A Distant Third Place?

In a recent ESPN post looking at the 2011 season, Rob Neyer wrote the following:

Which team will be the most surprising in 2011?

There's going to be a great deal of change in the National League West.

I don't expect the Diamondbacks' rebuilding efforts to pay off immediately and the Padres are obviously going to miss Adrian Gonzalez terribly, but it's hard to figure where everyone else ends up.

Still, the Giants might surprise a lot of people by dropping from world champions to third place, and perhaps even a not particularly competitive third place. In 2010, almost everything that could have gone well for them did go well, with a number of Giants enjoying surprisingly good seasons. If there's reason for optimism, it's tied almost solely to the assumption that Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner will continue to thrive in their first full seasons. Will that be enough to balance the presumed regressions of Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres and Jonathan Sanchez, along with the departure of Juan Uribe (who's been replaced by Miguel Tejada)?

We'll know in eight or nine months.

In my personal opinion, it is absolutely essential for a professional sports writer to back up his or her claims with significant statistical evidence. I am all for expressing radical opinions, but when I read ludicrous conclusions based on cherry-picked numbers, or in this case, no numbers at all, it simply ticks me off.

It is reasonable to believe that the Giants will miss the playoffs next year. A third place finish is also within the realm of possibility. But saying that they won't be competitive? Give me a break.

As Neyer points out, the Diamondbacks and the Padres are unlikely to be contenders in the NL West. While it seems that both teams could compete in the near future, we'll save that argument for another day. Eliminating those two leaves the Dodgers and the Rockies, who finished with 83 and 80 wins respectively. With this in mind, it's hard to imagine both teams leaving the Giants in the dust as predicted. Neyer cites various flaws with San Francisco's roster, but clearly, the same circumstances apply to both Los Angeles and Colorado as well.

First is the argument of "uncertainty" concerning rookies Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. While each has their own small blemishes, I can not find any clear signs pointing towards future struggles. Posey's below-average walk rate (6.8%) and Bumgarner's mediocre K/9 (6.97) are hardly worth mentioning. To me, a pair of sophomore slumps for these young stars seems possible, but not probable. On the contrary, as a Dodger fan, I would be worried about Matt Kemp's struggles hitting the fastball, as well as Jonathan Broxton's second half implosion. Similarly, Rockies fans should be concerned about Carlos Gonzalez's unsustainable .384 BABIP and Jhoulys Chacin's high walk tendencies.

Next, we get to the regression dispute. Is it really fair to say that Aubrey Huff will bring the Giants down when rival lineups feature aging veterans Todd Helton and Casey Blake? And while Andres Torres' breakout season seems like an anomaly, the attack on Jonathan Sanchez seems illogical. Luck is a factor throughout the game of baseball, and thus, every team has at least one pitcher that outperforms their peripherals, some more than others. Jon Garland (3.47 ERA, 4.35 xFIP) and Ubaldo Jimenez (2.88 ERA, 3.73 xFIP) are excellent examples of this.

Lastly is the trifle issue of the Giants changing shortstops. While Juan Uribe flashes more power and defensive prowess, Miguel Tejada brings durability and contact abilities to the table. The gap between these two is marginal compared to that of Manny Ramirez and an average left fielder. And while the Rockies did not lose any key players this offseason, they did part with solid contributors Miguel Olivo and Clint Barmes, who combined for 3.6 WAR in 2010.

I believe many will agree with me when I say that writers must look at the bigger picture if they wish to write a relevant article. It is obvious that the success of the Giants will be highly dependent on that of the Dodgers and the Rockies. When Rob Neyer chose to only examine the inadequacies of the Giants through unspecific generalizations, he failed to do the same for their main competition, thus destroying the foundations of his argument. 

Looking Back at the 2010 Giants Projections

To say that 2010 was a season full of surprises would be an understatement: Pablo Sandoval and Tim Lincecum had disappointing sesasons; Mark DeRosa was injured after playing in only 26 games; Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff played far beyond expectations, putting up all-star caliber numbers; and Buster Posey had no trouble whatsoever in adjusting to the majors, becoming an elite catcher from day one (his debut). Lastly, the Giants picked up some phenomenal players on the way, namely Cody Ross, Javier Lopez, and Pat Burrell. Now that we've looked at (and made) projections for the 2011 season, I thought it'd be fun to take a look back at how certain Giants were expected to perform in 2010 (and compare it to their actual performance). This will give context to how surprising 2010 really was. For the purposes of this, I'll use ZiPS projections, one of the most well-respected projection systems out there. If you want to take a look at the 2010 ZiPS projections, they are available here.

Pablo Sandoval
Projected - .320/.368/.516; OPS+ 130
Actual - .268/.323/.409; OPS+ 95

Aubrey Huff
Projected - .270/.330/.448; OPS+ 102
Actual - .290/.385/.506; OPS+ 138

Aaron Rowand
Projected - .273/.335/.431; OPS+ 100
Actual - .230/.281/.378; OPS+ 75

Buster Posey
Projected - .263/.343/.398; OPS+ 95
Actual - .305/.357/.505; OPS+ 129

Freddy Sanchez
Projected - .296/.331/.414; OPS+ 95
Actual - .292/.342/.397; OPS+ 98

Edgar Renteria
Projected - .280/.336/.388; OPS+ 90
Actual - .276/.332/.374; OPS+ 90

Juan Uribe
Projected - .269/.311/.442; OPS+ 95
Actual - .248/.310/.440; OPS+ 99

Andres Torres
Projected - .254/.315/.397; OPS+ 86
Actual - .268/.343/.479; OPS+ 119

As can be seen from these comparisons, which look at only eight of the Giants, there were many surprises. Torres, Huff, and Posey far exceeded expectations; on the other hand, Rowand and Sandoval far underperformed. All in all, the Giants ended up playing much better than expected, taking home a World Series trophy with an offense that, before the season began, was the subject of ample criticism.

Pat the BBat [sic]

I recently got a subscription to MLB.TV, and as such, watched the first game of the World Series once more. What I mostly got out of it was a refreshed confidence in Pat Burrell. Burrell didn't do much in the game, striking out thrice (yes, I just said 'thrice') in three at-bats; yet, I feel as though he played a crucial role in helping the Giants win the game. The one thing he did in that game: draw a walk.

It wasn't just any walk, though; it was a walk from Cliff Lee. Coming into the at-bat, Lee had walked just one hitter in the postseason. In fact, during the entire season, Lee allowed a mere 18 walks for a sparkling BB/9 of 0.76...

So Burrell comes to the plate in the bottom of the fifth inning with two outs, and the game at a close 3-2. If he were to strike out then and there, well, the game would remain tight, and who knows what would've happened? Lee would've exited the inning without much damage -- just an RBI double to Freddy Sanchez -- and it would have been torturous. But Burrell didn't strike out. He worked the count, something that's very difficult to do against the almighty Cliff Lee. He worked the count full, then he drew a walk. Not only did he get several pitches out of Lee (I believe the best way to attack Lee is to raise his pitch count as soon as possible), but he extended the inning. And guess who came up after him? The NLCS MVP. I don't like to place importance on the intangibles, but I believe this momentum was crucial. If you're Lee, you had a chance to get out of the inning, and failed. Not only did you fail, but you wasted eight (or was it seven?) pitches in doing so. And now, as you're losing the first game of the World Series by a score of 3-2, you must face Cody Ross, the NLCS MVP, with two runners on. Oh yeah, and in the midst of your tense battle with Pat Burrell, your manager sent Darren O'Day to go warm up, implying that he doesn't completely trust that you can get out of the inning. Well, maybe, just maybe, that walk gave the Giants huge momentum.

Because after that walk, Ross and Aubrey Huff hit RBI singles, knocking Lee out of the game. Then O'Day came in to relieve him, and gave up a three-run homer to Juan Uribe.

Had Burrell struck out to end the inning, the Giants would be winning 3-2. Instead, they finished the inning with an 8-2 lead, and more importantly, Cliff Lee sulking on the bench. Thinking about this, I'm able to ignore the fact that he was atrocious overall in the World Series, and had a WPA of -9.5% for Game One. That walk just meant more to me than the numbers, even though it's seemingly illogical.

I'm admittedly biased because I have a love affair with walks. Perhaps it's because I've been so deprived of walks with players like Bengie Molina, while the team across the bay has high-walk players like Daric Barton (who had the highest walk rate in the majors), and now Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui. But I digress.

That walk, in spite of all of the other at-bats Burrell had in the World Series -- which, I'll admit, were difficult to watch -- makes me happy to have Burrell returning to San Francisco.

Walks are highly critical yet underappreciated. They don't carry the same excitement as a hit, but they're still invaluable. For perspective: the Giants had the tenth-lowest walk rate in the majors in 2010. Of the nine teams with worse walk rates than the Giants, zero made the playoffs. Now, of course, correlation does not imply causation. But certainly, it means something, that not one of the nine teams with the worst walk rates in the majors made the playoffs.

In terms of walks, Huff and Burrell carried the Giants, with respective rates of 12.4% and 13.8%. Huff's rate will probably decline, as it was his first-ever 10+% walk rate, so Burrell (career 14.3% walk rate) will need to carry the team in that aspect.

I love that he walks so much, as it makes him an asset to the team. (In fact, I love it so much, that I'm willing to ignore the fact that he has more World Series rings than hits.) Then, I think about the fact that he's coming back on a one-year $1MM deal without any incentives. And I want to construct brilliant prose in honor of Pat the Bat's greatness...perhaps a take-off on the Cat in the Hat. It's just begging to be written. Ah, but I'm not that creative. So I'll just leave this picture here, for all to admire.

Juan Uribe as an LA Dodger

Because I haven't really talked about it...

Yes, we could whine and complain that Juan Uribe has left the Giants for the most evil franchise in sports -- the Los Angeles Dodgers. But here are the facts...the guy helped bring us a championship. He had that awesome walk-off sac fly in Game Four of the NLCS, and the key home run in Game Six of the NLCS. Furthermore, because he's left the Giants for the Dodgers, the Giants don't have to be paying him $20MM for the next three years.

In essence, I'm glad he brought us a title, and I'm glad that we don't have to be paying him for the next three years -- while he undoubtedly declines. Forgive me for this blasphemy, but I must say -- I still like the guy. It's hard not to, looking back on the season.

Are we to hate Juan Marichal for ending his career on the Dodgers? (Although, in all fairness, he didn't go straight to the Dodgers, and he only lasted six innings...).

I guess the point is, yes, I hate the Dodgers, but we should be looking back and appreciating all that Uribe did for the Giants, and furthermore, appreciate that he'll be taking a chunk out of the Dodgers payroll for the next few years.

A more positive take on Miguel Tejada

Because I'm capable of being positive...

Here's what I said about Miguel Tejada on November 24:

So to sum it up, Tejada's defense is pretty mediocre. His power has declined to a point where it's just below average for a shortstop. He rarely walks. He can't cover much range at short. He's pretty much only good for two things: making contact with the ball, and playing in a lot of games. Beyond that, he's just pretty mediocre.

Tejada, however, might be a good option with a little bit of luck. If the Giants sign him to one of those bargain contracts -- the maximum risk should be 1yr/$3MM -- and Tejada has a resurgence, much like that which they saw out of Huff or Burrell, he could just be worth it. He's probably good for anywhere between 1-3 WAR. For $3MM, that's worth it.

Do I want Tejada? Not really. I'd rather have Juan Uribe, Jason Bartlett, Marco Scutaro, J.J. Hardy, Orlando Cabrera. But if they can manage to get him on one of those bargain contracts, he could just surprise people. He should not be a player that the Giants are considering at this point, but as a last-minute cheap option? I say go for it.

The one thing I must say is that Tejada is due for a resurgence. He had an uncharacteristically poor .269/.312/.381 slash line in 2010, and will likely bounce back. He won't be incredible. But he might just bounce back to the point where he's actually a legitimately good option for starting shortstop. With a little bit of luck, he could be a decent shortstop.

Oh yeah, and I change my mind. I would not prefer Orlando Cabrera over Miguel Tejada.

Giants Sign Miguel Tejada for $6.5MM

The Giants just agreed to sign Miguel Tejada to a 1yr/$6.5MM contract. I am not even joking...

Yesterday, I defended Tejada as an option in an argument with a friend. I'll admit it. I cited three reasons as to why:

• Durable (he's averaged 158 games each season since 1999). Yes, he's going into his age-37 season. But I figured that wouldn't matter, given his durability in the past. 
• Due for a resurgence (his 2010 season seems to me like an outlier, and he could likely hit more like the player he was in 2009) 
• Cheap. I figured he'd be a last-minute option, and the Giants could get him for $3MM. After all, he was signed to a one-year $6MM deal in 2010, and performed worse than he ever has. I figured he'd receive quite a pay decrease. Man, was I wrong. 

Brian Sabean panicked. He saw the Cardinals acquire Ryan Theriot. He knew that he couldn't get Stephen Drew nor Jose Reyes. He knew Derek Jeter was not a legitimate possibility. Most importantly, he saw the Dodgers acquire NLCS hero Juan Uribe. J.J. Hardy was probably not easily accessible, nor was Jason Bartlett I suppose (there are speculations that the Rays wanted Sergio Romo...). So Sabes acted fast. Too fast. And he gave Miguel Tejada twice as much money as he deserves. 

I don't dislike Tejada as the Giants' starting shortstop, and maybe I'm crazy because of it. After all, he produced 1.4 WAR in 59 games with the Padres. Obviously, that's a partial product of small sample size. But he's not terrible. He could easily produce 2 WAR for the Giants, which would render him, in some eyes, an average shortstop.

But this is not how the Giants succeed. They succeed by getting those bargain contracts, like the $6MM that they had to shed out for the combination of Aubrey Huff and Juan Uribe in 2010. And it got them to the World Series. 

This is a stupid deal, not because Tejada is bad -- although it would be nice if the Giants got a player that wasn't nearing 40 years of age -- it's that they gave him $6.5MM. I think, in terms of WAR, he could very possibly meet that value (or even exceed it). He produced 1.3 WAR last year, his worst season ever, and that's valued at near $6.5MM. So I don't doubt that he can live up to the contract.

But again, that's not how the Giants succeed. They need players to be worth more than their contract. For $3MM, I would love to have Tejada. Of course, I would appreciate if the Giants had a decent back-up plan, for the possibility that Tejada gets injured or just plain sucks, but I would have been fine with a one-year $3MM deal. Even in spite of his declining power, his poor walk rates, his terrible defensive range, and his age.

This contract can be filed under Brian Sabean's terrible contracts, along with the Aaron Rowand contract, the Dave Roberts contract, and the Barry Zito contract. It won't harm the Giants too much, but it was an obvious mistake. 

I can now feel content in going back to criticizing Sabean. Everybody fell in love with him when the Giants won the World Series, although I felt that he was receiving too much credit. Hopefully, people will be able to recognize that not all of his moves are brilliant, like the acquisitions of Cody Ross and Pat Burrell. Hopefully, people will realize that Tejada is receiving more money than he deserves and more money than the Giants needed to pay him. 

If Tejada returns to his 2009 form, I will still hate this contract. To reiterate, it's more money than the Giants needed to pay him.

UPDATE: As Andrew Baggarly notes, "Tejada also has led his league in ground-ball double plays in five of the last seven seasons. Recall that the Giants broke a 70-year-old franchise record for GIDPs in 2010, with Pablo Sandoval pacing the NL." Yikes...

A sad, sad day in San Francisco

The Los Angeles Dodgers have just signed Juan Uribe to a 3yr/$21MM contract. 

And with that, the San Francisco Giants legacy of Uribe has come to an end. It was a fun ride, which culminated in a World Series victory, but it's over.

But now all we're left with is memories...like this. And this. And this.

Uribe has joined the dark side. This really sucks.

Now the Giants have the remaining shortstop options:

• Orlando Cabrera
• Cesar Izturis
• Miguel Tejada
• J.J. Hardy
• Edgar Renteria
• Jason Bartlett
• Marco Scutaro
• Jed Lowrie (not going to happen...)
• Stephen Drew (not going to happen...)
• Jose Reyes (not going to happen...)
• Derek Jeter (not going to happen...)

At least the Dodgers signed him to a three-year deal. I doubt that he will provide much value in 2013. They paid him too much; gave him too many years. But it was the price they had to pay to deprive the Giants of their beloved Uribe. And it sucks.

More Pablo Sandoval...

In a recent article, Mychael Urban said the following:

Pablo Sandoval simply can’t be counted on at this point, so it’s not absurd to see the Giants going with a left-side tag team of Uribe and Tejada, with a little Mark DeRosa and Manny Burriss on the side.

Seriously? I know Pablo Sandoval had a disappointing season, but I find the notion to be ridiculous: that Miguel Tejada, Mark DeRosa, or Emmanuel Burriss are better options than Sandoval playing alongside Juan Uribe. Let's do a little comparison...for the sake of making this unbiased, I will use anonymity...I refuse to even include Burriss in this, because it should be obvious that Sandoval is a better option than him. Burriss has played mediocre defense in his career at short, and has a career slash line of .264/.329/.302; yes, I'm not making this up. Burriss has a career SLG of .302...oh yeah, and he's injury-prone. Let's move on here...

Listed are the following players' 2010 slash lines along with their current ages...

Player A: .194/.279/.258, injured for most of 2010, current age: 35
Player B: .268/.323/.409, current age: 24
Player C: .269/.312/.381, current age: 36

Hmm...so it appears that player B put up similar numbers to player C in 2010, with one exception. Player C is 12 years older. It should be pretty obvious who these players are, but in case you are unaware, A is DeRosa, B is Sandoval, and C is Tejada.

DeRosa is an injury risk, and was terrible when he played in 2010. Even assuming a full recovery, his upside is minimal -- he'll probably max out at 15 home runs, and that's at best. Meanwhile, his third base defense is mediocre, with a career UZR/150 of -5.7, as is his shortstop defense (career UZR/150 of -1.5). So, yes, it's absurd to think that DeRosa is a better option than Sandoval. Oh yeah, and to reiterate, he's 35 years old.

Now Tejada has only played third base in one season, 2010, and he produced -6.9 UZR. Just awful. In all fairness, though, small sample size. At shortstop, however, he has played thousands of games, and his career UZR/150 of -3.4 is mediocre. His offense, meanwhile, was slightly worse than Sandoval's, due to a nauseating 4.4% walk rate, and slightly less power than Sandoval. Oh yeah, and he's 36. Plus, he'd cost extra money because he's a free agent, whereas the Giants already have Sandoval and DeRosa for 2011.

Keep in mind, also, that Sandoval is due for a resurgence. I recommend that you look into this for further reading.

If Sandoval gains another 20 pounds this offseason, and comes back looking like Mo Vaughn in 2003, then yes, send him to the minors. But at this point, taking into account that he's due for at least a slight resurgence, that he has less of an injury history than DeRosa/Burriss, that he's younger than DeRosa/Tejada, and that he's never played atrocious defense, at least by UZR standards (career UZR/150 of -0.5 at third base), he's a better option to play alongside Uribe than DeRosa/Burriss/Tejada.

People are too quick to lose faith in players. Remember in August, when people thought Tim Lincecum's career was quickly coming to an end? Exercise patience, people. Sandoval's 2010 production was that of an average third baseman. He needs to lose weight, but that doesn't mean he's not worthy of the starting job at third.

Twins Win Bidding for Nishioka. Good News for Giants?

The Twins have won the bidding for Japanese middle-infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka. This could be good news for the Giants, though.

Nishioka is said to be a better fit at second base, but the Giants are looking for a guy who can play shortstop well. In 2010, Nishioka posted a slash line of .346/.423/.482, but that was in all likelihood a big fluke, as he had a BABIP of .389... Before that, his previous best was .300/.366/.463...This article by Patrick Newman of Fangraphs basically likens Nishioka to Chone Figgins and Ryan Theriot, both of whom had unimpressive campaigns in 2010. So Nishioka isn't that great...throw in the fees for bidding and signing him to a contract, and it's definitely too high of a price to pay for a relatively weak shortstop.

The good news here is that this increases the likelihood that J.J. Hardy becomes available on the trade market. Hardy is one of the best shortstop options currently available: he's one of the best defensive shortstops in the majors, with a career UZR/150 of 11.0, and his bat has great offensive upside. From 2007-2008, Hardy belted a total of 50 home runs, although he hasn't come near those numbers in the past couple of seasons. However, his Bill James projections see him hitting .263/.328/.425 next year with 16 home runs. Throw in the superb defense that he'll inevitably provide, and that is an extremely valuable shortstop. Even with his .268/.320/.394 slash line in 101 games in 2010, he managed to produce 2.4 WAR. Project that over a full season and his 2010 worth is at 3.5-4.0 WAR. But he's projected to improve upon those numbers. At this point, the Giants probably wouldn't even have to give up much to get him.

His excellent defense and significant offensive potential warrant serious consideration. A lineup of Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff, Freddy Sanchez, J.J. Hardy, Pablo Sandoval, Mark DeRosa, Andres Torres, and Cody Ross is a legitimate offense. Pair that with the incredible rotation that the Giants have, and I think they have the tools to win many games. And that's not even considering the eventual call-up of Brandon Belt.

Miguel Tejada: Giants 2011 Shortstop Option?

The Giants are reportedly one of the teams currently interested in Miguel Tejada. So...what say we delve into the prospect of signing the 37-year-old...

At first, one might think that Tejada provides at least a decent amount of power...after all, the guy has reached the 30-homer plateau four times throughout his career. This, however, is no longer the case. Even for a shortstop, his power is average at best. His 2010 ISO of .112 indicates that he has the same amount of power as Marco Scutaro and Cliff Pennington. In all fairness, though, it was a career-low, and likely an outlier. His Bill James projections see him having an ISO of .136 in 2011, power closer to that of Jhonny Peralta. Nevertheless, it's nothing special, even for a shortstop. Average at best. He's good for 10-15 home runs, though, and can hit his share of doubles.

The one great thing Tejada does have is that he makes contact a lot. His K rate of 10.5% in 2010 was extremely low (although that's often the case with shortstops). If you want a guy who constantly puts the ball in play, Tejada will do that. He doesn't have the speed to beat out a lot of infield hits, however, and doesn't hit the ball with the same force that he used to.

The major problem that I have with Tejada: he doesn't walk. Over the past three years, he's posted walk rates of 3.6%, 2.8%, and 4.4%. This could greatly exacerbate the Giants' overall problems with low walk rates. Walk rates this low are atrocious, especially considering he doesn't have any big numbers to outweigh it.

As for Tejada's defense, he's pretty mediocre. He has a career UZR/150 of -3.4 at shortstop. In 216 games at short over the past two seasons, he's posted a UZR of -12.3 with -14.2 RngR. He just can't cover much range out there. He never has, and going into his age-37 season, one can't expect him to.

There is one standout when examining Tejada. He is extremely durable. He played in 162 games in each season from 2001-2006. Over the past three seasons, he's played in 472 games. If he's good for one thing, it's being out there in the field every single day.

So to sum it up, Tejada's defense is pretty mediocre. His power has declined to a point where it's just below average for a shortstop. He rarely walks. He can't cover much range at short. He's pretty much only good for two things: making contact with the ball, and playing in a lot of games. Beyond that, he's just pretty mediocre.

Tejada, however, might be a good option with a little bit of luck. If the Giants sign him to one of those bargain contracts -- the maximum risk should be 1yr/$3MM -- and Tejada has a resurgence, much like that which they saw out of Huff or Burrell, he could just be worth it. He's probably good for anywhere between 1-3 WAR. For $3MM, that's worth it.

Do I want Tejada? Not really. I'd rather have Juan Uribe, Jason Bartlett, Marco Scutaro, J.J. Hardy, Orlando Cabrera. But if they can manage to get him on one of those bargain contracts, he could just surprise people. He should not be a player that the Giants are considering at this point, but as a last-minute cheap option? I say go for it.

The one thing I must say is that Tejada is due for a resurgence. He had an uncharacteristically poor .269/.312/.381 slash line in 2010, and will likely bounce back. He won't be incredible. But he might just bounce back to the point where he's actually a legitimately good option for starting shortstop. With a little bit of luck, he could be a decent shortstop.

Giants Offer Juan Uribe Arbitration

The Giants offered Uribe arbitration today... more to come.

Is Jason Bartlett a Good Fit for the San Francisco Giants?

The Giants, along with the Nationals and Orioles, have interest in Jason Bartlett. The Rays reportedly would be looking for young bullpen arms in return. So...would Bartlett be a good fit for the Giants?

Let's start off by acknowledging that the Giants don't need a great shortstop, or even a good one. All they need is somebody who can maybe cover a little range out there, and get hits at a decent clip (maybe .280). They have depth at most other positions, so they can afford to have a relatively weak shortstop.

When we looked at potential shortstops earlier, here was the verdict on Bartlett:

The Tampa Bay Rays seem to have a surplus of young middle infield options with Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez, meaning that Bartlett is potentially expendable. After an astounding 2009 that saw him hit .320/.389/.490, regression brought him down to an unimpressive .254/.324/.350 in 2010. Bartlett's true offensive talent level is likely somewhere in between. His defense on the other hand, has been on a steady decline, falling to a career worst -13.8 UZR/150 this year. Despite his flaws, Bartlett is an intriguing option for the Giants. Hopefully his reputation as an "all-star shortstop" will not persuade Brian Sabean to part with any top prospects to acquire him.

A young bullpen arm like Dan Runzler is not too much of a price to pay for a viable starting shortstop. And taking into account that Bartlett is projected to improve upon these 2010 numbers (his Bill James projections for 2011 have him at a .279/.345/.380 slash line), that is definitely worth it.

The one great thing that Bartlett brings to the table is speed. In 721 career games, he's stolen 100 bases. Back in 2009, he stole 30 bases. In 2010, that regressed to a mere 11 stolen bases, but his Bill James projections for 2011 have him at 17 stolen bases. How many Giants can truly steal? Andres Torres. That's it. Bartlett would add depth to the Giants' speed department.

His defense, as mentioned, is on a steady decline. However, he was a grossly uncharacteristic 9.3 range runs below average in 2009. It's likely that he wouldn't reach that mark again. I mean, could his range really be that bad? If Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria were able to cover decent range at shortstop for the Giants, I don't see how a speedy guy like Bartlett could be much worse.

I'm not well-versed on the arbitration process, but after making $4MM in 2010, and putting up dismal numbers, he's not going to make a lot of money. Maybe at the most $6MM for 2011 (but I seriously doubt he'd make that much...). If he matches that projected .279/.345/.380 slash line in 2011, plays average defense, and steals a few bases here and there, he'll be well worth $6MM.

So, is Jason Bartlett a good fit for the San Francisco Giants? Yes. The only question is whether or not the Giants would have to give up a lot in order to acquire him. After a mediocre 2010 though, he probably won't be too costly.

Is Marco Scutaro a Good Fit for the San Francisco Giants?

It was announced this week that the Red Sox would be willing to trade Marco Scutaro. With the Giants in need of a shortstop for 2011, let's take a look at whether or not Scutaro would be a good option...

Scutaro is set to make $5MM in 2011 with an option for 2012, so he's not too expensive. The Red Sox, however, would likely receive something considerable in exchange for Scutaro, as solid shortstops are hard to come by these days.

In 2010, Scutaro put up a slash line of .275/.333/.388 with 11 home runs. His 7.6% walk rate this year was rather disappointing, considering that he had a 13.2% walk rate in 2009, but it will likely regress toward his career 9% walk rate in 2011, which is pretty good. His bat overall is nothing too impressive...He has relatively weak power, although for a shortstop, that's average. He's essentially a contact hitter -- he had a very low 11.2% K rate in 2010. Anyway, he likely wouldn't be a big presence in the lineup. Nevertheless, he's a serious upgrade over the performance the Giants received from Edgar Renteria over the past two years.

The one nice part about Scutaro is that he's extremely durable, having played in at least 140 games in each of the last three years, and at least 100 games in each of the last seven years. After having a shortstop endure a plethora of injuries over the past two years (Renteria), it would be nice to have a guy like Scutaro.

Scutaro's defense, much like his offense, is nothing too impressive. He's better suited for second base, but serviceable at shortstop. He doesn't cover a whole lot of range, but would likely give the Giants similar defense to that which they've gotten out of Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria over the past two years.

In conclusion, Scutaro is neither a defensive nor offensive star. He is, however, solid in both those categories, and considering that he's a shortstop, that's very acceptable. For $5MM, he would definitely be worth it. The one question seems to be what the Giants would have to give up in order to acquire him. However, considering the other shortstop possibilities -- like Orlando Cabrera and Edgar Renteria -- Scutaro is an attractive option.

A Look at Potential Shortstops

Guest post by Zachary Chiang. 

With Aubrey Huff's seemingly imminent return and adequate options to fill the possible void in left field, the Giants' biggest offseason concern is undoubtedly the acquisition of a capable shortstop. As is the case with most years, the market for middle infielders is quite uninspiring. In general, shortstop is not considered an offensively-minded position, so finding a potent option can prove quite a challenge. Fortunately for Giants fans, Brian Sabean seems to do his best work in the bargain bin. Here is a look at several of his options.

Possible Returns

Juan Uribe: Uribe is looking at a luxurious multiyear deal this winter after originally settling for a return in the utility role with the Giants in 2010.  He provides both power and versatility, hitting 24 home runs while spending time at 2B, SS, and 3B. At shortstop, he was slightly above average with a 3.3 UZR/150.  Although Uribe is a fan favorite and seems to enjoy playing in San Francisco, it's unknown if he will accept another discount. While Giants fans are enamored with his majestic home runs, his slash line of .248/.310/.440 is only around league average. While there are no clear signs pointing towards regression, the Giants would be foolish to overpay him for this year's performance.

Edgar Renteria: Last week, Renteria announced he would like to play another year, even if it means switching to second base. Following an injury-plagued season in which he played just 72 games, Renteria can not be considered a durable option. Postseason heroics aside, he posted a forgettable slash line of .276/.332/.374 in 2010. His defense is still passable, but his splendid 6.9 UZR/150 is probably misleading.  Although it is almost certain that he will not return to the Giants, it will be intriguing to see how the rest of Edgar Renteria's illustrious career plays out.

Free Agents

Orlando Cabrera: Cabrera is coming off a down year with the Cincinnati Reds, posting a slash line of .263/.303/.354. Although there are many question marks about his diminished offensive ability, there are several factors that make him an attractive backup plan.  Although he played in only 120 games this year, Cabrera has been extremely durable throughout his career, averaging 156 games from 2001 to 2009. He plays quality defense (5.3 UZR/150) and provides a little speed on the bases. Most importantly, Cabrera will be cheap, as he received just two million last winter when he was coming off a better campaign. Bill James projects Cabrera to hit .268 with 7 home runs and 13 steals in 2011. If the Giants let Uribe walk, expect them to at least check in on Cabrera.

Derek Jeter: Derek Jeter will be a Yankee next year. There is no chance that the Yankees don't sign him, especially with a weak class of free agent shortstops. But if Jeter was available, would he be an attractive option to the Giants? Probably not. After posting a career worst, 270/.340/.370 line, Jeter's career seems to be on the decline once again. As countless writers have pointed out, he has won yet another Gold Glove with an atrocious -5.4 UZR/150. Other than the intangibles he brings to the field, it seems that Derek Jeter's ability will not justify the contract he is looking to command. However, the Yankees will continue to bring him back out of respect, until he finally decides to call it quits.

Trade Candidates

Jason Bartlett: The Tampa Bay Rays seem to have a surplus of young middle infield options with Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez, meaning that Bartlett is potentially expendable. After an astounding 2009 that saw him hit .320/.389/.490, regression brought him down to an unimpressive .254/.324/.350 in 2010. Bartlett's true offensive talent level is likely somewhere in between. His defense on the other hand, has been on a steady decline, falling to a career worst -13.8 UZR/150 this year. Despite his flaws, Bartlett is an intriguing option for the Giants. Hopefully his reputation as an "all-star shortstop" will not persuade Brian Sabean to part with any top prospects to acquire him.

Jed Lowrie / Marco Scutaro: With two viable shortstops and Dustin Pedroia firmly entrenched at second base, the Red Sox may look to make a move this winter. Lowrie, a Stanford alum, will be more highly sought due to his promising  .287/.381/.526 line this year, albeit in only 55 games. Scutaro has significantly less upside, but he is a solid player that is an asset compared to a replacement level player. Both are somewhat average on defense with respect to UZR data. If the Red Sox choose to commit to Lowrie, they will pay someone to take Scutaro for salary relief. It will take couple of quality prospects to pry Lowrie away, but his long term potential is tremendous.

From Japan

Tsuyoshi Nishioka: Contrary to earlier reports, Seibu Lions shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima will not be posted this offseason, but Tsuyoshi Nishioka of the Chiba Lotte Marines may still be headed to America. The 2B/SS led the league in hitting with a robust line of .346/.423/.482. He can also utilize his good speed on the bases, as he swiped 22 in 2010. Bobby Valentine has been quoted saying that Nishioka profiles as a second baseman in MLB, despite his two Gold Gloves in Japan, one of which was awarded for his work as a shortstop. It should be noted that he has played most of his profession career on artificial turf surfaces, like many other Japanese infielders. If the Giants became interested in acquiring Nishioka, they would first have to bid for the right to negotiate with him, as is the case with all players that come through the posting system.

A few notes...

Edgar Renteria said he'd like to return to the Giants.

Aubrey Huff hired Ed Hayes as his agent Sunday night.

According to MLBTradeRumors' top 50 free agents post, Aubrey Huff is expected to return to the San Francisco Giants in 2011. Juan Uribe is expected to be an LA Dodger. Lastly, Pat Burrell is expected to end up donning a Padres uni' next year.

Giants Decline Renteria's Option

The Giants officially declined Edgar Renteria's $10.5 million option today. They'll pay him a $500K buyout.

This comes as no surprise...yes,  he won the World Series MVP. But he's plagued with injuries, his legs are not what they used to be (he did steal 34 bases back in 2003), he only managed to hit .259 for the Giants with 8 home runs over 2009 and 2010, and he hasn't been anything special.

He had a few clutch moments with the Giants that were critical. The few that stick out in my mind:

• August 30, 2009 grand slam against the Colorado Rockies (off of Rafael Betancourt)
• April 9, 2010 game-tying homer against the Atlanta Braves (off of Billy Wagner)
• And of course, November 1, 2010 three-run homer against the Texas Rangers (off of Cliff Lee)

He's left his mark in San Francisco Giants franchise history. I'm sure his time as a Giants shortstop is over, though. There is no better time to retire than this year, after winning the World Series MVP.

In other news...Pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in 100 days.

Lastly...Many Giants are nominated for TYIB (This Year in Baseball) Awards.

• Buster Posey is nominated for the TYIB Rookie of the Year Award.
• Brian Wilson is nominated for the TYIB Closer of the Year Award.
• Pat Burrell is nominated for the TYIB X-Factor Player of the Year Award. 
• Andres Torres is not nominated for the TYIB Breakout Player of the Year Award. What gives?
• Brian Sabean is nominated for the TYIB Executive of the Year Award. 
• Bruce Bochy is nominated for the TYIB Manager of the Year Award. 
• Lastly, Cody Ross, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Brian Wilson are all nominees for the TYIB Postseason MVP Award. 

Also...Five Giants plays are nominated for the TYIB Postseason Moment of the Year:

• Lincecum's 14-K NLDS Game One
• Posey's play at the plate in NLCS Game Four
• Renteria's three-run homer against the Rangers in WS Game Five
• Wilson's strikeout of Ryan Howard to send the Giants to the WS 
• And..Juan Uribe's go-ahead shot in Game Six of the NLCS

You can vote for the TYIB Awards here.

WS Game Four Recap

Let me start by saying I was wrong. Travis Ishikawa and Nate Schierholtz didn't have great games. They were a combined 0 for 7. For what it's worth, though, Schierholtz was nabbed of an RBI single by a great Josh Hamilton catch. And, surely, they played a role in Madison Bumgarner's eight-inning three-hit gem. They were solid on defense. Lastly, maybe playing Ishikawa allowed Aubrey Huff to focus on his offense and hit that two-run homer. At the very least, it allowed the Giants to have Huff's bat without the defensive inconsistency he brings (he's a solid defender usually, but is prone to errors).

I was wrong, though. Whatever...Giants won!

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Now, on to the good stuff...Madison K Bumgarner: youngest pitcher ever to win a postseason game for the Giants; youngest pitcher ever to start a World Series game for the Giants; fifth youngest pitcher ever to start a World Series game; Fourth youngest pitcher ever to win a World Series game.

That was the stuff of legends. Eight innings, three hits, two walks, six strikeouts. One Ranger reached second base, and that was only due to an error by Juan Uribe.

Bumgarner achieved a game score of 80. That's the highest game score achieved by a Giant in a World Series since Jack Sanford achieved an 84 in Game Two of the 1962 World Series. That's also the highest game score achieved by a left-handed starter for the Giants in a World Series since Carl Hubbell in Game Four of the 1933 World Series.

He's the youngest left-handed pitcher in history to toss eight or more shutout innings in a World Series start.

From ESPN:

"The Giants are the 5th team in the last 35 years to throw a shutout while allowing only 3 or fewer singles (and no extra-base hits) in a World Series game. Each of the 5 teams are NL teams, and they all went on to win the World Series."

"Buster Posey becomes the 7th catcher in World Series history to hit a home run while catching a shutout."

"The Giants now have 4 shutouts this postseason. That ties the 1998 Yankees and 1905 New York Giants for the most in a single postseason in major-league history."

Best rookie battery in history. Mr. Bumgarner and Mr. Posey. The Bumgarner Battery. The Posey Posse. Hmm...my logo is ingenious. Props to the designer, Zachary Chiang.

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How great is it that the three Giants to drive in runs in this game (Aubrey Huff, Buster Posey, Andres Torres) were the three best offensive players this year for the Giants? Huff had a two-run blast off of Tommy Hunter. Posey had a solo shot to dead center. Andres Torres knocked in a run with an RBI double. It was frustrating when these guys, who have carried this team all year, were struggling at various times during the postseason. They're locked in now.

Why couldn't Edgar Renteria do this during the regular season (besides, of course, the first week)? Three singles and a run scored. I certainly didn't see this one coming.

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I was right about one thing. Madison Bumgarner is much, much, much better than Tommy Hunter. Hunter lasted four innings, allowing two earned runs. He threw a total of 83 pitches though. Bumgarner went twice as many innings, throwing 106 pitches.

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All the Giants need to do is avoid a three-game losing streak. That's it. And then they're World Champions. They have the upper hand in a lot of ways. They have home-field advantage for two of the next three games. Their bullpen is more rested (Rangers used five pitchers in Game Four). And they have the psychological advantage for tomorrow -- their starter beat the Rangers' starter (Tim Lincecum beat Cliff Lee) in Game One.

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October is over, and with it goes Rosstober. Cody Ross' hit streak came to a halt in Game Four. It's disappointing, but he'll definitely put together several more streaks in 2011. So now comes the question? What will next month be -- Posember, Huffember, Torresember, Lincenember? We'll just have to wait and see...

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Pat Burrell's playing tomorrow. I'm not personally expecting much, but I'm hoping for a lot. One day of rest can do wonders.

NLCS Game Six Recap

WE'RE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES!

NLCS Game Four Recap

Entering Wednesday's game, Buster Posey and Aubrey Huff had tallied a combined three hits in the NLCS. They broke out in Game Four with a combined seven hits...now that's the Huff and Posey we've all come to know and love.

This is how the Giants were meant to win ballgames...with the help of the two guys who drove their offense this year. Buster Posey and Aubrey Huff are the reason the Giants got this far. Finally, these first-time playoff participants are carrying their 2010 performance into the postseason.

And with that...the Giants are ONE GAME AWAY FROM THE WORLD SERIES.

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Game Summary:

First inning: Buster Posey knocks in Freddy Sanchez for the first run.

Third inning: Buster Posey hits an RBI double to give the Giants a 2-0 lead.

Fifth inning: Giants' lead falls apart...Phillies lead off with two consecutive singles, a sac bunt, and another single to bring the score to 2-1. Chase Utley singles, and Madison Bumgarner is then replaced with Santiago Casilla.

Casilla gives up a two-run double to Placido Polanco, intentionally walks Ryan Howard, hits Jayson Werth with a pitch, and allows the fourth run of the inning to score on a wild pitch.

Giants 2 Phillies 4

In the bottom half of the inning, Andres Torres draws a walk. He advances to second on a groundout, and scores on a single by Aubrey Huff.

Sixth inning: After Pat Burrell draws a walk and Cody Ross doubles, Pablo Sandoval gives the Giants a 5-4 lead with a two-run double.

Seventh inning: Javier Lopez pitches a scoreless innning.

Giants fail to score when Pablo Sandoval grounds into a double play with the bases loaded.

Eighth inning: Lopez allows a leadoff double to Ryan Howard. Sergio Romo replaces him, but immediately allows a double to Jayson Werth to tie the game at 5-5.

Ninth inning: Phillies bring in Roy Oswalt to pitch the ninth in a tied ballgame. Huff singles, Posey singles, and Juan Uribe hits a sacrifice fly to deep left field to win the ballgame in walkoff fashion.

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This was the seventh walkoff win for the Giants on the year. Uribe also had one on August 14, against the San Diego Padres. 

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Glad that Andres Torres got some more playing time today. He went one for two, showing signs of breaking out of his slump. With his speed, he was able to manufacture a run, advancing to second on a groundout after his walk, and scoring on a single. He was caught stealing after he singled in the eighth, though...I'll keep saying it: I want him out there in the field and in the starting lineup over Aaron Rowand. Defense is just too valuable. And when Torres gets hot, he's as good as anyone in the game of baseball (or at least, as good as any centerfielder and/or leadoff hitter).  

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Some things you can't see from just the box score:

• Aaron Rowand nailed Carlos Ruiz at home. 
• Madison Bumgarner did a nice job picking Jimmy Rollins off at first base.
• Juan Uribe had a nice defensive play coming off the bench in the ninth inning.

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Buster Posey. He is everything that's good about the San Francisco Giants. Four hits -- including two doubles -- and two RBIs. All while spending nine innings behind the plate. Just an incredible kid. Derek Jeter, step aside! The face of the postseason for the next ten years is right here:

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Let's face it: Bumgarner wasn't spectacular in Game Four...4.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. But he's exceeded expectations. For him to come up this year, post a 3.00 ERA, and still be a vital part of this rotation in the postseason (so much so that he made the postseason roster easily but the Barry Zito and his 7-year $126MM contract couldn't) is incredible. He struck out six, and only gave up three earned runs. Against one of the best offenses in the majors. In a critical game. At age 21. Come on?! Even though the start wasn't great, what he did is pretty amazing. Hopefully this won't be the last time this postseason that he pitches.

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This was definitely the game of the series, and moreover, the game of the year. Everybody contributed: Posey, Ross, Torres, Uribe, Sandoval, Burrell, Huff. 

After watching this game, I can't say that the Phillies have any chance at the World Series. I just wouldn't believe it at this point. In an act of desperation, they used six pitchers today. 

Sure, they have Roy Halladay on the mound, and he is an innings-eater. But the game's in San Francisco. And the Giants have beaten Halladay twice this year. And the Phillies will be facing Tim Lincecum. And even if they win Game Five, they would still have to win the next two games, against very good pitching. I'd be very surprised if the Giants don't win this series. 

But...nothing can be taken for granted at this point.

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Ready for this?

NLCS Game One Recap

Looks like Doctober ended a little early...

Giants with multi-homer postseason games (before today):

Player	Date	Series	Gm#	Tm	Opp	HR
Cody Ross	2010-10-16	NLCS	1	SFG	PHI	2
Jeff Kent	2002-10-24	WS	5	SFG	ANA	2
Rich Aurilia	2002-10-10	NLCS	2	SFG	STL	2
Jeff Kent	1997-10-03	NLDS	3	SFG	FLA	2
Will Clark	1989-10-04	NLCS	1	SFG	CHC	2
Benny Kauff	1917-10-11	WS	4	NYG	CHW	2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/17/2010.

Welcome to the club, Cody Ross.

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Game Summary:

In the third inning, Cody Ross turned on a low-and-inside pitch, knocking it into the left-field stands for a solo home run.

Carlos Ruiz quickly answered in the bottom half of the third, hitting a "just-enough" solo home run to right to tie the game.

In the fourth, Juan Uribe grounded into a fielder's choice with runners on the corners and two outs to end the inning.

In the fifth, Cody Ross hit yet another solo shot...on basically the same pitch, to the same part of the ballpark.

In the sixth, Buster Posey scored on a Pat Burrell double. Nate Schierholtz pinch ran for Pat Burrell, and scored on a Juan Uribe single up the middle.

In the bottom of the inning, Jayson Werth hit a two-run homer (another cheap-y to right field) to make the score 4-3 in the Giants' favor.

The Giants would go onto win the game, thanks to solid relief by Javier Lopez (retired the only two batters he faced: Chase Utley and Ryan Howard) and Brian Wilson (allowed one baserunner in 1.1 innings, while striking out four).

And with that, the Giants effectively disproved the ignorant analysts who figured the Phillies would sweep, probably took a toll on Roy Halladay's confidence -- which was likely at an all-time high coming off of a postseason no-hitter, and set themselves up in prime position for the next few games. It's important to win at least one game in each road set. They needed to win at least one of the first two in Philly. And they'll need to win at least one of the final two in Philly (if those two are played). They can succeed at home, where the Phillies' cheap home runs are merely flyouts.

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I've been thinking this all along, although it hasn't really been talked about much -- at least, what I've heard about the NLCS. Javier Lopez is going to be key. He'll face the big stars -- Utley, Howard, Ibanez...and even other good Phillies hitters aren't RHH (i.e. Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino, who are switch hitters). That leaves Jayson Werth as the only major right-handed threat. So...Lopez is very important. And the Phillies' lineup works in the Giants' favor. Utley and Howard bat back-to-back, so JLo (yes...people have started calling him this) can come in, face the big two lefties for the Giants, and make way for Brian Wilson to come in and work his magic to finish off the game. They might not even need a setup man against this lineup, if it works out that Utley and Howard keep coming up around the eighth/ninth inning. 

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Starting Mike Fontenot at third is a good decision. Pablo Sandoval is a considerable threat at Citizens Bank Park against Brad Lidge, especially in a pressure situation, where he needs to throw strikes. Thus, Fontenot can play throughout the game, give the Giants solid defense and decent speed on the basepaths...and Pablo is available off the bench. It works well this way. Fontenot had a nice stolen base in the ninth inning, although it ultimately didn't amount to anything. 

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Bruce Bochy's managing is often criticized, but he made one key decision (although they were nothing spectacularly creative/brilliant). He pinch ran for Pat Burrell in the sixth inning, which allowed the Giants to score their fourth run of the ballgame when Uribe singled up the middle. If Pat Burrell had been running, he probably wouldn't have scored...that game could have gone into extras. This move would have been highly criticized if Pat Burrell's spot came up in the lineup, and Schierholtz failed to do something. But that run was the difference in the game...and the Giants wouldn't have scored it had Bochy not made the decision to pinch run.

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Solid outing by Lincecum. He was hit hard, especially at the beginning of the game, but ultimately delivered. The eight strikeouts probably helped...7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 HR, 8 K, 3 BB. He also became the first Giant in postseason history to go two consecutive starts with 8+ K. I'll put up the chart of these streaks eventually (if I remember). One Giant, Jesse Barnes back in 1921, went two consecutive starts with 7+ K. 

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Note to Freddy Sanchez/Andres Torres: Now would be a good time to start hitting.

...but, the Giants manage to score enough runs. As long as the pitching's there, they'll have enough of an offense to support it. And that's how they keep winning.

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Just found this on eBay. 

Seriously?