- As of 1/17/2010, the Giants are projected by the Hardball Times to lead the majors with 96 wins.
- According to a tweet from Buster Olney, the Giants could be a possibility to sign Albert Pujols in 2011. Aaron Rowand and Barry Zito will still be on the books next year, and the Giants will have two first basemen in Brandon Belt (assuming he lives up to the hype) and Aubrey Huff (although he'll move to OF if Belt takes over first). I just don't really see Pujols in a Giants uni'...
- Splashing Pumpkins participated with other blogs in the MLBBlogBuzz in voting on Power Rankings. Check out the final power rankings for 2011. The Giants ranked 5th.
- If you're into sabermetrics and enjoyed the FIP video I posted earlier, Bradley Woodrum made another installment -- about LOB%.
- Dr. B of When the Giants Come to Town has released his 2011 Top 50 Giants Prospects list.
- Happy 26th Birthday Emmanuel Burriss!
Showing posts with label Aubrey Huff. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aubrey Huff. Show all posts
Monday, January 17, 2011
Notes: Albert Pujols, Power Rankings, Prospects
Sunday, January 16, 2011
The San Francisco Giants and Home Runs
As a baseball blogger, I read dozens of baseball articles each day. I'm fascinated and influenced by the myriads of brilliant pieces out there. A while ago, I ran into this post on Athletics Nation, examining the A's home runs using Hit Tracker Online. I've been meaning to look at the Giants' home runs for quite some time, but I would be remiss if I didn't first acknowledge the Athletics Nation post that influenced this. Anyway, here goes...
I love Hit Tracker Online. It shows the true distances of home runs, the speed off the bat, the date, the ballpark, the pitcher, the hitter, the teams, and a link to the Top Plays Archive, where a video of the home run can be found. To put it simply, it's awesome.
Without further ado, some notes on the Giants 2010 home runs...
I love Hit Tracker Online. It shows the true distances of home runs, the speed off the bat, the date, the ballpark, the pitcher, the hitter, the teams, and a link to the Top Plays Archive, where a video of the home run can be found. To put it simply, it's awesome.
Without further ado, some notes on the Giants 2010 home runs...
- The longest home run of the year...Andres Torres off of Rodrigo Lopez on July 22, 2010, in Arizona. This one had a true distance of 450 ft. I love that Torres has the Giants' longest home run of the year. Not Pat Burrell. Not Pablo Sandoval. Not Aubrey Huff. The speedy guy, whose power nobody seems to trust. Yet, over the past two seasons, in 740 PAs, he's posted an ISO of .223...that's legitimate power. And he swings the heaviest bat on the team. Literally. I also love what Kruk says after this home run..."That's up where Barry Bonds used to hit 'em."
- The second, third, and fourth longest home runs of the year...courtesy of Pablo Sandoval. He may not have had a great season in terms of power, but when he got a hold of 'em, he hit 'em deep. And these were spread throughout the season....One was in April, one came in June, and one came in August.
- Home run with the fastest speed off the bat...Aubrey Huff off of Chris Narveson at Miller Park. 113.4 MPH off the bat.
- Home run with the highest apex...Andres Torres off of Carlos Villanueva at Miller Park. Apex of 134 feet. (Gotta love that four-game sweep at Miller Park...)
- The Giants had two inside-the-parkers...Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff. "That's right Mr. Huff. You hit home runs here, you gotta earn 'em."
- Some other great home runs from 2010, just because...Juan Uribe's HR in World Series Game One. Juan Uribe's HR in NLCS Game Six. Juan Uribe's HR off of Jonathan Broxton. Cody Ross' home runs in NLCS Game One: first and second. Pat Burrell's grand slam (his second HR of that game). Juan Uribe's grand slam (his second HR of that inning). Oh yeah, and I love this Huff home run, for whatever reason. Lastly, of course, Edgar Renteria's HR in World Series Game Five.
- One of my favorite things in baseball is the walkoff home run. I love walkoff home runs. Something about a player being able to end the game with one swing of the bat. Something about the brief period of time in which you can watch the ball sail through the air, awaiting its descent into the stands. Something about the way in which the player who hits the home run pauses for a second to gaze at the beautiful work he's done. I love them. I'm very saddened by the fact that the Giants went the entire season without a walkoff home run....but this one from 2009 was pretty awesome.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Notes: Wiffle Ball, Injuries, Promotional Schedule
- Jeff Zimmerman looked at the payroll amounts tied up in injured players in 2010. The Giants spent $12.3MM on players on the DL, good (or bad?) for 12.5% of their payroll, a fairly average mark.
- The Giants released their 2011 promotional schedule, and there's some really good stuff there if I do say so myself: World Series Ring Keychain, Buster Posey Pin, World Series Replica Trophy, World Champions Cap, Willie Mays Statue Replica, Tim Lincecum/Cody Ross/Buster Posey/Aubrey Huff bobbleheads, Madison Bumgarner T-Shirt, etc. My favorite though: Belt Buckle. I presume this is a Brandon Belt reference...
- If you have a Twitter account, you should follow Splashing Pumpkins so that you can get instant updates of posts and read my terribly unfunny puns.
- At this quiet time in the Giants offseason, this has been one of the biggest pieces of news recently: Dan Szymborski wrote an article for ESPN insider about the Giants' obstacles of repeating (subscription req'd). If you don't have an insider account like me, you should read the post about it by Otis Anderson of Bay City Ball, who does a good job of explaining it.
- 32 days till pitchers and catchers report!
- This wiffle-ball pitcher is nasty. I just have to post this here. (h/t Off Base Percentage)
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Notes: Peter Gammons, FIP, Prospects, Aubrey Huff
A fresh batch of morning notes for you...
- Bay City Ball has begun ranking the Giants' top 15 prospects. Highly recommended.
- This video is already starting to go viral within the baseball-nerd world, and rightfully so. An explanation of FIP, courtesy of DRaysBay.
- Another gem, from a few days ago: Peter Gammon's Five Best Pocket Tweets.
- While we're on this note, if you don't regularly visit Notgraphs, you should.
- Forgot to mention this, but yesterday, January 10, was the anniversary of the Giants' one-year $3MM deal with Aubrey Huff. What a great day in Giants history...
Monday, January 3, 2011
A Distant Third Place?
In a recent ESPN post looking at the 2011 season, Rob Neyer wrote the following:
In my personal opinion, it is absolutely essential for a professional sports writer to back up his or her claims with significant statistical evidence. I am all for expressing radical opinions, but when I read ludicrous conclusions based on cherry-picked numbers, or in this case, no numbers at all, it simply ticks me off.
It is reasonable to believe that the Giants will miss the playoffs next year. A third place finish is also within the realm of possibility. But saying that they won't be competitive? Give me a break.
As Neyer points out, the Diamondbacks and the Padres are unlikely to be contenders in the NL West. While it seems that both teams could compete in the near future, we'll save that argument for another day. Eliminating those two leaves the Dodgers and the Rockies, who finished with 83 and 80 wins respectively. With this in mind, it's hard to imagine both teams leaving the Giants in the dust as predicted. Neyer cites various flaws with San Francisco's roster, but clearly, the same circumstances apply to both Los Angeles and Colorado as well.
First is the argument of "uncertainty" concerning rookies Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. While each has their own small blemishes, I can not find any clear signs pointing towards future struggles. Posey's below-average walk rate (6.8%) and Bumgarner's mediocre K/9 (6.97) are hardly worth mentioning. To me, a pair of sophomore slumps for these young stars seems possible, but not probable. On the contrary, as a Dodger fan, I would be worried about Matt Kemp's struggles hitting the fastball, as well as Jonathan Broxton's second half implosion. Similarly, Rockies fans should be concerned about Carlos Gonzalez's unsustainable .384 BABIP and Jhoulys Chacin's high walk tendencies.
Next, we get to the regression dispute. Is it really fair to say that Aubrey Huff will bring the Giants down when rival lineups feature aging veterans Todd Helton and Casey Blake? And while Andres Torres' breakout season seems like an anomaly, the attack on Jonathan Sanchez seems illogical. Luck is a factor throughout the game of baseball, and thus, every team has at least one pitcher that outperforms their peripherals, some more than others. Jon Garland (3.47 ERA, 4.35 xFIP) and Ubaldo Jimenez (2.88 ERA, 3.73 xFIP) are excellent examples of this.
Lastly is the trifle issue of the Giants changing shortstops. While Juan Uribe flashes more power and defensive prowess, Miguel Tejada brings durability and contact abilities to the table. The gap between these two is marginal compared to that of Manny Ramirez and an average left fielder. And while the Rockies did not lose any key players this offseason, they did part with solid contributors Miguel Olivo and Clint Barmes, who combined for 3.6 WAR in 2010.
I believe many will agree with me when I say that writers must look at the bigger picture if they wish to write a relevant article. It is obvious that the success of the Giants will be highly dependent on that of the Dodgers and the Rockies. When Rob Neyer chose to only examine the inadequacies of the Giants through unspecific generalizations, he failed to do the same for their main competition, thus destroying the foundations of his argument.
Which team will be the most surprising in 2011?
There's going to be a great deal of change in the National League West.
I don't expect the Diamondbacks' rebuilding efforts to pay off immediately and the Padres are obviously going to miss Adrian Gonzalez terribly, but it's hard to figure where everyone else ends up.
Still, the Giants might surprise a lot of people by dropping from world champions to third place, and perhaps even a not particularly competitive third place. In 2010, almost everything that could have gone well for them did go well, with a number of Giants enjoying surprisingly good seasons. If there's reason for optimism, it's tied almost solely to the assumption that Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner will continue to thrive in their first full seasons. Will that be enough to balance the presumed regressions of Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres and Jonathan Sanchez, along with the departure of Juan Uribe (who's been replaced by Miguel Tejada)?
We'll know in eight or nine months.
In my personal opinion, it is absolutely essential for a professional sports writer to back up his or her claims with significant statistical evidence. I am all for expressing radical opinions, but when I read ludicrous conclusions based on cherry-picked numbers, or in this case, no numbers at all, it simply ticks me off.
It is reasonable to believe that the Giants will miss the playoffs next year. A third place finish is also within the realm of possibility. But saying that they won't be competitive? Give me a break.
As Neyer points out, the Diamondbacks and the Padres are unlikely to be contenders in the NL West. While it seems that both teams could compete in the near future, we'll save that argument for another day. Eliminating those two leaves the Dodgers and the Rockies, who finished with 83 and 80 wins respectively. With this in mind, it's hard to imagine both teams leaving the Giants in the dust as predicted. Neyer cites various flaws with San Francisco's roster, but clearly, the same circumstances apply to both Los Angeles and Colorado as well.
First is the argument of "uncertainty" concerning rookies Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. While each has their own small blemishes, I can not find any clear signs pointing towards future struggles. Posey's below-average walk rate (6.8%) and Bumgarner's mediocre K/9 (6.97) are hardly worth mentioning. To me, a pair of sophomore slumps for these young stars seems possible, but not probable. On the contrary, as a Dodger fan, I would be worried about Matt Kemp's struggles hitting the fastball, as well as Jonathan Broxton's second half implosion. Similarly, Rockies fans should be concerned about Carlos Gonzalez's unsustainable .384 BABIP and Jhoulys Chacin's high walk tendencies.
Next, we get to the regression dispute. Is it really fair to say that Aubrey Huff will bring the Giants down when rival lineups feature aging veterans Todd Helton and Casey Blake? And while Andres Torres' breakout season seems like an anomaly, the attack on Jonathan Sanchez seems illogical. Luck is a factor throughout the game of baseball, and thus, every team has at least one pitcher that outperforms their peripherals, some more than others. Jon Garland (3.47 ERA, 4.35 xFIP) and Ubaldo Jimenez (2.88 ERA, 3.73 xFIP) are excellent examples of this.
Lastly is the trifle issue of the Giants changing shortstops. While Juan Uribe flashes more power and defensive prowess, Miguel Tejada brings durability and contact abilities to the table. The gap between these two is marginal compared to that of Manny Ramirez and an average left fielder. And while the Rockies did not lose any key players this offseason, they did part with solid contributors Miguel Olivo and Clint Barmes, who combined for 3.6 WAR in 2010.
I believe many will agree with me when I say that writers must look at the bigger picture if they wish to write a relevant article. It is obvious that the success of the Giants will be highly dependent on that of the Dodgers and the Rockies. When Rob Neyer chose to only examine the inadequacies of the Giants through unspecific generalizations, he failed to do the same for their main competition, thus destroying the foundations of his argument.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Looking Back at the 2010 Giants Projections
To say that 2010 was a season full of surprises would be an understatement: Pablo Sandoval and Tim Lincecum had disappointing sesasons; Mark DeRosa was injured after playing in only 26 games; Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff played far beyond expectations, putting up all-star caliber numbers; and Buster Posey had no trouble whatsoever in adjusting to the majors, becoming an elite catcher from day one (his debut). Lastly, the Giants picked up some phenomenal players on the way, namely Cody Ross, Javier Lopez, and Pat Burrell. Now that we've looked at (and made) projections for the 2011 season, I thought it'd be fun to take a look back at how certain Giants were expected to perform in 2010 (and compare it to their actual performance). This will give context to how surprising 2010 really was. For the purposes of this, I'll use ZiPS projections, one of the most well-respected projection systems out there. If you want to take a look at the 2010 ZiPS projections, they are available here.
Pablo Sandoval
Projected - .320/.368/.516; OPS+ 130
Actual - .268/.323/.409; OPS+ 95
Aubrey Huff
Projected - .270/.330/.448; OPS+ 102
Actual - .290/.385/.506; OPS+ 138
Aaron Rowand
Projected - .273/.335/.431; OPS+ 100
Actual - .230/.281/.378; OPS+ 75
Buster Posey
Projected - .263/.343/.398; OPS+ 95
Actual - .305/.357/.505; OPS+ 129
Freddy Sanchez
Projected - .296/.331/.414; OPS+ 95
Actual - .292/.342/.397; OPS+ 98
Edgar Renteria
Projected - .280/.336/.388; OPS+ 90
Actual - .276/.332/.374; OPS+ 90
Juan Uribe
Projected - .269/.311/.442; OPS+ 95
Actual - .248/.310/.440; OPS+ 99
Andres Torres
Projected - .254/.315/.397; OPS+ 86
Actual - .268/.343/.479; OPS+ 119
As can be seen from these comparisons, which look at only eight of the Giants, there were many surprises. Torres, Huff, and Posey far exceeded expectations; on the other hand, Rowand and Sandoval far underperformed. All in all, the Giants ended up playing much better than expected, taking home a World Series trophy with an offense that, before the season began, was the subject of ample criticism.
Pablo Sandoval
Projected - .320/.368/.516; OPS+ 130
Actual - .268/.323/.409; OPS+ 95
Aubrey Huff
Projected - .270/.330/.448; OPS+ 102
Actual - .290/.385/.506; OPS+ 138
Aaron Rowand
Projected - .273/.335/.431; OPS+ 100
Actual - .230/.281/.378; OPS+ 75
Projected - .263/.343/.398; OPS+ 95
Actual - .305/.357/.505; OPS+ 129
Projected - .296/.331/.414; OPS+ 95
Actual - .292/.342/.397; OPS+ 98
Projected - .280/.336/.388; OPS+ 90
Actual - .276/.332/.374; OPS+ 90
Juan Uribe
Projected - .269/.311/.442; OPS+ 95
Actual - .248/.310/.440; OPS+ 99
Andres Torres
Projected - .254/.315/.397; OPS+ 86
Actual - .268/.343/.479; OPS+ 119
As can be seen from these comparisons, which look at only eight of the Giants, there were many surprises. Torres, Huff, and Posey far exceeded expectations; on the other hand, Rowand and Sandoval far underperformed. All in all, the Giants ended up playing much better than expected, taking home a World Series trophy with an offense that, before the season began, was the subject of ample criticism.
Monday, December 27, 2010
2011 Giants Hitting Projections
So far, Fangraphs has posted the Bill James projections and the Fans projections. I thought it'd be fun to project the slash lines and home run numbers of the Giants' (presumable) starting eight (along with our personal commentary on our projections). I'd love to hear input from readers...post your own projections in the comments, or simply gives us your take on our projections...
We're Giants fans, so our projections are probably biased, but whatever.
Buster Posey:
Aubrey Huff:
Freddy Sanchez:
Pablo Sandoval:
Miguel Tejada:
Pat Burrell:
Andres Torres:
Cody Ross:
Looking at the projections, it seems the Giants have five guys with decent potential to hit 20 HRs...they don't have any sluggers, but they have nice power throughout the lineup. It's certainly enough offense to support that stellar rotation (which we'll project some time in the near future).
We're Giants fans, so our projections are probably biased, but whatever.
Buster Posey:
- Bill James - .308/.370/.506; 21 HRs
- Fans - .304/.374/.483; 20 HRs
- Julian Levine - .310/.380/.500; 25 HRs...I don't expect much to change with Posey, with the exception of an improved walk rate.
- Zachary Chiang - .290/.360/.490; 20 HRs...More patience, less power. Might tire down the stretch.
Aubrey Huff:
- Bill James - .269/.348/.453; 19 HRs
- Fans - .282/.358/.456; 21 HRs
- Julian Levine - .280/.350/.460; 18 HRs...I expect a natural decline in Huff's numbers from his stellar 2009 campaign, but I think he'll remain solid. He won't be a major home run threat, especially playing in AT&T Park, and his walk rate will probably decline from his peak '09 season, but he'll still be an impact bat in the heart of the lineup.
- Zachary Chiang - .275/.360/.460; 20 HRs...Basically a repeat of last year, minus a scorching July.
Freddy Sanchez:
- Bill James - .285/.330/.401; 8 HRs
- Fans - .290/.336/.385; 6 HRs
- Julian Levine - .290/.340/.400; 7 HRs...I don't really expect Sanchez's numbers to change much at all from his '09 numbers. Rather, I expect his consistency to improve. He had a hot August that raised his numbers a bit, after he had had a prolonged slump; I expect fewer up's and down's in 2010.
- Zachary Chiang - .295/.340/.400; 10 HRs..Hoping he can improve on a career best walk rate.
Pablo Sandoval:
- Bill James - .308/.363/.492; 18 HRs
- Fans - .295/.345/.476; 19 HRs
- Julian Levine - .310/.375/.510; 20 HRs...Sandoval's a polarizing figure. Some say he'll play like he did in '10, which was rather mediocre and disappointing; others say he'll play like he did in '09 -- all-star caliber hitting. I lean towards the optimistic side. I think he'll hit for a high average with good power. AT&T Park will definitely take a few home runs away from him, so I expect a lot of doubles -- like 40-50.
- Zachary Chiang - .290/.330/.450; 20 HRs...Bounces back to somewhere between '09 and '10.
Miguel Tejada:
- Bill James -.279/.324/.415; 17 HRs
- Fans - .272/.311/.389; 13 HRs
- Julian Levine - .280/.320/.405; 12 HRs...low walk rate, doubles power, decent average.
- Zachary Chiang - .275/.320/.400; 15 HRs...Amazing comeback isn't that likely. Solid, if anything.
Pat Burrell:
- Bill James - .237/.351/.443; 20 HRs
- Fans - .255/.350/.440; 19 HRs
- Julian Levine - .250/.350/.440; 17 HRs...exceptional walk rate, good power.
- Zachary Chiang - .240/.320/.450; 20 HRs...Not much confidence after weak postseason performance.
Andres Torres:
- Bill James - .271/.340/.440; 14 HRs
- Fans - .270/.343/.420; 12 HRs
- Julian Levine - .270/.340/.460; 15 HRs..I'm a believer in Torres. In 740 PAs in 2009 and 2010, he posted an ISO of .223...I don't think my projected ISO of .190 is extremely optimistic.
- Zachary Chiang - .260/.330/.420; 10 HRs..A little bit low, but I think some pitchers will figure him out.
Cody Ross:
- Bill James - .265/.321/.444; 18 HRs
- Fans - .274/.335/.446; 19 HRs
- Julian Levine - .270/.330/.460; 20 HRs...Okay, I got a little crazy here. But I don't know. I feel like he has some legitimate power, and it will just come flowing out in 2010. Lots of doubles, and lots of home runs (yes, I just called 20 home runs "lots of home runs". Gee, I miss Barry Bonds...) I think the fact that he has decent speed will help give a little boost to his power numbers, as he'll stretch several singles into doubles.
- Zachary Chiang - .275/.320/.430; 15 HRs...Will be hard for him to meet unrealistic expectations.
Looking at the projections, it seems the Giants have five guys with decent potential to hit 20 HRs...they don't have any sluggers, but they have nice power throughout the lineup. It's certainly enough offense to support that stellar rotation (which we'll project some time in the near future).
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Pat the BBat [sic]
I recently got a subscription to MLB.TV, and as such, watched the first game of the World Series once more. What I mostly got out of it was a refreshed confidence in Pat Burrell. Burrell didn't do much in the game, striking out thrice (yes, I just said 'thrice') in three at-bats; yet, I feel as though he played a crucial role in helping the Giants win the game. The one thing he did in that game: draw a walk.
It wasn't just any walk, though; it was a walk from Cliff Lee. Coming into the at-bat, Lee had walked just one hitter in the postseason. In fact, during the entire season, Lee allowed a mere 18 walks for a sparkling BB/9 of 0.76...
So Burrell comes to the plate in the bottom of the fifth inning with two outs, and the game at a close 3-2. If he were to strike out then and there, well, the game would remain tight, and who knows what would've happened? Lee would've exited the inning without much damage -- just an RBI double to Freddy Sanchez -- and it would have been torturous. But Burrell didn't strike out. He worked the count, something that's very difficult to do against the almighty Cliff Lee. He worked the count full, then he drew a walk. Not only did he get several pitches out of Lee (I believe the best way to attack Lee is to raise his pitch count as soon as possible), but he extended the inning. And guess who came up after him? The NLCS MVP. I don't like to place importance on the intangibles, but I believe this momentum was crucial. If you're Lee, you had a chance to get out of the inning, and failed. Not only did you fail, but you wasted eight (or was it seven?) pitches in doing so. And now, as you're losing the first game of the World Series by a score of 3-2, you must face Cody Ross, the NLCS MVP, with two runners on. Oh yeah, and in the midst of your tense battle with Pat Burrell, your manager sent Darren O'Day to go warm up, implying that he doesn't completely trust that you can get out of the inning. Well, maybe, just maybe, that walk gave the Giants huge momentum.
Because after that walk, Ross and Aubrey Huff hit RBI singles, knocking Lee out of the game. Then O'Day came in to relieve him, and gave up a three-run homer to Juan Uribe.
Had Burrell struck out to end the inning, the Giants would be winning 3-2. Instead, they finished the inning with an 8-2 lead, and more importantly, Cliff Lee sulking on the bench. Thinking about this, I'm able to ignore the fact that he was atrocious overall in the World Series, and had a WPA of -9.5% for Game One. That walk just meant more to me than the numbers, even though it's seemingly illogical.
I'm admittedly biased because I have a love affair with walks. Perhaps it's because I've been so deprived of walks with players like Bengie Molina, while the team across the bay has high-walk players like Daric Barton (who had the highest walk rate in the majors), and now Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui. But I digress.
That walk, in spite of all of the other at-bats Burrell had in the World Series -- which, I'll admit, were difficult to watch -- makes me happy to have Burrell returning to San Francisco.
Walks are highly critical yet underappreciated. They don't carry the same excitement as a hit, but they're still invaluable. For perspective: the Giants had the tenth-lowest walk rate in the majors in 2010. Of the nine teams with worse walk rates than the Giants, zero made the playoffs. Now, of course, correlation does not imply causation. But certainly, it means something, that not one of the nine teams with the worst walk rates in the majors made the playoffs.
In terms of walks, Huff and Burrell carried the Giants, with respective rates of 12.4% and 13.8%. Huff's rate will probably decline, as it was his first-ever 10+% walk rate, so Burrell (career 14.3% walk rate) will need to carry the team in that aspect.
I love that he walks so much, as it makes him an asset to the team. (In fact, I love it so much, that I'm willing to ignore the fact that he has more World Series rings than hits.) Then, I think about the fact that he's coming back on a one-year $1MM deal without any incentives. And I want to construct brilliant prose in honor of Pat the Bat's greatness...perhaps a take-off on the Cat in the Hat. It's just begging to be written. Ah, but I'm not that creative. So I'll just leave this picture here, for all to admire.
It wasn't just any walk, though; it was a walk from Cliff Lee. Coming into the at-bat, Lee had walked just one hitter in the postseason. In fact, during the entire season, Lee allowed a mere 18 walks for a sparkling BB/9 of 0.76...
So Burrell comes to the plate in the bottom of the fifth inning with two outs, and the game at a close 3-2. If he were to strike out then and there, well, the game would remain tight, and who knows what would've happened? Lee would've exited the inning without much damage -- just an RBI double to Freddy Sanchez -- and it would have been torturous. But Burrell didn't strike out. He worked the count, something that's very difficult to do against the almighty Cliff Lee. He worked the count full, then he drew a walk. Not only did he get several pitches out of Lee (I believe the best way to attack Lee is to raise his pitch count as soon as possible), but he extended the inning. And guess who came up after him? The NLCS MVP. I don't like to place importance on the intangibles, but I believe this momentum was crucial. If you're Lee, you had a chance to get out of the inning, and failed. Not only did you fail, but you wasted eight (or was it seven?) pitches in doing so. And now, as you're losing the first game of the World Series by a score of 3-2, you must face Cody Ross, the NLCS MVP, with two runners on. Oh yeah, and in the midst of your tense battle with Pat Burrell, your manager sent Darren O'Day to go warm up, implying that he doesn't completely trust that you can get out of the inning. Well, maybe, just maybe, that walk gave the Giants huge momentum.
Because after that walk, Ross and Aubrey Huff hit RBI singles, knocking Lee out of the game. Then O'Day came in to relieve him, and gave up a three-run homer to Juan Uribe.
Had Burrell struck out to end the inning, the Giants would be winning 3-2. Instead, they finished the inning with an 8-2 lead, and more importantly, Cliff Lee sulking on the bench. Thinking about this, I'm able to ignore the fact that he was atrocious overall in the World Series, and had a WPA of -9.5% for Game One. That walk just meant more to me than the numbers, even though it's seemingly illogical.
I'm admittedly biased because I have a love affair with walks. Perhaps it's because I've been so deprived of walks with players like Bengie Molina, while the team across the bay has high-walk players like Daric Barton (who had the highest walk rate in the majors), and now Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui. But I digress.
That walk, in spite of all of the other at-bats Burrell had in the World Series -- which, I'll admit, were difficult to watch -- makes me happy to have Burrell returning to San Francisco.
Walks are highly critical yet underappreciated. They don't carry the same excitement as a hit, but they're still invaluable. For perspective: the Giants had the tenth-lowest walk rate in the majors in 2010. Of the nine teams with worse walk rates than the Giants, zero made the playoffs. Now, of course, correlation does not imply causation. But certainly, it means something, that not one of the nine teams with the worst walk rates in the majors made the playoffs.
In terms of walks, Huff and Burrell carried the Giants, with respective rates of 12.4% and 13.8%. Huff's rate will probably decline, as it was his first-ever 10+% walk rate, so Burrell (career 14.3% walk rate) will need to carry the team in that aspect.
I love that he walks so much, as it makes him an asset to the team. (In fact, I love it so much, that I'm willing to ignore the fact that he has more World Series rings than hits.) Then, I think about the fact that he's coming back on a one-year $1MM deal without any incentives. And I want to construct brilliant prose in honor of Pat the Bat's greatness...perhaps a take-off on the Cat in the Hat. It's just begging to be written. Ah, but I'm not that creative. So I'll just leave this picture here, for all to admire.
Monday, December 20, 2010
Saturday, December 18, 2010
The Giants and Baserunning
I recently got the 2011 Bill James Handbook (which I highly recommend, by the way), and one of the sections in the book is about 2010 Major League Baserunning. I was not surprised at all to find that the Giants were the second-worst baserunning team in the majors -- behind only the Kansas City Royals.
For context -- an average major leaguer went from first to third on a single 28% of the time; a very good baserunner will go from first to third on a single about 38% of the time; and a very slow runner will do it about 18% of the time.
The Giants went from first to third on a single 82 times in 297 chances for a rate of 27.6%...so they were one base below average.
Now, an average major league player scored from second on a single 58% of the time; a very good baserunner will score from second on a single around 70% of the time; and a very slow runner will score from second around 41% of the time.
The Giants scored from second on a single 100 times in 170 chances for a rate of 58.8%...so they were one base above average.
Lastly, an average major leaguer will score from first on a double 44% of the time; 62% is very good, 27% is very poor.
The Giants scored from first on a double 31 times in 84 chances for a rate of 36.9%...about six bases below average.
A player is credited with a base taken when they advance on a passed ball, a wild pitch, a sac fly, a defensive indifference, or a balk. The Giants had 167 bases taken, which was about six bases below average.
The Giants, meanwhile, were thrown out advancing 25 times -- tied for tenth-best in the majors, and were doubled off 17 times -- tied for the worst mark of any major league team.
In average, a player grounds into a double play (in a double play opportunity) 11% of the time. The Giants grounded into a major-league worst 157 double plays. They had 1135 GIDP opportunities, so that rate comes to about 13.8%, or 32 double plays below average.
Baserunning Gain comprises all of these statistics...it is "the total of all the types of extra baserunning advances minus the (triple) penalty for all the BR Outs compared with what would be expected based on the MLB averages"....BR Outs "include the sum of Outs Advancing, Doubled Offs, and when a runner is tagged out on the bases when another runner moves up on a Wild Pitch, Passed Ball, or scores on a Sacrifice Fly."
The Giants had 43 BR Outs and their BR Gain of -42 was the fifth-worst mark in the majors.
Meanwhile, the Giants had an SB Gain of -9, the absolute worst in the majors. SB Gain is based on the fact that stolen base attempts must be successful greater than about two thirds of the time to have a positive result on the number of runs scored. It is therefore "the number of bases stolen minus two times the number of caught stealing (SB Gain = SB - 2CS)." The Giants stole 53 bases (26 of which were stolen by Andres Torres), and were caught stealing 31 times, so that equates to 53-62 which is equal to -9.
The Giants had an overall net gain (SB Gain + BR Gain) of -51, trailing only the Kansas City Royals as the worst baserunning team.
Some stand-out individual Giants net gains:
- Andres Torres +28
- Nate Schierholtz +13
- Pablo Sandoval -27
- Aubrey Huff +8
- Edgar Renteria, Cody Ross (with Marlins and Giants), and Buster Posey +1
- Bengie Molina (with Giants and Rangers) -13
- Jose Guillen (with Royals and Giants) -25
It seems as though the Giants have moved in the wrong direction in fixing their baserunning problem, as Miguel Tejada had a net gain of -5, a bit worse than Rent's mark of +1. Jason Bartlett, a shortstop that I had wanted the Giants to go after, had a net gain of +21, markedly better.
Again, if you like obscure yet important statistics like this, I highly recommend that you get the Bill James 2011 Handbook.
Again, if you like obscure yet important statistics like this, I highly recommend that you get the Bill James 2011 Handbook.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
More Offseason Talk....
Andrew Baggarly, San Jose Mercury News beat-writer notes:
I suppose it's a good thing that Tejada was acquired to be a starting shortstop (rather than a backup plan at third base), in that it actually somewhat justified his $6.5MM contract. But this means the Giants are still lacking depth at short, and not seeking to fix that with a Hardy, Scutaro, or a Bartlett. Unless of course, they tender Mike Fontenot a contract. I guess I could see him as a backup shortstop. He produced negative WAR with the Giants in 2010, and I've never been too fond of him (he doesn't stand out in any categories: speed, defense, average, power), but as a backup shortstop, I suppose he'll do.
I'm curious as to what the Giants' next moves are...do they need another outfield reserve, like Pat Burrell? Or is it enough to have Aaron Rowand, Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Nate Schierholtz, and Aubrey Huff?
For the price I'm not interested, but Lance Berkman is intriguing. He wants to play outfield or first base, both of which, I suppose he would add depth to (although the Giants are really not in need of a first-baseman). With a resurgence of the bat, he would be the new-and-improved Pat the Bat. Seriously. He takes walks, he has Burrell-like power, and he's a switch hitter. With dedication to fitness, he'd be as good as Burrell in the outfield. But again, too much money, aging, and there's the injury risk. An intriguing name for discussion, though, I suppose...thoughts?
Are the Giants going to get a Matt Stairs? A hitter whose primary, and pretty much only role is to be the pinch-hitter? That was the goal with Burrell, but he sort of forced his way into the starting lineup. I wonder if the Giants will try to get this. Maybe Russell Branyan or a Mike Sweeney? Probably not, though. They have an excess of position players, with Whiteside, Burriss, Rowand, Schierholtz, Ishikawa, and possibly Fontenot.
My guess at the starters for 2011:
C Posey
1B Huff
2B Sanchez
SS Tejada
3B Sandoval
LF DeRosa
CF Torres
RF Ross
So, I think the Giants are pretty much done with their offseason shopping. Some possible bench bats...names for discussion: Branyan, Sweeney, Berkman, any others? I'm interested to hear what your thoughts are...
A lot of folks might assume the Giants are no longer interested in trading for Jason Bartlett, or to a lesser extent, J.J. Hardy and Marco Scutaro. Don’t be so sure of that yet. Remember, the front office has threatened Sandoval with a demotion to Triple-A Fresno to start the year if he doesn’t make progress in his conditioning this offseason. You can’t make a threat like that without having alternatives on the roster, and considering how important defense will be to their pitching-centric club, Tejada is a better fit at third base, anyway.Well, it's not the case. As recently noted by none other than Andrew Baggarly, the Giants aren't in on Bartlett. He says, "Now I'm hearing Giants are out on a Jason Bartlett trade. They had $5-7 million budgeted for a starting SS and spent it on Tejada." So we're back to square one. The Giants will need shortstop depth. I just don't think Emmanuel Burriss is a decent backup shortstop. And Brandon Crawford just isn't ready...
I suppose it's a good thing that Tejada was acquired to be a starting shortstop (rather than a backup plan at third base), in that it actually somewhat justified his $6.5MM contract. But this means the Giants are still lacking depth at short, and not seeking to fix that with a Hardy, Scutaro, or a Bartlett. Unless of course, they tender Mike Fontenot a contract. I guess I could see him as a backup shortstop. He produced negative WAR with the Giants in 2010, and I've never been too fond of him (he doesn't stand out in any categories: speed, defense, average, power), but as a backup shortstop, I suppose he'll do.
I'm curious as to what the Giants' next moves are...do they need another outfield reserve, like Pat Burrell? Or is it enough to have Aaron Rowand, Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Nate Schierholtz, and Aubrey Huff?
For the price I'm not interested, but Lance Berkman is intriguing. He wants to play outfield or first base, both of which, I suppose he would add depth to (although the Giants are really not in need of a first-baseman). With a resurgence of the bat, he would be the new-and-improved Pat the Bat. Seriously. He takes walks, he has Burrell-like power, and he's a switch hitter. With dedication to fitness, he'd be as good as Burrell in the outfield. But again, too much money, aging, and there's the injury risk. An intriguing name for discussion, though, I suppose...thoughts?
Are the Giants going to get a Matt Stairs? A hitter whose primary, and pretty much only role is to be the pinch-hitter? That was the goal with Burrell, but he sort of forced his way into the starting lineup. I wonder if the Giants will try to get this. Maybe Russell Branyan or a Mike Sweeney? Probably not, though. They have an excess of position players, with Whiteside, Burriss, Rowand, Schierholtz, Ishikawa, and possibly Fontenot.
My guess at the starters for 2011:
C Posey
1B Huff
2B Sanchez
SS Tejada
3B Sandoval
LF DeRosa
CF Torres
RF Ross
So, I think the Giants are pretty much done with their offseason shopping. Some possible bench bats...names for discussion: Branyan, Sweeney, Berkman, any others? I'm interested to hear what your thoughts are...
Giants Sign Miguel Tejada for $6.5MM
The Giants just agreed to sign Miguel Tejada to a 1yr/$6.5MM contract. I am not even joking...
Yesterday, I defended Tejada as an option in an argument with a friend. I'll admit it. I cited three reasons as to why:
Yesterday, I defended Tejada as an option in an argument with a friend. I'll admit it. I cited three reasons as to why:
- Durable (he's averaged 158 games each season since 1999). Yes, he's going into his age-37 season. But I figured that wouldn't matter, given his durability in the past.
- Due for a resurgence (his 2010 season seems to me like an outlier, and he could likely hit more like the player he was in 2009)
- Cheap. I figured he'd be a last-minute option, and the Giants could get him for $3MM. After all, he was signed to a one-year $6MM deal in 2010, and performed worse than he ever has. I figured he'd receive quite a pay decrease. Man, was I wrong.
Brian Sabean panicked. He saw the Cardinals acquire Ryan Theriot. He knew that he couldn't get Stephen Drew nor Jose Reyes. He knew Derek Jeter was not a legitimate possibility. Most importantly, he saw the Dodgers acquire NLCS hero Juan Uribe. J.J. Hardy was probably not easily accessible, nor was Jason Bartlett I suppose (there are speculations that the Rays wanted Sergio Romo...). So Sabes acted fast. Too fast. And he gave Miguel Tejada twice as much money as he deserves.
I don't dislike Tejada as the Giants' starting shortstop, and maybe I'm crazy because of it. After all, he produced 1.4 WAR in 59 games with the Padres. Obviously, that's a partial product of small sample size. But he's not terrible. He could easily produce 2 WAR for the Giants, which would render him, in some eyes, an average shortstop.
But this is not how the Giants succeed. They succeed by getting those bargain contracts, like the $6MM that they had to shed out for the combination of Aubrey Huff and Juan Uribe in 2010. And it got them to the World Series.
This is a stupid deal, not because Tejada is bad -- although it would be nice if the Giants got a player that wasn't nearing 40 years of age -- it's that they gave him $6.5MM. I think, in terms of WAR, he could very possibly meet that value (or even exceed it). He produced 1.3 WAR last year, his worst season ever, and that's valued at near $6.5MM. So I don't doubt that he can live up to the contract.
But again, that's not how the Giants succeed. They need players to be worth more than their contract. For $3MM, I would love to have Tejada. Of course, I would appreciate if the Giants had a decent back-up plan, for the possibility that Tejada gets injured or just plain sucks, but I would have been fine with a one-year $3MM deal. Even in spite of his declining power, his poor walk rates, his terrible defensive range, and his age.
This contract can be filed under Brian Sabean's terrible contracts, along with the Aaron Rowand contract, the Dave Roberts contract, and the Barry Zito contract. It won't harm the Giants too much, but it was an obvious mistake.
I can now feel content in going back to criticizing Sabean. Everybody fell in love with him when the Giants won the World Series, although I felt that he was receiving too much credit. Hopefully, people will be able to recognize that not all of his moves are brilliant, like the acquisitions of Cody Ross and Pat Burrell. Hopefully, people will realize that Tejada is receiving more money than he deserves and more money than the Giants needed to pay him.
If Tejada returns to his 2009 form, I will still hate this contract. To reiterate, it's more money than the Giants needed to pay him.
UPDATE: As Andrew Baggarly notes, "Tejada also has led his league in ground-ball double plays in five of the last seven seasons. Recall that the Giants broke a 70-year-old franchise record for GIDPs in 2010, with Pablo Sandoval pacing the NL." Yikes...
UPDATE: As Andrew Baggarly notes, "Tejada also has led his league in ground-ball double plays in five of the last seven seasons. Recall that the Giants broke a 70-year-old franchise record for GIDPs in 2010, with Pablo Sandoval pacing the NL." Yikes...
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Links Ed. #3
Every week, I gather links to interesting baseball-related articles, photos, videos, graphs, etc. Enjoy...
- Larry Granillo of Wezen-Ball has developed a Periodic Table of Hall-of-Famers.
- For you iPhone/iPod Touch owners, Fangraphs is having a sale on their iPhone app (99 cents for a limited time). I highly recommend it...win probability graphs, and player stats.
- Beyond the Box Score made an interesting graph of Jeff Bagwell vs. typical hall-of-famers
- David Golebiewski of Fangraphs analyzed Jason Bartlett and came to the conclusion that he "figures to be worth more than he’s paid. But not by much."
- Aubrey Huff's decline in the second half of 2010 was in large part due to a drop-off in hitting breaking pitches thrown by left-handers.
If you know/have an interesting baseball-or-Giants-related link, by all means tell us about it.
Saturday, November 27, 2010
Andres Torres: Platoon?
Throughout the playoffs, opposing managers routinely brought left-handed specialists to face leadoff hitter Andres Torres. The rationale for this move is simple. Torres, a switch hitter, is perceived as a bigger threat from the left than the right. Some numbers seem to support this notion. In 2010, Torres hit a solid .284 from the left while managing only a meager .226 from the right. In addition, 14 of his 16 home runs this year came from the left. These stats lead manager Bruce Bochy to flirt with the idea of platooning Torres with a right handed hitter such as Aaron Rowand. There are several reasons that this is a bad idea for 2011.
When looking only at 2010, Andres Torres appears to be significantly better from the left side. Interestingly enough, this was not always the case. If you remember back to 2009, Torres' offensive production came almost completely from the right side. In limited playing time, he hit a robust .338 from the right and a mere .210 from the left. While both of these numbers are small sample sizes, they show that Andres is capable of being a respectable hitter from the right side. What should we expect from Andres Torres in 2011? His 2010 peripheral stats indicate that he is due for a small resurgence as a right-handed hitter. His right-handed BABIP of .275 was below league average, especially for a man of his speed. He actually hit more line drives and fewer pop-ups from the right side. It is reasonable to expect that Andres Torres will not have a significant platoon split next year. He may be a better hitter from the left side, but he is certainly not terrible from the right.
Another essential aspect of Andres Torres' game is his speed. The Giants' projected 2011 lineup will be one of the slowest in the league. Just last year, Aubrey Huff ranked second in the stolen bases category with just seven. Cody Ross has above average speed, but he has never stolen more than ten bags a season. If the Giants fail to get a speedy shortstop such as Jason Bartlett, Torres will be the only running threat on a team that already struggles to push runs across the plate. His ability to make things happen on the bases is invaluable. For this reason, keeping him out of the lineup is simply not an option.
Torres' final and arguably most important asset is his defense. While he was snubbed of a Gold Glove this year, he was undeniably one of the best outfielders in baseball. His amazing range was crucial when Bruce Bochy chose to surround him with two DH's, Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen. Better yet, he has the ability to play all three positions with ease. According to Ultimate Zone Rating, Andres Torres was 21.2 runs above average in the field in 2010. That number ranks him as the second best defensive player in the game, trailing only Yankees speedster Brett Gardner. Even if Torres continues to flounder while hitting from the right side, his excellent glove work should more than compensate.
When looking only at 2010, Andres Torres appears to be significantly better from the left side. Interestingly enough, this was not always the case. If you remember back to 2009, Torres' offensive production came almost completely from the right side. In limited playing time, he hit a robust .338 from the right and a mere .210 from the left. While both of these numbers are small sample sizes, they show that Andres is capable of being a respectable hitter from the right side. What should we expect from Andres Torres in 2011? His 2010 peripheral stats indicate that he is due for a small resurgence as a right-handed hitter. His right-handed BABIP of .275 was below league average, especially for a man of his speed. He actually hit more line drives and fewer pop-ups from the right side. It is reasonable to expect that Andres Torres will not have a significant platoon split next year. He may be a better hitter from the left side, but he is certainly not terrible from the right.
Another essential aspect of Andres Torres' game is his speed. The Giants' projected 2011 lineup will be one of the slowest in the league. Just last year, Aubrey Huff ranked second in the stolen bases category with just seven. Cody Ross has above average speed, but he has never stolen more than ten bags a season. If the Giants fail to get a speedy shortstop such as Jason Bartlett, Torres will be the only running threat on a team that already struggles to push runs across the plate. His ability to make things happen on the bases is invaluable. For this reason, keeping him out of the lineup is simply not an option.
Torres' final and arguably most important asset is his defense. While he was snubbed of a Gold Glove this year, he was undeniably one of the best outfielders in baseball. His amazing range was crucial when Bruce Bochy chose to surround him with two DH's, Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen. Better yet, he has the ability to play all three positions with ease. According to Ultimate Zone Rating, Andres Torres was 21.2 runs above average in the field in 2010. That number ranks him as the second best defensive player in the game, trailing only Yankees speedster Brett Gardner. Even if Torres continues to flounder while hitting from the right side, his excellent glove work should more than compensate.
Friday, November 26, 2010
Twins Win Bidding for Nishioka. Good News for Giants?
The Twins have won the bidding for Japanese middle-infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka. This could be good news for the Giants, though.
Nishioka is said to be a better fit at second base, but the Giants are looking for a guy who can play shortstop well. In 2010, Nishioka posted a slash line of .346/.423/.482, but that was in all likelihood a big fluke, as he had a BABIP of .389... Before that, his previous best was .300/.366/.463...This article by Patrick Newman of Fangraphs basically likens Nishioka to Chone Figgins and Ryan Theriot, both of whom had unimpressive campaigns in 2010. So Nishioka isn't that great...throw in the fees for bidding and signing him to a contract, and it's definitely too high of a price to pay for a relatively weak shortstop.
The good news here is that this increases the likelihood that J.J. Hardy becomes available on the trade market. Hardy is one of the best shortstop options currently available: he's one of the best defensive shortstops in the majors, with a career UZR/150 of 11.0, and his bat has great offensive upside. From 2007-2008, Hardy belted a total of 50 home runs, although he hasn't come near those numbers in the past couple of seasons. However, his Bill James projections see him hitting .263/.328/.425 next year with 16 home runs. Throw in the superb defense that he'll inevitably provide, and that is an extremely valuable shortstop. Even with his .268/.320/.394 slash line in 101 games in 2010, he managed to produce 2.4 WAR. Project that over a full season and his 2010 worth is at 3.5-4.0 WAR. But he's projected to improve upon those numbers. At this point, the Giants probably wouldn't even have to give up much to get him.
His excellent defense and significant offensive potential warrant serious consideration. A lineup of Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff, Freddy Sanchez, J.J. Hardy, Pablo Sandoval, Mark DeRosa, Andres Torres, and Cody Ross is a legitimate offense. Pair that with the incredible rotation that the Giants have, and I think they have the tools to win many games. And that's not even considering the eventual call-up of Brandon Belt.
Nishioka is said to be a better fit at second base, but the Giants are looking for a guy who can play shortstop well. In 2010, Nishioka posted a slash line of .346/.423/.482, but that was in all likelihood a big fluke, as he had a BABIP of .389... Before that, his previous best was .300/.366/.463...This article by Patrick Newman of Fangraphs basically likens Nishioka to Chone Figgins and Ryan Theriot, both of whom had unimpressive campaigns in 2010. So Nishioka isn't that great...throw in the fees for bidding and signing him to a contract, and it's definitely too high of a price to pay for a relatively weak shortstop.
The good news here is that this increases the likelihood that J.J. Hardy becomes available on the trade market. Hardy is one of the best shortstop options currently available: he's one of the best defensive shortstops in the majors, with a career UZR/150 of 11.0, and his bat has great offensive upside. From 2007-2008, Hardy belted a total of 50 home runs, although he hasn't come near those numbers in the past couple of seasons. However, his Bill James projections see him hitting .263/.328/.425 next year with 16 home runs. Throw in the superb defense that he'll inevitably provide, and that is an extremely valuable shortstop. Even with his .268/.320/.394 slash line in 101 games in 2010, he managed to produce 2.4 WAR. Project that over a full season and his 2010 worth is at 3.5-4.0 WAR. But he's projected to improve upon those numbers. At this point, the Giants probably wouldn't even have to give up much to get him.
His excellent defense and significant offensive potential warrant serious consideration. A lineup of Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff, Freddy Sanchez, J.J. Hardy, Pablo Sandoval, Mark DeRosa, Andres Torres, and Cody Ross is a legitimate offense. Pair that with the incredible rotation that the Giants have, and I think they have the tools to win many games. And that's not even considering the eventual call-up of Brandon Belt.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Poll Results: If the Giants don't re-sign Huff, which 1B should they pursue?
Seeing as the Giants just re-signed Huff, I think now is an appropriate time to end the poll...
Here are the results, for those interested:
Here are the results, for those interested:
Aubrey Huff signs two-year deal
Aubrey Huff just re-signed with the San Francisco Giants on a two-year $22MM deal (with a $10MM club option for 2013 -- $2MM buyout). I like this contract a lot...
$10MM a year is not too much money. If Huff can meet his Bill James projections of .269/.348/.453 and play decent defense (maybe just a little above average), he'll be worth it. The Giants can use him as the starting first baseman until Brandon Belt is major-league ready, and at that point they can move Huff to the outfield. It's of course a risk, as Huff might not be able to play good defense in the outfield as he did in 2010, but it's a risk that the Giants will take. For $10MM, Huff's worth it. After all, the guy did finish 7th in NL MVP voting.
As recently as 2009, Huff had an atrocious season, putting up a slash line of .241/.310/.384...there is of course, the risk that he could return to being this hitter. Therefore, a two-year deal is perfect. Huff earned a good contract like this with his play, but anything more than two years is a big risk. He's getting older, as easy as that is to forget, and the Giants have a future star first baseman in Brandon Belt.
And the option -- of course, if Huff does maintain his 2010 performance level for the next couple of years, the Giants can choose to exercise his option, and keep him for 2013 at $10MM.
To sum it up, I am very satisfied with this contract. It gives Huff the money he deserves, but at the same time, not too much money. It also gives him the years he deserves, but allows the Giants to cut off ties with him by 2013, in case he does see a decline. Anyway, glad to have him back. Great clubhouse guy, impact bat, and his defense is better than most say it is.
$10MM a year is not too much money. If Huff can meet his Bill James projections of .269/.348/.453 and play decent defense (maybe just a little above average), he'll be worth it. The Giants can use him as the starting first baseman until Brandon Belt is major-league ready, and at that point they can move Huff to the outfield. It's of course a risk, as Huff might not be able to play good defense in the outfield as he did in 2010, but it's a risk that the Giants will take. For $10MM, Huff's worth it. After all, the guy did finish 7th in NL MVP voting.
As recently as 2009, Huff had an atrocious season, putting up a slash line of .241/.310/.384...there is of course, the risk that he could return to being this hitter. Therefore, a two-year deal is perfect. Huff earned a good contract like this with his play, but anything more than two years is a big risk. He's getting older, as easy as that is to forget, and the Giants have a future star first baseman in Brandon Belt.
And the option -- of course, if Huff does maintain his 2010 performance level for the next couple of years, the Giants can choose to exercise his option, and keep him for 2013 at $10MM.
To sum it up, I am very satisfied with this contract. It gives Huff the money he deserves, but at the same time, not too much money. It also gives him the years he deserves, but allows the Giants to cut off ties with him by 2013, in case he does see a decline. Anyway, glad to have him back. Great clubhouse guy, impact bat, and his defense is better than most say it is.
Monday, November 22, 2010
NL MVP
Joey Votto won the NL MVP Award today, and it was well-deserved. He truly had an amazing season. Congratulations to Aubrey Huff, Buster Posey, and Brian Wilson, who finished 7th, 11th, and 13th respectively in NL MVP voting.
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Marlins Plan on Trading Uggla
First of all, there's no room for him. As long as Pablo Sandoval gets in shape, and Freddy Sanchez remains injury-free, third base and second base are occupied. There is of course, a vacant starting job at first base, but that will likely go to Aubrey Huff. Many fans might wish to see Uggla starting at third instead of Pablo, but I'm sure he'd put up similarly great numbers -- he could easily hit above .300 with solid power (maybe 25 homers).
Secondly, he's costly. Uggla will likely get $10MM this year and then his contract is up. So what do the Giants do then? Sign him to an extension? He already turned down a 4yr/$48MM extension offer from the Florida Marlins, so what does this mean? He could make a huge dent in the Giants payroll for the next several years.
Third of all, his defense is atrocious. His career UZR/150 is -4.5, but in recent years, his defense has gotten even worse. He'll likely move to first base within a few years. That's huge. The reason he is so valuable is because his offensive production is rare, coming from a second baseman. If he moves to first base, he loses a lot of that value. Also, the Giants have an up-and-coming first baseman in their farm system by the name of Brandon Belt. The Giants probably want to have a spot available for him when he's called up to the majors -- rather than occupying first base for the next four to five years.
This isn't even including what the Giants would potentially give up to have Uggla for one year. They'd likely have to part ways with one or more great prospects -- a myopic move for any GM of a team that has just won the World Series.
So anyway, there's no need for Dan Uggla. The Giants could get great offensive production out of Pablo Sandoval for a much, much, much lower cost. And Uggla is expensive -- it would not be wise for the Giants to take on his contract unless they're going to make him an everyday player. Lastly, his defense is just bad. If they were to put him at first base, assuming they don't re-sign Huff, there will be no room for the promising Brandon Belt when he receives his call-up.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Poll: Which 1B would you like to see the San Francisco Giants pursue?
It's likely that Aubrey Huff will return to the San Francisco Giants in 2011. He has, however, received offers from several teams. So if he doesn't return, who would you like to see the Giants pursue for first base? Courtesy of MLBTradeRumors.com, here's the full list of first-base options (besides the 34-year-old Huff):
First Basemen
Many of the free-agent first-basemen are old. Some, like Nick Johnson, have injury risk. Others, like Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn, have uninspiring strikeout totals. There seem to be evident weaknesses with all of the above players, but of all of them, who would you most like to see the Giants pursue?
Personally, I would go with Nick Johnson for a very, very cheap contract due to his career .401 OBP. His ability to take walks is something the Giants could use, though his injury risk is tough to ignore. A safer option might be LaRoche, although I doubt he'd want to play at AT&T Park, and he'll never put up bigger numbers than he has in the past (low upside).
Konerko is a proven veteran, but his stock is way too high after finishing second in the AL in home runs in 2010, and I'm very skeptical as to whether or not he'll ever match that production again.
All in all, this is a tough call. The free agent market is stacked with first-basemen, but all of them have injury risks, are in their mid to late-30s, or just don't have great potential. If the opportunity to get Nick Johnson for a very (and I mean very) low cost presented itself, I think he'd be a good fit. He even gets on base against LHP (career .422 OBP) which is good for the Giants, who have several players that had trouble against left-handed pitching in 2010: Pablo Sandoval and Andres Torres are the stand-outs. Again, this would be if he were available for a cheap contract, because his injury risk is very eminent.
So anyway, who would you want the Giants to go after? Answer the poll on the upper right sidebar, or comment with your opinion.
First Basemen
- Garrett Atkins (31)
- Lance Berkman (35)
- Russell Branyan (35)
- Jorge Cantu (29)
- Adam Dunn (31)
- Troy Glaus (34)
- Mike Hessman (33)
- Eric Hinske (33)
- Nick Johnson (32)
- Paul Konerko (35)
- Casey Kotchman (28)
- Mark Kotsay (35)
- Adam LaRoche (31)
- Derrek Lee (35)
- Melvin Mora (39)
- Xavier Nady (32)
- Lyle Overbay (34)
- Carlos Pena (33)
- Robb Quinlan (34)
- Fernando Tatis (36)
- Mike Sweeney (37)
- Ty Wigginton (33)
Many of the free-agent first-basemen are old. Some, like Nick Johnson, have injury risk. Others, like Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn, have uninspiring strikeout totals. There seem to be evident weaknesses with all of the above players, but of all of them, who would you most like to see the Giants pursue?
Personally, I would go with Nick Johnson for a very, very cheap contract due to his career .401 OBP. His ability to take walks is something the Giants could use, though his injury risk is tough to ignore. A safer option might be LaRoche, although I doubt he'd want to play at AT&T Park, and he'll never put up bigger numbers than he has in the past (low upside).
Konerko is a proven veteran, but his stock is way too high after finishing second in the AL in home runs in 2010, and I'm very skeptical as to whether or not he'll ever match that production again.
All in all, this is a tough call. The free agent market is stacked with first-basemen, but all of them have injury risks, are in their mid to late-30s, or just don't have great potential. If the opportunity to get Nick Johnson for a very (and I mean very) low cost presented itself, I think he'd be a good fit. He even gets on base against LHP (career .422 OBP) which is good for the Giants, who have several players that had trouble against left-handed pitching in 2010: Pablo Sandoval and Andres Torres are the stand-outs. Again, this would be if he were available for a cheap contract, because his injury risk is very eminent.
So anyway, who would you want the Giants to go after? Answer the poll on the upper right sidebar, or comment with your opinion.
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