Do Offensive Numbers have an Effect on Gold Glove Award Voting?

Note: for information on UZR, refer to this. For information on OPS+, refer to this. 

Another year of terrible choices for the Gold Glove Awards has infuriated me to the point that I want to look into whether or not offense really does sway the voting. This isn't very relevant to the Giants, necessarily, although it might explain why Carlos Gonzalez won a Gold Glove (instead of, potentially, Andres Torres).

So here's what I did. I took the top Ultimate Zone Ratings at each position in each respective league. That's seven players in each league, as there is no UZR for catchers and pitchers. I acknowledge the fact that UZR is not at all an ultimate indicator of defensive skills, but it does encompass many important factors - errors, range, arm. So I'm going to use it for this quick study.

Here's the list of players...

AL UZR Team (with their UZRs)
Daric Barton: 12.1
Mark Ellis: 9.9
Kevin Kouzmanoff: 16.1
Alexei Ramirez: 10.8
Brett Gardner: 22.3
Carl Crawford: 18.5
Peter Bourjos: 16.0

NL UZR Team (with their UZRs)
Ike Davis: 10.1
Chase Utley: 10.3
Chase Headley: 16.5
Brendan Ryan: 11.5
Jay Bruce: 20.2
Michael Bourn: 17.6
Andres Torres: 21.2

Now here are the Gold Glove award-winners:

AL GG Team (with their UZRs)
Mark Teixeira: -2.9
Robinson Cano: -0.6
Evan Longoria: 11.1
Derek Jeter: -4.7
Carl Crawford: 18.5
Franklin Gutierrez: 7.3
Ichiro Suzuki: 15.6

NL GG Team (with their UZRs)
Albert Pujols: 1.5
Brandon Phillips: 9.7
Scott Rolen: 10.6
Troy Tulowitzki: 7.1
Carlos Gonzalez: -2.7
Michael Bourn: 17.6
Shane Victorino: 2.6

So, from the results, it looks that generally, UZR leaders were snubbed of Gold Glove awards. Only two of the 14 UZR leaders in this 2010 sample were given Gold Glove Awards.

But enough with that, let's delve into their offense. I took the 2010 OPS+ of every player on these four lists. Then, I found the average OPS+ of each list. Similar to how UZR isn't an ultimate determination of defensive prowess, OPS+ is not an ultimate determination of offensive skill. But it does encompass a lot: namely, a hitter's power, and their ability to get on base.

Here are the results:

AL UZR Team's Average OPS+: 101.1
AL GG Team's Average OPS+: 119

NL UZR Team's Average OPS+: 104.1
NL GG Team's Average OPS+: 125.7

So there you have it...as you can see from the data, there clearly appears to be a much higher OPS+ for Gold Glove winners than there is for actual UZR leaders (who are perceived by many to be the league's best defenders).

There are clearly some flaws to this "quick study".

The first is that it's a small sample size. I only looked at one season's worth of data, so that's 14 players in each league. The second is that I weighed each players' OPS+ equally, even though they have not had an equal distribution of ABs or PAs. The third flaw is that neither UZR nor OPS+ are perfect indicators of a hitters' respective defensive and offensive skills.

Nevertheless, UZR and OPS+ do encompass a lot. And the data seems to be very distinct, that Gold Glove winners are better offensively than the league's "true best defenders." I bet if I were to look at data from a sample of several years, I would get the same results.

So there you have it. Offensive numbers have an effect on whether or not a player wins the Gold Glove Award...or at least, that seems to be the case.

Note: I took Peter Bourjos out of the equation (because he hasn't even had 200 PAs), which would push Ichiro onto the AL UZR team. That makes it so that three of the 14 UZR leaders won Gold Gloves. That also bumps up the AL UZR Team Average OPS+ from a 101.1 to a 107.7...that makes the difference between AL UZR Team Avg. OPS+ and AL GG Team Avg. OPS+ an 11.3 rather than a 17.9...still a significant difference, though.

National League Gold Glove Winners Announced: Andres Torres...Denied.

The National League Gold Glove winners were announced earlier today:

C - Yadier Molina
1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Brandon Phillips
3B - Scott Rolen
SS - Troy Tulowitzki
OF - Michael Bourn
OF - Shane Victorino
OF - Carlos Gonzalez
P - Bronson Arroyo

Notice something? Andres Torres is missing...I'm not personally surprised, but he was clearly snubbed. Let's look at the UZR of the three outfielders who won Gold Gloves:

Michael Bourn: 17.6
Shane Victorino: 2.6
Carlos Gonzalez: -2.7

Let's compare that to Andres Torres: 21.2 (best among qualified NL OF). Yes, he got snubbed. As did Alexei Ramirez (whose UZR of 10.8 is vastly superior to Derek Jeter's mark of -4.7). The most pathetic part, in my opinion, is the fact that managers and coaches vote for the Gold Glove awards. One would hope that they would be the most knowledgeable. Are errors, putouts, and assists all these people care about it? Range is probably the most critical, as it determines whether the fielder even gets to the ball in the first place. It's simply too critical to leave out of the equation.

Yes, UZR is not the be-all and end-all of fielding metrics. But seriously? Andres Torres, according to UZR, was 21.2 runs above average for his team, whereas Carlos Gonzalez was 2.6 runs below average, and Shane Victorino was only 2.6 runs above average. It's just too much of a difference to ignore.