Showing posts with label Tim Lincecum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tim Lincecum. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

The 2010 San Francisco Giants and their Homegrown Pitching Staff

Every so often, I'll wander toward the Baseball-Reference page for the 2010 San Francisco Giants. It's nice to take it all in. We're world champions, and it's been quite a long wait.

Today, though, I noticed something quite interesting. Specifically, this:


How common is that? To have six pitchers, acquired via the amateur draft, each post 1.5+ rWAR? Five posted 2+ rWAR. And heck, four even posted 3+ rWAR?

As it turns out, it is really unique.

I ran a play index query and found that since 1965, when the first amateur draft was held, only 70 teams have had four or more pitchers post 3+ rWAR in a given season. I then poured through all 70 of those teams...

How many of them had four or more pitchers, acquired via the draft, post 3+ rWAR?

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Tim Hudson Dominates, Giants Lose

  • Tim Lincecum walked the first two batters of the game. Not a clean outing from him overall -- 6.1 IP, 6 K, 6 BB, 5 R...FIP at 3.96; the one positive: 73.3% GB rate, a skill that complements high BB/9.
  • On the other side of the mound, Tim Hudson was pretty dominant. 8.2 IP, 0 BB, 2.44 FIP. Yep, the Giants did not draw a single walk.
  • Pat Burrell and Cody Ross both looked pretty good, going 5 for 8 with a couple of doubles. The rest of the Giants' offense went 4 for 26, without any extra-base hits.
  • Tim Hudson only needed 13 pitches to get through the fifth and sixth innings.

Yeah, that's pretty much it. It's easy to say the San Francisco Giants have a capable offense when they're hitting home runs; but when they're not, their massive weakness shows -- on-base ability. They live and die with the long-ball, and unless it stops, they'll never have a "consistent" offense.

The Giants, coming into today's game, ranked seventh best in the majors in isolated power (ISO). However, they ranked eighth worst in BB% and OBP. See the problem? Here's where a guy like Brandon Belt becomes useful.



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Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Notes: Tim Lincecum, Rotations, Ballparks, Andres Torres

Friday, January 21, 2011

Notes: Eric Surkamp Interview, Barry Bonds, Andres Torres

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Notes: Reporters, Tim Lincecum, Orlando Hudson

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Notes: Wiffle Ball, Injuries, Promotional Schedule


Sunday, January 2, 2011

Notes

These are by no means worthy of individual posts, so here goes...

  • Kirk Rueter, who's on the Hall of Fame ballot, compiled 818 strikeouts in his 13-year career. Tim Lincecum has already surpassed that total. It's kind of amazing. 
  • Ross of Ross and the Heckler Speak is currently working on developing a SABR-based Hall of Fame. His first post is already up. 
  • To give insight into the Los Angeles Dodgers, who I believe will be the Giants' toughest intra-divisional competition in 2011, I've asked Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness, a fantastic Dodgers blog, ten questions about the Dodgers. I'll probably post the Ten Questions Q&A later this week, so you can look forward to that.
  • Kenley Jansen's ERA+ scares me...
Year Age Tm ERA G IP SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 22 LAD 0.67 25 27.0 41 582 1.000 4.0 0.0 5.0 13.7 2.73

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Notes

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Looking Back at the 2010 Giants Projections

To say that 2010 was a season full of surprises would be an understatement: Pablo Sandoval and Tim Lincecum had disappointing sesasons; Mark DeRosa was injured after playing in only 26 games; Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff played far beyond expectations, putting up all-star caliber numbers; and Buster Posey had no trouble whatsoever in adjusting to the majors, becoming an elite catcher from day one (his debut). Lastly, the Giants picked up some phenomenal players on the way, namely Cody Ross, Javier Lopez, and Pat Burrell. Now that we've looked at (and made) projections for the 2011 season, I thought it'd be fun to take a look back at how certain Giants were expected to perform in 2010 (and compare it to their actual performance). This will give context to how surprising 2010 really was. For the purposes of this, I'll use ZiPS projections, one of the most well-respected projection systems out there. If you want to take a look at the 2010 ZiPS projections, they are available here.

Pablo Sandoval
Projected - .320/.368/.516; OPS+ 130
Actual - .268/.323/.409; OPS+ 95

Aubrey Huff
Projected - .270/.330/.448; OPS+ 102
Actual - .290/.385/.506; OPS+ 138

Aaron Rowand
Projected - .273/.335/.431; OPS+ 100
Actual - .230/.281/.378; OPS+ 75

Buster Posey
Projected - .263/.343/.398; OPS+ 95
Actual - .305/.357/.505; OPS+ 129

Freddy Sanchez
Projected - .296/.331/.414; OPS+ 95
Actual - .292/.342/.397; OPS+ 98

Edgar Renteria
Projected - .280/.336/.388; OPS+ 90
Actual - .276/.332/.374; OPS+ 90

Juan Uribe
Projected - .269/.311/.442; OPS+ 95
Actual - .248/.310/.440; OPS+ 99

Andres Torres

Projected - .254/.315/.397; OPS+ 86
Actual - .268/.343/.479; OPS+ 119

As can be seen from these comparisons, which look at only eight of the Giants, there were many surprises. Torres, Huff, and Posey far exceeded expectations; on the other hand, Rowand and Sandoval far underperformed. All in all, the Giants ended up playing much better than expected, taking home a World Series trophy with an offense that, before the season began, was the subject of ample criticism.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Notes, notes, notes

  • The Giants took home five GIBBYs (Greatness in Baseball Yearly Awards). They are voted by fans, media, front-office personnel, and former major-leaguers...
Tim Lincecum - Postseason MVP
Brian Wilson - Closer of the Year
Buster Posey - Rookie of the Year
Bruce Bochy - Manager of the Year
Brian Sabean - Executive of the Year

Friday, December 17, 2010

Locking Up Buster Posey

Over the last few years, baseball has seen a dramatic shift in the importance of home-grown talent. While wealthy powerhouses such as the Yankees have the spending power to be annually competitive, the strength of other teams seems to fluctuate based on the success of their farm systems. Consequently, many executives have placed a greater emphasis on rewarding promising young players with long-term extensions, hoping to save millions down the road. In just the past month, both Troy Tulowitzki and Jay Bruce have scored mega-deals keeping them in their respective uniforms for the foreseeable future. Lengthy contracts such as these are certainly risky, but often justified, as younger players are often willing to sacrifice salary for financial security.

With a breathtaking rookie campaign, Buster Posey has solidified his status as a cornerstone player the Giants will look to build around for the next decade or so. Unless a catastrophe occurs, he will surely be offered a long-term extension within the next few years. Due to a controversial Triple A stint in 2010, Posey will not become a free agent until after the 2016 season. However, like Tim Lincecum, he will qualify as a "Super Two" player, giving him an extra year of arbitration eligibility. For more detailed information on Buster's service time, I recommend reading this excellent article. The logical time for a Posey extension is 2012 because it is the first year he will be eligible for the arbitration process. Furthermore, the departures of Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand will free up millions of dollars. With a rejuvenated payroll, money should not be a major obstacle compared to the length of the contract itself.

As a Giants fan, is tempting to suggest that Brian Sabean should lock up Posey for the rest of his career. However, doing so would create a significant risk for the entire organization. Posey is a gifted player, but his success is far from guaranteed, due to baseball's volatility. Catchers are especially vulnerable to the effects of the long, strenuous season, as the strain put on their legs makes significant injury more plausible. A lengthy contract to a catcher is considered risky, no matter what the price is.

Since Posey has inevitably been compared to Joe Mauer, it seems only logical to analyze Mauer's durability. Following his MVP campaign, Mauer signed a highly touted eight-year $184MM extension that takes him through his age 35 season. While he is an exceptionally talented player, pundits assert that this contract will eventually spell disaster for the Twins. Over the past five years, Mauer has averaged 114 games per season at catcher due to various injuries. He's also spent a significant chunk of time at DH, a luxury Posey won't have. Despite individual player differences, Mauer's lack of constancy on the field does not bode well for any team seeking to extend a young catcher for a long period of time.

Another warning can be found in the form of rookie Cleveland Indians catcher Carlos Santana. The young backstop displayed exceptional patience and power at the plate during his time in 2010. Unfortunately, his promising season was brought to an abrupt end when he was injured in a head-on collision at the plate. While Santana is expected to return for the 2011 season, it is impossible to predict how he will respond to the physical and mental effects of this alarming experience. This type of incident is always a risk with Posey, and if it was to occur in the upcoming years, it would severely cripple the Giants' hopes of contention.

While durability is difficult to predict, it is obvious that catchers are more injury-prone than other position players, especially as they age. They play in fewer games and can often fall into prolonged slumps due to fatigue. For this reason, the Giants must be cautious when planning out an extension in the coming years. If the success continues, Brian Sabean will feel pressured to reward his young catcher with an immense contract. At present time, it is too early to predict a reasonable amount of money and years for a player of Posey's talent. It is, however, important to remember that superstar catchers face unique limitations that are often easy to forget.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Random Musings...

I just have a couple of random things I feel that I need to say, which are not worthy of individual posts....

First off, great article on Bay City Ball about Velez. Seriously. It says everything there is to say about Velez. By the way, Bay City Ball is a great Giants blog to read if you're more statistically-inclined.

Also, what happened to FireSabean? FireSabean wasn't necessarily a popular guy -- when the Giants were enjoying much success, day after day I would hear Giants analysts disparaging him -- but I always respected him. Not because I felt he was entirely correct -- he was a bit extreme (for example, when the Giants won an extra-inning game, I recall him saying something like "The Giants should have been able to win that game in nine innings. This is an outrage. A real GM would build a team that can win in nine innings." But because he was steadfast in his beliefs. He dealt with a lot of criticism, yet continued to believe that Brian Sabean was a bad GM. I'm disappointed he's gone -- I feel he just gave up on his beliefs. History can't erase the fact that Sabean signed Aaron Rowand and Barry Zito to those atrocious contracts; and I feel too much credit was given to Sabes for the World Series title. Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Brian Wilson, etc. were there because of the Giants' scouting department, not Sabes. I don't care if Sabean has a scouting background -- he's given more credit than he deserves, and that's all that I'll say on the matter.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

More Pablo Sandoval...

In a recent article, Mychael Urban said the following:
Pablo Sandoval simply can’t be counted on at this point, so it’s not absurd to see the Giants going with a left-side tag team of Uribe and Tejada, with a little Mark DeRosa and Manny Burriss on the side.
Seriously? I know Pablo Sandoval had a disappointing season, but I find the notion to be ridiculous: that Miguel Tejada, Mark DeRosa, or Emmanuel Burriss are better options than Sandoval playing alongside Juan Uribe. Let's do a little comparison...for the sake of making this unbiased, I will use anonymity...I refuse to even include Burriss in this, because it should be obvious that Sandoval is a better option than him. Burriss has played mediocre defense in his career at short, and has a career slash line of .264/.329/.302; yes, I'm not making this up. Burriss has a career SLG of .302...oh yeah, and he's injury-prone. Let's move on here...

Listed are the following players' 2010 slash lines along with their current ages...

Player A: .194/.279/.258, injured for most of 2010, current age: 35
Player B: .268/.323/.409, current age: 24
Player C: .269/.312/.381, current age: 36

Hmm...so it appears that player B put up similar numbers to player C in 2010, with one exception. Player C is 12 years older. It should be pretty obvious who these players are, but in case you are unaware, A is DeRosa, B is Sandoval, and C is Tejada.

DeRosa is an injury risk, and was terrible when he played in 2010. Even assuming a full recovery, his upside is minimal -- he'll probably max out at 15 home runs, and that's at best. Meanwhile, his third base defense is mediocre, with a career UZR/150 of -5.7, as is his shortstop defense (career UZR/150 of -1.5). So, yes, it's absurd to think that DeRosa is a better option than Sandoval. Oh yeah, and to reiterate, he's 35 years old.

Now Tejada has only played third base in one season, 2010, and he produced -6.9 UZR. Just awful. In all fairness, though, small sample size. At shortstop, however, he has played thousands of games, and his career UZR/150 of -3.4 is mediocre. His offense, meanwhile, was slightly worse than Sandoval's, due to a nauseating 4.4% walk rate, and slightly less power than Sandoval. Oh yeah, and he's 36. Plus, he'd cost extra money because he's a free agent, whereas the Giants already have Sandoval and DeRosa for 2011.

Keep in mind, also, that Sandoval is due for a resurgence. I recommend that you look into this for further reading.

If Sandoval gains another 20 pounds this offseason, and comes back looking like Mo Vaughn in 2003, then yes, send him to the minors. But at this point, taking into account that he's due for at least a slight resurgence, that he has less of an injury history than DeRosa/Burriss, that he's younger than DeRosa/Tejada, and that he's never played atrocious defense, at least by UZR standards (career UZR/150 of -0.5 at third base), he's a better option to play alongside Uribe than DeRosa/Burriss/Tejada.

People are too quick to lose faith in players. Remember in August, when people thought Tim Lincecum's career was quickly coming to an end? Exercise patience, people. Sandoval's 2010 production was that of an average third baseman. He needs to lose weight, but that doesn't mean he's not worthy of the starting job at third.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Brandon Belt

In case you haven't heard of Brandon Belt, it's about time. He's an up-and-coming star in the Giants farm system that could very well be an integral part of the San Francisco Giants in 2011. As of now, he's playing in the Arizona Fall League, and enjoying success, as he did all season long...
An AFL title would just be the cherry on the top of what was an extraordinary debut season by any measurement. The 2009 fifth-round pick led the Minor Leagues with a 1.075 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage). He finished second in batting average (.352) and on-base percentage (.455) while ending up fourth in RBIs (112) and seventh in slugging percentage (.620). He did it while playing across three levels, starting with Class A Advanced San Jose and finishing in Triple-A Fresno.
Belt exhibits an impressive combination of power, contact, plate discipline, and a little bit of speed: in three levels of the minor leagues this year, he put up a .352/.455/.620 slash line, hit 23 home runs, walked 93 times in 595 plate appearances, and despite the fact that he's primarily a first baseman, he stole 23 bases.

It's easy to get caught up in the Brandon Belt hype, because the numbers he's produced consistently all season long are quite amazing. He also seems to be a very likable player...for example, here's what MLB.com writer Jonathan Mayo had to say about him:
Still, there's a humility in how Belt speaks about what's happened in 2010. He got the chance to play in the AFL Rising Stars Game -- the best of the best -- and showed some serious plate discipline (not to mention the respect of opposing pitchers) by drawing three walks. While Belt clearly feels he belongs in this rarified air, he does so without any sense of entitlement.
After thoroughly examining his 2010 season, I am going to make a bold claim. I think Brandon Belt will be the  2011 Rookie of the Year. I've even made a Facebook fan page...Granted, he'll have to receive adequate playing time -- even Posey cut it close in the Rookie of the Year by missing the first couple months of the season (it certainly gave competitor Jason Heyward the upper hand). But Belt appears to possess a unique skill-set that could easily see him as a starting first baseman in 2011. 

I'll admit, I've gotten a little too caught up in the hype. But after seeing what Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey, and Madison Bumgarner have been able to do in the majors thus far, I believe Belt can emulate their success.


More about Brandon Belt to come...

Rockies Interested in Justin Upton

According to MLBTradeRumors, the Rockies have expressed interest in Justin Upton. Although Arizona's asking price is said to be very high, the Rockies lineup could be extremely potent with the acquisition of Upton.

Their heart of the lineup could potentially consist of Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Upton, and Carlos Gonzalez. Three young superstars who amassed a combined 78 home runs and 15.5 wins above replacement in 2010 (keep in mind they did incur injuries, and possibly -- especially with Upton -- have yet to reach their full potential). The Rockies would have a powerful lineup even with a weak supporting cast.

They would also be reckless on the basepaths. Tulo, Upton, CarGo, and Dexter Fowler stole a combined 68 bases in 2010, and could possibly approach a combined 100 steals in 2011 if they can remain healthy and receive regular playing time.

Considering the trouble some Giants pitchers have with holding baserunners (Tim Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez to be more specific), the mere prospect of the Rockies acquiring Justin Upton is scary. Keep in mind he's still only 23 years old.

Luckily, the Rockies would have to offer up a pretty nice package of players in order to acquire Upton, and my intuition tells me that the Rockies will not actually trade for him.

There's still many questions to be raised about the Rockies' entire pitching staff. Their bullpen is not very stable, and beyond Ubaldo Jimenez, their rotation is not very impressive. I don't see how Upton would be a priority, especially considering they already have two of the best young superstars in the game in Tulo and CarGo.

Nevertheless, the notion that Upton could possibly be in a Rockies uni' in 2011 is scary.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

2010 NL Cy Young Award

Roy Halladay has won the 2010 NL Cy Young Award...no surprise here.

Here's the full voting:

1st2nd3rd4th5thPoints
Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies32224
Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals2831122
Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies4198190
Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves313439
Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins55934
Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros/Philadelphia Phillies13514
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants157
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres114
Mat Latos, San Diego Padres124
Brett Myers, Houston Astros12
Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants22
Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds11
Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants11

Nice to see three Giants get votes, even though they didn't receive many. I suspect they would've pulled more votes had the voting been conducted after the postseason.

Saturday, November 6, 2010

President Barack Obama Congratulates the Giants

In case you didn't see it, here's the video.

I must say, it was nice to see the president of the United States acknowledge the significance of Madison Bumgarner's ability to stay calm, cool, and collected on the big stage. He also gave a nod to Edgar Renteria, Tim Lincecum, and just the rotation in general.

He was invited by the Giants to throw out the first pitch at Opening Day for the defending world champions, and seemed enthusiastic.
Obama: "I can tell you right now, I'm gonna put in a request and see if we can get out to the west coast."


Thursday, November 4, 2010

Giants Decline Renteria's Option

The Giants officially declined Edgar Renteria's $10.5 million option today. They'll pay him a $500K buyout.

This comes as no surprise...yes,  he won the World Series MVP. But he's plagued with injuries, his legs are not what they used to be (he did steal 34 bases back in 2003), he only managed to hit .259 for the Giants with 8 home runs over 2009 and 2010, and he hasn't been anything special.

He had a few clutch moments with the Giants that were critical. The few that stick out in my mind:
He's left his mark in San Francisco Giants franchise history. I'm sure his time as a Giants shortstop is over, though. There is no better time to retire than this year, after winning the World Series MVP.

In other news...Pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in 100 days.

Lastly...Many Giants are nominated for TYIB (This Year in Baseball) Awards.
  • Buster Posey is nominated for the TYIB Rookie of the Year Award.
  • Brian Wilson is nominated for the TYIB Closer of the Year Award.
  • Pat Burrell is nominated for the TYIB X-Factor Player of the Year Award. 
  • Andres Torres is not nominated for the TYIB Breakout Player of the Year Award. What gives?
  • Brian Sabean is nominated for the TYIB Executive of the Year Award. 
  • Bruce Bochy is nominated for the TYIB Manager of the Year Award. 
  • Lastly, Cody Ross, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Brian Wilson are all nominees for the TYIB Postseason MVP Award. 
Also...Five Giants plays are nominated for the TYIB Postseason Moment of the Year:
  • Lincecum's 14-K NLDS Game One
  • Posey's play at the plate in NLCS Game Four
  • Renteria's three-run homer against the Rangers in WS Game Five
  • Wilson's strikeout of Ryan Howard to send the Giants to the WS 
  • And..Juan Uribe's go-ahead shot in Game Six of the NLCS
You can vote for the TYIB Awards here.

Sunday, October 31, 2010

WS Game Four Recap

Let me start by saying I was wrong. Travis Ishikawa and Nate Schierholtz didn't have great games. They were a combined 0 for 7. For what it's worth, though, Schierholtz was nabbed of an RBI single by a great Josh Hamilton catch. And, surely, they played a role in Madison Bumgarner's eight-inning three-hit gem. They were solid on defense. Lastly, maybe playing Ishikawa allowed Aubrey Huff to focus on his offense and hit that two-run homer. At the very least, it allowed the Giants to have Huff's bat without the defensive inconsistency he brings (he's a solid defender usually, but is prone to errors).

I was wrong, though. Whatever...Giants won!

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Now, on to the good stuff...Madison K Bumgarner: youngest pitcher ever to win a postseason game for the Giants; youngest pitcher ever to start a World Series game for the Giants; fifth youngest pitcher ever to start a World Series game; Fourth youngest pitcher ever to win a World Series game.

That was the stuff of legends. Eight innings, three hits, two walks, six strikeouts. One Ranger reached second base, and that was only due to an error by Juan Uribe.

Bumgarner achieved a game score of 80. That's the highest game score achieved by a Giant in a World Series since Jack Sanford achieved an 84 in Game Two of the 1962 World Series. That's also the highest game score achieved by a left-handed starter for the Giants in a World Series since Carl Hubbell in Game Four of the 1933 World Series.

He's the youngest left-handed pitcher in history to toss eight or more shutout innings in a World Series start.

From ESPN:
"The Giants are the 5th team in the last 35 years to throw a shutout while allowing only 3 or fewer singles (and no extra-base hits) in a World Series game. Each of the 5 teams are NL teams, and they all went on to win the World Series."
"Buster Posey becomes the 7th catcher in World Series history to hit a home run while catching a shutout."
"The Giants now have 4 shutouts this postseason. That ties the 1998 Yankees and 1905 New York Giants for the most in a single postseason in major-league history."
Best rookie battery in history. Mr. Bumgarner and Mr. Posey. The Bumgarner Battery. The Posey Posse. Hmm...my logo is ingenious. Props to the designer, Zachary Chiang.

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How great is it that the three Giants to drive in runs in this game (Aubrey Huff, Buster Posey, Andres Torres) were the three best offensive players this year for the Giants? Huff had a two-run blast off of Tommy Hunter. Posey had a solo shot to dead center. Andres Torres knocked in a run with an RBI double. It was frustrating when these guys, who have carried this team all year, were struggling at various times during the postseason. They're locked in now.

Why couldn't Edgar Renteria do this during the regular season (besides, of course, the first week)? Three singles and a run scored. I certainly didn't see this one coming.

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I was right about one thing. Madison Bumgarner is much, much, much better than Tommy Hunter. Hunter lasted four innings, allowing two earned runs. He threw a total of 83 pitches though. Bumgarner went twice as many innings, throwing 106 pitches.

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All the Giants need to do is avoid a three-game losing streak. That's it. And then they're World Champions. They have the upper hand in a lot of ways. They have home-field advantage for two of the next three games. Their bullpen is more rested (Rangers used five pitchers in Game Four). And they have the psychological advantage for tomorrow -- their starter beat the Rangers' starter (Tim Lincecum beat Cliff Lee) in Game One.

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October is over, and with it goes Rosstober. Cody Ross' hit streak came to a halt in Game Four. It's disappointing, but he'll definitely put together several more streaks in 2011. So now comes the question? What will next month be -- Posember, Huffember, Torresember, Lincenember? We'll just have to wait and see...

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Pat Burrell's playing tomorrow. I'm not personally expecting much, but I'm hoping for a lot. One day of rest can do wonders.