Notes: Brian Wilson on Lopez Tonight, Aaron Rowand

• The Phillies/Aaron Rowand trade rumors are starting up again.
• Brian Wilson will be making an appearance on Lopez Tonight. I'll try to post a video of it. He's going to be debuting a short film in which he starred (and co-wrote). 
• Oh, and he might be dying his beard new color to mark the occasion...(Edit: he's apparently going to be dressed as a sea captain.)
• Grant at McCovey Chronicles provides his attempt at building the 2011 batting order. I like Pablo Sandoval in the #8 spot a lot, actually -- at least for the time being. I'd love to see him work his way up the lineup, much like Cody Ross did. 
• SBNation took a humorous look at the best baseball names of all time. 
• 17 days till pitchers and catchers report!
• If you ever have an interesting video, article, blog post, photo, etc. that you think should be included in a Notes post, don't hesitate to email me (blog@splashingpumpkins.com) or tweet to me (@splashinpumpkin). 

Giants Sign Cody Ross, Jonathan Sanchez, Ramon Ramirez, Santiago Casilla

The Giants signed four of their arb-eligibles today to one-year deals...

Cody Ross, NLCS MVP, signed a $6.3MM deal.

Jonathan Sanchez signed a $4.8MM deal with an additional $50K if he reaches 200+ IP.

Ramon Ramirez signed for $1.65MM.

Lasly, Santiago Casilla signed a $1.3MM deal with up to $50K in incentives. Fun fact: Casilla threw four pitches last year that reached 100+ MPH -- he was one of nine National League pitchers to throw that many in 2010.

The San Francisco Giants and Home Runs

As a baseball blogger, I read dozens of baseball articles each day. I'm fascinated and influenced by the myriads of brilliant pieces out there. A while ago, I ran into this post on Athletics Nation, examining the A's home runs using Hit Tracker Online. I've been meaning to look at the Giants' home runs for quite some time, but I would be remiss if I didn't first acknowledge the Athletics Nation post that influenced this. Anyway, here goes...

I love Hit Tracker Online. It shows the true distances of home runs, the speed off the bat, the date, the ballpark, the pitcher, the hitter, the teams, and a link to the Top Plays Archive, where a video of the home run can be found. To put it simply, it's awesome.

Without further ado, some notes on the Giants 2010 home runs...

• The longest home run of the year...Andres Torres off of Rodrigo Lopez on July 22, 2010, in Arizona. This one had a true distance of 450 ft. I love that Torres has the Giants' longest home run of the year. Not Pat Burrell. Not Pablo Sandoval. Not Aubrey Huff. The speedy guy, whose power nobody seems to trust. Yet, over the past two seasons, in 740 PAs, he's posted an ISO of .223...that's legitimate power. And he swings the heaviest bat on the team. Literally. I also love what Kruk says after this home run..."That's up where Barry Bonds used to hit 'em."
• The second, third, and fourth longest home runs of the year...courtesy of Pablo Sandoval. He may not have had a great season in terms of power, but when he got a hold of 'em, he hit 'em deep. And these were spread throughout the season....One was in April, one came in June, and one came in August.
• Home run with the fastest speed off the bat...Aubrey Huff off of Chris Narveson at Miller Park. 113.4 MPH off the bat.
• Home run with the highest apex...Andres Torres off of Carlos Villanueva at Miller Park. Apex of 134 feet. (Gotta love that four-game sweep at Miller Park...)
• The Giants had two inside-the-parkers...Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff. "That's right Mr. Huff. You hit home runs here, you gotta earn 'em."
• Some other great home runs from 2010, just because...Juan Uribe's HR in World Series Game One. Juan Uribe's HR in NLCS Game Six. Juan Uribe's HR off of Jonathan Broxton. Cody Ross' home runs in NLCS Game One: first and second. Pat Burrell's grand slam (his second HR of that game). Juan Uribe's grand slam (his second HR of that inning). Oh yeah, and I love this Huff home run, for whatever reason. Lastly, of course, Edgar Renteria's HR in World Series Game Five. 

Because there's so many, here are the honorable mentions....Burrell off of Broxton (couldn't find the video of this one). Ishikawa's grand slam off of Ubaldo Jimenez. Renteria's home-opening day home run off of Billy Wagner. 

• One of my favorite things in baseball is the walkoff home run. I love walkoff home runs. Something about a player being able to end the game with one swing of the bat. Something about the brief period of time in which you can watch the ball sail through the air, awaiting its descent into the stands. Something about the way in which the player who hits the home run pauses for a second to gaze at the beautiful work he's done. I love them. I'm very saddened by the fact that the Giants went the entire season without a walkoff home run....but this one from 2009 was pretty awesome.

Notes: Wiffle Ball, Injuries, Promotional Schedule

• Jeff Zimmerman looked at the payroll amounts tied up in injured players in 2010. The Giants spent $12.3MM on players on the DL, good (or bad?) for 12.5% of their payroll, a fairly average mark. 
• The Giants released their 2011 promotional schedule, and there's some really good stuff there if I do say so myself: World Series Ring Keychain, Buster Posey Pin, World Series Replica Trophy, World Champions Cap, Willie Mays Statue Replica, Tim Lincecum/Cody Ross/Buster Posey/Aubrey Huff bobbleheads, Madison Bumgarner T-Shirt, etc. My favorite though: Belt Buckle. I presume this is a Brandon Belt reference...
• If you have a Twitter account, you should follow Splashing Pumpkins so that you can get instant updates of posts and read my terribly unfunny puns. 
• At this quiet time in the Giants offseason, this has been one of the biggest pieces of news recently: Dan Szymborski wrote an article for ESPN insider about the Giants' obstacles of repeating (subscription req'd). If you don't have an insider account like me, you should read the post about it by Otis Anderson of Bay City Ball, who does a good job of explaining it.
• 32 days till pitchers and catchers report!
• This wiffle-ball pitcher is nasty. I just have to post this here. (h/t Off Base Percentage) 

San Francisco Giants - 2011 ZiPS Projections

Dan Szymborski released his 2011 ZiPS projections.

Highlights for me:

• Nate Schierholtz is projected to hit better than Mark DeRosa. This is no surprise, obviously, with DeRosa coming off of wrist surgery, but it's still interesting. If there's an outfield spot open, I'd much rather see the trio of Ross/Torres/Schierholtz out there than DeRosa/Torres/Ross. 
• Brandon Belt: .266/.357/.440 
• Freddy Sanchez...he's aging, but I think he can do better than his projection of .278/.320/.386

Looking Back at the 2010 Giants Projections

To say that 2010 was a season full of surprises would be an understatement: Pablo Sandoval and Tim Lincecum had disappointing sesasons; Mark DeRosa was injured after playing in only 26 games; Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff played far beyond expectations, putting up all-star caliber numbers; and Buster Posey had no trouble whatsoever in adjusting to the majors, becoming an elite catcher from day one (his debut). Lastly, the Giants picked up some phenomenal players on the way, namely Cody Ross, Javier Lopez, and Pat Burrell. Now that we've looked at (and made) projections for the 2011 season, I thought it'd be fun to take a look back at how certain Giants were expected to perform in 2010 (and compare it to their actual performance). This will give context to how surprising 2010 really was. For the purposes of this, I'll use ZiPS projections, one of the most well-respected projection systems out there. If you want to take a look at the 2010 ZiPS projections, they are available here.

Pablo Sandoval
Projected - .320/.368/.516; OPS+ 130
Actual - .268/.323/.409; OPS+ 95

Aubrey Huff
Projected - .270/.330/.448; OPS+ 102
Actual - .290/.385/.506; OPS+ 138

Aaron Rowand
Projected - .273/.335/.431; OPS+ 100
Actual - .230/.281/.378; OPS+ 75

Buster Posey
Projected - .263/.343/.398; OPS+ 95
Actual - .305/.357/.505; OPS+ 129

Freddy Sanchez
Projected - .296/.331/.414; OPS+ 95
Actual - .292/.342/.397; OPS+ 98

Edgar Renteria
Projected - .280/.336/.388; OPS+ 90
Actual - .276/.332/.374; OPS+ 90

Juan Uribe
Projected - .269/.311/.442; OPS+ 95
Actual - .248/.310/.440; OPS+ 99

Andres Torres
Projected - .254/.315/.397; OPS+ 86
Actual - .268/.343/.479; OPS+ 119

As can be seen from these comparisons, which look at only eight of the Giants, there were many surprises. Torres, Huff, and Posey far exceeded expectations; on the other hand, Rowand and Sandoval far underperformed. All in all, the Giants ended up playing much better than expected, taking home a World Series trophy with an offense that, before the season began, was the subject of ample criticism.

2011 Giants Hitting Projections

So far, Fangraphs has posted the Bill James projections and the Fans projections. I thought it'd be fun to project the slash lines and home run numbers of the Giants' (presumable) starting eight (along with our personal commentary on our projections). I'd love to hear input from readers...post your own projections in the comments, or simply gives us your take on our projections...

We're Giants fans, so our projections are probably biased, but whatever.

Buster Posey:

• Bill James - .308/.370/.506; 21 HRs
• Fans - .304/.374/.483; 20 HRs
• Julian Levine - .310/.380/.500; 25 HRs...I don't expect much to change with Posey, with the exception of an improved walk rate.
• Zachary Chiang - .290/.360/.490; 20 HRs...More patience, less power. Might tire down the stretch.

Aubrey Huff:

• Bill James - .269/.348/.453; 19 HRs
• Fans - .282/.358/.456; 21 HRs
• Julian Levine - .280/.350/.460; 18 HRs...I expect a natural decline in Huff's numbers from his stellar 2009 campaign, but I think he'll remain solid. He won't be a major home run threat, especially playing in AT&T Park, and his walk rate will probably decline from his peak '09 season, but he'll still be an impact bat in the heart of the lineup.
• Zachary Chiang - .275/.360/.460; 20 HRs...Basically a repeat of last year, minus a scorching July.

Freddy Sanchez:

• Bill James - .285/.330/.401; 8 HRs
• Fans - .290/.336/.385; 6 HRs
• Julian Levine - .290/.340/.400; 7 HRs...I don't really expect Sanchez's numbers to change much at all from his '09 numbers. Rather, I expect his consistency to improve. He had a hot August that raised his numbers a bit, after he had had a prolonged slump; I expect fewer up's and down's in 2010.
• Zachary Chiang - .295/.340/.400; 10 HRs..Hoping he can improve on a career best walk rate.

Pablo Sandoval:

• Bill James - .308/.363/.492; 18 HRs
• Fans - .295/.345/.476; 19 HRs
• Julian Levine - .310/.375/.510; 20 HRs...Sandoval's a polarizing figure. Some say he'll play like he did in '10, which was rather mediocre and disappointing; others say he'll play like he did in '09 -- all-star caliber hitting. I lean towards the optimistic side. I think he'll hit for a high average with good power. AT&T Park will definitely take a few home runs away from him, so I expect a lot of doubles -- like 40-50.
• Zachary Chiang - .290/.330/.450; 20 HRs...Bounces back to somewhere between '09 and '10.

Miguel Tejada:

• Bill James -.279/.324/.415; 17 HRs
• Fans - .272/.311/.389; 13 HRs
• Julian Levine - .280/.320/.405; 12 HRs...low walk rate, doubles power, decent average.
• Zachary Chiang - .275/.320/.400; 15 HRs...Amazing comeback isn't that likely. Solid, if anything.

Pat Burrell:

• Bill James - .237/.351/.443; 20 HRs
• Fans - .255/.350/.440; 19 HRs
• Julian Levine - .250/.350/.440; 17 HRs...exceptional walk rate, good power.
• Zachary Chiang - .240/.320/.450; 20 HRs...Not much confidence after weak postseason performance.

Andres Torres:

• Bill James - .271/.340/.440; 14 HRs
• Fans - .270/.343/.420; 12 HRs
• Julian Levine - .270/.340/.460; 15 HRs..I'm a believer in Torres. In 740 PAs in 2009 and 2010, he posted an ISO of .223...I don't think my projected ISO of .190 is extremely optimistic.
• Zachary Chiang - .260/.330/.420; 10 HRs..A little bit low, but I think some pitchers will figure him out.

Cody Ross:

• Bill James - .265/.321/.444; 18 HRs
• Fans - .274/.335/.446; 19 HRs
• Julian Levine - .270/.330/.460; 20 HRs...Okay, I got a little crazy here. But I don't know. I feel like he has some legitimate power, and it will just come flowing out in 2010. Lots of doubles, and lots of home runs (yes, I just called 20 home runs "lots of home runs". Gee, I miss Barry Bonds...)  I think the fact that he has decent speed will help give a little boost to his power numbers, as he'll stretch several singles into doubles.
• Zachary Chiang - .275/.320/.430; 15 HRs...Will be hard for him to meet unrealistic expectations.

Looking at the projections, it seems the Giants have five guys with decent potential to hit 20 HRs...they don't have any sluggers, but they have nice power throughout the lineup. It's certainly enough offense to support that stellar rotation (which we'll project some time in the near future).

Pat the BBat [sic]

I recently got a subscription to MLB.TV, and as such, watched the first game of the World Series once more. What I mostly got out of it was a refreshed confidence in Pat Burrell. Burrell didn't do much in the game, striking out thrice (yes, I just said 'thrice') in three at-bats; yet, I feel as though he played a crucial role in helping the Giants win the game. The one thing he did in that game: draw a walk.

It wasn't just any walk, though; it was a walk from Cliff Lee. Coming into the at-bat, Lee had walked just one hitter in the postseason. In fact, during the entire season, Lee allowed a mere 18 walks for a sparkling BB/9 of 0.76...

So Burrell comes to the plate in the bottom of the fifth inning with two outs, and the game at a close 3-2. If he were to strike out then and there, well, the game would remain tight, and who knows what would've happened? Lee would've exited the inning without much damage -- just an RBI double to Freddy Sanchez -- and it would have been torturous. But Burrell didn't strike out. He worked the count, something that's very difficult to do against the almighty Cliff Lee. He worked the count full, then he drew a walk. Not only did he get several pitches out of Lee (I believe the best way to attack Lee is to raise his pitch count as soon as possible), but he extended the inning. And guess who came up after him? The NLCS MVP. I don't like to place importance on the intangibles, but I believe this momentum was crucial. If you're Lee, you had a chance to get out of the inning, and failed. Not only did you fail, but you wasted eight (or was it seven?) pitches in doing so. And now, as you're losing the first game of the World Series by a score of 3-2, you must face Cody Ross, the NLCS MVP, with two runners on. Oh yeah, and in the midst of your tense battle with Pat Burrell, your manager sent Darren O'Day to go warm up, implying that he doesn't completely trust that you can get out of the inning. Well, maybe, just maybe, that walk gave the Giants huge momentum.

Because after that walk, Ross and Aubrey Huff hit RBI singles, knocking Lee out of the game. Then O'Day came in to relieve him, and gave up a three-run homer to Juan Uribe.

Had Burrell struck out to end the inning, the Giants would be winning 3-2. Instead, they finished the inning with an 8-2 lead, and more importantly, Cliff Lee sulking on the bench. Thinking about this, I'm able to ignore the fact that he was atrocious overall in the World Series, and had a WPA of -9.5% for Game One. That walk just meant more to me than the numbers, even though it's seemingly illogical.

I'm admittedly biased because I have a love affair with walks. Perhaps it's because I've been so deprived of walks with players like Bengie Molina, while the team across the bay has high-walk players like Daric Barton (who had the highest walk rate in the majors), and now Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui. But I digress.

That walk, in spite of all of the other at-bats Burrell had in the World Series -- which, I'll admit, were difficult to watch -- makes me happy to have Burrell returning to San Francisco.

Walks are highly critical yet underappreciated. They don't carry the same excitement as a hit, but they're still invaluable. For perspective: the Giants had the tenth-lowest walk rate in the majors in 2010. Of the nine teams with worse walk rates than the Giants, zero made the playoffs. Now, of course, correlation does not imply causation. But certainly, it means something, that not one of the nine teams with the worst walk rates in the majors made the playoffs.

In terms of walks, Huff and Burrell carried the Giants, with respective rates of 12.4% and 13.8%. Huff's rate will probably decline, as it was his first-ever 10+% walk rate, so Burrell (career 14.3% walk rate) will need to carry the team in that aspect.

I love that he walks so much, as it makes him an asset to the team. (In fact, I love it so much, that I'm willing to ignore the fact that he has more World Series rings than hits.) Then, I think about the fact that he's coming back on a one-year $1MM deal without any incentives. And I want to construct brilliant prose in honor of Pat the Bat's greatness...perhaps a take-off on the Cat in the Hat. It's just begging to be written. Ah, but I'm not that creative. So I'll just leave this picture here, for all to admire.

Happy 30th Birthday Cody Ross!

The Giants and Baserunning

I recently got the 2011 Bill James Handbook (which I highly recommend, by the way), and one of the sections in the book is about 2010 Major League Baserunning. I was not surprised at all to find that the Giants were the second-worst baserunning team in the majors -- behind only the Kansas City Royals.

For context -- an average major leaguer went from first to third on a single 28% of the time; a very good baserunner will go from first to third on a single about 38% of the time; and a very slow runner will do it about 18% of the time. 

The Giants went from first to third on a single 82 times in 297 chances for a rate of 27.6%...so they were one base below average. 

Now, an average major league player scored from second on a single 58% of the time; a very good baserunner will score from second on a single around 70% of the time; and a very slow runner will score from second around 41% of the time. 

The Giants scored from second on a single 100 times in 170 chances for a rate of 58.8%...so they were one base above average. 

Lastly, an average major leaguer will score from first on a double 44% of the time; 62% is very good, 27% is very poor. 

The Giants scored from first on a double 31 times in 84 chances for a rate of 36.9%...about six bases below average. 

A player is credited with a base taken when they advance on a passed ball, a wild pitch, a sac fly, a defensive indifference, or a balk. The Giants had 167 bases taken, which was about six bases below average. 

The Giants, meanwhile, were thrown out advancing 25 times -- tied for tenth-best in the majors, and were doubled off 17 times -- tied for the worst mark of any major league team. 

In average, a player grounds into a double play (in a double play opportunity) 11% of the time. The Giants grounded into a major-league worst 157 double plays. They had 1135 GIDP opportunities, so that rate comes to about 13.8%, or 32 double plays below average. 

Baserunning Gain comprises all of these statistics...it is "the total of all the types of extra baserunning advances minus the (triple) penalty for all the BR Outs compared with what would be expected based on the MLB averages"....BR Outs "include the sum of Outs Advancing, Doubled Offs, and when a runner is tagged out on the bases when another runner moves up on a Wild Pitch, Passed Ball, or scores on a Sacrifice Fly."

The Giants had 43 BR Outs and their BR Gain of -42 was the fifth-worst mark in the majors. 

Meanwhile, the Giants had an SB Gain of -9, the absolute worst in the majors. SB Gain is based on the fact that stolen base attempts must be successful greater than about two thirds of the time to have a positive result on the number of runs scored. It is therefore "the number of bases stolen minus two times the number of caught stealing (SB Gain = SB - 2CS)." The Giants stole 53 bases (26 of which were stolen by Andres Torres), and were caught stealing 31 times, so that equates to 53-62 which is equal to -9. 

The Giants had an overall net gain (SB Gain + BR Gain) of -51, trailing only the Kansas City Royals as the worst baserunning team. 

Some stand-out individual Giants net gains:

• Andres Torres +28
• Nate Schierholtz +13
• Pablo Sandoval -27
• Aubrey Huff +8
• Edgar Renteria, Cody Ross (with Marlins and Giants), and Buster Posey +1
• Bengie Molina (with Giants and Rangers) -13
• Jose Guillen (with Royals and Giants) -25

It seems as though the Giants have moved in the wrong direction in fixing their baserunning problem, as Miguel Tejada had a net gain of -5, a bit worse than Rent's mark of +1. Jason Bartlett, a shortstop that I had wanted the Giants to go after, had a net gain of +21, markedly better.

Again, if you like obscure yet important statistics like this, I highly recommend that you get the Bill James 2011 Handbook.

Notes...

Apologies for the relative inactivity lately...in my defense, though, the Giants have been relatively inactive lately...

• The Giants aren't interested in Johnny Damon or Rick Ankiel. Frankly, I would hope so. As long as they have Andres Torres, Aaron Rowand, Nate Schierholtz, Cody Ross, and Pat Burrell, they don't need another outfielder. 
• The Giants have strong interest in Andrew Miller. He'd certainly be an interesting "reclamation project," although it didn't end up working with Dontrelle Willis. I don't know where he'd fit in to the Giants' picture, but I'm a fan of the low-risk high-reward deals. 
• Brian Sabean said the Giants' payroll could reach $120MM in 2011. This doesn't particularly surprise me...The Giants had a payroll of around $100MM for 2010, so taking into account the fact that they won the World Series, one would expect them to be in the $110MM-$120MM range. 
• Freddy Sanchez will undergo yet another surgery. He should be ready for the season-opener, according to Dave Groeschner, but we'll wait and see. At least the Giants only have to deal with Sanchez's injuries for one more year...

Non-Tenders: Velez and Ray; Fontenot Signed to a One-Year Deal

Eugenio Velez and Chris Ray have not been offered contracts. Mike Fontenot was signed to a one-year deal worth just over $1MM, and all the other arbitration-eligible Giants (Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Santiago Casilla, Ramon Ramirez, Javier Lopez, and Jonathan Sanchez) have been tendered contracts. It's all here.

Fontenot's deal will not have incentives, and I can't really see it hurting the Giants at all. He'll provide them with a veteran middle-infield bat, and the fact that he's left-handed obviously presents value -- keep in mind that Freddy Sanchez has had some trouble against right-handed pitching...Fontenot doesn't particularly shine in any categories -- not a top defender, doesn't have great speed, not much power, doesn't hit for a high average -- but as a backup middle infielder, he'll be fine.

With the Giants in 2010, he produced -0.3 WAR, played mediocre defense, and didn't hit for much power at all (.282/.329/.310). I've always been bothered by hitters whose SLG is higher than their OBP, and Fontenot was one of those guys with the Giants. It's not like his .329 OBP is dazzling either, so it doesn't really justify the fact that it's higher than his SLG. Anyway, I'm sure he's a better player than this. He's not an impact bat, but he'll play average defense, and he'll give the Giants a back-up left-handed middle-infield bat -- useful, if you consider that the Giants' starting middle infielders will be right-handed hitters Miguel Tejada and Freddy Sanchez.

Ray and Velez could potentially be signed to minor-league deals, but we'll see. Their time as San Francisco Giants is likely over.

More Offseason Talk....

Andrew Baggarly, San Jose Mercury News beat-writer notes:

A lot of folks might assume the Giants are no longer interested in trading for Jason Bartlett, or to a lesser extent, J.J. Hardy and Marco Scutaro. Don’t be so sure of that yet. Remember, the front office has threatened Sandoval with a demotion to Triple-A Fresno to start the year if he doesn’t make progress in his conditioning this offseason. You can’t make a threat like that without having alternatives on the roster, and considering how important defense will be to their pitching-centric club, Tejada is a better fit at third base, anyway.

Well, it's not the case. As recently noted by none other than Andrew Baggarly, the Giants aren't in on Bartlett. He says, "Now I'm hearing Giants are out on a Jason Bartlett trade. They had $5-7 million budgeted for a starting SS and spent it on Tejada." So we're back to square one. The Giants will need shortstop depth. I just don't think Emmanuel Burriss is a decent backup shortstop. And Brandon Crawford just isn't ready...


I suppose it's a good thing that Tejada was acquired to be a starting shortstop (rather than a backup plan at third base), in that it actually somewhat justified his $6.5MM contract. But this means the Giants are still lacking depth at short, and not seeking to fix that with a Hardy, Scutaro, or a Bartlett. Unless of course, they tender Mike Fontenot a contract. I guess I could see him as a backup shortstop. He produced negative WAR with the Giants in 2010, and I've never been too fond of him (he doesn't stand out in any categories: speed, defense, average, power), but as a backup shortstop, I suppose he'll do.

I'm curious as to what the Giants' next moves are...do they need another outfield reserve, like Pat Burrell? Or is it enough to have Aaron Rowand, Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Nate Schierholtz, and Aubrey Huff?

For the price I'm not interested, but Lance Berkman is intriguing. He wants to play outfield or first base, both of which, I suppose he would add depth to (although the Giants are really not in need of a first-baseman). With a resurgence of the bat, he would be the new-and-improved Pat the Bat. Seriously. He takes walks, he has Burrell-like power, and he's a switch hitter. With dedication to fitness, he'd be as good as Burrell in the outfield. But again, too much money, aging, and there's the injury risk. An intriguing name for discussion, though, I suppose...thoughts?

Are the Giants going to get a Matt Stairs? A hitter whose primary, and pretty much only role is to be the pinch-hitter? That was the goal with Burrell, but he sort of forced his way into the starting lineup. I wonder if the Giants will try to get this. Maybe Russell Branyan or a Mike Sweeney? Probably not, though. They have an excess of position players, with Whiteside, Burriss, Rowand, Schierholtz, Ishikawa, and possibly Fontenot.

My guess at the starters for 2011:
C Posey
1B Huff
2B Sanchez
SS Tejada
3B Sandoval
LF DeRosa
CF Torres
RF Ross

So, I think the Giants are pretty much done with their offseason shopping. Some possible bench bats...names for discussion: Branyan, Sweeney, Berkman, any others? I'm interested to hear what your thoughts are...

Giants Sign Miguel Tejada for $6.5MM

The Giants just agreed to sign Miguel Tejada to a 1yr/$6.5MM contract. I am not even joking...

Yesterday, I defended Tejada as an option in an argument with a friend. I'll admit it. I cited three reasons as to why:

• Durable (he's averaged 158 games each season since 1999). Yes, he's going into his age-37 season. But I figured that wouldn't matter, given his durability in the past. 
• Due for a resurgence (his 2010 season seems to me like an outlier, and he could likely hit more like the player he was in 2009) 
• Cheap. I figured he'd be a last-minute option, and the Giants could get him for $3MM. After all, he was signed to a one-year $6MM deal in 2010, and performed worse than he ever has. I figured he'd receive quite a pay decrease. Man, was I wrong. 

Brian Sabean panicked. He saw the Cardinals acquire Ryan Theriot. He knew that he couldn't get Stephen Drew nor Jose Reyes. He knew Derek Jeter was not a legitimate possibility. Most importantly, he saw the Dodgers acquire NLCS hero Juan Uribe. J.J. Hardy was probably not easily accessible, nor was Jason Bartlett I suppose (there are speculations that the Rays wanted Sergio Romo...). So Sabes acted fast. Too fast. And he gave Miguel Tejada twice as much money as he deserves. 

I don't dislike Tejada as the Giants' starting shortstop, and maybe I'm crazy because of it. After all, he produced 1.4 WAR in 59 games with the Padres. Obviously, that's a partial product of small sample size. But he's not terrible. He could easily produce 2 WAR for the Giants, which would render him, in some eyes, an average shortstop.

But this is not how the Giants succeed. They succeed by getting those bargain contracts, like the $6MM that they had to shed out for the combination of Aubrey Huff and Juan Uribe in 2010. And it got them to the World Series. 

This is a stupid deal, not because Tejada is bad -- although it would be nice if the Giants got a player that wasn't nearing 40 years of age -- it's that they gave him $6.5MM. I think, in terms of WAR, he could very possibly meet that value (or even exceed it). He produced 1.3 WAR last year, his worst season ever, and that's valued at near $6.5MM. So I don't doubt that he can live up to the contract.

But again, that's not how the Giants succeed. They need players to be worth more than their contract. For $3MM, I would love to have Tejada. Of course, I would appreciate if the Giants had a decent back-up plan, for the possibility that Tejada gets injured or just plain sucks, but I would have been fine with a one-year $3MM deal. Even in spite of his declining power, his poor walk rates, his terrible defensive range, and his age.

This contract can be filed under Brian Sabean's terrible contracts, along with the Aaron Rowand contract, the Dave Roberts contract, and the Barry Zito contract. It won't harm the Giants too much, but it was an obvious mistake. 

I can now feel content in going back to criticizing Sabean. Everybody fell in love with him when the Giants won the World Series, although I felt that he was receiving too much credit. Hopefully, people will be able to recognize that not all of his moves are brilliant, like the acquisitions of Cody Ross and Pat Burrell. Hopefully, people will realize that Tejada is receiving more money than he deserves and more money than the Giants needed to pay him. 

If Tejada returns to his 2009 form, I will still hate this contract. To reiterate, it's more money than the Giants needed to pay him.

UPDATE: As Andrew Baggarly notes, "Tejada also has led his league in ground-ball double plays in five of the last seven seasons. Recall that the Giants broke a 70-year-old franchise record for GIDPs in 2010, with Pablo Sandoval pacing the NL." Yikes...

Andres Torres: Platoon?

Throughout the playoffs, opposing managers routinely brought left-handed specialists to face leadoff hitter Andres Torres. The rationale for this move is simple. Torres, a switch hitter, is perceived as a bigger threat from the left than the right. Some numbers seem to support this notion. In 2010, Torres hit a solid .284 from the left while managing only a meager .226 from the right. In addition, 14 of his 16 home runs this year came from the left. These stats lead manager Bruce Bochy to flirt with the idea of platooning Torres with a right handed hitter such as Aaron Rowand. There are several reasons that this is a bad idea for 2011.

When looking only at 2010, Andres Torres appears to be significantly better from the left side. Interestingly enough, this was not always the case. If you remember back to 2009, Torres' offensive production came almost completely from the right side. In limited playing time, he hit a robust .338 from the right and a mere .210 from the left. While both of these numbers are small sample sizes, they show that Andres is capable of being a respectable hitter from the right side. What should we expect from Andres Torres in 2011? His 2010 peripheral stats indicate that he is due for a small resurgence as a right-handed hitter. His right-handed BABIP of .275 was below league average, especially for a man of his speed. He actually hit more line drives and fewer pop-ups from the right side. It is reasonable to expect that Andres Torres will not have a significant platoon split next year. He may be a better hitter from the left side, but he is certainly not terrible from the right.

Another essential aspect of Andres Torres' game is his speed. The Giants' projected 2011 lineup will be one of the slowest in the league. Just last year, Aubrey Huff ranked second in the stolen bases category with just seven. Cody Ross has above average speed, but he has never stolen more than ten bags a season. If the Giants fail to get a speedy shortstop such as Jason Bartlett, Torres will be the only running threat on a team that already struggles to push runs across the plate. His ability to make things happen on the bases is invaluable. For this reason, keeping him out of the lineup is simply not an option.

Torres' final and arguably most important asset is his defense. While he was snubbed of a Gold Glove this year,  he was undeniably one of the best outfielders in baseball. His amazing range was crucial when Bruce Bochy chose to surround him with two DH's, Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen. Better yet, he has the ability to play all three positions with ease. According to Ultimate Zone Rating, Andres Torres was 21.2 runs above average in the field in 2010. That number ranks him as the second best defensive player in the game, trailing only Yankees speedster Brett Gardner. Even if Torres continues to flounder while hitting from the right side, his excellent glove work should more than compensate.

Twins Win Bidding for Nishioka. Good News for Giants?

The Twins have won the bidding for Japanese middle-infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka. This could be good news for the Giants, though.

Nishioka is said to be a better fit at second base, but the Giants are looking for a guy who can play shortstop well. In 2010, Nishioka posted a slash line of .346/.423/.482, but that was in all likelihood a big fluke, as he had a BABIP of .389... Before that, his previous best was .300/.366/.463...This article by Patrick Newman of Fangraphs basically likens Nishioka to Chone Figgins and Ryan Theriot, both of whom had unimpressive campaigns in 2010. So Nishioka isn't that great...throw in the fees for bidding and signing him to a contract, and it's definitely too high of a price to pay for a relatively weak shortstop.

The good news here is that this increases the likelihood that J.J. Hardy becomes available on the trade market. Hardy is one of the best shortstop options currently available: he's one of the best defensive shortstops in the majors, with a career UZR/150 of 11.0, and his bat has great offensive upside. From 2007-2008, Hardy belted a total of 50 home runs, although he hasn't come near those numbers in the past couple of seasons. However, his Bill James projections see him hitting .263/.328/.425 next year with 16 home runs. Throw in the superb defense that he'll inevitably provide, and that is an extremely valuable shortstop. Even with his .268/.320/.394 slash line in 101 games in 2010, he managed to produce 2.4 WAR. Project that over a full season and his 2010 worth is at 3.5-4.0 WAR. But he's projected to improve upon those numbers. At this point, the Giants probably wouldn't even have to give up much to get him.

His excellent defense and significant offensive potential warrant serious consideration. A lineup of Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff, Freddy Sanchez, J.J. Hardy, Pablo Sandoval, Mark DeRosa, Andres Torres, and Cody Ross is a legitimate offense. Pair that with the incredible rotation that the Giants have, and I think they have the tools to win many games. And that's not even considering the eventual call-up of Brandon Belt.

The Great Nate Debate

Guest post by Zachary Chiang.

Everyone knows that Buster Posey is a very talented young player. Another article praising his offensive prowess, defensive instinct, and unheralded leadership would simply be redundant. His highly anticipated debut did not disappoint, and his overall performance went above and beyond expectations. In the wake of the rookie catcher's amazing season, it is important to remember that not every transition to the big leagues is quite as smooth as his. Let's take a look at one of the quiet contributors to the Giants' championship run.

At this point in his young career, Nate Schierholtz is best known for his brutal collision with the Chinese catcher in the '08 Beijing Olympics. Once thought to be the right fielder of the future, the Danville native was denied regular playing time with the big league club even after hitting .320/.363/.594 with 18 HRs in 93 games at the AAA level. While most Giants fans hold Nate's defensive skills in high regard, many seem to have varying opinions of his offensive ability. Some see him as a slap hitter with value only as a fourth outfielder, while others believe his star potential has been stunted by his limited playing time. Realistically, if Nate became more consistent, he would be a solid hitter, similar to David DeJesus.

A look at Nate's stats year by year turns up unimpressive results, but even with an abyssal line of .242/.311/.366 in 2010, there are bright spots to be picked out. Back on May 6th, he peaked out at .381/.458/.587 with a stellar 3 for 4 day. In June of '09, he hit .375 and people wanted to install him as high as third in the order. Even in his impressive '08 call up, he produced 1.2 WAR by pounding out 10 extra base hits in a mere 19-game stretch. With respect to small sample size, it is obvious that Nate is prone to streakiness. There are several months in which he hit under .200 with no sign of power whatsoever. However, it is appalling to think that the Giants could not find him regular playing time during their mediocre '07 and '08 seasons. Who knows what he could have accomplished as a regular the last three or four years?

Next year, Andres Torres and Cody Ross are locked into starting outfield roles. If Schierholtz were to land the last spot, Ross would be shifted to left as he was in the playoffs. Unfortunately, this scenario seems to be very improbable. Mark DeRosa will be back, and possibly return to left field. Aaron Rowand may have accepted a bench role this year, but it seems unlikely that he'll start the year there. Lastly, there still is the possibility of re-signing veteran leader Pat Burrell or picking up another free agent outfielder. As usual, 2011 will be an uphill battle for Nate. He must show management that he can play not only as well, but better than the veterans who will continue to block his way.

Do you have a strong opinion on Nate Schierholtz? We encourage you to comment below.

Should the Giants Re-sign Pat Burrell?

Should the Giants re-sign Pat Burrell? As of now, they have the following five players that can man the outfield:

• Cody Ross
• Andres Torres
• Aaron Rowand
• Nate Schierholtz
• Mark DeRosa

With such a crowded outfield, is there room for Burrell?

In 96 games with the Giants, he put up a .266/.364/.509 slash line, and hit 18 home runs. Among the San Francisco Giants, he had the second-highest OBP behind Aubrey Huff's .385, and his OPS+ of 132 was also second-best on the team, behind Huff's 138. The two benefits that Burrell brings are as follows:

1. Plate Discipline...Burrell's walk rate of 13.8% was easily tops among the Giants, and he and Huff were the only two Giants with double-digit walk rates. How important is walk rate? Well, consider this. The Giants ranked in the bottom ten in the majors in walk rate for 2010; in other words, they need players with plate discipline, because they are quite lacking in that category. Before they had Huff and Burrell, their offense had mighty struggles because none of their players could take a walk. Because free-swinging Bengie Molina left, and Pablo Sandoval was no longer the big bat in the middle of the lineup, the Giants were able to create a balanced cast of players (especially thanks to Burrell and Huff) that could guide them to the playoffs.

Keep this in mind: The Giants were the only team in the bottom-ten in the majors in walk rate that made it to the playoffs. Astros didn't make it. Orioles didn't make it. Royals, White Sox, Angels, Mariners, Pirates, Blue Jays, Cubs did not make it. So, what to take from this? The Giants are in need of players who can walk. And in that category, Burrell is quite adequate.

2. Power...Burrell's 18 home runs were tied for third-best on the Giants. His SLG of .509 was the best on the team, and although it's a small sample size (341 plate appearances), his ISO of .242 indicates that he has great power. In 2009, the Giants did not have a Huff. They did not have a Posey. And they did not have a Burrell. Burrell was one of the major bats in the lineup that drove the Giants' offense to a World Series title by virtue of his ability to crush the ball.

The Giants aren't desperate in this category. They've got Posey, Sandoval might rediscover his 2009 power bat, Torres has a little pop, Huff could be brought back, Uribe could be brought back. Burrell's power isn't a necessity, but it's surely nice to have.

Ah, but every rose has its thorns. Burrell does have two major perceived flaws:

1. High K rate...Burrell's strikeout rate of 26.6% was the second-worst on the team behind Eli Whiteside. And surely, his dreadful World Series in which he batted .000 and struck out 11 times in 13 at-bats, is not forgotten. If he's supposed to be a big bat in the middle of the order, the way I see it, he needs to make contact a little more often.

2. Defense...the defensive merits of Burrell are hard to get a full grasp on, merely because he hasn't played a full season in the outfield since 2008. What is a sure fact, however, is that advanced defensive metrics haven't been too kind to Burrell throughout his career. Since 2002, he's cost his teams about 40 runs on defense (based on UZR). His arm is average, however, and especially adequate for a left-fielder.

Quite lacking, however, is Burrell in his ability to cover range. In 2006-2008, his range (or lack thereof) cost the Phillies 44.5 runs (based on RngR). Having seen Burrell run, it's not hard to understand that he can't cover much range out in left field.


So what to take from all of this?

On the offensive side, I feel like Pat Burrell is a less-extreme version of Mark Reynolds. He's got power, walks a lot, and strikes out a lot.

On the defensive side, he's nothing special. The Giants, however, could work around that flaw. They could give Burrell the same treatment they did this year, taking him out for later-inning defensive improvement. Also, if he was to be used as a pinch hitter, the Giants wouldn't have to deal with his mediocre defense. That was, after all, the original intention when he was acquired. I don't think he wants to turn into Matt Stairs at the age of 34, though.

The big looming question is, how much will Burrell want? Based on his WAR, his performance with the Giants in 2010 was worth about $11MM. After seeing his bat disintegrate in the World Series, however, I have lost confidence in the belief that he's back to being an impact bat.

I think the Giants should just play it safe. I think they should give Burrell a small contract (like Huff's 1yr/$3MM deal) to be a pinch-hitter and occasional left-fielder (an outfield reserve). And if all goes well, he'll force himself into a starting outfield spot as he did in 2010. If he's not willing to take such a small contract, he's not worth it. He's too risky at this point. I wouldn't want to see that World Series Pat Burrell struggle at the plate day after day in 2011 and receive ten million dollars for those services. That risk is just too eminent.

After all, how did the Giants enjoy so much success in 2010? The bargain contracts that outweighed their horrible contracts. Torres, Huff, Posey, Bumgarner etc. all played top-notch baseball on cheap contracts. That's how this team is going to need to build success around Rowand's 5yr/$60MM contract and Zito's 7yr/$126MM contract.

Yes, this is rather cruel. Pat the Bat did a lot to help the Giants bring home their first-ever World Series title since moving to San Francisco. But in order to succeed, they need to minimize risk. And I see Burrell as a mighty risk, given his bat's propensity for rapid-aging.

Andrew Baggarly - "Bringing back Pat Burrell is a matter the Giants are discussing right now. I know Bochy loves Burrell’s clubhouse presence, but he’d likely be in a reserve role."

Giants Decline Renteria's Option

The Giants officially declined Edgar Renteria's $10.5 million option today. They'll pay him a $500K buyout.

This comes as no surprise...yes,  he won the World Series MVP. But he's plagued with injuries, his legs are not what they used to be (he did steal 34 bases back in 2003), he only managed to hit .259 for the Giants with 8 home runs over 2009 and 2010, and he hasn't been anything special.

He had a few clutch moments with the Giants that were critical. The few that stick out in my mind:

• August 30, 2009 grand slam against the Colorado Rockies (off of Rafael Betancourt)
• April 9, 2010 game-tying homer against the Atlanta Braves (off of Billy Wagner)
• And of course, November 1, 2010 three-run homer against the Texas Rangers (off of Cliff Lee)

He's left his mark in San Francisco Giants franchise history. I'm sure his time as a Giants shortstop is over, though. There is no better time to retire than this year, after winning the World Series MVP.

In other news...Pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in 100 days.

Lastly...Many Giants are nominated for TYIB (This Year in Baseball) Awards.

• Buster Posey is nominated for the TYIB Rookie of the Year Award.
• Brian Wilson is nominated for the TYIB Closer of the Year Award.
• Pat Burrell is nominated for the TYIB X-Factor Player of the Year Award. 
• Andres Torres is not nominated for the TYIB Breakout Player of the Year Award. What gives?
• Brian Sabean is nominated for the TYIB Executive of the Year Award. 
• Bruce Bochy is nominated for the TYIB Manager of the Year Award. 
• Lastly, Cody Ross, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Brian Wilson are all nominees for the TYIB Postseason MVP Award. 

Also...Five Giants plays are nominated for the TYIB Postseason Moment of the Year:

• Lincecum's 14-K NLDS Game One
• Posey's play at the plate in NLCS Game Four
• Renteria's three-run homer against the Rangers in WS Game Five
• Wilson's strikeout of Ryan Howard to send the Giants to the WS 
• And..Juan Uribe's go-ahead shot in Game Six of the NLCS

You can vote for the TYIB Awards here.

Blood, Sweat, and Torture

Poster by Jason Wong

Thanks again to Jason Wong.