NLCS Game Two Recap

Game Summary:

Jonathan Sanchez had a sloppy first inning, walking in a run. That would be the only Phillies run of the inning though.

Cody Ross tied the game at 1-1 in the fifth with his fourth home run in the last three games.

Placido Polanco gave the Phillies a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the fifth with a sacrifice fly.

In the seventh, Jonathan Sanchez was replaced by Ramon Ramirez after allowing a leadoff single to Roy Oswalt. Oswalt advanced to second on a sac bunt, and Chase Utley was then walked intentionally. Polanco singled to center, and Oswalt ran through the third base coach's stop sign, coming around to score. The game then exploded from there...Utley and Polanco were successful on a double steal. Jeremy Affeldt came in, struck out Ryan Howard, and intentionally walked Jayson Werth. Santiago Casilla was then brought into the game with the bases loaded and two outs to face Jimmy Rollins came to the plate...Rollins crushed the ball off the right field wall for a three-run double, breaking the game open to make the score 6-1.

The Giants failed to piece together any more runs, losing the game by a final score of 6-1.

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The Giants have a problem with their bullpen...who to use? With the Phillies shuffling their lineup so that Utley and Howard don't bat back-to-back, the Giants no longer have the ability to bring in Javier Lopez to face two lefties in a row. They can use him in the key situation to get one lefty out, though. The bridge to Brian Wilson is sort of a mystery right now, though. Let's examine the possibilities:

Sergio Romo, this year's setup man: he's had three postseason appearances. The first two did not go well. In game two against Atlanta in the NLDS, he allowed singles to the two hitters he faced. In game three in Atlanta, he gave up what could have been the game-winning home run for the Braves, a two-run shot to give them a 2-1 lead. But he had a relatively nice appearance on Sunday...1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB. He might be a good option, although the Phillies are lefty-heavy...Howard, Ibanez, Utley and then the switch-hitting Rollins and Victorino.

Jeremy Affeldt: he's made one appearance in the postseason...in game two of the NLCS on Sunday. He struck Ryan Howard out, then intentionally walked Chase Utley. He could be a good option, too, as he was rather successful in the setup-man role in 2009.

Santiago Casilla: he had a very nice appearance in game three in Atlanta, going 1.2 scoreless innings with just one hit allowed. His appearance on Sunday was not enticing, though...he allowed the huge three-run double to Jimmy Rollins. I think he's more suited to face Carlos Ruiz / Placido Polanco / Jayson Werth. I just don't trust him in a close ballgame to face a LHH.

Ramon Ramirez: he has a 12.86 ERA in the postseason (2.1 innings pitched). He's starting to look more like the pitcher that had a 4.46 ERA for Boston this year than the one who had a 0.67 ERA for the Giants. Again...I'd trust him to face a righty..but at this point, not a powerful left-handed hitter, especially in a critical situation. Remember...Rick Ankiel hit that home run off of him.

At this point, I think the Giants just need to piece together relievers. Their starters need to give them innings. They must go six innings..minimum. If Brian Wilson pitches the ninth, I don't think it's too hard to piece together these four pitchers for the seventh and eighth innings in a tight game.

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Andres Torres isn't hitting. It's becoming rather problematic. He had four strikeouts on Sunday, so he has not really shown signs of breaking out of this slump. Considering that game three's pitcher is a left-hander, and Torres bats much worse on the right side (.226 batting average), there might be thought about whether he should play or not...the Giants could be considering playing Aaron Rowand against the lefty Cole Hamels. My take? It's not worth it. Torres' defense is too valuable to replace him with Rowand...and is Rowand really going to be an offensive upgrade? It would make a little more sense to play Rowand if it were in Philadelphia, where he put up the best season of his career. But in San Francisco it's a clear 'no'. 

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The Giants have some thinking to do about their SS/3B situation for game three. If Uribe is healthy, it makes sense to put him in. That leaves Pablo Sandoval, Mike Fontenot, and Edgar Renteria. I'd rather not put Fontenot in the lineup for game three..in addition to the fact that they'll be facing a left-handed pitcher and Fontenot bats left-handed, he played very sloppy baseball in game two. I say if Uribe's healthy, play Sandoval and Uribe on the left side. If not, play Sandoval and Renteria. Sandoval even has good career numbers against Hamels (3 for 10, 1 HR). 

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Cody Ross. How 'bout this guy? He homered in his third straight game, joining Barry Bonds and Jeffrey Leonard as just the third Giant to have a three-game home run streak in the postseason. He supplied the only run for the Giants in this one...as FP Santangelo noted, Ross should crowd the plate for the next few games. The Phillies are no longer going to throw him that low-inside fastball that he keeps crushing...so he should move in to get around on that outside fastball that they're going to start throwing him. 

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Solid outing by Jonathan Sanchez. It wasn't perfect -- far from it, actually, but it was yet another decent start: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 7 K, 3 BB. 

National League Division Series Game One Preview

Game One, Thursday October 7, Derek Lowe vs. Tim Lincecum...

Derek Lowe has been fantastic in September/October with a 1.17 ERA in 30.2 innings pitched. His overall 2010 numbers are nothing special, though -- a solid 4.00 ERA, along with a decent 58.8% groundball rate -- still below his career average of 62.9%. Nevertheless, he has the veteran, postseason experience -- for what that's worth -- and he did well in his two starts against the Giants this year: 11.1 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 2.38 ERA. The Giants need to avoid the double play. Derek Lowe is a groundball pitcher, and if he exposes this Giants weakness, they won't be scoring many runs...

Tim Lincecum hasn't been too shabby down the stretch either...52 strikeouts and a 1.94 ERA in 41.2 innings pitched in September/October. He's had an up-and-down year in 2010 -- the 3.43 ERA is quite uncharacteristic -- but he still has swing-and-miss stuff: a 9.79 K/9 and his swinging strike percentage (11.0%) is better than it was last year, when he won the Cy Young Award (10.7%). He's pitching once again like a Cy Young Award winner, and, needless to say, will need to continue to do so in order for the Giants to do well in the playoffs.

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Aaron Rowand, it was announced, will be on the postseason roster. This is not too bad. He won't be used too often -- just as a pinch hitter, and not in highly critical situations. He's had his fair share of clutch home runs this year -- 11 home runs in 331 at-bats overall -- and if he provides just one or two key home runs in the postseason, it will be worth it. He's not going to hit for average. He's not going to steal bases. He's not going to cover good range in centerfield. He's not going to gun down any runners from the outfield. But he could -- just maybe -- hit a ball out of the park. If the Giants stay in the playoffs long enough to see the Phillies, Aaron Rowand might benefit from the park (Citizens Bank Park) that got him his 6 year/$50MM contract (.309 average with 27 home runs in 2007).

Barry Zito, on the other hand, likely won't make the playoffs. This is a smart decision, and frankly, it goes without saying. Madison Bumgarner has been a far better pitcher, and the bullpen has stronger left-handed pitchers -- Javier Lopez, Dan Runzler, Jeremy Affeldt.

Key to this game: Andres Torres. It's been said a lot, but he will be key as the table-setting catalyst. Especially with a groundball pitcher on the mound, speed is invaluable. He'll need to have his legs going in order to jumpstart this Giants offense, and help them avoid double plays. His power and defense will also come in handy...

Expectations:

•  A big game out of Pablo Sandoval. It's a risky call, but he's been playing better lately (he went 7 for 18 on the Giants' final homestand) and he's hit well at home all year long (.330/.382/.520 slash line). 
• Aubrey Huff will have a good game. It's his first postseason game in his 11-year career, and he's basically led the Giants' offense the whole season (especially when Posey was still in Fresno). He'll be pumped up, he had an RBI double in the critical game #162, so he's clearly able to contribute in these high-stakes games -- despite the fact that he hasn't yet played on this stage. 
• And...Rowand likely won't face Lowe, but he does have great numbers against him. He's 11 for 23 (.478) against Lowe in his career. He probably won't face him though. So expect nothing. 
• Big Time Timmy Jim. The Freak. Tim Lincecum. Expect, at the very least, a quality start out of him: minimum of six innings pitched, with a maximum of three earned runs. 
• A clutch home run from somebody: Uribe? Posey? Burrell? Ross? 

Randy Wolf Shuts Down San Francisco for Nine Innings

Orange Fridays just aren't so magical anymore...

There's really not much to be said about this game. The Giants lost 3-0 because they simply could not execute. They grounded into two double plays (Pablo  Sandoval wasn't the culprit of either), both of which killed legitimate threats to score. In the 3rd, with runners on 1st and 2nd and nobody out, Bumgarner failed to lay down a bunt. The ball flew off of his bat and one-hopped to McGehee, who then turned a double play, and Renteria then failed to get the runner home from third base. In the 5th, Pat  Burrell led off with a single, but Uribe then fouled out and Jose  Guillen grounded into a double play to end the inning. The Giants couldn't really take many pitches, because Randy  Wolf pounded the strike zone, but their aggressive style didn't work too well. Through the first six innings, Wolf only had to throw 22 pitches through innings 4, 5, and 6 combined. The Giants just couldn't make him work hard.

Their defense was also atrocious. Juan  Uribe made an error for the second game in a row, and in the 7th inning, Jeremy  Affeldt made a decision to throw home on an easy come-backer (it wasn't a force out, but it was an easy play) and threw the ball over Buster  Posey, allowing the Brewers to score their third run. These are just the obvious signs of poor defense. When Madison  Bumgarner pitches well, but gives up nine hits (his final line: 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 5 K), it's clearly the result of mediocre defense. Very few of the hits he allowed were hit hard, but Burrell, Ross, and Guillen don't cover much range in the outfield at this point...Triple's alley will be home run's alley until Torres returns.

Bumgarner was able to pitch out of many jams, though, a sign of his maturity as a pitcher and his ability to stay focused on the mound. He has received zero runs of support over his last three starts. The Giants' pitching is most likely going to keep them in games every day from here on out, so they need to start hitting. No more double plays. No more low pitch counts for opposing pitchers. No more failed bunt attempts. No more stranded runners in scoring position. They just can't afford to fail to execute basic fundamental baseball -- at this point it will cost them a ticket to the postseason.

Luckily, the Padres faced the same fate as the Giants on Friday, losing 14-4. They still remain right on the Giants' tails, though, just half a game back. The Giants's next five games are against losing teams, so now's when they need to take advantage...build upon their NL West lead...

Tomorrow: Pitchers' duel. Gallardo vs. Lincecum. Uribe has a 3 for 5 against Gallardo in his career, but collectively, the Giants don't hit him well (.235 career average). Lincecum has pitched well lately, and will be at home, where he's at his best. It should be a good match-up.

Giants Lose Opener in LA: 4-2

The Giants lost the first game of a three game series in Los Angeles thanks to a poor pitching effort by Barry Zito: 4 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 5 K; with each game it is becoming more evident that, for the Giants -- a team built around their rotation -- to succeed, their starters need to perform. Four innings out of any starter just isn't going to work..Zito had some good stuff working on Friday, but his problem was ultimately is his control (or lack thereof). In the fourth inning, with the game tied 2-2, Zito began by walking two consecutive batters, Matt Kemp and Casey Blake. Four batters later, Chad Billingsley was up with the bases loaded (the game still tied), and hit a liner to right field. Jose Guillen appeared to be ready to make a shoestring catch, but couldn't come up with the ball. It's in games like these that his lack of defensive prowess really hurts the Giants. Any other Giants right fielder -- Schierholtz, Huff, Torres, Ross -- could have made that catch. 


WPA (Win Probability Added) is a baseball statistic which attempts to measure a player's contribution to a win by figuring the factor by which each specific play made by that player has altered the outcome of a game. Guillen, of all the Giants, had the worst WPA in the game (-.107), lowering their chances of winning by 10.7% simply based on the night he had at the plate, going 0 for 4 and stranding four runners. This, of course, doesn't take into account the catch he failed to make, which turned out to be the difference in the game. Pitching and defense go hand in hand -- in order for good pitching to function, their needs to be a defense capable of supporting the pitcher; with Guillen in right field, there's little range being covered. Lastly, he should not be batting fifth in the lineup, especially if that means Posey, one of the Giants' most consistent hitters, is batting sixth. 


The Giants' offense, overall, failed to produce on Friday. It's understandable, because they were facing a good pitcher in Chad Billingsley, but they got just two hits...they need to get used to facing good pitching -- they'll see two more good pitchers this series: Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda. 


Notes:

• The Giants' relievers put together a nice little performance: Ray, Casilla, and Affeldt combined for a line of 4 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB. 
• Henry Schulman made a good point a few days ago about what the Giants need to do to make the playoffs: 

"Well, a 20-11 finish would get them to 92-70, pretty much assuring they'd be in. To do that, they have to have another month like their 20-8 July. It won't be easy for myriad reasons. They have seven left San Diego, including four down south. After the Rockies series, they embark on a 10-game trip to Los Angeles, Arizona and the aforementioned series in San Diego. The Giants are 10-13 on the road against the West this year. Capish?"

•  The Padres have lost their eighth game in a row, after previously not having lost more than three games in a row this season. They are really struggling. They have managed to score just 19 runs over that eight-game span, averaging a dismal 2.4 runs scored per game. Their pitching -- arguably the best in the majors -- has also been struggling. They've given up 45 runs over the past eight games, averaging 5.6 runs allowed per game. Here's where the Giants can take advantage. At this point, it would be easier (and much, much, more fun) to seize a playoff spot from a team that is quickly crumbling to pieces. 
• On a related note, the Giants now, technically speaking, are as close to winning the NL West as they are to winning the NL Wild Card: they are 3.0 GB of the Padres for the division title, and 3.0 GB of the Phillies for the Wild Card lead. 

Tomorrow: Ted Lilly will pitch against Matt Cain. Aubrey Huff should get the day off (3 for 25 in his career against Lilly), and Freddy Sanchez could have a nice day at the plate (8 for 23, .348 in his career against Lilly). Juan Uribe is 4 for 13 with 2 HR in his career against Lilly. Overall, though, the Giants don't have great numbers against him. Matt Cain does not have good numbers against the Dodgers, largely thanks to Andre Ethier, who is 18 for 35 (.514) in his career against Matt Cain.

Giants' Starting Pitching is Heating Up: 5-2

Torres' 8th inning solo HR gave the Giants the lead.

Madison Bumgarner bounced back from the worst start of his career by pitching 6 solid innings, giving up 1 ER and just 5 hits. The bullpen provided decent assistance, as Ramon Ramirez, Jeremy Affeldt, and Brian Wilson combined for 3 innings, giving up 1 ER.

The Giants had failed opportunities to put runs on the board:

• With a runner on third, Andres Torres struck out swinging to end the 5th. 
• With runners on the corners in the 7th, Pablo Sandoval struck out, Juan Uribe struck out, then Ishikawa grounded out, ending their threat to score
• With runners on second and third and one out in the 8th, the Giants failed to score. 

They ultimately executed as much as they needed to, though. Freddy Sanchez scored on a balk, Madison Bumgarner hit an RBI double, and in a tie game (2-2), Andres Torres led off the 8th with a solo shot. Buster Posey then added to the Giants' lead, crushing a fly ball to the right field brick wall for a 2-run double. Five runs is more than enough for the Giants if they pitch like they can, like they have in the past three games (Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner). The failed opportunities might start haunting them soon, though, as they did in the first half, when the Giants' offense was much weaker. 

Tomorrow: The Giants will face Ubaldo Jimenez for the fourth time. The Giants bat a collective .239 in 155 ABs in their careers against Ubaldo. None of them have had much success, with the exception of Pablo Sandoval who is 10 for 28 against him with 1 HR. The Giants got shutout by Ubaldo last time he pitched against them at home, but their offense has changed immensely since then, and home is where they hit best. They should be able to score enough runs to support a good Tim Lincecum outing. 

Tim Lincecum: He's coming off a start in which he gave up 4 ER in 6 IP, which was actually an improvement over previous starts. He appears to be headed toward a return to form, so I wouldn't be surprised if he pitches a quality start tomorrow. We'll just have to wait and see what happens with him...Tomorrow will be a good indicator of where he is right now, in terms of how he can perform routinely. If he gets lit up once again, then he's probably far from becoming that Cy Young pitcher he was not too long ago.

Giants Snap Losing Streak: 9-7

Cain did his job; now it's Sanchez's turn.

Matt Cain is the 2010 stopper. Lincecum was the go-to guy last year; whenever the Giants had a losing streak, he would stop it; which is actually not surprising at all, considering that he pitched behind Joe Martinez and Randy Johnson for a good part of the season, and he was a Cy Young winner. This season, Matt Cain is becoming that guy. With consecutive bad performances from Sanchez, Bumgarner, Lincecum, and Zito, Cain stopped the bleeding. It wasn't a brilliant outing: 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K; but it got the job done nevertheless. The relief was terrible, except Brian Wilson, of course. Casilla, Affeldt, and Lopez combined for 4 ER and 5 H in 1.0 IP. But Wilson came in and shut the door for 1.2 innings.

Five Giants had multi-hit games:

• Freddy Sanchez - 3 for 5, 2 RBI
• Andres Torres - 2 for 4, 2 RBI
• Matt Cain - 2 for 3, 1 R
• Eli Whiteside - 2 for 4, 2 R
• Pablo Sandoval - 2 for 4, 2 R 

It's nice to be seeing Freddy Sanchez and Pablo Sandoval on this list on a daily basis. It legitimizes their "return to form". 

Notes:

• It's nice to see Cody Ross in the lineup. He didn't have a hit, but did get a sacrifice fly in the 7th inning. And he's an obvious defensive upgrade over Burrell. 
• Props to Jose Guillen: he had a clutch hit in the 7th that ultimately was the difference in the game. With runners on second and third, he singled to center to make the score 7-6. Finally, his offense comes at a timely manner. 
• It will be interesting to see if Posey catches tomorrow. He's probably recovered by now from his left-forearm strain, but typically Whiteside catches Jonathan Sanchez, because of their rapport since he caught his no-hitter. I'd bet Posey's playing if he's fine. 
• Freddy Sanchez: 15 for his last 24 (.625 avg); He had a nice 2-strike opposite-field double to give the Giants an insurance run in the bottom of the eighth. 

Tomorrow: Jonathan Sanchez will pitch against the Rockies' Jorge De La Rosa, who has a 4.54 ERA. The Giants should be able to win this game: the Rockies are 25-40 away from home, and some Giants (Sanchez, Ross, Uribe) have good numbers against him. Sanchez is 6 for 14 against him in his career with 1 HR.

Jonathan Sanchez, meanwhile, has good numbers against Colorado. They bat a collective .243 against him in their careers with just 1 HR in 107 AB. Watch out for Troy Tulowitzki though: 7 for 17 lifetime with a HR vs. Sanchez. 

Arizona Shuts Down Giants: 6-0

Freddy Sanchez is still on fire.
The Giants? Not so much. 

The Giants are the definition of unpredictable: after scoring 10+ runs in three games in a row (against legitimate starters in Volquez, Wood, Bailey), they failed to score a single run against a rookie for a team that is far out of contention. To his credit, Barry Enright, Arizona's starter, has actually put up decent numbers this year: 2.73 ERA in 59.1 IP, and an opposing average of .230; still, though, it's startling that the Giants failed to score even one run against him, given the fact that they had scored 38 runs in the previous three games.

Tim Lincecum's struggles continued. He has failed to record a quality start in his last four starts, giving up 19 runs in his last 19 IP. The mere fact that he lasted six innings, though, is promising, as it is the first time he has done so since August 5. One mistake essentially made his outing mediocre, a three-run homer given up to Adam LaRoche in the first inning. Over the next five innings, however, he managed to give up just one run. He seems to be finding rhythm in certain places: a 1-2-3 second inning, a 1-2-3 fourth inning; the one alarming number from the start is the four walks over six innings. This is the highest it's been in any of his starts since July 2. Overall, though, this start seemed like a step in the right direction. He appears to be improving with each start, and should hopefully return to ace status in a timely manner, as the Giants can't afford to be without the Freak doing what he does.

Notes:

• Jose Guillen's hitting has been good for the Giants (although his defense is wretched...). The one thing that does stick out though, is that despite a .371 average along with a home run in 36 AB, he has driven in just three runs. He's batting .263 with runners on, which is much lower than his actual batting average. He doesn't hit too well when he's needed to drive in runs. 
• Freddy Sanchez was 2 for 4, as his batting average continues to shoot up. The Giants could use a .300-hitting second baseman for the rest of the year.
• Jeremy Affeldt gave up 1 ER in 1.1 IP. He hasn't done well since returning, and hasn't been all too impressive for the entire year for that matter. The Giants' success in September will rely more heavily on Dontrelle Willis and Dan Runzler because of this. For now, though, Javier Lopez is doing a fine job. He's the only lefty reliever on the Giants that's doing so, however. 
• Orange Friday magic seems to be fading. The Giants have now lost two games on the day that was once perfect (9-0). 
• Oh yeah, and just for the record: Cody Ross did not play in this game. 

Tomorrow: Giants face Daniel Hudson who has been incredible since coming over from the White Sox in a trade for Edwin Jackson. His ERA is 1.72; They'll need Zito to step it up. The Giants have been carried by hitting recently: when they don't hit, they lose. Facing a tough pitcher, they might have trouble scoring runs, but Zito can help out the cause by pitching like he did at the beginning of the year, or the beginning of the second half. 

Todd Wellemeyer is Terrible

In the midst of another Giants' loss (6-3 loss to the Braves), we once again witnessed a terrible performance by Todd Wellemeyer. This was his first chance at the long relief role, and frankly, it should be his last. Of the 4 hitters he faced, every single one got a hit. Meanwhile, due to a short bench, Bochy had to use Matt Cain to pinch hit for Jonathan Sanchez in the 5th inning. Who knows what would've happened if Todd Wellemeyer wasn't Todd Wellemeyer, but instead, a hitter on the bench. Then we wouldn't have to rely on Matt Cain, who's batting below .100, to pinch hit. Not to mention, we wouldn't be risking the loss of our most consistent pitcher (let's not forget what happened to Dan Runzler when he tried to hit in Milwaukee...he's still on the disabled list). Also, instead of using Wellemeyer to pitch in the 5th inning, we could've used one of our other bullpen guys - for example, Santiago Casilla, who relieved Wellemeyer today and gave up 0 ER and just 1 hit in 2 innings. At this point, Wellemeyer offers absolutely nothing to the Giants. We have a great pitching staff, so the chances that we'll need a guy to eat up innings in the bullpen are slim. Even when our pitchers aren't pitching well, they usually keep us in the game. No need to give up these games by using Wellemeyer. Let's just keep an extra hitter on the bench, at least until Affeldt or Runzler returns. Then we can re-evaluate our situation. After all, it's only a few weeks until the rosters expand. For now though, a hitter, like Jesus Guzman for example (who projects to hit .269/.319/.405 in the majors for what it's worth...), would be of significantly more value to the Giants than Todd Wellemeyer. Guzman is hitting .382 over his last 10 games in AAA.