him though. So expect nothing. 
• Big Time Timmy Jim. The Freak. Tim Lincecum. Expect, at the very least, a quality start out of him: minimum of six innings pitched, with a maximum of three earned runs. 
• A clutch home run from somebody: Uribe? Posey? Burrell? Ross? 

Arizona Shuts Down Giants: 6-0

Freddy Sanchez is still on fire.
The Giants? Not so much. 

The Giants are the definition of unpredictable: after scoring 10+ runs in three games in a row (against legitimate starters in Volquez, Wood, Bailey), they failed to score a single run against a rookie for a team that is far out of contention. To his credit, Barry Enright, Arizona's starter, has actually put up decent numbers this year: 2.73 ERA in 59.1 IP, and an opposing average of .230; still, though, it's startling that the Giants failed to score even one run against him, given the fact that they had scored 38 runs in the previous three games.

Tim Lincecum's struggles continued. He has failed to record a quality start in his last four starts, giving up 19 runs in his last 19 IP. The mere fact that he lasted six innings, though, is promising, as it is the first time he has done so since August 5. One mistake essentially made his outing mediocre, a three-run homer given up to Adam LaRoche in the first inning. Over the next five innings, however, he managed to give up just one run. He seems to be finding rhythm in certain places: a 1-2-3 second inning, a 1-2-3 fourth inning; the one alarming number from the start is the four walks over six innings. This is the highest it's been in any of his starts since July 2. Overall, though, this start seemed like a step in the right direction. He appears to be improving with each start, and should hopefully return to ace status in a timely manner, as the Giants can't afford to be without the Freak doing what he does.

Notes:

• Jose Guillen's hitting has been good for the Giants (although his defense is wretched...). The one thing that does stick out though, is that despite a .371 average along with a home run in 36 AB, he has driven in just three runs. He's batting .263 with runners on, which is much lower than his actual batting average. He doesn't hit too well when he's needed to drive in runs. 
• Freddy Sanchez was 2 for 4, as his batting average continues to shoot up. The Giants could use a .300-hitting second baseman for the rest of the year.
• Jeremy Affeldt gave up 1 ER in 1.1 IP. He hasn't done well since returning, and hasn't been all too impressive for the entire year for that matter. The Giants' success in September will rely more heavily on Dontrelle Willis and Dan Runzler because of this. For now, though, Javier Lopez is doing a fine job. He's the only lefty reliever on the Giants that's doing so, however. 
• Orange Friday magic seems to be fading. The Giants have now lost two games on the day that was once perfect (9-0). 
• Oh yeah, and just for the record: Cody Ross did not play in this game. 

Tomorrow: Giants face Daniel Hudson who has been incredible since coming over from the White Sox in a trade for Edwin Jackson. His ERA is 1.72; They'll need Zito to step it up. The Giants have been carried by hitting recently: when they don't hit, they lose. Facing a tough pitcher, they might have trouble scoring runs, but Zito can help out the cause by pitching like he did at the beginning of the year, or the beginning of the second half. 

Todd Wellemeyer is Terrible

In the midst of another Giants' loss (6-3 loss to the Braves), we once again witnessed a terrible performance by Todd Wellemeyer. This was his first chance at the long relief role, and frankly, it should be his last. Of the 4 hitters he faced, every single one got a hit. Meanwhile, due to a short bench, Bochy had to use Matt Cain to pinch hit for Jonathan Sanchez in the 5th inning. Who knows what would've happened if Todd Wellemeyer wasn't Todd Wellemeyer, but instead, a hitter on the bench. Then we wouldn't have to rely on Matt Cain, who's batting below .100, to pinch hit. Not to mention, we wouldn't be risking the loss of our most consistent pitcher (let's not forget what happened to Dan Runzler when he tried to hit in Milwaukee...he's still on the disabled list). Also, instead of using Wellemeyer to pitch in the 5th inning, we could've used one of our other bullpen guys - for example, Santiago Casilla, who relieved Wellemeyer today and gave up 0 ER and just 1 hit in 2 innings. At this point, Wellemeyer offers absolutely nothing to the Giants. We have a great pitching staff, so the chances that we'll need a guy to eat up innings in the bullpen are slim. Even when our pitchers aren't pitching well, they usually keep us in the game. No need to give up these games by using Wellemeyer. Let's just keep an extra hitter on the bench, at least until Affeldt or Runzler returns. Then we can re-evaluate our situation. After all, it's only a few weeks until the rosters expand. For now though, a hitter, like Jesus Guzman for example (who projects to hit .269/.319/.405 in the majors for what it's worth...), would be of significantly more value to the Giants than Todd Wellemeyer. Guzman is hitting .382 over his last 10 games in AAA.