Notes: Brian Wilson on Lopez Tonight, Aaron Rowand

• The Phillies/Aaron Rowand trade rumors are starting up again.
• Brian Wilson will be making an appearance on Lopez Tonight. I'll try to post a video of it. He's going to be debuting a short film in which he starred (and co-wrote). 
• Oh, and he might be dying his beard new color to mark the occasion...(Edit: he's apparently going to be dressed as a sea captain.)
• Grant at McCovey Chronicles provides his attempt at building the 2011 batting order. I like Pablo Sandoval in the #8 spot a lot, actually -- at least for the time being. I'd love to see him work his way up the lineup, much like Cody Ross did. 
• SBNation took a humorous look at the best baseball names of all time. 
• 17 days till pitchers and catchers report!
• If you ever have an interesting video, article, blog post, photo, etc. that you think should be included in a Notes post, don't hesitate to email me (blog@splashingpumpkins.com) or tweet to me (@splashinpumpkin). 

Notes: Vernon Wells, Buster Posey, Manny Ramirez

• If you don't think the Vernon Wells trade was a terrible move by the Angels, read this. And this. And this. 
• On a similar note, El Lefty Malo has a nice realistic take on the impact this has on the Giants' bad contracts (Aaron Rowand, Barry Zito). 
• Bay City Ball looks at Giants first-round position players by WAR. Just another reminder of how special Buster Posey is. 
• If you checked out the 2011 ZiPS projections, you probably already know this, but Brandon Belt is among the prospects that ZiPS projects to do well in the majors. 
• Tune in tonight to the I-70 Baseball Radio Show for an exciting announcement regarding a new website. 
• The San Francisco Giants are #1 on Reddit, among all baseball teams. 
• Edgar Renteria will be making more money next year than Manny Ramirez. That's ridiculous. 
• 20 days till pitchers and catchers report!

Notes: Albert Pujols, Power Rankings, Prospects

• As of 1/17/2010, the Giants are projected by the Hardball Times to lead the majors with 96 wins.
• According to a tweet from Buster Olney, the Giants could be a possibility to sign Albert Pujols in 2011. Aaron Rowand and Barry Zito will still be on the books next year, and the Giants will have two first basemen in Brandon Belt (assuming he lives up to the hype) and Aubrey Huff (although he'll move to OF if Belt takes over first). I just don't really see Pujols in a Giants uni'...
• Splashing Pumpkins participated with other blogs in the MLBBlogBuzz in voting on Power Rankings. Check out the final power rankings for 2011. The Giants ranked 5th. 
• If you're into sabermetrics and enjoyed the FIP video I posted earlier, Bradley Woodrum made another installment -- about LOB%. 
• Dr. B of When the Giants Come to Town has released his 2011 Top 50 Giants Prospects list. 
• Happy 26th Birthday Emmanuel Burriss!

Notes: Willie McCovey, Pablo Sandoval, Thomas Neal

• First of all, happy 73rd birthday to Willie McCovey, a true Giants great!
• According to Henry Schulman, Pablo Sandoval's conditioning is going well:

"Aurilia lives in Phoenix and told me today he saw Pablo at a shopping mall just before Christmas. Sandoval told him he had lost 17 pounds."

• Speaking of preseason "best shape of their lives" stories, I think this article is relevant. You might recall Aaron Rowand showing up to Spring Training in the best shape of his life, but his 2010 numbers certainly did not reflect an improvement. 
• Thomas Neal, a prospect that I looked at recently, is going to appear on the Hot Stove show on CSN tomorrow night with Mychael Urban.
• I'm excited to say that Urban has agreed to participate in the Ten Questions Q&A series, so you can look forward to that. 
• Ross of Ross and the Heckler Speak has slowly been tackling hall of fame cases for his new-and-improved hall of fame. He recently looked at the cases for Barry Larkin and Fred McGriff.
• Lastly, in case you haven't yet heard: Jason Bartlett agreed to a two-year deal with the Padres, Edgar Renteria's deal with the Reds (one-year $2.1MM plus $900K in incentives) was officially announced today, and the Reds announced a one-year $900K deal with Fred Lewis today. 

Looking Back at the 2010 Giants Projections

To say that 2010 was a season full of surprises would be an understatement: Pablo Sandoval and Tim Lincecum had disappointing sesasons; Mark DeRosa was injured after playing in only 26 games; Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff played far beyond expectations, putting up all-star caliber numbers; and Buster Posey had no trouble whatsoever in adjusting to the majors, becoming an elite catcher from day one (his debut). Lastly, the Giants picked up some phenomenal players on the way, namely Cody Ross, Javier Lopez, and Pat Burrell. Now that we've looked at (and made) projections for the 2011 season, I thought it'd be fun to take a look back at how certain Giants were expected to perform in 2010 (and compare it to their actual performance). This will give context to how surprising 2010 really was. For the purposes of this, I'll use ZiPS projections, one of the most well-respected projection systems out there. If you want to take a look at the 2010 ZiPS projections, they are available here.

Pablo Sandoval
Projected - .320/.368/.516; OPS+ 130
Actual - .268/.323/.409; OPS+ 95

Aubrey Huff
Projected - .270/.330/.448; OPS+ 102
Actual - .290/.385/.506; OPS+ 138

Aaron Rowand
Projected - .273/.335/.431; OPS+ 100
Actual - .230/.281/.378; OPS+ 75

Buster Posey
Projected - .263/.343/.398; OPS+ 95
Actual - .305/.357/.505; OPS+ 129

Freddy Sanchez
Projected - .296/.331/.414; OPS+ 95
Actual - .292/.342/.397; OPS+ 98

Edgar Renteria
Projected - .280/.336/.388; OPS+ 90
Actual - .276/.332/.374; OPS+ 90

Juan Uribe
Projected - .269/.311/.442; OPS+ 95
Actual - .248/.310/.440; OPS+ 99

Andres Torres
Projected - .254/.315/.397; OPS+ 86
Actual - .268/.343/.479; OPS+ 119

As can be seen from these comparisons, which look at only eight of the Giants, there were many surprises. Torres, Huff, and Posey far exceeded expectations; on the other hand, Rowand and Sandoval far underperformed. All in all, the Giants ended up playing much better than expected, taking home a World Series trophy with an offense that, before the season began, was the subject of ample criticism.

Rowand for Fukudome

According to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, the Giants and Cubs discussed an Aaron Rowand - Kosuke Fukudome swap. While it's a long shot at this point, it would certainly benefit the Giants.

Propelled by a career-low .263 BABIP, Rowand put up his worst season in 2010, posting a slash line of .230/.281/.378; While he's due to regress to a more respectable line in 2011, he doesn't have the one thing Fukudome has -- an exceptional walk rate.

In spite of a career-low .287 BABIP, Fukudome put up a respectable line of .263/.371/.439; That's the kind of plate discipline the Giants need. Guys who get on base 37% of the time -- and keep in mind that it was an off-year for Fukudome -- are rare.

In addition, Fukudome's contract is nicer. He's got one year and $13.5MM left on his contract, whereas Rowand has another two years at $12MM/year. The extra $1.5MM is absolutely worth it, considering that it would free up that spot in the payroll a year in advance.

Also, Fukudome gives the Giants a more powerful lefty bat off the bench; power which Travis Ishikawa, Nate Schierholtz, and Mike Fontenot fail to supply.

It's probably not going to happen, but I'd be happy if it did.

Locking Up Buster Posey

Over the last few years, baseball has seen a dramatic shift in the importance of home-grown talent. While wealthy powerhouses such as the Yankees have the spending power to be annually competitive, the strength of other teams seems to fluctuate based on the success of their farm systems. Consequently, many executives have placed a greater emphasis on rewarding promising young players with long-term extensions, hoping to save millions down the road. In just the past month, both Troy Tulowitzki and Jay Bruce have scored mega-deals keeping them in their respective uniforms for the foreseeable future. Lengthy contracts such as these are certainly risky, but often justified, as younger players are often willing to sacrifice salary for financial security.

With a breathtaking rookie campaign, Buster Posey has solidified his status as a cornerstone player the Giants will look to build around for the next decade or so. Unless a catastrophe occurs, he will surely be offered a long-term extension within the next few years. Due to a controversial Triple A stint in 2010, Posey will not become a free agent until after the 2016 season. However, like Tim Lincecum, he will qualify as a "Super Two" player, giving him an extra year of arbitration eligibility. For more detailed information on Buster's service time, I recommend reading this excellent article. The logical time for a Posey extension is 2012 because it is the first year he will be eligible for the arbitration process. Furthermore, the departures of Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand will free up millions of dollars. With a rejuvenated payroll, money should not be a major obstacle compared to the length of the contract itself.

As a Giants fan, is tempting to suggest that Brian Sabean should lock up Posey for the rest of his career. However, doing so would create a significant risk for the entire organization. Posey is a gifted player, but his success is far from guaranteed, due to baseball's volatility. Catchers are especially vulnerable to the effects of the long, strenuous season, as the strain put on their legs makes significant injury more plausible. A lengthy contract to a catcher is considered risky, no matter what the price is.

Since Posey has inevitably been compared to Joe Mauer, it seems only logical to analyze Mauer's durability. Following his MVP campaign, Mauer signed a highly touted eight-year $184MM extension that takes him through his age 35 season. While he is an exceptionally talented player, pundits assert that this contract will eventually spell disaster for the Twins. Over the past five years, Mauer has averaged 114 games per season at catcher due to various injuries. He's also spent a significant chunk of time at DH, a luxury Posey won't have. Despite individual player differences, Mauer's lack of constancy on the field does not bode well for any team seeking to extend a young catcher for a long period of time.

Another warning can be found in the form of rookie Cleveland Indians catcher Carlos Santana. The young backstop displayed exceptional patience and power at the plate during his time in 2010. Unfortunately, his promising season was brought to an abrupt end when he was injured in a head-on collision at the plate. While Santana is expected to return for the 2011 season, it is impossible to predict how he will respond to the physical and mental effects of this alarming experience. This type of incident is always a risk with Posey, and if it was to occur in the upcoming years, it would severely cripple the Giants' hopes of contention.

While durability is difficult to predict, it is obvious that catchers are more injury-prone than other position players, especially as they age. They play in fewer games and can often fall into prolonged slumps due to fatigue. For this reason, the Giants must be cautious when planning out an extension in the coming years. If the success continues, Brian Sabean will feel pressured to reward his young catcher with an immense contract. At present time, it is too early to predict a reasonable amount of money and years for a player of Posey's talent. It is, however, important to remember that superstar catchers face unique limitations that are often easy to forget.

Random Musings...

I just have a couple of random things I feel that I need to say, which are not worthy of individual posts....

First off, great article on Bay City Ball about Velez. Seriously. It says everything there is to say about Velez. By the way, Bay City Ball is a great Giants blog to read if you're more statistically-inclined.

Also, what happened to FireSabean? FireSabean wasn't necessarily a popular guy -- when the Giants were enjoying much success, day after day I would hear Giants analysts disparaging him -- but I always respected him. Not because I felt he was entirely correct -- he was a bit extreme (for example, when the Giants won an extra-inning game, I recall him saying something like "The Giants should have been able to win that game in nine innings. This is an outrage. A real GM would build a team that can win in nine innings." But because he was steadfast in his beliefs. He dealt with a lot of criticism, yet continued to believe that Brian Sabean was a bad GM. I'm disappointed he's gone -- I feel he just gave up on his beliefs. History can't erase the fact that Sabean signed Aaron Rowand and Barry Zito to those atrocious contracts; and I feel too much credit was given to Sabes for the World Series title. Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Brian Wilson, etc. were there because of the Giants' scouting department, not Sabes. I don't care if Sabean has a scouting background -- he's given more credit than he deserves, and that's all that I'll say on the matter.

Notes...

Apologies for the relative inactivity lately...in my defense, though, the Giants have been relatively inactive lately...

• The Giants aren't interested in Johnny Damon or Rick Ankiel. Frankly, I would hope so. As long as they have Andres Torres, Aaron Rowand, Nate Schierholtz, Cody Ross, and Pat Burrell, they don't need another outfielder. 
• The Giants have strong interest in Andrew Miller. He'd certainly be an interesting "reclamation project," although it didn't end up working with Dontrelle Willis. I don't know where he'd fit in to the Giants' picture, but I'm a fan of the low-risk high-reward deals. 
• Brian Sabean said the Giants' payroll could reach $120MM in 2011. This doesn't particularly surprise me...The Giants had a payroll of around $100MM for 2010, so taking into account the fact that they won the World Series, one would expect them to be in the $110MM-$120MM range. 
• Freddy Sanchez will undergo yet another surgery. He should be ready for the season-opener, according to Dave Groeschner, but we'll wait and see. At least the Giants only have to deal with Sanchez's injuries for one more year...

More Offseason Talk....

Andrew Baggarly, San Jose Mercury News beat-writer notes:

A lot of folks might assume the Giants are no longer interested in trading for Jason Bartlett, or to a lesser extent, J.J. Hardy and Marco Scutaro. Don’t be so sure of that yet. Remember, the front office has threatened Sandoval with a demotion to Triple-A Fresno to start the year if he doesn’t make progress in his conditioning this offseason. You can’t make a threat like that without having alternatives on the roster, and considering how important defense will be to their pitching-centric club, Tejada is a better fit at third base, anyway.

Well, it's not the case. As recently noted by none other than Andrew Baggarly, the Giants aren't in on Bartlett. He says, "Now I'm hearing Giants are out on a Jason Bartlett trade. They had $5-7 million budgeted for a starting SS and spent it on Tejada." So we're back to square one. The Giants will need shortstop depth. I just don't think Emmanuel Burriss is a decent backup shortstop. And Brandon Crawford just isn't ready...


I suppose it's a good thing that Tejada was acquired to be a starting shortstop (rather than a backup plan at third base), in that it actually somewhat justified his $6.5MM contract. But this means the Giants are still lacking depth at short, and not seeking to fix that with a Hardy, Scutaro, or a Bartlett. Unless of course, they tender Mike Fontenot a contract. I guess I could see him as a backup shortstop. He produced negative WAR with the Giants in 2010, and I've never been too fond of him (he doesn't stand out in any categories: speed, defense, average, power), but as a backup shortstop, I suppose he'll do.

I'm curious as to what the Giants' next moves are...do they need another outfield reserve, like Pat Burrell? Or is it enough to have Aaron Rowand, Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Nate Schierholtz, and Aubrey Huff?

For the price I'm not interested, but Lance Berkman is intriguing. He wants to play outfield or first base, both of which, I suppose he would add depth to (although the Giants are really not in need of a first-baseman). With a resurgence of the bat, he would be the new-and-improved Pat the Bat. Seriously. He takes walks, he has Burrell-like power, and he's a switch hitter. With dedication to fitness, he'd be as good as Burrell in the outfield. But again, too much money, aging, and there's the injury risk. An intriguing name for discussion, though, I suppose...thoughts?

Are the Giants going to get a Matt Stairs? A hitter whose primary, and pretty much only role is to be the pinch-hitter? That was the goal with Burrell, but he sort of forced his way into the starting lineup. I wonder if the Giants will try to get this. Maybe Russell Branyan or a Mike Sweeney? Probably not, though. They have an excess of position players, with Whiteside, Burriss, Rowand, Schierholtz, Ishikawa, and possibly Fontenot.

My guess at the starters for 2011:
C Posey
1B Huff
2B Sanchez
SS Tejada
3B Sandoval
LF DeRosa
CF Torres
RF Ross

So, I think the Giants are pretty much done with their offseason shopping. Some possible bench bats...names for discussion: Branyan, Sweeney, Berkman, any others? I'm interested to hear what your thoughts are...

Giants Sign Miguel Tejada for $6.5MM

The Giants just agreed to sign Miguel Tejada to a 1yr/$6.5MM contract. I am not even joking...

Yesterday, I defended Tejada as an option in an argument with a friend. I'll admit it. I cited three reasons as to why:

• Durable (he's averaged 158 games each season since 1999). Yes, he's going into his age-37 season. But I figured that wouldn't matter, given his durability in the past. 
• Due for a resurgence (his 2010 season seems to me like an outlier, and he could likely hit more like the player he was in 2009) 
• Cheap. I figured he'd be a last-minute option, and the Giants could get him for $3MM. After all, he was signed to a one-year $6MM deal in 2010, and performed worse than he ever has. I figured he'd receive quite a pay decrease. Man, was I wrong. 

Brian Sabean panicked. He saw the Cardinals acquire Ryan Theriot. He knew that he couldn't get Stephen Drew nor Jose Reyes. He knew Derek Jeter was not a legitimate possibility. Most importantly, he saw the Dodgers acquire NLCS hero Juan Uribe. J.J. Hardy was probably not easily accessible, nor was Jason Bartlett I suppose (there are speculations that the Rays wanted Sergio Romo...). So Sabes acted fast. Too fast. And he gave Miguel Tejada twice as much money as he deserves. 

I don't dislike Tejada as the Giants' starting shortstop, and maybe I'm crazy because of it. After all, he produced 1.4 WAR in 59 games with the Padres. Obviously, that's a partial product of small sample size. But he's not terrible. He could easily produce 2 WAR for the Giants, which would render him, in some eyes, an average shortstop.

But this is not how the Giants succeed. They succeed by getting those bargain contracts, like the $6MM that they had to shed out for the combination of Aubrey Huff and Juan Uribe in 2010. And it got them to the World Series. 

This is a stupid deal, not because Tejada is bad -- although it would be nice if the Giants got a player that wasn't nearing 40 years of age -- it's that they gave him $6.5MM. I think, in terms of WAR, he could very possibly meet that value (or even exceed it). He produced 1.3 WAR last year, his worst season ever, and that's valued at near $6.5MM. So I don't doubt that he can live up to the contract.

But again, that's not how the Giants succeed. They need players to be worth more than their contract. For $3MM, I would love to have Tejada. Of course, I would appreciate if the Giants had a decent back-up plan, for the possibility that Tejada gets injured or just plain sucks, but I would have been fine with a one-year $3MM deal. Even in spite of his declining power, his poor walk rates, his terrible defensive range, and his age.

This contract can be filed under Brian Sabean's terrible contracts, along with the Aaron Rowand contract, the Dave Roberts contract, and the Barry Zito contract. It won't harm the Giants too much, but it was an obvious mistake. 

I can now feel content in going back to criticizing Sabean. Everybody fell in love with him when the Giants won the World Series, although I felt that he was receiving too much credit. Hopefully, people will be able to recognize that not all of his moves are brilliant, like the acquisitions of Cody Ross and Pat Burrell. Hopefully, people will realize that Tejada is receiving more money than he deserves and more money than the Giants needed to pay him. 

If Tejada returns to his 2009 form, I will still hate this contract. To reiterate, it's more money than the Giants needed to pay him.

UPDATE: As Andrew Baggarly notes, "Tejada also has led his league in ground-ball double plays in five of the last seven seasons. Recall that the Giants broke a 70-year-old franchise record for GIDPs in 2010, with Pablo Sandoval pacing the NL." Yikes...

Andres Torres: Platoon?

Throughout the playoffs, opposing managers routinely brought left-handed specialists to face leadoff hitter Andres Torres. The rationale for this move is simple. Torres, a switch hitter, is perceived as a bigger threat from the left than the right. Some numbers seem to support this notion. In 2010, Torres hit a solid .284 from the left while managing only a meager .226 from the right. In addition, 14 of his 16 home runs this year came from the left. These stats lead manager Bruce Bochy to flirt with the idea of platooning Torres with a right handed hitter such as Aaron Rowand. There are several reasons that this is a bad idea for 2011.

When looking only at 2010, Andres Torres appears to be significantly better from the left side. Interestingly enough, this was not always the case. If you remember back to 2009, Torres' offensive production came almost completely from the right side. In limited playing time, he hit a robust .338 from the right and a mere .210 from the left. While both of these numbers are small sample sizes, they show that Andres is capable of being a respectable hitter from the right side. What should we expect from Andres Torres in 2011? His 2010 peripheral stats indicate that he is due for a small resurgence as a right-handed hitter. His right-handed BABIP of .275 was below league average, especially for a man of his speed. He actually hit more line drives and fewer pop-ups from the right side. It is reasonable to expect that Andres Torres will not have a significant platoon split next year. He may be a better hitter from the left side, but he is certainly not terrible from the right.

Another essential aspect of Andres Torres' game is his speed. The Giants' projected 2011 lineup will be one of the slowest in the league. Just last year, Aubrey Huff ranked second in the stolen bases category with just seven. Cody Ross has above average speed, but he has never stolen more than ten bags a season. If the Giants fail to get a speedy shortstop such as Jason Bartlett, Torres will be the only running threat on a team that already struggles to push runs across the plate. His ability to make things happen on the bases is invaluable. For this reason, keeping him out of the lineup is simply not an option.

Torres' final and arguably most important asset is his defense. While he was snubbed of a Gold Glove this year,  he was undeniably one of the best outfielders in baseball. His amazing range was crucial when Bruce Bochy chose to surround him with two DH's, Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen. Better yet, he has the ability to play all three positions with ease. According to Ultimate Zone Rating, Andres Torres was 21.2 runs above average in the field in 2010. That number ranks him as the second best defensive player in the game, trailing only Yankees speedster Brett Gardner. Even if Torres continues to flounder while hitting from the right side, his excellent glove work should more than compensate.

The Great Nate Debate

Guest post by Zachary Chiang.

Everyone knows that Buster Posey is a very talented young player. Another article praising his offensive prowess, defensive instinct, and unheralded leadership would simply be redundant. His highly anticipated debut did not disappoint, and his overall performance went above and beyond expectations. In the wake of the rookie catcher's amazing season, it is important to remember that not every transition to the big leagues is quite as smooth as his. Let's take a look at one of the quiet contributors to the Giants' championship run.

At this point in his young career, Nate Schierholtz is best known for his brutal collision with the Chinese catcher in the '08 Beijing Olympics. Once thought to be the right fielder of the future, the Danville native was denied regular playing time with the big league club even after hitting .320/.363/.594 with 18 HRs in 93 games at the AAA level. While most Giants fans hold Nate's defensive skills in high regard, many seem to have varying opinions of his offensive ability. Some see him as a slap hitter with value only as a fourth outfielder, while others believe his star potential has been stunted by his limited playing time. Realistically, if Nate became more consistent, he would be a solid hitter, similar to David DeJesus.

A look at Nate's stats year by year turns up unimpressive results, but even with an abyssal line of .242/.311/.366 in 2010, there are bright spots to be picked out. Back on May 6th, he peaked out at .381/.458/.587 with a stellar 3 for 4 day. In June of '09, he hit .375 and people wanted to install him as high as third in the order. Even in his impressive '08 call up, he produced 1.2 WAR by pounding out 10 extra base hits in a mere 19-game stretch. With respect to small sample size, it is obvious that Nate is prone to streakiness. There are several months in which he hit under .200 with no sign of power whatsoever. However, it is appalling to think that the Giants could not find him regular playing time during their mediocre '07 and '08 seasons. Who knows what he could have accomplished as a regular the last three or four years?

Next year, Andres Torres and Cody Ross are locked into starting outfield roles. If Schierholtz were to land the last spot, Ross would be shifted to left as he was in the playoffs. Unfortunately, this scenario seems to be very improbable. Mark DeRosa will be back, and possibly return to left field. Aaron Rowand may have accepted a bench role this year, but it seems unlikely that he'll start the year there. Lastly, there still is the possibility of re-signing veteran leader Pat Burrell or picking up another free agent outfielder. As usual, 2011 will be an uphill battle for Nate. He must show management that he can play not only as well, but better than the veterans who will continue to block his way.

Do you have a strong opinion on Nate Schierholtz? We encourage you to comment below.

Should the Giants Re-sign Pat Burrell?

Should the Giants re-sign Pat Burrell? As of now, they have the following five players that can man the outfield:

• Cody Ross
• Andres Torres
• Aaron Rowand
• Nate Schierholtz
• Mark DeRosa

With such a crowded outfield, is there room for Burrell?

In 96 games with the Giants, he put up a .266/.364/.509 slash line, and hit 18 home runs. Among the San Francisco Giants, he had the second-highest OBP behind Aubrey Huff's .385, and his OPS+ of 132 was also second-best on the team, behind Huff's 138. The two benefits that Burrell brings are as follows:

1. Plate Discipline...Burrell's walk rate of 13.8% was easily tops among the Giants, and he and Huff were the only two Giants with double-digit walk rates. How important is walk rate? Well, consider this. The Giants ranked in the bottom ten in the majors in walk rate for 2010; in other words, they need players with plate discipline, because they are quite lacking in that category. Before they had Huff and Burrell, their offense had mighty struggles because none of their players could take a walk. Because free-swinging Bengie Molina left, and Pablo Sandoval was no longer the big bat in the middle of the lineup, the Giants were able to create a balanced cast of players (especially thanks to Burrell and Huff) that could guide them to the playoffs.

Keep this in mind: The Giants were the only team in the bottom-ten in the majors in walk rate that made it to the playoffs. Astros didn't make it. Orioles didn't make it. Royals, White Sox, Angels, Mariners, Pirates, Blue Jays, Cubs did not make it. So, what to take from this? The Giants are in need of players who can walk. And in that category, Burrell is quite adequate.

2. Power...Burrell's 18 home runs were tied for third-best on the Giants. His SLG of .509 was the best on the team, and although it's a small sample size (341 plate appearances), his ISO of .242 indicates that he has great power. In 2009, the Giants did not have a Huff. They did not have a Posey. And they did not have a Burrell. Burrell was one of the major bats in the lineup that drove the Giants' offense to a World Series title by virtue of his ability to crush the ball.

The Giants aren't desperate in this category. They've got Posey, Sandoval might rediscover his 2009 power bat, Torres has a little pop, Huff could be brought back, Uribe could be brought back. Burrell's power isn't a necessity, but it's surely nice to have.

Ah, but every rose has its thorns. Burrell does have two major perceived flaws:

1. High K rate...Burrell's strikeout rate of 26.6% was the second-worst on the team behind Eli Whiteside. And surely, his dreadful World Series in which he batted .000 and struck out 11 times in 13 at-bats, is not forgotten. If he's supposed to be a big bat in the middle of the order, the way I see it, he needs to make contact a little more often.

2. Defense...the defensive merits of Burrell are hard to get a full grasp on, merely because he hasn't played a full season in the outfield since 2008. What is a sure fact, however, is that advanced defensive metrics haven't been too kind to Burrell throughout his career. Since 2002, he's cost his teams about 40 runs on defense (based on UZR). His arm is average, however, and especially adequate for a left-fielder.

Quite lacking, however, is Burrell in his ability to cover range. In 2006-2008, his range (or lack thereof) cost the Phillies 44.5 runs (based on RngR). Having seen Burrell run, it's not hard to understand that he can't cover much range out in left field.


So what to take from all of this?

On the offensive side, I feel like Pat Burrell is a less-extreme version of Mark Reynolds. He's got power, walks a lot, and strikes out a lot.

On the defensive side, he's nothing special. The Giants, however, could work around that flaw. They could give Burrell the same treatment they did this year, taking him out for later-inning defensive improvement. Also, if he was to be used as a pinch hitter, the Giants wouldn't have to deal with his mediocre defense. That was, after all, the original intention when he was acquired. I don't think he wants to turn into Matt Stairs at the age of 34, though.

The big looming question is, how much will Burrell want? Based on his WAR, his performance with the Giants in 2010 was worth about $11MM. After seeing his bat disintegrate in the World Series, however, I have lost confidence in the belief that he's back to being an impact bat.

I think the Giants should just play it safe. I think they should give Burrell a small contract (like Huff's 1yr/$3MM deal) to be a pinch-hitter and occasional left-fielder (an outfield reserve). And if all goes well, he'll force himself into a starting outfield spot as he did in 2010. If he's not willing to take such a small contract, he's not worth it. He's too risky at this point. I wouldn't want to see that World Series Pat Burrell struggle at the plate day after day in 2011 and receive ten million dollars for those services. That risk is just too eminent.

After all, how did the Giants enjoy so much success in 2010? The bargain contracts that outweighed their horrible contracts. Torres, Huff, Posey, Bumgarner etc. all played top-notch baseball on cheap contracts. That's how this team is going to need to build success around Rowand's 5yr/$60MM contract and Zito's 7yr/$126MM contract.

Yes, this is rather cruel. Pat the Bat did a lot to help the Giants bring home their first-ever World Series title since moving to San Francisco. But in order to succeed, they need to minimize risk. And I see Burrell as a mighty risk, given his bat's propensity for rapid-aging.

Andrew Baggarly - "Bringing back Pat Burrell is a matter the Giants are discussing right now. I know Bochy loves Burrell’s clubhouse presence, but he’d likely be in a reserve role."

Jason Wong Graphics

I got permission from Jason Wong to post some of his SF Giants graphics. They are incredible. Here's a look at some of them...(Click to enlarge)

WS Game Two Recap

Matt Cain has been the Giants' best starter this year. I said this same exact thing on September 30, and it still rings true. In the postseason, he's been as good as...ever. He's looking like a legendary pitcher. Want some proof?

He's gone three consecutive postseason starts with 6+ IP and 0 ER allowed. This has been done by only six other pitchers in the history of baseball:

Rk		Strk Start	End	Games	IP	ER
1	Kenny Rogers	2006-10-06	2006-10-22	3	23.0	0
2	Burt Hooton	1981-10-13	1981-10-21	3	20.2	0
3	Jon Matlack	1973-10-07	1973-10-17	3	23.0	0
4	Whitey Ford	1960-10-08	1961-10-04	3	27.0	0
5	Waite Hoyt	1921-10-06	1921-10-13	3	27.0	0
6	Christy Mathewson	1905-10-09	1905-10-14	3	27.0	0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/28/2010.

Whitey Ford and Christy Mathewson? If you ask me, that's some pretty good company.

His 2010 postseason ERA is a perfect 0.00...he's allowed just 13 hits in 21.1 innings thus far. He's struck out 13. Cliff Lee, who's been proclaimed one of the greatest postseason pitchers of all time, has an ERA of 2.51 in the 2010 playoffs.

His WS Gm 2 line: 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 K, 2 BB. The strikeout numbers weren't impressive, and he got a little help from the defense (Nate Schierholtz, for example), but he certainly didn't disappoint. He was able to induce popouts to shut down the Rangers.

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Edgar Renteria and Aaron Rowand combined for five RBIs and three runs. They've been criticized, scrutinized, disparaged the entire season for injury-marred sub-par offensive seasons. They were overpaid (Renteria is making $9MM this year and Rowand is making $13MM this year), but they've come out and done the job when it's mattered most -- in the World Series. Rowand is batting .375 this postseason (8 AB) with a couple of runs and a couple of RBIs. Renteria has batted just .240 but he's played solid defense and scored five runs.

Were they grossly overpaid? Yes, of course. But they're proving that they aren't worthless. They can contribute, even on the big stage.

This team was built around veterans. Those are the kinds of players Bruce Bochy and Brian Sabean love -- ones with experience. They have Huff, Sanchez, Uribe, Renteria, Ross, Rowand, and Burrell as veteran position players, all players with veteran experience (especially Huff, Burrell, and Renteria). Renteria has logged over 60 postseason games in his career. Maybe that's having a positive impact. Maybe -- just maybe -- it wasn't such a bad idea to build this team based on the philosophy that experience is ideal. It certainly seems to be playing a role in these postseason games.

As far as Rent and Rowand go, this will go down as one of their best (if not the best) games they've had in a Giants uni'. There was the home opener, in which Renteria hit a ninth-inning game-tying shot off of Billy Wagner and Rowand got the walkoff single. There was the game in '09 (I believe August 30) in which Edgar Renteria hit a grand slam to give the Giants a 6-5 lead over the Colorado Rockies. Today's game tops their best moments as Giants.

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This has been almost too easy. The Giants have scored 20 runs in their last two games. These are World Series games, though. This is supposed to be top-notch baseball, fierce, tight, tense competition between the best in the game. The Rangers have failed to match the Giants' level of play. It seems to all be coming down to the thing the analysts blatantly ignored: the bullpen. When choosing the Giants as underdogs in each postseason series, the media has sized up the Giants' offense as weak, and therefore come to the conclusion that the other team was better. They've been overlooking the bullpens, though. The Giants used relievers for seven scoreless innings to win NLCS Game 6, the pennant-clincher. Does any other postseason team have the bullpen depth to have done that? I seriously doubt it. The Rangers' bullpen has allowed 11 earned runs over the last two games. The Giants' bullpen? Three earned runs.

Derek Holland walked three Giants on 13 pitches. I can't honestly think of a Giants pitcher that would do that. I doubt Bruce Bochy would let a Giants reliever walk three consecutive batters. These games have been handed to us.

It's almost sad, because there's been very little torture. Finally, the pieces have come together. Everybody is hitting...there was always the potential in every Giants bat -- from Torres to Renteria (yes, Renteria has always had potential). Finally, this potential has come to fruition, all at once.

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These next three games are looking good.
Game Three: Colby Lewis is a flyball pitcher, and he'll be pitching in a hitters park, The Ballpark in Arlington. Although his home/road splits don't show it, I think the Giants will benefit from the longball in this game.

Game Four: Madison Bumgarner is a much, much, much better pitcher than Tommy Hunter. 'nough said.

Game Five: Cliff Lee. The Giants have gained a psychological advantage over him after destroying him in Game One. Throw in the fact that Lee has a career 5.07 ERA pitching in Texas and you have a good outlook.

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Bruce Bochy is showing that he is a good manager. At the end of the regular season, I would've been outraged at the notion of him winning Manager of the Year. I found Bud Black to be much more competent. But Bochy once again made critical, intelligent decisions. He brought in Nate Schierholtz in the seventh inning as a defensive replacement, and Nate promptly made a great catch. His decision to bring in Javier Lopez in the eighth inning with two outs to face Josh Hamilton worked out well too.

And...his decision to throw Lincecum in Game One and Cain in Game Two was highly successful.

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Ross extended his hit streak to nine games. He's moving up on the list of top Giants postseason hit streaks. I'll post the stat table tomorrow.

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TWO MORE WINS.

The Giants: DH Options

There was a very good article on Fangraphs (by Dave Cameron) about the Giants DH options.

Basically, the Giants will have to face a minimum of two leftys in their three games in Texas. They'll face CJ Wilson in Game Three, and Cliff Lee in Game Five, and they might (although I doubt it) face the lefty Derek Holland in Game Four. That means, ideally, their DH would be able to hit left-handed pitching.

Dave Cameron proposes four options in his article:

1. DH Pablo Sandoval. This could work...Sandoval has a good power bat, and the Giants would certainly benefit from having a different guy manning third base. The clear problem here, however, is that he hasn't hit well against left-handed pitchers this year. He's batted just .227 with one home run from the right side in 2010.

2. DH Pat Burrell. Put Aaron Rowand in the outfield. This is not an option that I am very enthusiastic about. Pat Burrell has never had success in his career as a DH (you might remember that he was designated for assignment earlier this year, after doing a terrible job as the Tampa Bay Rays DH). As Dave Cameron points out, he’s a career .209/.306/.348 hitter when not playing the field." I don't think it would be fair to put Burrell in a position that he's uncomfortable with, especially if it's being done merely so the Giants can fit Rowand's bat into the lineup. Even if the Giants did DH Pat Burrell, I would prefer that they use Nate Schierholtz in the outfield. They'd have better defense, speed, and Schierholtz actually has hit leftys well in his career (.354/.390/.500). <--- that's no mistake. He's seriously been that good against LHP, although it is bloated quite a bit by luck (.414 BABIP vs. LHP in his career).

3. DH Aubrey Huff. Put Travis Ishikawa at first base. This is an attractive option from a defensive standpoint...not that Huff is a bad defender. Ishikawa is top-notch though. The problem here is quite obvious, and it's the fact that Travis Ishikawa is a left-handed hitter. He has not had much success against LHP in his career,  with a .230/.288/.246 slash line. In these one-run games, though, defense is quite important. His glove certainly outweighs his lack of offensive ability.

4. DH Jose Guillen. I don't think there's any reason this should be done whatsoever. I don't care that Jose Guillen is a right-handed hitter. He's old, slow, hasn't played in weeks, and his bat isn't even good -- he strikes out a lot, rarely walks, and doesn't hit with much power. So no. This is not an option. I doubt he'll even make the World Series roster.

So what's the best option? In Game Four, if Tommy Hunter pitches, DH Aubrey Huff and put Travis Ishikawa at first base. The Giants will benefit both defensively and offensively, as Travis Ishikawa is a good defender and can hit right-handed pitching well. In Game Three, I'm fine with trying Pat Burrell. I suppose putting Aaron Rowand in the outfield might work, as he is a right-handed hitter, and would benefit from the fact that the Rangers stadium is a hitters park. If DHing Burrell doesn't work, then the Sandoval option can be attempted for Game Five. When in doubt though, go with what will help the team defensively. Ask Brooks Conrad. Ask Chase Utley. Ask anyone that's played in the postseason so far. Defense has made a huge impact in these tight games, and I would hate to see the Giants lose because Aubrey Huff bobbles a ball, Pat Burrell can't get to a ball in time, or Pablo Sandoval overthrows first base.

The options aren't great. I think they just need to go with what's working. If someone's hot in Games One and Two, don't stop playing them...

NLCS Game Four Recap

Entering Wednesday's game, Buster Posey and Aubrey Huff had tallied a combined three hits in the NLCS. They broke out in Game Four with a combined seven hits...now that's the Huff and Posey we've all come to know and love.

This is how the Giants were meant to win ballgames...with the help of the two guys who drove their offense this year. Buster Posey and Aubrey Huff are the reason the Giants got this far. Finally, these first-time playoff participants are carrying their 2010 performance into the postseason.

And with that...the Giants are ONE GAME AWAY FROM THE WORLD SERIES.

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Game Summary:

First inning: Buster Posey knocks in Freddy Sanchez for the first run.

Third inning: Buster Posey hits an RBI double to give the Giants a 2-0 lead.

Fifth inning: Giants' lead falls apart...Phillies lead off with two consecutive singles, a sac bunt, and another single to bring the score to 2-1. Chase Utley singles, and Madison Bumgarner is then replaced with Santiago Casilla.

Casilla gives up a two-run double to Placido Polanco, intentionally walks Ryan Howard, hits Jayson Werth with a pitch, and allows the fourth run of the inning to score on a wild pitch.

Giants 2 Phillies 4

In the bottom half of the inning, Andres Torres draws a walk. He advances to second on a groundout, and scores on a single by Aubrey Huff.

Sixth inning: After Pat Burrell draws a walk and Cody Ross doubles, Pablo Sandoval gives the Giants a 5-4 lead with a two-run double.

Seventh inning: Javier Lopez pitches a scoreless innning.

Giants fail to score when Pablo Sandoval grounds into a double play with the bases loaded.

Eighth inning: Lopez allows a leadoff double to Ryan Howard. Sergio Romo replaces him, but immediately allows a double to Jayson Werth to tie the game at 5-5.

Ninth inning: Phillies bring in Roy Oswalt to pitch the ninth in a tied ballgame. Huff singles, Posey singles, and Juan Uribe hits a sacrifice fly to deep left field to win the ballgame in walkoff fashion.

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This was the seventh walkoff win for the Giants on the year. Uribe also had one on August 14, against the San Diego Padres. 

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Glad that Andres Torres got some more playing time today. He went one for two, showing signs of breaking out of his slump. With his speed, he was able to manufacture a run, advancing to second on a groundout after his walk, and scoring on a single. He was caught stealing after he singled in the eighth, though...I'll keep saying it: I want him out there in the field and in the starting lineup over Aaron Rowand. Defense is just too valuable. And when Torres gets hot, he's as good as anyone in the game of baseball (or at least, as good as any centerfielder and/or leadoff hitter).  

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Some things you can't see from just the box score:

• Aaron Rowand nailed Carlos Ruiz at home. 
• Madison Bumgarner did a nice job picking Jimmy Rollins off at first base.
• Juan Uribe had a nice defensive play coming off the bench in the ninth inning.

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Buster Posey. He is everything that's good about the San Francisco Giants. Four hits -- including two doubles -- and two RBIs. All while spending nine innings behind the plate. Just an incredible kid. Derek Jeter, step aside! The face of the postseason for the next ten years is right here:

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Let's face it: Bumgarner wasn't spectacular in Game Four...4.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. But he's exceeded expectations. For him to come up this year, post a 3.00 ERA, and still be a vital part of this rotation in the postseason (so much so that he made the postseason roster easily but the Barry Zito and his 7-year $126MM contract couldn't) is incredible. He struck out six, and only gave up three earned runs. Against one of the best offenses in the majors. In a critical game. At age 21. Come on?! Even though the start wasn't great, what he did is pretty amazing. Hopefully this won't be the last time this postseason that he pitches.

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This was definitely the game of the series, and moreover, the game of the year. Everybody contributed: Posey, Ross, Torres, Uribe, Sandoval, Burrell, Huff. 

After watching this game, I can't say that the Phillies have any chance at the World Series. I just wouldn't believe it at this point. In an act of desperation, they used six pitchers today. 

Sure, they have Roy Halladay on the mound, and he is an innings-eater. But the game's in San Francisco. And the Giants have beaten Halladay twice this year. And the Phillies will be facing Tim Lincecum. And even if they win Game Five, they would still have to win the next two games, against very good pitching. I'd be very surprised if the Giants don't win this series. 

But...nothing can be taken for granted at this point.

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Ready for this?