Giants Lose Opener in LA: 4-2

The Giants lost the first game of a three game series in Los Angeles thanks to a poor pitching effort by Barry Zito: 4 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 5 K; with each game it is becoming more evident that, for the Giants -- a team built around their rotation -- to succeed, their starters need to perform. Four innings out of any starter just isn't going to work..Zito had some good stuff working on Friday, but his problem was ultimately is his control (or lack thereof). In the fourth inning, with the game tied 2-2, Zito began by walking two consecutive batters, Matt Kemp and Casey Blake. Four batters later, Chad Billingsley was up with the bases loaded (the game still tied), and hit a liner to right field. Jose Guillen appeared to be ready to make a shoestring catch, but couldn't come up with the ball. It's in games like these that his lack of defensive prowess really hurts the Giants. Any other Giants right fielder -- Schierholtz, Huff, Torres, Ross -- could have made that catch. 


WPA (Win Probability Added) is a baseball statistic which attempts to measure a player's contribution to a win by figuring the factor by which each specific play made by that player has altered the outcome of a game. Guillen, of all the Giants, had the worst WPA in the game (-.107), lowering their chances of winning by 10.7% simply based on the night he had at the plate, going 0 for 4 and stranding four runners. This, of course, doesn't take into account the catch he failed to make, which turned out to be the difference in the game. Pitching and defense go hand in hand -- in order for good pitching to function, their needs to be a defense capable of supporting the pitcher; with Guillen in right field, there's little range being covered. Lastly, he should not be batting fifth in the lineup, especially if that means Posey, one of the Giants' most consistent hitters, is batting sixth. 


The Giants' offense, overall, failed to produce on Friday. It's understandable, because they were facing a good pitcher in Chad Billingsley, but they got just two hits...they need to get used to facing good pitching -- they'll see two more good pitchers this series: Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda. 


Notes:

• The Giants' relievers put together a nice little performance: Ray, Casilla, and Affeldt combined for a line of 4 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB. 
• Henry Schulman made a good point a few days ago about what the Giants need to do to make the playoffs: 

"Well, a 20-11 finish would get them to 92-70, pretty much assuring they'd be in. To do that, they have to have another month like their 20-8 July. It won't be easy for myriad reasons. They have seven left San Diego, including four down south. After the Rockies series, they embark on a 10-game trip to Los Angeles, Arizona and the aforementioned series in San Diego. The Giants are 10-13 on the road against the West this year. Capish?"

•  The Padres have lost their eighth game in a row, after previously not having lost more than three games in a row this season. They are really struggling. They have managed to score just 19 runs over that eight-game span, averaging a dismal 2.4 runs scored per game. Their pitching -- arguably the best in the majors -- has also been struggling. They've given up 45 runs over the past eight games, averaging 5.6 runs allowed per game. Here's where the Giants can take advantage. At this point, it would be easier (and much, much, more fun) to seize a playoff spot from a team that is quickly crumbling to pieces. 
• On a related note, the Giants now, technically speaking, are as close to winning the NL West as they are to winning the NL Wild Card: they are 3.0 GB of the Padres for the division title, and 3.0 GB of the Phillies for the Wild Card lead. 

Tomorrow: Ted Lilly will pitch against Matt Cain. Aubrey Huff should get the day off (3 for 25 in his career against Lilly), and Freddy Sanchez could have a nice day at the plate (8 for 23, .348 in his career against Lilly). Juan Uribe is 4 for 13 with 2 HR in his career against Lilly. Overall, though, the Giants don't have great numbers against him. Matt Cain does not have good numbers against the Dodgers, largely thanks to Andre Ethier, who is 18 for 35 (.514) in his career against Matt Cain.