Pat the BBat [sic]

I recently got a subscription to MLB.TV, and as such, watched the first game of the World Series once more. What I mostly got out of it was a refreshed confidence in Pat Burrell. Burrell didn't do much in the game, striking out thrice (yes, I just said 'thrice') in three at-bats; yet, I feel as though he played a crucial role in helping the Giants win the game. The one thing he did in that game: draw a walk.

It wasn't just any walk, though; it was a walk from Cliff Lee. Coming into the at-bat, Lee had walked just one hitter in the postseason. In fact, during the entire season, Lee allowed a mere 18 walks for a sparkling BB/9 of 0.76...

So Burrell comes to the plate in the bottom of the fifth inning with two outs, and the game at a close 3-2. If he were to strike out then and there, well, the game would remain tight, and who knows what would've happened? Lee would've exited the inning without much damage -- just an RBI double to Freddy Sanchez -- and it would have been torturous. But Burrell didn't strike out. He worked the count, something that's very difficult to do against the almighty Cliff Lee. He worked the count full, then he drew a walk. Not only did he get several pitches out of Lee (I believe the best way to attack Lee is to raise his pitch count as soon as possible), but he extended the inning. And guess who came up after him? The NLCS MVP. I don't like to place importance on the intangibles, but I believe this momentum was crucial. If you're Lee, you had a chance to get out of the inning, and failed. Not only did you fail, but you wasted eight (or was it seven?) pitches in doing so. And now, as you're losing the first game of the World Series by a score of 3-2, you must face Cody Ross, the NLCS MVP, with two runners on. Oh yeah, and in the midst of your tense battle with Pat Burrell, your manager sent Darren O'Day to go warm up, implying that he doesn't completely trust that you can get out of the inning. Well, maybe, just maybe, that walk gave the Giants huge momentum.

Because after that walk, Ross and Aubrey Huff hit RBI singles, knocking Lee out of the game. Then O'Day came in to relieve him, and gave up a three-run homer to Juan Uribe.

Had Burrell struck out to end the inning, the Giants would be winning 3-2. Instead, they finished the inning with an 8-2 lead, and more importantly, Cliff Lee sulking on the bench. Thinking about this, I'm able to ignore the fact that he was atrocious overall in the World Series, and had a WPA of -9.5% for Game One. That walk just meant more to me than the numbers, even though it's seemingly illogical.

I'm admittedly biased because I have a love affair with walks. Perhaps it's because I've been so deprived of walks with players like Bengie Molina, while the team across the bay has high-walk players like Daric Barton (who had the highest walk rate in the majors), and now Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui. But I digress.

That walk, in spite of all of the other at-bats Burrell had in the World Series -- which, I'll admit, were difficult to watch -- makes me happy to have Burrell returning to San Francisco.

Walks are highly critical yet underappreciated. They don't carry the same excitement as a hit, but they're still invaluable. For perspective: the Giants had the tenth-lowest walk rate in the majors in 2010. Of the nine teams with worse walk rates than the Giants, zero made the playoffs. Now, of course, correlation does not imply causation. But certainly, it means something, that not one of the nine teams with the worst walk rates in the majors made the playoffs.

In terms of walks, Huff and Burrell carried the Giants, with respective rates of 12.4% and 13.8%. Huff's rate will probably decline, as it was his first-ever 10+% walk rate, so Burrell (career 14.3% walk rate) will need to carry the team in that aspect.

I love that he walks so much, as it makes him an asset to the team. (In fact, I love it so much, that I'm willing to ignore the fact that he has more World Series rings than hits.) Then, I think about the fact that he's coming back on a one-year $1MM deal without any incentives. And I want to construct brilliant prose in honor of Pat the Bat's greatness...perhaps a take-off on the Cat in the Hat. It's just begging to be written. Ah, but I'm not that creative. So I'll just leave this picture here, for all to admire.

The Giants and Baserunning

I recently got the 2011 Bill James Handbook (which I highly recommend, by the way), and one of the sections in the book is about 2010 Major League Baserunning. I was not surprised at all to find that the Giants were the second-worst baserunning team in the majors -- behind only the Kansas City Royals.

For context -- an average major leaguer went from first to third on a single 28% of the time; a very good baserunner will go from first to third on a single about 38% of the time; and a very slow runner will do it about 18% of the time. 

The Giants went from first to third on a single 82 times in 297 chances for a rate of 27.6%...so they were one base below average. 

Now, an average major league player scored from second on a single 58% of the time; a very good baserunner will score from second on a single around 70% of the time; and a very slow runner will score from second around 41% of the time. 

The Giants scored from second on a single 100 times in 170 chances for a rate of 58.8%...so they were one base above average. 

Lastly, an average major leaguer will score from first on a double 44% of the time; 62% is very good, 27% is very poor. 

The Giants scored from first on a double 31 times in 84 chances for a rate of 36.9%...about six bases below average. 

A player is credited with a base taken when they advance on a passed ball, a wild pitch, a sac fly, a defensive indifference, or a balk. The Giants had 167 bases taken, which was about six bases below average. 

The Giants, meanwhile, were thrown out advancing 25 times -- tied for tenth-best in the majors, and were doubled off 17 times -- tied for the worst mark of any major league team. 

In average, a player grounds into a double play (in a double play opportunity) 11% of the time. The Giants grounded into a major-league worst 157 double plays. They had 1135 GIDP opportunities, so that rate comes to about 13.8%, or 32 double plays below average. 

Baserunning Gain comprises all of these statistics...it is "the total of all the types of extra baserunning advances minus the (triple) penalty for all the BR Outs compared with what would be expected based on the MLB averages"....BR Outs "include the sum of Outs Advancing, Doubled Offs, and when a runner is tagged out on the bases when another runner moves up on a Wild Pitch, Passed Ball, or scores on a Sacrifice Fly."

The Giants had 43 BR Outs and their BR Gain of -42 was the fifth-worst mark in the majors. 

Meanwhile, the Giants had an SB Gain of -9, the absolute worst in the majors. SB Gain is based on the fact that stolen base attempts must be successful greater than about two thirds of the time to have a positive result on the number of runs scored. It is therefore "the number of bases stolen minus two times the number of caught stealing (SB Gain = SB - 2CS)." The Giants stole 53 bases (26 of which were stolen by Andres Torres), and were caught stealing 31 times, so that equates to 53-62 which is equal to -9. 

The Giants had an overall net gain (SB Gain + BR Gain) of -51, trailing only the Kansas City Royals as the worst baserunning team. 

Some stand-out individual Giants net gains:

• Andres Torres +28
• Nate Schierholtz +13
• Pablo Sandoval -27
• Aubrey Huff +8
• Edgar Renteria, Cody Ross (with Marlins and Giants), and Buster Posey +1
• Bengie Molina (with Giants and Rangers) -13
• Jose Guillen (with Royals and Giants) -25

It seems as though the Giants have moved in the wrong direction in fixing their baserunning problem, as Miguel Tejada had a net gain of -5, a bit worse than Rent's mark of +1. Jason Bartlett, a shortstop that I had wanted the Giants to go after, had a net gain of +21, markedly better.

Again, if you like obscure yet important statistics like this, I highly recommend that you get the Bill James 2011 Handbook.

Should the Giants Re-sign Pat Burrell?

Should the Giants re-sign Pat Burrell? As of now, they have the following five players that can man the outfield:

• Cody Ross
• Andres Torres
• Aaron Rowand
• Nate Schierholtz
• Mark DeRosa

With such a crowded outfield, is there room for Burrell?

In 96 games with the Giants, he put up a .266/.364/.509 slash line, and hit 18 home runs. Among the San Francisco Giants, he had the second-highest OBP behind Aubrey Huff's .385, and his OPS+ of 132 was also second-best on the team, behind Huff's 138. The two benefits that Burrell brings are as follows:

1. Plate Discipline...Burrell's walk rate of 13.8% was easily tops among the Giants, and he and Huff were the only two Giants with double-digit walk rates. How important is walk rate? Well, consider this. The Giants ranked in the bottom ten in the majors in walk rate for 2010; in other words, they need players with plate discipline, because they are quite lacking in that category. Before they had Huff and Burrell, their offense had mighty struggles because none of their players could take a walk. Because free-swinging Bengie Molina left, and Pablo Sandoval was no longer the big bat in the middle of the lineup, the Giants were able to create a balanced cast of players (especially thanks to Burrell and Huff) that could guide them to the playoffs.

Keep this in mind: The Giants were the only team in the bottom-ten in the majors in walk rate that made it to the playoffs. Astros didn't make it. Orioles didn't make it. Royals, White Sox, Angels, Mariners, Pirates, Blue Jays, Cubs did not make it. So, what to take from this? The Giants are in need of players who can walk. And in that category, Burrell is quite adequate.

2. Power...Burrell's 18 home runs were tied for third-best on the Giants. His SLG of .509 was the best on the team, and although it's a small sample size (341 plate appearances), his ISO of .242 indicates that he has great power. In 2009, the Giants did not have a Huff. They did not have a Posey. And they did not have a Burrell. Burrell was one of the major bats in the lineup that drove the Giants' offense to a World Series title by virtue of his ability to crush the ball.

The Giants aren't desperate in this category. They've got Posey, Sandoval might rediscover his 2009 power bat, Torres has a little pop, Huff could be brought back, Uribe could be brought back. Burrell's power isn't a necessity, but it's surely nice to have.

Ah, but every rose has its thorns. Burrell does have two major perceived flaws:

1. High K rate...Burrell's strikeout rate of 26.6% was the second-worst on the team behind Eli Whiteside. And surely, his dreadful World Series in which he batted .000 and struck out 11 times in 13 at-bats, is not forgotten. If he's supposed to be a big bat in the middle of the order, the way I see it, he needs to make contact a little more often.

2. Defense...the defensive merits of Burrell are hard to get a full grasp on, merely because he hasn't played a full season in the outfield since 2008. What is a sure fact, however, is that advanced defensive metrics haven't been too kind to Burrell throughout his career. Since 2002, he's cost his teams about 40 runs on defense (based on UZR). His arm is average, however, and especially adequate for a left-fielder.

Quite lacking, however, is Burrell in his ability to cover range. In 2006-2008, his range (or lack thereof) cost the Phillies 44.5 runs (based on RngR). Having seen Burrell run, it's not hard to understand that he can't cover much range out in left field.


So what to take from all of this?

On the offensive side, I feel like Pat Burrell is a less-extreme version of Mark Reynolds. He's got power, walks a lot, and strikes out a lot.

On the defensive side, he's nothing special. The Giants, however, could work around that flaw. They could give Burrell the same treatment they did this year, taking him out for later-inning defensive improvement. Also, if he was to be used as a pinch hitter, the Giants wouldn't have to deal with his mediocre defense. That was, after all, the original intention when he was acquired. I don't think he wants to turn into Matt Stairs at the age of 34, though.

The big looming question is, how much will Burrell want? Based on his WAR, his performance with the Giants in 2010 was worth about $11MM. After seeing his bat disintegrate in the World Series, however, I have lost confidence in the belief that he's back to being an impact bat.

I think the Giants should just play it safe. I think they should give Burrell a small contract (like Huff's 1yr/$3MM deal) to be a pinch-hitter and occasional left-fielder (an outfield reserve). And if all goes well, he'll force himself into a starting outfield spot as he did in 2010. If he's not willing to take such a small contract, he's not worth it. He's too risky at this point. I wouldn't want to see that World Series Pat Burrell struggle at the plate day after day in 2011 and receive ten million dollars for those services. That risk is just too eminent.

After all, how did the Giants enjoy so much success in 2010? The bargain contracts that outweighed their horrible contracts. Torres, Huff, Posey, Bumgarner etc. all played top-notch baseball on cheap contracts. That's how this team is going to need to build success around Rowand's 5yr/$60MM contract and Zito's 7yr/$126MM contract.

Yes, this is rather cruel. Pat the Bat did a lot to help the Giants bring home their first-ever World Series title since moving to San Francisco. But in order to succeed, they need to minimize risk. And I see Burrell as a mighty risk, given his bat's propensity for rapid-aging.

Andrew Baggarly - "Bringing back Pat Burrell is a matter the Giants are discussing right now. I know Bochy loves Burrell’s clubhouse presence, but he’d likely be in a reserve role."

Jason Wong Graphics

I got permission from Jason Wong to post some of his SF Giants graphics. They are incredible. Here's a look at some of them...(Click to enlarge)

WS Game Three Recap

Jonathan Sanchez was rough: 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 HR, 4 BB, 3 K. The big blow was a second-inning three-run blast by Mitch Moreland, who was batting in the nine-hole. It's funny because going into this series, that's the person I would've picked to watch out for. I knew very little about him, except that he could work the count, and that he was good enough to be a starting first baseman for a team playing in the World Series. Why in this case? It's always the one you least suspect -- he was batting ninth. Anyway...I didn't expect much out of Sanchez going into this game for several reasons:

1. He was coming off of a bad start
2. Pitching on the road
3. Pitching in a hitters ballpark
4. Facing a lot of right-handed hitters
5. The Rangers have a good running game, so it doesn't help that Sanchez walks a lot of hitters
6. Sanchez isn't great at controlling the running game

He did poorly, but the two home runs he allowed were to left-handed hitters. The walks cost him though. Bengie Molina, who was walked in the second inning, scored on the Moreland homer and a walk issued to Vladimir Guerrero marked the end of Sanchez's night. It's scary to think that this could potentially be the Game Seven starter in the World Series. You never know what to expect with him.

Colby Lewis, on the other hand, was remarkable: 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K. He was just masterful in terms of hitting the corners, and the Giants couldn't do anything. The lone mistakes were solo home runs allowed to Andres Torres, and yes, you guessed it, Cody Ross.

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Jonathan Sanchez aside, the one player that sticks out in this game is Pat Burrell. He is scuffling right now. He went 0 for 4 with four strikeouts. At what point do you start playing someone else out there in left field? This is the World Series, after all, so hesitation could be very costly. The way I see it, he's in there for two reasons: he walks, and he hits bombs...but he's .158 in the postseason overall, with 19 strikeouts in 38 at-bats. His performance in the World Series is even worse, as he's gone 0 for 9 with eight strikeouts. To his credit, he does have two walks. But if he can't get a hit tomorrow, I don't want to be seeing him in Game Five, against Cliff Lee, who already silenced Burrell's bat in Game One. Tommy Hunter isn't a great pitcher. He shall be a good test of Burrell's bat. If Pat the Bat can't get anything done in Game Four, sit him. His defensive incompetence is already enough of a liability. They don't need his bat to be costing them games (not that they lost Game Three just because of him).

Is anybody open to the idea of Nate Schierholtz possibly starting in Game Five? It would solidify the Giants' defense (I can think of few outfield defenses that are better than Ross/Torres/Schierholtz) and he's a career .354 hitter against left-handers (he would face Lee). Not to mention, he's 1 for 1 with a walk and an RBI single in the World Series thus far. Just an idea. All I know is, solid defense can make the difference between a win and a loss. The way Burrell's playing right now, I want Nate out there.


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DHing Pablo Sandoval didn't work. He went 0 for 3 with a strikeout and a double play. With a right-hander on the mound, I would like to see Travis Ishikawa at first base with Aubrey Huff as the DH. Better defense, better offense. Sounds like an improvement to me.

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No worries here. Giants just need to win one of the next two games. Game Four is a matchup between Madison Bumgarner and Tommy Hunter, and frankly, Bumgarner's a much better pitcher. Game Five is Cliff Lee, pitching in Texas (where he has a 5.00+ ERA in his career), against the team that destroyed him in Game One. I think the Giants have a good chance of winning one of those games...This way they return home with a 3-2 series lead, and only need to win one of the two games at home in order to win the World Series. Oh yeah, and Matt Cain will be on the mound in Game Six. Can we win Game Six? Yes we Cain. Oh, do I get joy out of saying that.

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Here's yet another SF Giants song. This one's by DJ E-Rock:

WS Game One Recap

What a game...

Let's start with the pitching matchup:

Tim Lincecum did not pitch well. There's no getting around it...his final line -- 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 3 K. Any game where Lincecum goes 5+ innings and manages just three strikeouts is a bad game, for him. He's only done that six times in his career. It's quite excusable, though, considering the offensive outburst the Giants had, the somewhat sloppy defense played behind him, and the fact that he's facing one of the best offenses in the majors.

Cliff Lee, who came into this game with tons of hype (considering his career postseason dominance), but had a terrible start: 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 7 K. In all fairness, he had the large gap created in right field due to Vladimir Guerrero's poor range, but it didn't seem to play a big role in his disaster of a game. Most of the hits he allowed were right up the middle, indicating that the Giants were timing his pitches very well.

Lee entered the game with a 0.75 postseason ERA in 2010. His 2010 postseason ERA is now 2.51

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This isn't the first time the Giants have done well against an elite starting pitcher. They've put up crooked numbers against some of the best in the game this year. Here are some notable incidences:

4/26 Roy Halladay - 7 IP, 5 ER
5/8 Johan Santana - 7.2 IP, 4 ER
7/3 Ubaldo Jimenez - 6 IP, 7 ER
9/12 Mat Latos - 4 IP, 5 ER
10/8 Tommy Hanson - 4 IP, 4 ER
10/16 Roy Halladay - 7 IP, 4 ER
10/28 Cliff Lee - 4.2 IP, 6 ER

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Player of the game? The guy who used this as his walk-up music. Freddy Sanchez.

Sanchez went 4 for 5 with three doubles, two runs, three RBIs. He became the 13th player in World Series history to have three doubles in a single game. He came close to tying the record with a fourth double, but his final hit was ruled a single with an error by Vladimir Guerrero.

Most Doubles in a World Series Game:

Player	Date	Series	Tm	2B
Frank Isbell	1906-10-13	WS	CHW	4
Jacoby Ellsbury	2007-10-27	WS	BOS	3
David Eckstein	2006-10-26	WS	STL	3
Craig Biggio	2005-10-08	NLDS	HOU	3
Trot Nixon	2004-10-27	WS	BOS	3
Jim Edmonds	2000-10-05	NLDS	STL	3
Bret Boone	1999-10-26	WS	ATL	3
Fred McGriff	1995-10-11	NLCS	ATL	3
Jim Gilliam	1953-10-03	WS	BRO	3
Al Dark	1951-10-08	WS	NYG	3
Hank Greenberg	1945-10-07	WS	DET	3
Max Carey	1925-10-15	WS	PIT	3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/27/2010.

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Bengie Molina got a very warm welcome from San Francisco Giants fans. He gave the team three good years, so it was nice to see this. He also had a decent game: a couple of hits, an RBI, and two runs scored.

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Santiago Casilla shall be acknowledged for his 1.1 no-hit no-BB scoreless innings of baseball. He helped to settle the game down when the Rangers were starting to mount a comeback. He will likely play a critical role in this series, as the Rangers have a plethora of hot-shot right-handed hitters: Elvis Andrus (debatable), Michael Young, Nelson Cruz, Vladimir Guerrero, Ian Kinsler, and the way he's hitting right now, Bengie Molina. The Giants don't have -- at this point -- a solid middle relief right-handed pitcher that they can trust. Sergio Romo was good all year. Ramon Ramirez was great for the Giants. Even Guillermo Mota had his good moments. But not one of them has shined in the postseason. Someone's gotta step up, and I think it'll be Casilla or Romo. We'll see how it unfolds. But if the Giants offense keeps having outbursts like these, it won't really matter.

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Nothing is predictable in the postseason. Everybody thought that the Roy Halladay v. Tim Lincecum matchup would be an amazing pitchers duel, but it was rather disappointing (not that they didn't pitch well). Everybody thought that the Cliff Lee v. Tim Lincecum matchup would be an amazing pitchers duel (Lee, Lincecum poised for Game 1 greatness), but it was quite the opposite.

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11 of the last 13 teams that have won Game One of the World Series have gone on to win the series. The Giants, if they win Game Two, will only need to win one of three games in Texas to stay in good shape. Winning Game One was huge. They did this to their ace, at ATT Park, which is not a hitters park, especially compared to the Ballpark in Arlington. Three wins away from a World Series Title. It feels good

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Killing the Time

In anticipation of the World Series, here are several poorly-made photoshops...don't worry. I'll keep 'em coming. FEEL FREE TO SEND IN YOUR OWN SF-TEX PHOTOSHOPS to blog@splashingpumpkins.com!

Tim Lincecum and Josh Hamilton

Pat Burrell and Cliff Lee

Bengie Molina and Nate Schierholtz

Freddy Sanchez chewin' on some Colby Lewis

Brian Wilson and Elvis Andrus

NLCS Game Six Recap

WE'RE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES!

Congratulations, Bengie

Congratulations to Bengie Molina. The Texas Rangers are going to the World Series!

TEX vs. SF World Series...a possibility

On July 1, Bengie Molina was traded to the Texas Rangers for Chris Ray and Michael Main. The Rangers are now in the ALCS...one step away from the World Series. It seems like a perfect time to look at some comments he made a while ago to Carl Steward regarding his time in San Francisco and Texas.

Extra Baggs: "Here’s Bengie, the mad cyclist himself, on life as Ranger, as told to Carl:

'It’s been a great experience so far. The first five or six guys in the lineup are all all-stars, and to play with them, it’s unbelievable. I’m still kind of getting used to the whole thing, but my teammates have been so awesome making me feel welcome and comfortable. It’s made a difference.'

(how closely do you follow the Giants)

'Every day I check to see how they’re doing. I left a lot of friends and people that I love so much and care about, so I follow along. I know that they’re doing really well and I’m very happy for that.'

(how about a Texas-SF World Series?)

'That would be awesome. That would assure me of a ring. But from my point of view, I really have to concentrate on the Texas Rangers right now. Not that I’m going to forget about the Giants, but I need to concentrate a little more on where I am and what I have to do with this team to try to get them to the World Series and win it.'

'I wish the best to everybody over there. I’m still in touch with some of the guys. I don’t know how it is without me, but it sure looks like they’re having fun out there and they’re winning. So I’m very excited and happy for them.'

(thoughts on Posey and his first month)

'I never had a doubt that the kid was going to be a superstar soon in the league. I didn’t know how soon because I’m not mind-reader, but I knew that he had the skills and talent to be up there and take care of that pitching staff, and he’s shown it. We still text back and forth sometimes just to say hi and make sure everything’s OK and things like that. I wish him the best, because he’s a good friend of mine. He will forever be a good friend. It doesn’t matter that he took my place or whatever, he will still be a good friend.'

I would love to see an SF-TEX World Series. Not only do I think they are an easier potential matchup than the New York Yankees, but it would also be their first World Series. Frankly, I'm sick of Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, etc...I'm sick of the Yankees playing in the World Series. It would be nice to see Texas finally play in a World Series.