Do Offensive Numbers have an Effect on Gold Glove Award Voting?

Note: for information on UZR, refer to this. For information on OPS+, refer to this. 

Another year of terrible choices for the Gold Glove Awards has infuriated me to the point that I want to look into whether or not offense really does sway the voting. This isn't very relevant to the Giants, necessarily, although it might explain why Carlos Gonzalez won a Gold Glove (instead of, potentially, Andres Torres).

So here's what I did. I took the top Ultimate Zone Ratings at each position in each respective league. That's seven players in each league, as there is no UZR for catchers and pitchers. I acknowledge the fact that UZR is not at all an ultimate indicator of defensive skills, but it does encompass many important factors - errors, range, arm. So I'm going to use it for this quick study.

Here's the list of players...

AL UZR Team (with their UZRs)
Daric Barton: 12.1
Mark Ellis: 9.9
Kevin Kouzmanoff: 16.1
Alexei Ramirez: 10.8
Brett Gardner: 22.3
Carl Crawford: 18.5
Peter Bourjos: 16.0

NL UZR Team (with their UZRs)
Ike Davis: 10.1
Chase Utley: 10.3
Chase Headley: 16.5
Brendan Ryan: 11.5
Jay Bruce: 20.2
Michael Bourn: 17.6
Andres Torres: 21.2

Now here are the Gold Glove award-winners:

AL GG Team (with their UZRs)
Mark Teixeira: -2.9
Robinson Cano: -0.6
Evan Longoria: 11.1
Derek Jeter: -4.7
Carl Crawford: 18.5
Franklin Gutierrez: 7.3
Ichiro Suzuki: 15.6

NL GG Team (with their UZRs)
Albert Pujols: 1.5
Brandon Phillips: 9.7
Scott Rolen: 10.6
Troy Tulowitzki: 7.1
Carlos Gonzalez: -2.7
Michael Bourn: 17.6
Shane Victorino: 2.6

So, from the results, it looks that generally, UZR leaders were snubbed of Gold Glove awards. Only two of the 14 UZR leaders in this 2010 sample were given Gold Glove Awards.

But enough with that, let's delve into their offense. I took the 2010 OPS+ of every player on these four lists. Then, I found the average OPS+ of each list. Similar to how UZR isn't an ultimate determination of defensive prowess, OPS+ is not an ultimate determination of offensive skill. But it does encompass a lot: namely, a hitter's power, and their ability to get on base.

Here are the results:

AL UZR Team's Average OPS+: 101.1
AL GG Team's Average OPS+: 119

NL UZR Team's Average OPS+: 104.1
NL GG Team's Average OPS+: 125.7

So there you have it...as you can see from the data, there clearly appears to be a much higher OPS+ for Gold Glove winners than there is for actual UZR leaders (who are perceived by many to be the league's best defenders).

There are clearly some flaws to this "quick study".

The first is that it's a small sample size. I only looked at one season's worth of data, so that's 14 players in each league. The second is that I weighed each players' OPS+ equally, even though they have not had an equal distribution of ABs or PAs. The third flaw is that neither UZR nor OPS+ are perfect indicators of a hitters' respective defensive and offensive skills.

Nevertheless, UZR and OPS+ do encompass a lot. And the data seems to be very distinct, that Gold Glove winners are better offensively than the league's "true best defenders." I bet if I were to look at data from a sample of several years, I would get the same results.

So there you have it. Offensive numbers have an effect on whether or not a player wins the Gold Glove Award...or at least, that seems to be the case.

Note: I took Peter Bourjos out of the equation (because he hasn't even had 200 PAs), which would push Ichiro onto the AL UZR team. That makes it so that three of the 14 UZR leaders won Gold Gloves. That also bumps up the AL UZR Team Average OPS+ from a 101.1 to a 107.7...that makes the difference between AL UZR Team Avg. OPS+ and AL GG Team Avg. OPS+ an 11.3 rather than a 17.9...still a significant difference, though.

The Giants: DH Options

There was a very good article on Fangraphs (by Dave Cameron) about the Giants DH options.

Basically, the Giants will have to face a minimum of two leftys in their three games in Texas. They'll face CJ Wilson in Game Three, and Cliff Lee in Game Five, and they might (although I doubt it) face the lefty Derek Holland in Game Four. That means, ideally, their DH would be able to hit left-handed pitching.

Dave Cameron proposes four options in his article:

1. DH Pablo Sandoval. This could work...Sandoval has a good power bat, and the Giants would certainly benefit from having a different guy manning third base. The clear problem here, however, is that he hasn't hit well against left-handed pitchers this year. He's batted just .227 with one home run from the right side in 2010.

2. DH Pat Burrell. Put Aaron Rowand in the outfield. This is not an option that I am very enthusiastic about. Pat Burrell has never had success in his career as a DH (you might remember that he was designated for assignment earlier this year, after doing a terrible job as the Tampa Bay Rays DH). As Dave Cameron points out, he’s a career .209/.306/.348 hitter when not playing the field." I don't think it would be fair to put Burrell in a position that he's uncomfortable with, especially if it's being done merely so the Giants can fit Rowand's bat into the lineup. Even if the Giants did DH Pat Burrell, I would prefer that they use Nate Schierholtz in the outfield. They'd have better defense, speed, and Schierholtz actually has hit leftys well in his career (.354/.390/.500). <--- that's no mistake. He's seriously been that good against LHP, although it is bloated quite a bit by luck (.414 BABIP vs. LHP in his career).

3. DH Aubrey Huff. Put Travis Ishikawa at first base. This is an attractive option from a defensive standpoint...not that Huff is a bad defender. Ishikawa is top-notch though. The problem here is quite obvious, and it's the fact that Travis Ishikawa is a left-handed hitter. He has not had much success against LHP in his career,  with a .230/.288/.246 slash line. In these one-run games, though, defense is quite important. His glove certainly outweighs his lack of offensive ability.

4. DH Jose Guillen. I don't think there's any reason this should be done whatsoever. I don't care that Jose Guillen is a right-handed hitter. He's old, slow, hasn't played in weeks, and his bat isn't even good -- he strikes out a lot, rarely walks, and doesn't hit with much power. So no. This is not an option. I doubt he'll even make the World Series roster.

So what's the best option? In Game Four, if Tommy Hunter pitches, DH Aubrey Huff and put Travis Ishikawa at first base. The Giants will benefit both defensively and offensively, as Travis Ishikawa is a good defender and can hit right-handed pitching well. In Game Three, I'm fine with trying Pat Burrell. I suppose putting Aaron Rowand in the outfield might work, as he is a right-handed hitter, and would benefit from the fact that the Rangers stadium is a hitters park. If DHing Burrell doesn't work, then the Sandoval option can be attempted for Game Five. When in doubt though, go with what will help the team defensively. Ask Brooks Conrad. Ask Chase Utley. Ask anyone that's played in the postseason so far. Defense has made a huge impact in these tight games, and I would hate to see the Giants lose because Aubrey Huff bobbles a ball, Pat Burrell can't get to a ball in time, or Pablo Sandoval overthrows first base.

The options aren't great. I think they just need to go with what's working. If someone's hot in Games One and Two, don't stop playing them...