Position: RHP
Opening Day Age: 20
John Sickels' Grade: B
Fangraphs Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0
ZiPS Projection: N/A
When the Giants Come to Town's review
Well, folks, I've done you a disservice, as I haven't been leading you to DrBGiantsFan's When the Giants Come to Town, a San Francisco Giants blog that is extremely well-informed about their farm system. His comments about Zach Wheeler, for example, describe the young prospect perfectly:
When ranking prospects, one has to consider both eventual ceiling and proximity to the majors. Obviously, a player closer to the majors is more likely reach his ceiling, whatever that ceiling is, than a player in the lower minors. I tend to weigh eventual ceiling more heavily than proximity to the majors. That creates a dilemma when comparing players like Brandon Belt and Zack Wheeler. Wheeler was the highest ranking prospect in the Giants system last year who has not graduated to the majors. Despite the early wildness and the injury, Wheeler did nothing to diminish his eventual ceiling as a prospect. The injury was not to his arm, and if anything his secondary stats suggest that his ceiling may be even higher than we thought when he was drafted. The question then, really, is not whether Wheeler stock has decreased, but whether Belt's stock rose so much that he surpassed Wheeler. I still think that Wheeler has the highest ceiling of any prospect in the Giants system, but Belt's ceiling is pretty sweet too, and Belt could be in the majors as soon at 2011 while Wheeler obviously has a way to go, leaving him open to injuries or regression. In my mind, it's a close call. Stay tuned!
We're all well aware of the greatness that is Brandon Belt, but the fact that DrBGiantsFan expects a higher ceiling out of Wheeler should say a lot.
Right now, Wheeler is a raw talent. He struggled with control in low-A in 2010, posting an atrocious 5.83 BB/9. However, that was accompanied by a magnificent 10.74 K/9, and the kid didn't allow a home run all season (58.2 IP). He's got the ability to induce groundballs (63% GB rate), which in addition to his strikeout rate, makes him extremely valuable. In terms of proximity to the majors, Wheeler's got some work to do. He is quite promising though. There's a reason he ranked second on Fangraphs' list of the top ten Giants prospects, and third on John Sickels' list.
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Other posts in the PatP series:
