- If you missed A Day in the Life of Tim Lincecum, Dave of Golden Gate Giants broke it down over at Big League Stew.
- Hardball Talk ranked all 30 rotations based on fantasy rankings, and the Giants came out at #2.
- Beyond the Box Score has a cool graphic showing semi-transparent overlays of all 30 ballparks.
- The Giants ranked #23 in Keith Law's organizational rankings.
- I did a Q&A, much like the ones I've been conducting here, over at Ross and the Heckler. Also, he's moving his Hall of Fame posts to a new location.
- Happy Birthday Andres Torres!
Showing posts with label Andres Torres. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Andres Torres. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Notes: Tim Lincecum, Rotations, Ballparks, Andres Torres
Friday, January 21, 2011
Notes: Eric Surkamp Interview, Barry Bonds, Andres Torres
- The Giants agreed to terms with Andres Torres on a deal worth around $2.1MM
- Barry Bonds' trial hearing is set for Friday.
- Jim Caple of ESPN.com ranked all 30 MLB logos. He grew up a Giants fan, but he certainly didn't let his bias get in the way here.
- 24 Days of Magic has posted their interview with Eric Surkamp.
- Tim Lincecum was named by GQ as one of the 25 coolest athletes of all time.
- Sad news here...Mychael Urban will not be continuing his pre/post weekend radio shows with KNBR. There is good news, though, in that he could be bringing his shows to CSNBayArea.com.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
The San Francisco Giants and Home Runs
As a baseball blogger, I read dozens of baseball articles each day. I'm fascinated and influenced by the myriads of brilliant pieces out there. A while ago, I ran into this post on Athletics Nation, examining the A's home runs using Hit Tracker Online. I've been meaning to look at the Giants' home runs for quite some time, but I would be remiss if I didn't first acknowledge the Athletics Nation post that influenced this. Anyway, here goes...
I love Hit Tracker Online. It shows the true distances of home runs, the speed off the bat, the date, the ballpark, the pitcher, the hitter, the teams, and a link to the Top Plays Archive, where a video of the home run can be found. To put it simply, it's awesome.
Without further ado, some notes on the Giants 2010 home runs...
I love Hit Tracker Online. It shows the true distances of home runs, the speed off the bat, the date, the ballpark, the pitcher, the hitter, the teams, and a link to the Top Plays Archive, where a video of the home run can be found. To put it simply, it's awesome.
Without further ado, some notes on the Giants 2010 home runs...
- The longest home run of the year...Andres Torres off of Rodrigo Lopez on July 22, 2010, in Arizona. This one had a true distance of 450 ft. I love that Torres has the Giants' longest home run of the year. Not Pat Burrell. Not Pablo Sandoval. Not Aubrey Huff. The speedy guy, whose power nobody seems to trust. Yet, over the past two seasons, in 740 PAs, he's posted an ISO of .223...that's legitimate power. And he swings the heaviest bat on the team. Literally. I also love what Kruk says after this home run..."That's up where Barry Bonds used to hit 'em."
- The second, third, and fourth longest home runs of the year...courtesy of Pablo Sandoval. He may not have had a great season in terms of power, but when he got a hold of 'em, he hit 'em deep. And these were spread throughout the season....One was in April, one came in June, and one came in August.
- Home run with the fastest speed off the bat...Aubrey Huff off of Chris Narveson at Miller Park. 113.4 MPH off the bat.
- Home run with the highest apex...Andres Torres off of Carlos Villanueva at Miller Park. Apex of 134 feet. (Gotta love that four-game sweep at Miller Park...)
- The Giants had two inside-the-parkers...Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff. "That's right Mr. Huff. You hit home runs here, you gotta earn 'em."
- Some other great home runs from 2010, just because...Juan Uribe's HR in World Series Game One. Juan Uribe's HR in NLCS Game Six. Juan Uribe's HR off of Jonathan Broxton. Cody Ross' home runs in NLCS Game One: first and second. Pat Burrell's grand slam (his second HR of that game). Juan Uribe's grand slam (his second HR of that inning). Oh yeah, and I love this Huff home run, for whatever reason. Lastly, of course, Edgar Renteria's HR in World Series Game Five.
- One of my favorite things in baseball is the walkoff home run. I love walkoff home runs. Something about a player being able to end the game with one swing of the bat. Something about the brief period of time in which you can watch the ball sail through the air, awaiting its descent into the stands. Something about the way in which the player who hits the home run pauses for a second to gaze at the beautiful work he's done. I love them. I'm very saddened by the fact that the Giants went the entire season without a walkoff home run....but this one from 2009 was pretty awesome.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
San Francisco Giants - 2011 ZiPS Projections
Dan Szymborski released his 2011 ZiPS projections.
Highlights for me:
- Nate Schierholtz is projected to hit better than Mark DeRosa. This is no surprise, obviously, with DeRosa coming off of wrist surgery, but it's still interesting. If there's an outfield spot open, I'd much rather see the trio of Ross/Torres/Schierholtz out there than DeRosa/Torres/Ross.
- Brandon Belt: .266/.357/.440
- Freddy Sanchez...he's aging, but I think he can do better than his projection of .278/.320/.386
Monday, January 3, 2011
A Distant Third Place?
In a recent ESPN post looking at the 2011 season, Rob Neyer wrote the following:
In my personal opinion, it is absolutely essential for a professional sports writer to back up his or her claims with significant statistical evidence. I am all for expressing radical opinions, but when I read ludicrous conclusions based on cherry-picked numbers, or in this case, no numbers at all, it simply ticks me off.
It is reasonable to believe that the Giants will miss the playoffs next year. A third place finish is also within the realm of possibility. But saying that they won't be competitive? Give me a break.
As Neyer points out, the Diamondbacks and the Padres are unlikely to be contenders in the NL West. While it seems that both teams could compete in the near future, we'll save that argument for another day. Eliminating those two leaves the Dodgers and the Rockies, who finished with 83 and 80 wins respectively. With this in mind, it's hard to imagine both teams leaving the Giants in the dust as predicted. Neyer cites various flaws with San Francisco's roster, but clearly, the same circumstances apply to both Los Angeles and Colorado as well.
First is the argument of "uncertainty" concerning rookies Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. While each has their own small blemishes, I can not find any clear signs pointing towards future struggles. Posey's below-average walk rate (6.8%) and Bumgarner's mediocre K/9 (6.97) are hardly worth mentioning. To me, a pair of sophomore slumps for these young stars seems possible, but not probable. On the contrary, as a Dodger fan, I would be worried about Matt Kemp's struggles hitting the fastball, as well as Jonathan Broxton's second half implosion. Similarly, Rockies fans should be concerned about Carlos Gonzalez's unsustainable .384 BABIP and Jhoulys Chacin's high walk tendencies.
Next, we get to the regression dispute. Is it really fair to say that Aubrey Huff will bring the Giants down when rival lineups feature aging veterans Todd Helton and Casey Blake? And while Andres Torres' breakout season seems like an anomaly, the attack on Jonathan Sanchez seems illogical. Luck is a factor throughout the game of baseball, and thus, every team has at least one pitcher that outperforms their peripherals, some more than others. Jon Garland (3.47 ERA, 4.35 xFIP) and Ubaldo Jimenez (2.88 ERA, 3.73 xFIP) are excellent examples of this.
Lastly is the trifle issue of the Giants changing shortstops. While Juan Uribe flashes more power and defensive prowess, Miguel Tejada brings durability and contact abilities to the table. The gap between these two is marginal compared to that of Manny Ramirez and an average left fielder. And while the Rockies did not lose any key players this offseason, they did part with solid contributors Miguel Olivo and Clint Barmes, who combined for 3.6 WAR in 2010.
I believe many will agree with me when I say that writers must look at the bigger picture if they wish to write a relevant article. It is obvious that the success of the Giants will be highly dependent on that of the Dodgers and the Rockies. When Rob Neyer chose to only examine the inadequacies of the Giants through unspecific generalizations, he failed to do the same for their main competition, thus destroying the foundations of his argument.
Which team will be the most surprising in 2011?
There's going to be a great deal of change in the National League West.
I don't expect the Diamondbacks' rebuilding efforts to pay off immediately and the Padres are obviously going to miss Adrian Gonzalez terribly, but it's hard to figure where everyone else ends up.
Still, the Giants might surprise a lot of people by dropping from world champions to third place, and perhaps even a not particularly competitive third place. In 2010, almost everything that could have gone well for them did go well, with a number of Giants enjoying surprisingly good seasons. If there's reason for optimism, it's tied almost solely to the assumption that Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner will continue to thrive in their first full seasons. Will that be enough to balance the presumed regressions of Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres and Jonathan Sanchez, along with the departure of Juan Uribe (who's been replaced by Miguel Tejada)?
We'll know in eight or nine months.
In my personal opinion, it is absolutely essential for a professional sports writer to back up his or her claims with significant statistical evidence. I am all for expressing radical opinions, but when I read ludicrous conclusions based on cherry-picked numbers, or in this case, no numbers at all, it simply ticks me off.
It is reasonable to believe that the Giants will miss the playoffs next year. A third place finish is also within the realm of possibility. But saying that they won't be competitive? Give me a break.
As Neyer points out, the Diamondbacks and the Padres are unlikely to be contenders in the NL West. While it seems that both teams could compete in the near future, we'll save that argument for another day. Eliminating those two leaves the Dodgers and the Rockies, who finished with 83 and 80 wins respectively. With this in mind, it's hard to imagine both teams leaving the Giants in the dust as predicted. Neyer cites various flaws with San Francisco's roster, but clearly, the same circumstances apply to both Los Angeles and Colorado as well.
First is the argument of "uncertainty" concerning rookies Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. While each has their own small blemishes, I can not find any clear signs pointing towards future struggles. Posey's below-average walk rate (6.8%) and Bumgarner's mediocre K/9 (6.97) are hardly worth mentioning. To me, a pair of sophomore slumps for these young stars seems possible, but not probable. On the contrary, as a Dodger fan, I would be worried about Matt Kemp's struggles hitting the fastball, as well as Jonathan Broxton's second half implosion. Similarly, Rockies fans should be concerned about Carlos Gonzalez's unsustainable .384 BABIP and Jhoulys Chacin's high walk tendencies.
Next, we get to the regression dispute. Is it really fair to say that Aubrey Huff will bring the Giants down when rival lineups feature aging veterans Todd Helton and Casey Blake? And while Andres Torres' breakout season seems like an anomaly, the attack on Jonathan Sanchez seems illogical. Luck is a factor throughout the game of baseball, and thus, every team has at least one pitcher that outperforms their peripherals, some more than others. Jon Garland (3.47 ERA, 4.35 xFIP) and Ubaldo Jimenez (2.88 ERA, 3.73 xFIP) are excellent examples of this.
Lastly is the trifle issue of the Giants changing shortstops. While Juan Uribe flashes more power and defensive prowess, Miguel Tejada brings durability and contact abilities to the table. The gap between these two is marginal compared to that of Manny Ramirez and an average left fielder. And while the Rockies did not lose any key players this offseason, they did part with solid contributors Miguel Olivo and Clint Barmes, who combined for 3.6 WAR in 2010.
I believe many will agree with me when I say that writers must look at the bigger picture if they wish to write a relevant article. It is obvious that the success of the Giants will be highly dependent on that of the Dodgers and the Rockies. When Rob Neyer chose to only examine the inadequacies of the Giants through unspecific generalizations, he failed to do the same for their main competition, thus destroying the foundations of his argument.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Looking Back at the 2010 Giants Projections
To say that 2010 was a season full of surprises would be an understatement: Pablo Sandoval and Tim Lincecum had disappointing sesasons; Mark DeRosa was injured after playing in only 26 games; Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff played far beyond expectations, putting up all-star caliber numbers; and Buster Posey had no trouble whatsoever in adjusting to the majors, becoming an elite catcher from day one (his debut). Lastly, the Giants picked up some phenomenal players on the way, namely Cody Ross, Javier Lopez, and Pat Burrell. Now that we've looked at (and made) projections for the 2011 season, I thought it'd be fun to take a look back at how certain Giants were expected to perform in 2010 (and compare it to their actual performance). This will give context to how surprising 2010 really was. For the purposes of this, I'll use ZiPS projections, one of the most well-respected projection systems out there. If you want to take a look at the 2010 ZiPS projections, they are available here.
Pablo Sandoval
Projected - .320/.368/.516; OPS+ 130
Actual - .268/.323/.409; OPS+ 95
Aubrey Huff
Projected - .270/.330/.448; OPS+ 102
Actual - .290/.385/.506; OPS+ 138
Aaron Rowand
Projected - .273/.335/.431; OPS+ 100
Actual - .230/.281/.378; OPS+ 75
Buster Posey
Projected - .263/.343/.398; OPS+ 95
Actual - .305/.357/.505; OPS+ 129
Freddy Sanchez
Projected - .296/.331/.414; OPS+ 95
Actual - .292/.342/.397; OPS+ 98
Edgar Renteria
Projected - .280/.336/.388; OPS+ 90
Actual - .276/.332/.374; OPS+ 90
Juan Uribe
Projected - .269/.311/.442; OPS+ 95
Actual - .248/.310/.440; OPS+ 99
Andres Torres
Projected - .254/.315/.397; OPS+ 86
Actual - .268/.343/.479; OPS+ 119
As can be seen from these comparisons, which look at only eight of the Giants, there were many surprises. Torres, Huff, and Posey far exceeded expectations; on the other hand, Rowand and Sandoval far underperformed. All in all, the Giants ended up playing much better than expected, taking home a World Series trophy with an offense that, before the season began, was the subject of ample criticism.
Pablo Sandoval
Projected - .320/.368/.516; OPS+ 130
Actual - .268/.323/.409; OPS+ 95
Aubrey Huff
Projected - .270/.330/.448; OPS+ 102
Actual - .290/.385/.506; OPS+ 138
Aaron Rowand
Projected - .273/.335/.431; OPS+ 100
Actual - .230/.281/.378; OPS+ 75
Projected - .263/.343/.398; OPS+ 95
Actual - .305/.357/.505; OPS+ 129
Projected - .296/.331/.414; OPS+ 95
Actual - .292/.342/.397; OPS+ 98
Projected - .280/.336/.388; OPS+ 90
Actual - .276/.332/.374; OPS+ 90
Juan Uribe
Projected - .269/.311/.442; OPS+ 95
Actual - .248/.310/.440; OPS+ 99
Andres Torres
Projected - .254/.315/.397; OPS+ 86
Actual - .268/.343/.479; OPS+ 119
As can be seen from these comparisons, which look at only eight of the Giants, there were many surprises. Torres, Huff, and Posey far exceeded expectations; on the other hand, Rowand and Sandoval far underperformed. All in all, the Giants ended up playing much better than expected, taking home a World Series trophy with an offense that, before the season began, was the subject of ample criticism.
Monday, December 27, 2010
2011 Giants Hitting Projections
So far, Fangraphs has posted the Bill James projections and the Fans projections. I thought it'd be fun to project the slash lines and home run numbers of the Giants' (presumable) starting eight (along with our personal commentary on our projections). I'd love to hear input from readers...post your own projections in the comments, or simply gives us your take on our projections...
We're Giants fans, so our projections are probably biased, but whatever.
Buster Posey:
Aubrey Huff:
Freddy Sanchez:
Pablo Sandoval:
Miguel Tejada:
Pat Burrell:
Andres Torres:
Cody Ross:
Looking at the projections, it seems the Giants have five guys with decent potential to hit 20 HRs...they don't have any sluggers, but they have nice power throughout the lineup. It's certainly enough offense to support that stellar rotation (which we'll project some time in the near future).
We're Giants fans, so our projections are probably biased, but whatever.
Buster Posey:
- Bill James - .308/.370/.506; 21 HRs
- Fans - .304/.374/.483; 20 HRs
- Julian Levine - .310/.380/.500; 25 HRs...I don't expect much to change with Posey, with the exception of an improved walk rate.
- Zachary Chiang - .290/.360/.490; 20 HRs...More patience, less power. Might tire down the stretch.
Aubrey Huff:
- Bill James - .269/.348/.453; 19 HRs
- Fans - .282/.358/.456; 21 HRs
- Julian Levine - .280/.350/.460; 18 HRs...I expect a natural decline in Huff's numbers from his stellar 2009 campaign, but I think he'll remain solid. He won't be a major home run threat, especially playing in AT&T Park, and his walk rate will probably decline from his peak '09 season, but he'll still be an impact bat in the heart of the lineup.
- Zachary Chiang - .275/.360/.460; 20 HRs...Basically a repeat of last year, minus a scorching July.
Freddy Sanchez:
- Bill James - .285/.330/.401; 8 HRs
- Fans - .290/.336/.385; 6 HRs
- Julian Levine - .290/.340/.400; 7 HRs...I don't really expect Sanchez's numbers to change much at all from his '09 numbers. Rather, I expect his consistency to improve. He had a hot August that raised his numbers a bit, after he had had a prolonged slump; I expect fewer up's and down's in 2010.
- Zachary Chiang - .295/.340/.400; 10 HRs..Hoping he can improve on a career best walk rate.
Pablo Sandoval:
- Bill James - .308/.363/.492; 18 HRs
- Fans - .295/.345/.476; 19 HRs
- Julian Levine - .310/.375/.510; 20 HRs...Sandoval's a polarizing figure. Some say he'll play like he did in '10, which was rather mediocre and disappointing; others say he'll play like he did in '09 -- all-star caliber hitting. I lean towards the optimistic side. I think he'll hit for a high average with good power. AT&T Park will definitely take a few home runs away from him, so I expect a lot of doubles -- like 40-50.
- Zachary Chiang - .290/.330/.450; 20 HRs...Bounces back to somewhere between '09 and '10.
Miguel Tejada:
- Bill James -.279/.324/.415; 17 HRs
- Fans - .272/.311/.389; 13 HRs
- Julian Levine - .280/.320/.405; 12 HRs...low walk rate, doubles power, decent average.
- Zachary Chiang - .275/.320/.400; 15 HRs...Amazing comeback isn't that likely. Solid, if anything.
Pat Burrell:
- Bill James - .237/.351/.443; 20 HRs
- Fans - .255/.350/.440; 19 HRs
- Julian Levine - .250/.350/.440; 17 HRs...exceptional walk rate, good power.
- Zachary Chiang - .240/.320/.450; 20 HRs...Not much confidence after weak postseason performance.
Andres Torres:
- Bill James - .271/.340/.440; 14 HRs
- Fans - .270/.343/.420; 12 HRs
- Julian Levine - .270/.340/.460; 15 HRs..I'm a believer in Torres. In 740 PAs in 2009 and 2010, he posted an ISO of .223...I don't think my projected ISO of .190 is extremely optimistic.
- Zachary Chiang - .260/.330/.420; 10 HRs..A little bit low, but I think some pitchers will figure him out.
Cody Ross:
- Bill James - .265/.321/.444; 18 HRs
- Fans - .274/.335/.446; 19 HRs
- Julian Levine - .270/.330/.460; 20 HRs...Okay, I got a little crazy here. But I don't know. I feel like he has some legitimate power, and it will just come flowing out in 2010. Lots of doubles, and lots of home runs (yes, I just called 20 home runs "lots of home runs". Gee, I miss Barry Bonds...) I think the fact that he has decent speed will help give a little boost to his power numbers, as he'll stretch several singles into doubles.
- Zachary Chiang - .275/.320/.430; 15 HRs...Will be hard for him to meet unrealistic expectations.
Looking at the projections, it seems the Giants have five guys with decent potential to hit 20 HRs...they don't have any sluggers, but they have nice power throughout the lineup. It's certainly enough offense to support that stellar rotation (which we'll project some time in the near future).
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Notes, notes, notes
- The Giants took home five GIBBYs (Greatness in Baseball Yearly Awards). They are voted by fans, media, front-office personnel, and former major-leaguers...
Tim Lincecum - Postseason MVP
Brian Wilson - Closer of the Year
Buster Posey - Rookie of the Year
Bruce Bochy - Manager of the Year
Brian Sabean - Executive of the Year
- Andres Torres is going to be the subject of a documentary. Very happy to hear this...his story is one of the better ones in baseball.
- Brian Wilson is a nominee for Sportsnation's First Annual Awesomest Dude of the Year Award.
- After the signing of Pat Burrell, Rob Neyer said this: "And at some point this winter they need to get better, somewhere." By his standards, the Giants haven't really done that. But ObsessiveGiantsCompulsive (I'm admittedly a little late in finding this post) answered Neyer's comments perfectly. Seriously. It's an awesome explanation of how the Giants have a good chance to win the NL West.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
The Giants and Baserunning
I recently got the 2011 Bill James Handbook (which I highly recommend, by the way), and one of the sections in the book is about 2010 Major League Baserunning. I was not surprised at all to find that the Giants were the second-worst baserunning team in the majors -- behind only the Kansas City Royals.
For context -- an average major leaguer went from first to third on a single 28% of the time; a very good baserunner will go from first to third on a single about 38% of the time; and a very slow runner will do it about 18% of the time.
The Giants went from first to third on a single 82 times in 297 chances for a rate of 27.6%...so they were one base below average.
Now, an average major league player scored from second on a single 58% of the time; a very good baserunner will score from second on a single around 70% of the time; and a very slow runner will score from second around 41% of the time.
The Giants scored from second on a single 100 times in 170 chances for a rate of 58.8%...so they were one base above average.
Lastly, an average major leaguer will score from first on a double 44% of the time; 62% is very good, 27% is very poor.
The Giants scored from first on a double 31 times in 84 chances for a rate of 36.9%...about six bases below average.
A player is credited with a base taken when they advance on a passed ball, a wild pitch, a sac fly, a defensive indifference, or a balk. The Giants had 167 bases taken, which was about six bases below average.
The Giants, meanwhile, were thrown out advancing 25 times -- tied for tenth-best in the majors, and were doubled off 17 times -- tied for the worst mark of any major league team.
In average, a player grounds into a double play (in a double play opportunity) 11% of the time. The Giants grounded into a major-league worst 157 double plays. They had 1135 GIDP opportunities, so that rate comes to about 13.8%, or 32 double plays below average.
Baserunning Gain comprises all of these statistics...it is "the total of all the types of extra baserunning advances minus the (triple) penalty for all the BR Outs compared with what would be expected based on the MLB averages"....BR Outs "include the sum of Outs Advancing, Doubled Offs, and when a runner is tagged out on the bases when another runner moves up on a Wild Pitch, Passed Ball, or scores on a Sacrifice Fly."
The Giants had 43 BR Outs and their BR Gain of -42 was the fifth-worst mark in the majors.
Meanwhile, the Giants had an SB Gain of -9, the absolute worst in the majors. SB Gain is based on the fact that stolen base attempts must be successful greater than about two thirds of the time to have a positive result on the number of runs scored. It is therefore "the number of bases stolen minus two times the number of caught stealing (SB Gain = SB - 2CS)." The Giants stole 53 bases (26 of which were stolen by Andres Torres), and were caught stealing 31 times, so that equates to 53-62 which is equal to -9.
The Giants had an overall net gain (SB Gain + BR Gain) of -51, trailing only the Kansas City Royals as the worst baserunning team.
Some stand-out individual Giants net gains:
- Andres Torres +28
- Nate Schierholtz +13
- Pablo Sandoval -27
- Aubrey Huff +8
- Edgar Renteria, Cody Ross (with Marlins and Giants), and Buster Posey +1
- Bengie Molina (with Giants and Rangers) -13
- Jose Guillen (with Royals and Giants) -25
It seems as though the Giants have moved in the wrong direction in fixing their baserunning problem, as Miguel Tejada had a net gain of -5, a bit worse than Rent's mark of +1. Jason Bartlett, a shortstop that I had wanted the Giants to go after, had a net gain of +21, markedly better.
Again, if you like obscure yet important statistics like this, I highly recommend that you get the Bill James 2011 Handbook.
Again, if you like obscure yet important statistics like this, I highly recommend that you get the Bill James 2011 Handbook.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Notes...
Apologies for the relative inactivity lately...in my defense, though, the Giants have been relatively inactive lately...
- The Giants aren't interested in Johnny Damon or Rick Ankiel. Frankly, I would hope so. As long as they have Andres Torres, Aaron Rowand, Nate Schierholtz, Cody Ross, and Pat Burrell, they don't need another outfielder.
- The Giants have strong interest in Andrew Miller. He'd certainly be an interesting "reclamation project," although it didn't end up working with Dontrelle Willis. I don't know where he'd fit in to the Giants' picture, but I'm a fan of the low-risk high-reward deals.
- Brian Sabean said the Giants' payroll could reach $120MM in 2011. This doesn't particularly surprise me...The Giants had a payroll of around $100MM for 2010, so taking into account the fact that they won the World Series, one would expect them to be in the $110MM-$120MM range.
- Freddy Sanchez will undergo yet another surgery. He should be ready for the season-opener, according to Dave Groeschner, but we'll wait and see. At least the Giants only have to deal with Sanchez's injuries for one more year...
Friday, December 3, 2010
Non-Tenders: Velez and Ray; Fontenot Signed to a One-Year Deal
Eugenio Velez and Chris Ray have not been offered contracts. Mike Fontenot was signed to a one-year deal worth just over $1MM, and all the other arbitration-eligible Giants (Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Santiago Casilla, Ramon Ramirez, Javier Lopez, and Jonathan Sanchez) have been tendered contracts. It's all here.
Fontenot's deal will not have incentives, and I can't really see it hurting the Giants at all. He'll provide them with a veteran middle-infield bat, and the fact that he's left-handed obviously presents value -- keep in mind that Freddy Sanchez has had some trouble against right-handed pitching...Fontenot doesn't particularly shine in any categories -- not a top defender, doesn't have great speed, not much power, doesn't hit for a high average -- but as a backup middle infielder, he'll be fine.
With the Giants in 2010, he produced -0.3 WAR, played mediocre defense, and didn't hit for much power at all (.282/.329/.310). I've always been bothered by hitters whose SLG is higher than their OBP, and Fontenot was one of those guys with the Giants. It's not like his .329 OBP is dazzling either, so it doesn't really justify the fact that it's higher than his SLG. Anyway, I'm sure he's a better player than this. He's not an impact bat, but he'll play average defense, and he'll give the Giants a back-up left-handed middle-infield bat -- useful, if you consider that the Giants' starting middle infielders will be right-handed hitters Miguel Tejada and Freddy Sanchez.
Ray and Velez could potentially be signed to minor-league deals, but we'll see. Their time as San Francisco Giants is likely over.
Fontenot's deal will not have incentives, and I can't really see it hurting the Giants at all. He'll provide them with a veteran middle-infield bat, and the fact that he's left-handed obviously presents value -- keep in mind that Freddy Sanchez has had some trouble against right-handed pitching...Fontenot doesn't particularly shine in any categories -- not a top defender, doesn't have great speed, not much power, doesn't hit for a high average -- but as a backup middle infielder, he'll be fine.
With the Giants in 2010, he produced -0.3 WAR, played mediocre defense, and didn't hit for much power at all (.282/.329/.310). I've always been bothered by hitters whose SLG is higher than their OBP, and Fontenot was one of those guys with the Giants. It's not like his .329 OBP is dazzling either, so it doesn't really justify the fact that it's higher than his SLG. Anyway, I'm sure he's a better player than this. He's not an impact bat, but he'll play average defense, and he'll give the Giants a back-up left-handed middle-infield bat -- useful, if you consider that the Giants' starting middle infielders will be right-handed hitters Miguel Tejada and Freddy Sanchez.
Ray and Velez could potentially be signed to minor-league deals, but we'll see. Their time as San Francisco Giants is likely over.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
More Offseason Talk....
Andrew Baggarly, San Jose Mercury News beat-writer notes:
I suppose it's a good thing that Tejada was acquired to be a starting shortstop (rather than a backup plan at third base), in that it actually somewhat justified his $6.5MM contract. But this means the Giants are still lacking depth at short, and not seeking to fix that with a Hardy, Scutaro, or a Bartlett. Unless of course, they tender Mike Fontenot a contract. I guess I could see him as a backup shortstop. He produced negative WAR with the Giants in 2010, and I've never been too fond of him (he doesn't stand out in any categories: speed, defense, average, power), but as a backup shortstop, I suppose he'll do.
I'm curious as to what the Giants' next moves are...do they need another outfield reserve, like Pat Burrell? Or is it enough to have Aaron Rowand, Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Nate Schierholtz, and Aubrey Huff?
For the price I'm not interested, but Lance Berkman is intriguing. He wants to play outfield or first base, both of which, I suppose he would add depth to (although the Giants are really not in need of a first-baseman). With a resurgence of the bat, he would be the new-and-improved Pat the Bat. Seriously. He takes walks, he has Burrell-like power, and he's a switch hitter. With dedication to fitness, he'd be as good as Burrell in the outfield. But again, too much money, aging, and there's the injury risk. An intriguing name for discussion, though, I suppose...thoughts?
Are the Giants going to get a Matt Stairs? A hitter whose primary, and pretty much only role is to be the pinch-hitter? That was the goal with Burrell, but he sort of forced his way into the starting lineup. I wonder if the Giants will try to get this. Maybe Russell Branyan or a Mike Sweeney? Probably not, though. They have an excess of position players, with Whiteside, Burriss, Rowand, Schierholtz, Ishikawa, and possibly Fontenot.
My guess at the starters for 2011:
C Posey
1B Huff
2B Sanchez
SS Tejada
3B Sandoval
LF DeRosa
CF Torres
RF Ross
So, I think the Giants are pretty much done with their offseason shopping. Some possible bench bats...names for discussion: Branyan, Sweeney, Berkman, any others? I'm interested to hear what your thoughts are...
A lot of folks might assume the Giants are no longer interested in trading for Jason Bartlett, or to a lesser extent, J.J. Hardy and Marco Scutaro. Don’t be so sure of that yet. Remember, the front office has threatened Sandoval with a demotion to Triple-A Fresno to start the year if he doesn’t make progress in his conditioning this offseason. You can’t make a threat like that without having alternatives on the roster, and considering how important defense will be to their pitching-centric club, Tejada is a better fit at third base, anyway.Well, it's not the case. As recently noted by none other than Andrew Baggarly, the Giants aren't in on Bartlett. He says, "Now I'm hearing Giants are out on a Jason Bartlett trade. They had $5-7 million budgeted for a starting SS and spent it on Tejada." So we're back to square one. The Giants will need shortstop depth. I just don't think Emmanuel Burriss is a decent backup shortstop. And Brandon Crawford just isn't ready...
I suppose it's a good thing that Tejada was acquired to be a starting shortstop (rather than a backup plan at third base), in that it actually somewhat justified his $6.5MM contract. But this means the Giants are still lacking depth at short, and not seeking to fix that with a Hardy, Scutaro, or a Bartlett. Unless of course, they tender Mike Fontenot a contract. I guess I could see him as a backup shortstop. He produced negative WAR with the Giants in 2010, and I've never been too fond of him (he doesn't stand out in any categories: speed, defense, average, power), but as a backup shortstop, I suppose he'll do.
I'm curious as to what the Giants' next moves are...do they need another outfield reserve, like Pat Burrell? Or is it enough to have Aaron Rowand, Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Nate Schierholtz, and Aubrey Huff?
For the price I'm not interested, but Lance Berkman is intriguing. He wants to play outfield or first base, both of which, I suppose he would add depth to (although the Giants are really not in need of a first-baseman). With a resurgence of the bat, he would be the new-and-improved Pat the Bat. Seriously. He takes walks, he has Burrell-like power, and he's a switch hitter. With dedication to fitness, he'd be as good as Burrell in the outfield. But again, too much money, aging, and there's the injury risk. An intriguing name for discussion, though, I suppose...thoughts?
Are the Giants going to get a Matt Stairs? A hitter whose primary, and pretty much only role is to be the pinch-hitter? That was the goal with Burrell, but he sort of forced his way into the starting lineup. I wonder if the Giants will try to get this. Maybe Russell Branyan or a Mike Sweeney? Probably not, though. They have an excess of position players, with Whiteside, Burriss, Rowand, Schierholtz, Ishikawa, and possibly Fontenot.
My guess at the starters for 2011:
C Posey
1B Huff
2B Sanchez
SS Tejada
3B Sandoval
LF DeRosa
CF Torres
RF Ross
So, I think the Giants are pretty much done with their offseason shopping. Some possible bench bats...names for discussion: Branyan, Sweeney, Berkman, any others? I'm interested to hear what your thoughts are...
Giants are the favorites to get Jason Bartlett
The Giants, at this point, seem like the favorites to get Jason Bartlett. I recommend that you read this, and this.
I looked at Bartlett earlier...you can read it here.
At this point, I think that Bartlett is the best shortstop available, behind J.J. Hardy. I don't consider Jose Reyes, Stephen Drew, or Jed Lowrie to be legitimate possibilities, simply because their teams would ask for a lot in return, which the Giants are not willing to give up.
Bartlett will cost around $6MM, and will probably be traded for a couple of relievers or pitching prospects. This isn't too much, considering his potential. He obviously won't match his amazing 2009 numbers (.320/.389/.490), but taking into account his speed, he will be a solid offensive shortstop. He'll probably hit .280 with a little bit of pop and plus speed. His value essentially depends on whether he'll continue to decline defensively, or somehow recapture that magnificent defense he had several years ago. For $6MM, though, he's not a huge risk.
He'd be a great addition for one reason. He would significantly improve the Giants' running game, which was essentially just Andres Torres in 2010.
I looked at Bartlett earlier...you can read it here.
At this point, I think that Bartlett is the best shortstop available, behind J.J. Hardy. I don't consider Jose Reyes, Stephen Drew, or Jed Lowrie to be legitimate possibilities, simply because their teams would ask for a lot in return, which the Giants are not willing to give up.
Bartlett will cost around $6MM, and will probably be traded for a couple of relievers or pitching prospects. This isn't too much, considering his potential. He obviously won't match his amazing 2009 numbers (.320/.389/.490), but taking into account his speed, he will be a solid offensive shortstop. He'll probably hit .280 with a little bit of pop and plus speed. His value essentially depends on whether he'll continue to decline defensively, or somehow recapture that magnificent defense he had several years ago. For $6MM, though, he's not a huge risk.
He'd be a great addition for one reason. He would significantly improve the Giants' running game, which was essentially just Andres Torres in 2010.
Saturday, November 27, 2010
Andres Torres: Platoon?
Throughout the playoffs, opposing managers routinely brought left-handed specialists to face leadoff hitter Andres Torres. The rationale for this move is simple. Torres, a switch hitter, is perceived as a bigger threat from the left than the right. Some numbers seem to support this notion. In 2010, Torres hit a solid .284 from the left while managing only a meager .226 from the right. In addition, 14 of his 16 home runs this year came from the left. These stats lead manager Bruce Bochy to flirt with the idea of platooning Torres with a right handed hitter such as Aaron Rowand. There are several reasons that this is a bad idea for 2011.
When looking only at 2010, Andres Torres appears to be significantly better from the left side. Interestingly enough, this was not always the case. If you remember back to 2009, Torres' offensive production came almost completely from the right side. In limited playing time, he hit a robust .338 from the right and a mere .210 from the left. While both of these numbers are small sample sizes, they show that Andres is capable of being a respectable hitter from the right side. What should we expect from Andres Torres in 2011? His 2010 peripheral stats indicate that he is due for a small resurgence as a right-handed hitter. His right-handed BABIP of .275 was below league average, especially for a man of his speed. He actually hit more line drives and fewer pop-ups from the right side. It is reasonable to expect that Andres Torres will not have a significant platoon split next year. He may be a better hitter from the left side, but he is certainly not terrible from the right.
Another essential aspect of Andres Torres' game is his speed. The Giants' projected 2011 lineup will be one of the slowest in the league. Just last year, Aubrey Huff ranked second in the stolen bases category with just seven. Cody Ross has above average speed, but he has never stolen more than ten bags a season. If the Giants fail to get a speedy shortstop such as Jason Bartlett, Torres will be the only running threat on a team that already struggles to push runs across the plate. His ability to make things happen on the bases is invaluable. For this reason, keeping him out of the lineup is simply not an option.
Torres' final and arguably most important asset is his defense. While he was snubbed of a Gold Glove this year, he was undeniably one of the best outfielders in baseball. His amazing range was crucial when Bruce Bochy chose to surround him with two DH's, Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen. Better yet, he has the ability to play all three positions with ease. According to Ultimate Zone Rating, Andres Torres was 21.2 runs above average in the field in 2010. That number ranks him as the second best defensive player in the game, trailing only Yankees speedster Brett Gardner. Even if Torres continues to flounder while hitting from the right side, his excellent glove work should more than compensate.
When looking only at 2010, Andres Torres appears to be significantly better from the left side. Interestingly enough, this was not always the case. If you remember back to 2009, Torres' offensive production came almost completely from the right side. In limited playing time, he hit a robust .338 from the right and a mere .210 from the left. While both of these numbers are small sample sizes, they show that Andres is capable of being a respectable hitter from the right side. What should we expect from Andres Torres in 2011? His 2010 peripheral stats indicate that he is due for a small resurgence as a right-handed hitter. His right-handed BABIP of .275 was below league average, especially for a man of his speed. He actually hit more line drives and fewer pop-ups from the right side. It is reasonable to expect that Andres Torres will not have a significant platoon split next year. He may be a better hitter from the left side, but he is certainly not terrible from the right.
Another essential aspect of Andres Torres' game is his speed. The Giants' projected 2011 lineup will be one of the slowest in the league. Just last year, Aubrey Huff ranked second in the stolen bases category with just seven. Cody Ross has above average speed, but he has never stolen more than ten bags a season. If the Giants fail to get a speedy shortstop such as Jason Bartlett, Torres will be the only running threat on a team that already struggles to push runs across the plate. His ability to make things happen on the bases is invaluable. For this reason, keeping him out of the lineup is simply not an option.
Torres' final and arguably most important asset is his defense. While he was snubbed of a Gold Glove this year, he was undeniably one of the best outfielders in baseball. His amazing range was crucial when Bruce Bochy chose to surround him with two DH's, Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen. Better yet, he has the ability to play all three positions with ease. According to Ultimate Zone Rating, Andres Torres was 21.2 runs above average in the field in 2010. That number ranks him as the second best defensive player in the game, trailing only Yankees speedster Brett Gardner. Even if Torres continues to flounder while hitting from the right side, his excellent glove work should more than compensate.
Friday, November 26, 2010
Twins Win Bidding for Nishioka. Good News for Giants?
The Twins have won the bidding for Japanese middle-infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka. This could be good news for the Giants, though.
Nishioka is said to be a better fit at second base, but the Giants are looking for a guy who can play shortstop well. In 2010, Nishioka posted a slash line of .346/.423/.482, but that was in all likelihood a big fluke, as he had a BABIP of .389... Before that, his previous best was .300/.366/.463...This article by Patrick Newman of Fangraphs basically likens Nishioka to Chone Figgins and Ryan Theriot, both of whom had unimpressive campaigns in 2010. So Nishioka isn't that great...throw in the fees for bidding and signing him to a contract, and it's definitely too high of a price to pay for a relatively weak shortstop.
The good news here is that this increases the likelihood that J.J. Hardy becomes available on the trade market. Hardy is one of the best shortstop options currently available: he's one of the best defensive shortstops in the majors, with a career UZR/150 of 11.0, and his bat has great offensive upside. From 2007-2008, Hardy belted a total of 50 home runs, although he hasn't come near those numbers in the past couple of seasons. However, his Bill James projections see him hitting .263/.328/.425 next year with 16 home runs. Throw in the superb defense that he'll inevitably provide, and that is an extremely valuable shortstop. Even with his .268/.320/.394 slash line in 101 games in 2010, he managed to produce 2.4 WAR. Project that over a full season and his 2010 worth is at 3.5-4.0 WAR. But he's projected to improve upon those numbers. At this point, the Giants probably wouldn't even have to give up much to get him.
His excellent defense and significant offensive potential warrant serious consideration. A lineup of Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff, Freddy Sanchez, J.J. Hardy, Pablo Sandoval, Mark DeRosa, Andres Torres, and Cody Ross is a legitimate offense. Pair that with the incredible rotation that the Giants have, and I think they have the tools to win many games. And that's not even considering the eventual call-up of Brandon Belt.
Nishioka is said to be a better fit at second base, but the Giants are looking for a guy who can play shortstop well. In 2010, Nishioka posted a slash line of .346/.423/.482, but that was in all likelihood a big fluke, as he had a BABIP of .389... Before that, his previous best was .300/.366/.463...This article by Patrick Newman of Fangraphs basically likens Nishioka to Chone Figgins and Ryan Theriot, both of whom had unimpressive campaigns in 2010. So Nishioka isn't that great...throw in the fees for bidding and signing him to a contract, and it's definitely too high of a price to pay for a relatively weak shortstop.
The good news here is that this increases the likelihood that J.J. Hardy becomes available on the trade market. Hardy is one of the best shortstop options currently available: he's one of the best defensive shortstops in the majors, with a career UZR/150 of 11.0, and his bat has great offensive upside. From 2007-2008, Hardy belted a total of 50 home runs, although he hasn't come near those numbers in the past couple of seasons. However, his Bill James projections see him hitting .263/.328/.425 next year with 16 home runs. Throw in the superb defense that he'll inevitably provide, and that is an extremely valuable shortstop. Even with his .268/.320/.394 slash line in 101 games in 2010, he managed to produce 2.4 WAR. Project that over a full season and his 2010 worth is at 3.5-4.0 WAR. But he's projected to improve upon those numbers. At this point, the Giants probably wouldn't even have to give up much to get him.
His excellent defense and significant offensive potential warrant serious consideration. A lineup of Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff, Freddy Sanchez, J.J. Hardy, Pablo Sandoval, Mark DeRosa, Andres Torres, and Cody Ross is a legitimate offense. Pair that with the incredible rotation that the Giants have, and I think they have the tools to win many games. And that's not even considering the eventual call-up of Brandon Belt.
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Is Jason Bartlett a Good Fit for the San Francisco Giants?
The Giants, along with the Nationals and Orioles, have interest in Jason Bartlett. The Rays reportedly would be looking for young bullpen arms in return. So...would Bartlett be a good fit for the Giants?
Let's start off by acknowledging that the Giants don't need a great shortstop, or even a good one. All they need is somebody who can maybe cover a little range out there, and get hits at a decent clip (maybe .280). They have depth at most other positions, so they can afford to have a relatively weak shortstop.
When we looked at potential shortstops earlier, here was the verdict on Bartlett:
The one great thing that Bartlett brings to the table is speed. In 721 career games, he's stolen 100 bases. Back in 2009, he stole 30 bases. In 2010, that regressed to a mere 11 stolen bases, but his Bill James projections for 2011 have him at 17 stolen bases. How many Giants can truly steal? Andres Torres. That's it. Bartlett would add depth to the Giants' speed department.
His defense, as mentioned, is on a steady decline. However, he was a grossly uncharacteristic 9.3 range runs below average in 2009. It's likely that he wouldn't reach that mark again. I mean, could his range really be that bad? If Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria were able to cover decent range at shortstop for the Giants, I don't see how a speedy guy like Bartlett could be much worse.
I'm not well-versed on the arbitration process, but after making $4MM in 2010, and putting up dismal numbers, he's not going to make a lot of money. Maybe at the most $6MM for 2011 (but I seriously doubt he'd make that much...). If he matches that projected .279/.345/.380 slash line in 2011, plays average defense, and steals a few bases here and there, he'll be well worth $6MM.
So, is Jason Bartlett a good fit for the San Francisco Giants? Yes. The only question is whether or not the Giants would have to give up a lot in order to acquire him. After a mediocre 2010 though, he probably won't be too costly.
Let's start off by acknowledging that the Giants don't need a great shortstop, or even a good one. All they need is somebody who can maybe cover a little range out there, and get hits at a decent clip (maybe .280). They have depth at most other positions, so they can afford to have a relatively weak shortstop.
When we looked at potential shortstops earlier, here was the verdict on Bartlett:
The Tampa Bay Rays seem to have a surplus of young middle infield options with Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez, meaning that Bartlett is potentially expendable. After an astounding 2009 that saw him hit .320/.389/.490, regression brought him down to an unimpressive .254/.324/.350 in 2010. Bartlett's true offensive talent level is likely somewhere in between. His defense on the other hand, has been on a steady decline, falling to a career worst -13.8 UZR/150 this year. Despite his flaws, Bartlett is an intriguing option for the Giants. Hopefully his reputation as an "all-star shortstop" will not persuade Brian Sabean to part with any top prospects to acquire him.A young bullpen arm like Dan Runzler is not too much of a price to pay for a viable starting shortstop. And taking into account that Bartlett is projected to improve upon these 2010 numbers (his Bill James projections for 2011 have him at a .279/.345/.380 slash line), that is definitely worth it.
The one great thing that Bartlett brings to the table is speed. In 721 career games, he's stolen 100 bases. Back in 2009, he stole 30 bases. In 2010, that regressed to a mere 11 stolen bases, but his Bill James projections for 2011 have him at 17 stolen bases. How many Giants can truly steal? Andres Torres. That's it. Bartlett would add depth to the Giants' speed department.
His defense, as mentioned, is on a steady decline. However, he was a grossly uncharacteristic 9.3 range runs below average in 2009. It's likely that he wouldn't reach that mark again. I mean, could his range really be that bad? If Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria were able to cover decent range at shortstop for the Giants, I don't see how a speedy guy like Bartlett could be much worse.
I'm not well-versed on the arbitration process, but after making $4MM in 2010, and putting up dismal numbers, he's not going to make a lot of money. Maybe at the most $6MM for 2011 (but I seriously doubt he'd make that much...). If he matches that projected .279/.345/.380 slash line in 2011, plays average defense, and steals a few bases here and there, he'll be well worth $6MM.
So, is Jason Bartlett a good fit for the San Francisco Giants? Yes. The only question is whether or not the Giants would have to give up a lot in order to acquire him. After a mediocre 2010 though, he probably won't be too costly.
Monday, November 15, 2010
The Great Nate Debate
Guest post by Zachary Chiang.
Everyone knows that Buster Posey is a very talented young player. Another article praising his offensive prowess, defensive instinct, and unheralded leadership would simply be redundant. His highly anticipated debut did not disappoint, and his overall performance went above and beyond expectations. In the wake of the rookie catcher's amazing season, it is important to remember that not every transition to the big leagues is quite as smooth as his. Let's take a look at one of the quiet contributors to the Giants' championship run.
At this point in his young career, Nate Schierholtz is best known for his brutal collision with the Chinese catcher in the '08 Beijing Olympics. Once thought to be the right fielder of the future, the Danville native was denied regular playing time with the big league club even after hitting .320/.363/.594 with 18 HRs in 93 games at the AAA level. While most Giants fans hold Nate's defensive skills in high regard, many seem to have varying opinions of his offensive ability. Some see him as a slap hitter with value only as a fourth outfielder, while others believe his star potential has been stunted by his limited playing time. Realistically, if Nate became more consistent, he would be a solid hitter, similar to David DeJesus.
A look at Nate's stats year by year turns up unimpressive results, but even with an abyssal line of .242/.311/.366 in 2010, there are bright spots to be picked out. Back on May 6th, he peaked out at .381/.458/.587 with a stellar 3 for 4 day. In June of '09, he hit .375 and people wanted to install him as high as third in the order. Even in his impressive '08 call up, he produced 1.2 WAR by pounding out 10 extra base hits in a mere 19-game stretch. With respect to small sample size, it is obvious that Nate is prone to streakiness. There are several months in which he hit under .200 with no sign of power whatsoever. However, it is appalling to think that the Giants could not find him regular playing time during their mediocre '07 and '08 seasons. Who knows what he could have accomplished as a regular the last three or four years?
Next year, Andres Torres and Cody Ross are locked into starting outfield roles. If Schierholtz were to land the last spot, Ross would be shifted to left as he was in the playoffs. Unfortunately, this scenario seems to be very improbable. Mark DeRosa will be back, and possibly return to left field. Aaron Rowand may have accepted a bench role this year, but it seems unlikely that he'll start the year there. Lastly, there still is the possibility of re-signing veteran leader Pat Burrell or picking up another free agent outfielder. As usual, 2011 will be an uphill battle for Nate. He must show management that he can play not only as well, but better than the veterans who will continue to block his way.
Do you have a strong opinion on Nate Schierholtz? We encourage you to comment below.
Everyone knows that Buster Posey is a very talented young player. Another article praising his offensive prowess, defensive instinct, and unheralded leadership would simply be redundant. His highly anticipated debut did not disappoint, and his overall performance went above and beyond expectations. In the wake of the rookie catcher's amazing season, it is important to remember that not every transition to the big leagues is quite as smooth as his. Let's take a look at one of the quiet contributors to the Giants' championship run.
At this point in his young career, Nate Schierholtz is best known for his brutal collision with the Chinese catcher in the '08 Beijing Olympics. Once thought to be the right fielder of the future, the Danville native was denied regular playing time with the big league club even after hitting .320/.363/.594 with 18 HRs in 93 games at the AAA level. While most Giants fans hold Nate's defensive skills in high regard, many seem to have varying opinions of his offensive ability. Some see him as a slap hitter with value only as a fourth outfielder, while others believe his star potential has been stunted by his limited playing time. Realistically, if Nate became more consistent, he would be a solid hitter, similar to David DeJesus.A look at Nate's stats year by year turns up unimpressive results, but even with an abyssal line of .242/.311/.366 in 2010, there are bright spots to be picked out. Back on May 6th, he peaked out at .381/.458/.587 with a stellar 3 for 4 day. In June of '09, he hit .375 and people wanted to install him as high as third in the order. Even in his impressive '08 call up, he produced 1.2 WAR by pounding out 10 extra base hits in a mere 19-game stretch. With respect to small sample size, it is obvious that Nate is prone to streakiness. There are several months in which he hit under .200 with no sign of power whatsoever. However, it is appalling to think that the Giants could not find him regular playing time during their mediocre '07 and '08 seasons. Who knows what he could have accomplished as a regular the last three or four years?
Next year, Andres Torres and Cody Ross are locked into starting outfield roles. If Schierholtz were to land the last spot, Ross would be shifted to left as he was in the playoffs. Unfortunately, this scenario seems to be very improbable. Mark DeRosa will be back, and possibly return to left field. Aaron Rowand may have accepted a bench role this year, but it seems unlikely that he'll start the year there. Lastly, there still is the possibility of re-signing veteran leader Pat Burrell or picking up another free agent outfielder. As usual, 2011 will be an uphill battle for Nate. He must show management that he can play not only as well, but better than the veterans who will continue to block his way.
Do you have a strong opinion on Nate Schierholtz? We encourage you to comment below.
BUSTER POSEY: 2010 ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Buster Posey v. Jason Heyward: 2010 Rookie of the Year
Tomorrow is the day. After one of the best seasons in the history of the Giants franchise -- a lot of the credit due to Buster Posey, of course -- the world will finally know whether or not Buster Posey is the Rookie of the Year. The Giants have been overlooked many times this season. They weren't expected to win the NL West. They weren't expected to win the NLDS. They weren't expected to win the NLCS. And most importantly, they weren't expected to win the World Series. When Gold Glove Awards were announced, the Giants once again were overlooked. Andres Torres, arguably the best defensive outfielder in the National League, was not given the award for his superb outfield defense. Instead, Carlos Gonzalez got it. It's easy to shake most of these off. It simply made the Giants World Series victory all the better -- the fact that they were considered underdogs; Andres Torres' not being granted a Gold Glove Award was more of a personal hit, because I, among many other Giants fans, felt that he deserved recognition for his work out there.
But tomorrow, the Baseball Writers' Association of America can make it all right. Their voting will be announced at 11 AM (Pacific time) on Monday. As we await this sacred announcement, I would like to take one last look at the 2010 seasons of Jason Heyward and Buster Posey.
Batting Average
Posey - .305
Heyward - .277
Walk Rate
Posey - 6.8%
Heyward - 14.6%
ISO
Posey - .200
Heyward - .179
K Rate
Posey - 13.5%
Heyward - 24.6%
HR/AB
Posey - 18/406
Heyward - 18/520
SB/CS
Posey - 0/2
Heyward - 11/6
WAR
Posey - 3.9
Heyward - 5.0
My biased opinion: Posey deserves the award. He is a better hitter -- better contact rate and better raw power (better ISO). To do that, on top of catching the best pitching staff in baseball is just remarkable. Catchers don't get enough respect, but what they do every day takes a real tear on their body. It requires intense focus and reaction time. Heyward has the upper hand in speed and his walk rate is quite impressive, but taking into account the fact that Posey is a catcher, I'd say Posey deserves the award.
Tomorrow, the Baseball Writers' Association of America can make it all right. They can reward Posey for one of the best rookie seasons of all time -- it's not very often that a rookie catcher leads their team to a World Series title, let alone the first World Series title for that franchise in over 50 years. For now, the demi-god known as Gerald Demp Posey III will have to wait to be honored.
NOTE: Keep in mind that WAR is a counting statistic, so the Heyward has better WAR because he played from day one, as opposed to Posey, who was held in the minors for the first two months of the season.
But tomorrow, the Baseball Writers' Association of America can make it all right. Their voting will be announced at 11 AM (Pacific time) on Monday. As we await this sacred announcement, I would like to take one last look at the 2010 seasons of Jason Heyward and Buster Posey.
Batting Average
Posey - .305
Heyward - .277
Walk Rate
Posey - 6.8%
Heyward - 14.6%
ISO
Posey - .200
Heyward - .179
K Rate
Posey - 13.5%
Heyward - 24.6%
HR/AB
Posey - 18/406
Heyward - 18/520
SB/CS
Posey - 0/2
Heyward - 11/6
WAR
Posey - 3.9
Heyward - 5.0
My biased opinion: Posey deserves the award. He is a better hitter -- better contact rate and better raw power (better ISO). To do that, on top of catching the best pitching staff in baseball is just remarkable. Catchers don't get enough respect, but what they do every day takes a real tear on their body. It requires intense focus and reaction time. Heyward has the upper hand in speed and his walk rate is quite impressive, but taking into account the fact that Posey is a catcher, I'd say Posey deserves the award.
Tomorrow, the Baseball Writers' Association of America can make it all right. They can reward Posey for one of the best rookie seasons of all time -- it's not very often that a rookie catcher leads their team to a World Series title, let alone the first World Series title for that franchise in over 50 years. For now, the demi-god known as Gerald Demp Posey III will have to wait to be honored.
NOTE: Keep in mind that WAR is a counting statistic, so the Heyward has better WAR because he played from day one, as opposed to Posey, who was held in the minors for the first two months of the season.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Poll: Which 1B would you like to see the San Francisco Giants pursue?
It's likely that Aubrey Huff will return to the San Francisco Giants in 2011. He has, however, received offers from several teams. So if he doesn't return, who would you like to see the Giants pursue for first base? Courtesy of MLBTradeRumors.com, here's the full list of first-base options (besides the 34-year-old Huff):
First Basemen
Many of the free-agent first-basemen are old. Some, like Nick Johnson, have injury risk. Others, like Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn, have uninspiring strikeout totals. There seem to be evident weaknesses with all of the above players, but of all of them, who would you most like to see the Giants pursue?
Personally, I would go with Nick Johnson for a very, very cheap contract due to his career .401 OBP. His ability to take walks is something the Giants could use, though his injury risk is tough to ignore. A safer option might be LaRoche, although I doubt he'd want to play at AT&T Park, and he'll never put up bigger numbers than he has in the past (low upside).
Konerko is a proven veteran, but his stock is way too high after finishing second in the AL in home runs in 2010, and I'm very skeptical as to whether or not he'll ever match that production again.
All in all, this is a tough call. The free agent market is stacked with first-basemen, but all of them have injury risks, are in their mid to late-30s, or just don't have great potential. If the opportunity to get Nick Johnson for a very (and I mean very) low cost presented itself, I think he'd be a good fit. He even gets on base against LHP (career .422 OBP) which is good for the Giants, who have several players that had trouble against left-handed pitching in 2010: Pablo Sandoval and Andres Torres are the stand-outs. Again, this would be if he were available for a cheap contract, because his injury risk is very eminent.
So anyway, who would you want the Giants to go after? Answer the poll on the upper right sidebar, or comment with your opinion.
First Basemen
- Garrett Atkins (31)
- Lance Berkman (35)
- Russell Branyan (35)
- Jorge Cantu (29)
- Adam Dunn (31)
- Troy Glaus (34)
- Mike Hessman (33)
- Eric Hinske (33)
- Nick Johnson (32)
- Paul Konerko (35)
- Casey Kotchman (28)
- Mark Kotsay (35)
- Adam LaRoche (31)
- Derrek Lee (35)
- Melvin Mora (39)
- Xavier Nady (32)
- Lyle Overbay (34)
- Carlos Pena (33)
- Robb Quinlan (34)
- Fernando Tatis (36)
- Mike Sweeney (37)
- Ty Wigginton (33)
Many of the free-agent first-basemen are old. Some, like Nick Johnson, have injury risk. Others, like Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn, have uninspiring strikeout totals. There seem to be evident weaknesses with all of the above players, but of all of them, who would you most like to see the Giants pursue?
Personally, I would go with Nick Johnson for a very, very cheap contract due to his career .401 OBP. His ability to take walks is something the Giants could use, though his injury risk is tough to ignore. A safer option might be LaRoche, although I doubt he'd want to play at AT&T Park, and he'll never put up bigger numbers than he has in the past (low upside).
Konerko is a proven veteran, but his stock is way too high after finishing second in the AL in home runs in 2010, and I'm very skeptical as to whether or not he'll ever match that production again.
All in all, this is a tough call. The free agent market is stacked with first-basemen, but all of them have injury risks, are in their mid to late-30s, or just don't have great potential. If the opportunity to get Nick Johnson for a very (and I mean very) low cost presented itself, I think he'd be a good fit. He even gets on base against LHP (career .422 OBP) which is good for the Giants, who have several players that had trouble against left-handed pitching in 2010: Pablo Sandoval and Andres Torres are the stand-outs. Again, this would be if he were available for a cheap contract, because his injury risk is very eminent.
So anyway, who would you want the Giants to go after? Answer the poll on the upper right sidebar, or comment with your opinion.
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