Over the last few years, baseball has seen a dramatic shift in the importance of home-grown talent. While wealthy powerhouses such as the Yankees have the spending power to be annually competitive, the strength of other teams seems to fluctuate based on the success of their farm systems. Consequently, many executives have placed a greater emphasis on rewarding promising young players with long-term extensions, hoping to save millions down the road. In just the past month, both Troy Tulowitzki and Jay Bruce have scored mega-deals keeping them in their respective uniforms for the foreseeable future. Lengthy contracts such as these are certainly risky, but often justified, as younger players are often willing to sacrifice salary for financial security.
With a breathtaking rookie campaign, Buster Posey has solidified his status as a cornerstone player the Giants will look to build around for the next decade or so. Unless a catastrophe occurs, he will surely be offered a long-term extension within the next few years. Due to a controversial Triple A stint in 2010, Posey will not become a free agent until after the 2016 season. However, like Tim Lincecum, he will qualify as a "Super Two" player, giving him an extra year of arbitration eligibility. For more detailed information on Buster's service time, I recommend reading this excellent article. The logical time for a Posey extension is 2012 because it is the first year he will be eligible for the arbitration process. Furthermore, the departures of Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand will free up millions of dollars. With a rejuvenated payroll, money should not be a major obstacle compared to the length of the contract itself.
As a Giants fan, is tempting to suggest that Brian Sabean should lock up Posey for the rest of his career. However, doing so would create a significant risk for the entire organization. Posey is a gifted player, but his success is far from guaranteed, due to baseball's volatility. Catchers are especially vulnerable to the effects of the long, strenuous season, as the strain put on their legs makes significant injury more plausible. A lengthy contract to a catcher is considered risky, no matter what the price is.
Since Posey has inevitably been compared to Joe Mauer, it seems only logical to analyze Mauer's durability. Following his MVP campaign, Mauer signed a highly touted eight-year $184MM extension that takes him through his age 35 season. While he is an exceptionally talented player, pundits assert that this contract will eventually spell disaster for the Twins. Over the past five years, Mauer has averaged 114 games per season at catcher due to various injuries. He's also spent a significant chunk of time at DH, a luxury Posey won't have. Despite individual player differences, Mauer's lack of constancy on the field does not bode well for any team seeking to extend a young catcher for a long period of time.
Another warning can be found in the form of rookie Cleveland Indians catcher Carlos Santana. The young backstop displayed exceptional patience and power at the plate during his time in 2010. Unfortunately, his promising season was brought to an abrupt end when he was injured in a head-on collision at the plate. While Santana is expected to return for the 2011 season, it is impossible to predict how he will respond to the physical and mental effects of this alarming experience. This type of incident is always a risk with Posey, and if it was to occur in the upcoming years, it would severely cripple the Giants' hopes of contention.
While durability is difficult to predict, it is obvious that catchers are more injury-prone than other position players, especially as they age. They play in fewer games and can often fall into prolonged slumps due to fatigue. For this reason, the Giants must be cautious when planning out an extension in the coming years. If the success continues, Brian Sabean will feel pressured to reward his young catcher with an immense contract. At present time, it is too early to predict a reasonable amount of money and years for a player of Posey's talent. It is, however, important to remember that superstar catchers face unique limitations that are often easy to forget.
