Down in the Minors: 4/30/11

A look at what's going on in the San Francisco Giants' farm system...

Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects of 2011

Today, Keith Law released his prospect rankings. An insider account is required to view them, but Brandon Belt made the list at 17, and Zach Wheeler came in at 36 (h/t 8th Inning Weirdness). Law also released his Giants top ten, and here's the list:

1. Brandon Belt, 1B
2. Zach Wheeler, SP
3. Gary Brown, OF
4. Francisco Peguero, CF
5. Charlie Culberson, 2B
6. Thomas Neal, OF
7. Ehire Adrianza, SS
8. Eric Surkamp, LHP
9. Heath Hembree, RHP
10. Tommy Joseph, C

LINK: Baseball America - SF Giants Top Ten Prospects

1. Brandon Belt, 1b
2. Zack Wheeler, rhp
3. Gary Brown, of
4. Francisco Peguero, of
5. Ehire Adrianza, ss
6. Brandon Crawford, ss
7. Thomas Neal, of
8. Charlie Culberson, 2b
9. Eric Surkamp, lhp
10. Tommy Joseph, c/1b

Peek at the Prospects: Zach Wheeler

Zach Wheeler
Position: RHP
Opening Day Age: 20
John Sickels' Grade: B
Fangraphs Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0
ZiPS Projection: N/A
When the Giants Come to Town's review

Well, folks, I've done you a disservice, as I haven't been leading you to DrBGiantsFan's When the Giants Come to Town, a San Francisco Giants blog that is extremely well-informed about their farm system. His comments about Zach Wheeler, for example, describe the young prospect perfectly:

When ranking prospects, one has to consider both eventual ceiling and proximity to the majors. Obviously, a player closer to the majors is more likely reach his ceiling, whatever that ceiling is, than a player in the lower minors. I tend to weigh eventual ceiling more heavily than proximity to the majors. That creates a dilemma when comparing players like Brandon Belt and Zack Wheeler. Wheeler was the highest ranking prospect in the Giants system last year who has not graduated to the majors. Despite the early wildness and the injury, Wheeler did nothing to diminish his eventual ceiling as a prospect. The injury was not to his arm, and if anything his secondary stats suggest that his ceiling may be even higher than we thought when he was drafted. The question then, really, is not whether Wheeler stock has decreased, but whether Belt's stock rose so much that he surpassed Wheeler. I still think that Wheeler has the highest ceiling of any prospect in the Giants system, but Belt's ceiling is pretty sweet too, and Belt could be in the majors as soon at 2011 while Wheeler obviously has a way to go, leaving him open to injuries or regression. In my mind, it's a close call. Stay tuned!

We're all well aware of the greatness that is Brandon Belt, but the fact that DrBGiantsFan expects a higher ceiling out of Wheeler should say a lot.

Right now, Wheeler is a raw talent. He struggled with control in low-A in 2010, posting an atrocious 5.83 BB/9. However, that was accompanied by a magnificent 10.74 K/9, and the kid didn't allow a home run all season (58.2 IP). He's got the ability to induce groundballs (63% GB rate), which in addition to his strikeout rate, makes him extremely valuable. In terms of proximity to the majors, Wheeler's got some work to do. He is quite promising though. There's a reason he ranked second on Fangraphs' list of the top ten Giants prospects, and third on John Sickels' list.

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Other posts in the PatP series:

• Brandon Belt
• Francisco Peguero
• Ehire Adrianza

Peek at the Prospects: Brandon Belt

The internet is rife with analysis on the Giants' top prospects -- most notably Fangraphs and Minor League Ball. On January 26, Baseball America will release their San Francisco Giants Top Ten Prospects Scouting Reports. Leading up to that, I thought I'd take a peek at various Giants prospects, referencing the analysis from Fangraphs, Minor League Ball, and the Giants 2011 ZiPS projections. For now, I plan on looking at the following players (in no particular order):

• Brandon Belt
• Francisco Peguero
• Ehire Adrianza
• Zach Wheeler
• Thomas Neal
• Eric Surkamp
• Brandon Crawford
• Gary Brown
• Jarrett Parker
• Charlie Culberson

It's very possible that I'll expand the list, however, and look at others like Hector Sanchez, Jorge Bucardo, Chuckie Jones, etc.

Without further ado, I'll begin with the guy at the top of every Giants prospect list....Brandon Belt. 

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Brandon Belt

Position: 1B

Opening Day Age: 22

John Sickels' Grade: A-

Fangraphs Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5

ZiPS Projection: .266/.357/.440

Belt is the cream of the crop when it comes to the Giants' farm system. He rapidly rose through the Giants' minor league system last year, raking to the tune of .352/.455/.620 slash line in A, AA, and AAA combined. Thanks to mechanical adjustments in his plate approach, the 2009 fifth-rounder was able to display a combination of excellent plate discipline, contact skills, and power. He even stole 22 bases last season; make no mistake, though -- as Marc Hulet of Fangraphs notes, "he succeeded on the base paths due to smart base running as opposed to blazing speed." Belt is the real deal, and should be ready to make an impact in the majors right away in 2011.

I think the following comments speak for themselves...

"Oh yeah, ZiPS loves Brandon Belt and at least in the short term has him as the best 1B prospect in baseball." - Dan Szymborski

"Totally legitimate in my opinion, and second-only to Eric Hosmer among first base prospects." - John Sickels

I've even admittedly gotten caught up in the hype, as I've already launched a Facebook fan page entitled "Brandon Belt: 2011 Rookie of the Year"

For more on Belt, check out his interview with Mychael Urban.

Fangraphs: San Francisco Giants Top 10 Prospects

For the most part, very excited about these guys. Many of them have issues they need to work through (Wheeler's BB/9, Peguero's BB rate, Brown's bat), but they all have good potential.