San Francisco Giants - 2011 ZiPS Projections

Dan Szymborski released his 2011 ZiPS projections.

Highlights for me:

• Nate Schierholtz is projected to hit better than Mark DeRosa. This is no surprise, obviously, with DeRosa coming off of wrist surgery, but it's still interesting. If there's an outfield spot open, I'd much rather see the trio of Ross/Torres/Schierholtz out there than DeRosa/Torres/Ross. 
• Brandon Belt: .266/.357/.440 
• Freddy Sanchez...he's aging, but I think he can do better than his projection of .278/.320/.386

The Giants and Baserunning

I recently got the 2011 Bill James Handbook (which I highly recommend, by the way), and one of the sections in the book is about 2010 Major League Baserunning. I was not surprised at all to find that the Giants were the second-worst baserunning team in the majors -- behind only the Kansas City Royals.

For context -- an average major leaguer went from first to third on a single 28% of the time; a very good baserunner will go from first to third on a single about 38% of the time; and a very slow runner will do it about 18% of the time. 

The Giants went from first to third on a single 82 times in 297 chances for a rate of 27.6%...so they were one base below average. 

Now, an average major league player scored from second on a single 58% of the time; a very good baserunner will score from second on a single around 70% of the time; and a very slow runner will score from second around 41% of the time. 

The Giants scored from second on a single 100 times in 170 chances for a rate of 58.8%...so they were one base above average. 

Lastly, an average major leaguer will score from first on a double 44% of the time; 62% is very good, 27% is very poor. 

The Giants scored from first on a double 31 times in 84 chances for a rate of 36.9%...about six bases below average. 

A player is credited with a base taken when they advance on a passed ball, a wild pitch, a sac fly, a defensive indifference, or a balk. The Giants had 167 bases taken, which was about six bases below average. 

The Giants, meanwhile, were thrown out advancing 25 times -- tied for tenth-best in the majors, and were doubled off 17 times -- tied for the worst mark of any major league team. 

In average, a player grounds into a double play (in a double play opportunity) 11% of the time. The Giants grounded into a major-league worst 157 double plays. They had 1135 GIDP opportunities, so that rate comes to about 13.8%, or 32 double plays below average. 

Baserunning Gain comprises all of these statistics...it is "the total of all the types of extra baserunning advances minus the (triple) penalty for all the BR Outs compared with what would be expected based on the MLB averages"....BR Outs "include the sum of Outs Advancing, Doubled Offs, and when a runner is tagged out on the bases when another runner moves up on a Wild Pitch, Passed Ball, or scores on a Sacrifice Fly."

The Giants had 43 BR Outs and their BR Gain of -42 was the fifth-worst mark in the majors. 

Meanwhile, the Giants had an SB Gain of -9, the absolute worst in the majors. SB Gain is based on the fact that stolen base attempts must be successful greater than about two thirds of the time to have a positive result on the number of runs scored. It is therefore "the number of bases stolen minus two times the number of caught stealing (SB Gain = SB - 2CS)." The Giants stole 53 bases (26 of which were stolen by Andres Torres), and were caught stealing 31 times, so that equates to 53-62 which is equal to -9. 

The Giants had an overall net gain (SB Gain + BR Gain) of -51, trailing only the Kansas City Royals as the worst baserunning team. 

Some stand-out individual Giants net gains:

• Andres Torres +28
• Nate Schierholtz +13
• Pablo Sandoval -27
• Aubrey Huff +8
• Edgar Renteria, Cody Ross (with Marlins and Giants), and Buster Posey +1
• Bengie Molina (with Giants and Rangers) -13
• Jose Guillen (with Royals and Giants) -25

It seems as though the Giants have moved in the wrong direction in fixing their baserunning problem, as Miguel Tejada had a net gain of -5, a bit worse than Rent's mark of +1. Jason Bartlett, a shortstop that I had wanted the Giants to go after, had a net gain of +21, markedly better.

Again, if you like obscure yet important statistics like this, I highly recommend that you get the Bill James 2011 Handbook.

Rowand for Fukudome

According to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, the Giants and Cubs discussed an Aaron Rowand - Kosuke Fukudome swap. While it's a long shot at this point, it would certainly benefit the Giants.

Propelled by a career-low .263 BABIP, Rowand put up his worst season in 2010, posting a slash line of .230/.281/.378; While he's due to regress to a more respectable line in 2011, he doesn't have the one thing Fukudome has -- an exceptional walk rate.

In spite of a career-low .287 BABIP, Fukudome put up a respectable line of .263/.371/.439; That's the kind of plate discipline the Giants need. Guys who get on base 37% of the time -- and keep in mind that it was an off-year for Fukudome -- are rare.

In addition, Fukudome's contract is nicer. He's got one year and $13.5MM left on his contract, whereas Rowand has another two years at $12MM/year. The extra $1.5MM is absolutely worth it, considering that it would free up that spot in the payroll a year in advance.

Also, Fukudome gives the Giants a more powerful lefty bat off the bench; power which Travis Ishikawa, Nate Schierholtz, and Mike Fontenot fail to supply.

It's probably not going to happen, but I'd be happy if it did.

Notes...

Apologies for the relative inactivity lately...in my defense, though, the Giants have been relatively inactive lately...

• The Giants aren't interested in Johnny Damon or Rick Ankiel. Frankly, I would hope so. As long as they have Andres Torres, Aaron Rowand, Nate Schierholtz, Cody Ross, and Pat Burrell, they don't need another outfielder. 
• The Giants have strong interest in Andrew Miller. He'd certainly be an interesting "reclamation project," although it didn't end up working with Dontrelle Willis. I don't know where he'd fit in to the Giants' picture, but I'm a fan of the low-risk high-reward deals. 
• Brian Sabean said the Giants' payroll could reach $120MM in 2011. This doesn't particularly surprise me...The Giants had a payroll of around $100MM for 2010, so taking into account the fact that they won the World Series, one would expect them to be in the $110MM-$120MM range. 
• Freddy Sanchez will undergo yet another surgery. He should be ready for the season-opener, according to Dave Groeschner, but we'll wait and see. At least the Giants only have to deal with Sanchez's injuries for one more year...

More Offseason Talk....

Andrew Baggarly, San Jose Mercury News beat-writer notes:

A lot of folks might assume the Giants are no longer interested in trading for Jason Bartlett, or to a lesser extent, J.J. Hardy and Marco Scutaro. Don’t be so sure of that yet. Remember, the front office has threatened Sandoval with a demotion to Triple-A Fresno to start the year if he doesn’t make progress in his conditioning this offseason. You can’t make a threat like that without having alternatives on the roster, and considering how important defense will be to their pitching-centric club, Tejada is a better fit at third base, anyway.

Well, it's not the case. As recently noted by none other than Andrew Baggarly, the Giants aren't in on Bartlett. He says, "Now I'm hearing Giants are out on a Jason Bartlett trade. They had $5-7 million budgeted for a starting SS and spent it on Tejada." So we're back to square one. The Giants will need shortstop depth. I just don't think Emmanuel Burriss is a decent backup shortstop. And Brandon Crawford just isn't ready...


I suppose it's a good thing that Tejada was acquired to be a starting shortstop (rather than a backup plan at third base), in that it actually somewhat justified his $6.5MM contract. But this means the Giants are still lacking depth at short, and not seeking to fix that with a Hardy, Scutaro, or a Bartlett. Unless of course, they tender Mike Fontenot a contract. I guess I could see him as a backup shortstop. He produced negative WAR with the Giants in 2010, and I've never been too fond of him (he doesn't stand out in any categories: speed, defense, average, power), but as a backup shortstop, I suppose he'll do.

I'm curious as to what the Giants' next moves are...do they need another outfield reserve, like Pat Burrell? Or is it enough to have Aaron Rowand, Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Nate Schierholtz, and Aubrey Huff?

For the price I'm not interested, but Lance Berkman is intriguing. He wants to play outfield or first base, both of which, I suppose he would add depth to (although the Giants are really not in need of a first-baseman). With a resurgence of the bat, he would be the new-and-improved Pat the Bat. Seriously. He takes walks, he has Burrell-like power, and he's a switch hitter. With dedication to fitness, he'd be as good as Burrell in the outfield. But again, too much money, aging, and there's the injury risk. An intriguing name for discussion, though, I suppose...thoughts?

Are the Giants going to get a Matt Stairs? A hitter whose primary, and pretty much only role is to be the pinch-hitter? That was the goal with Burrell, but he sort of forced his way into the starting lineup. I wonder if the Giants will try to get this. Maybe Russell Branyan or a Mike Sweeney? Probably not, though. They have an excess of position players, with Whiteside, Burriss, Rowand, Schierholtz, Ishikawa, and possibly Fontenot.

My guess at the starters for 2011:
C Posey
1B Huff
2B Sanchez
SS Tejada
3B Sandoval
LF DeRosa
CF Torres
RF Ross

So, I think the Giants are pretty much done with their offseason shopping. Some possible bench bats...names for discussion: Branyan, Sweeney, Berkman, any others? I'm interested to hear what your thoughts are...

The Great Nate Debate

Guest post by Zachary Chiang.

Everyone knows that Buster Posey is a very talented young player. Another article praising his offensive prowess, defensive instinct, and unheralded leadership would simply be redundant. His highly anticipated debut did not disappoint, and his overall performance went above and beyond expectations. In the wake of the rookie catcher's amazing season, it is important to remember that not every transition to the big leagues is quite as smooth as his. Let's take a look at one of the quiet contributors to the Giants' championship run.

At this point in his young career, Nate Schierholtz is best known for his brutal collision with the Chinese catcher in the '08 Beijing Olympics. Once thought to be the right fielder of the future, the Danville native was denied regular playing time with the big league club even after hitting .320/.363/.594 with 18 HRs in 93 games at the AAA level. While most Giants fans hold Nate's defensive skills in high regard, many seem to have varying opinions of his offensive ability. Some see him as a slap hitter with value only as a fourth outfielder, while others believe his star potential has been stunted by his limited playing time. Realistically, if Nate became more consistent, he would be a solid hitter, similar to David DeJesus.

A look at Nate's stats year by year turns up unimpressive results, but even with an abyssal line of .242/.311/.366 in 2010, there are bright spots to be picked out. Back on May 6th, he peaked out at .381/.458/.587 with a stellar 3 for 4 day. In June of '09, he hit .375 and people wanted to install him as high as third in the order. Even in his impressive '08 call up, he produced 1.2 WAR by pounding out 10 extra base hits in a mere 19-game stretch. With respect to small sample size, it is obvious that Nate is prone to streakiness. There are several months in which he hit under .200 with no sign of power whatsoever. However, it is appalling to think that the Giants could not find him regular playing time during their mediocre '07 and '08 seasons. Who knows what he could have accomplished as a regular the last three or four years?

Next year, Andres Torres and Cody Ross are locked into starting outfield roles. If Schierholtz were to land the last spot, Ross would be shifted to left as he was in the playoffs. Unfortunately, this scenario seems to be very improbable. Mark DeRosa will be back, and possibly return to left field. Aaron Rowand may have accepted a bench role this year, but it seems unlikely that he'll start the year there. Lastly, there still is the possibility of re-signing veteran leader Pat Burrell or picking up another free agent outfielder. As usual, 2011 will be an uphill battle for Nate. He must show management that he can play not only as well, but better than the veterans who will continue to block his way.

Do you have a strong opinion on Nate Schierholtz? We encourage you to comment below.

Should the Giants Re-sign Pat Burrell?

Should the Giants re-sign Pat Burrell? As of now, they have the following five players that can man the outfield:

• Cody Ross
• Andres Torres
• Aaron Rowand
• Nate Schierholtz
• Mark DeRosa

With such a crowded outfield, is there room for Burrell?

In 96 games with the Giants, he put up a .266/.364/.509 slash line, and hit 18 home runs. Among the San Francisco Giants, he had the second-highest OBP behind Aubrey Huff's .385, and his OPS+ of 132 was also second-best on the team, behind Huff's 138. The two benefits that Burrell brings are as follows:

1. Plate Discipline...Burrell's walk rate of 13.8% was easily tops among the Giants, and he and Huff were the only two Giants with double-digit walk rates. How important is walk rate? Well, consider this. The Giants ranked in the bottom ten in the majors in walk rate for 2010; in other words, they need players with plate discipline, because they are quite lacking in that category. Before they had Huff and Burrell, their offense had mighty struggles because none of their players could take a walk. Because free-swinging Bengie Molina left, and Pablo Sandoval was no longer the big bat in the middle of the lineup, the Giants were able to create a balanced cast of players (especially thanks to Burrell and Huff) that could guide them to the playoffs.

Keep this in mind: The Giants were the only team in the bottom-ten in the majors in walk rate that made it to the playoffs. Astros didn't make it. Orioles didn't make it. Royals, White Sox, Angels, Mariners, Pirates, Blue Jays, Cubs did not make it. So, what to take from this? The Giants are in need of players who can walk. And in that category, Burrell is quite adequate.

2. Power...Burrell's 18 home runs were tied for third-best on the Giants. His SLG of .509 was the best on the team, and although it's a small sample size (341 plate appearances), his ISO of .242 indicates that he has great power. In 2009, the Giants did not have a Huff. They did not have a Posey. And they did not have a Burrell. Burrell was one of the major bats in the lineup that drove the Giants' offense to a World Series title by virtue of his ability to crush the ball.

The Giants aren't desperate in this category. They've got Posey, Sandoval might rediscover his 2009 power bat, Torres has a little pop, Huff could be brought back, Uribe could be brought back. Burrell's power isn't a necessity, but it's surely nice to have.

Ah, but every rose has its thorns. Burrell does have two major perceived flaws:

1. High K rate...Burrell's strikeout rate of 26.6% was the second-worst on the team behind Eli Whiteside. And surely, his dreadful World Series in which he batted .000 and struck out 11 times in 13 at-bats, is not forgotten. If he's supposed to be a big bat in the middle of the order, the way I see it, he needs to make contact a little more often.

2. Defense...the defensive merits of Burrell are hard to get a full grasp on, merely because he hasn't played a full season in the outfield since 2008. What is a sure fact, however, is that advanced defensive metrics haven't been too kind to Burrell throughout his career. Since 2002, he's cost his teams about 40 runs on defense (based on UZR). His arm is average, however, and especially adequate for a left-fielder.

Quite lacking, however, is Burrell in his ability to cover range. In 2006-2008, his range (or lack thereof) cost the Phillies 44.5 runs (based on RngR). Having seen Burrell run, it's not hard to understand that he can't cover much range out in left field.


So what to take from all of this?

On the offensive side, I feel like Pat Burrell is a less-extreme version of Mark Reynolds. He's got power, walks a lot, and strikes out a lot.

On the defensive side, he's nothing special. The Giants, however, could work around that flaw. They could give Burrell the same treatment they did this year, taking him out for later-inning defensive improvement. Also, if he was to be used as a pinch hitter, the Giants wouldn't have to deal with his mediocre defense. That was, after all, the original intention when he was acquired. I don't think he wants to turn into Matt Stairs at the age of 34, though.

The big looming question is, how much will Burrell want? Based on his WAR, his performance with the Giants in 2010 was worth about $11MM. After seeing his bat disintegrate in the World Series, however, I have lost confidence in the belief that he's back to being an impact bat.

I think the Giants should just play it safe. I think they should give Burrell a small contract (like Huff's 1yr/$3MM deal) to be a pinch-hitter and occasional left-fielder (an outfield reserve). And if all goes well, he'll force himself into a starting outfield spot as he did in 2010. If he's not willing to take such a small contract, he's not worth it. He's too risky at this point. I wouldn't want to see that World Series Pat Burrell struggle at the plate day after day in 2011 and receive ten million dollars for those services. That risk is just too eminent.

After all, how did the Giants enjoy so much success in 2010? The bargain contracts that outweighed their horrible contracts. Torres, Huff, Posey, Bumgarner etc. all played top-notch baseball on cheap contracts. That's how this team is going to need to build success around Rowand's 5yr/$60MM contract and Zito's 7yr/$126MM contract.

Yes, this is rather cruel. Pat the Bat did a lot to help the Giants bring home their first-ever World Series title since moving to San Francisco. But in order to succeed, they need to minimize risk. And I see Burrell as a mighty risk, given his bat's propensity for rapid-aging.

Andrew Baggarly - "Bringing back Pat Burrell is a matter the Giants are discussing right now. I know Bochy loves Burrell’s clubhouse presence, but he’d likely be in a reserve role."

WS Game Four Recap

Let me start by saying I was wrong. Travis Ishikawa and Nate Schierholtz didn't have great games. They were a combined 0 for 7. For what it's worth, though, Schierholtz was nabbed of an RBI single by a great Josh Hamilton catch. And, surely, they played a role in Madison Bumgarner's eight-inning three-hit gem. They were solid on defense. Lastly, maybe playing Ishikawa allowed Aubrey Huff to focus on his offense and hit that two-run homer. At the very least, it allowed the Giants to have Huff's bat without the defensive inconsistency he brings (he's a solid defender usually, but is prone to errors).

I was wrong, though. Whatever...Giants won!

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Now, on to the good stuff...Madison K Bumgarner: youngest pitcher ever to win a postseason game for the Giants; youngest pitcher ever to start a World Series game for the Giants; fifth youngest pitcher ever to start a World Series game; Fourth youngest pitcher ever to win a World Series game.

That was the stuff of legends. Eight innings, three hits, two walks, six strikeouts. One Ranger reached second base, and that was only due to an error by Juan Uribe.

Bumgarner achieved a game score of 80. That's the highest game score achieved by a Giant in a World Series since Jack Sanford achieved an 84 in Game Two of the 1962 World Series. That's also the highest game score achieved by a left-handed starter for the Giants in a World Series since Carl Hubbell in Game Four of the 1933 World Series.

He's the youngest left-handed pitcher in history to toss eight or more shutout innings in a World Series start.

From ESPN:

"The Giants are the 5th team in the last 35 years to throw a shutout while allowing only 3 or fewer singles (and no extra-base hits) in a World Series game. Each of the 5 teams are NL teams, and they all went on to win the World Series."

"Buster Posey becomes the 7th catcher in World Series history to hit a home run while catching a shutout."

"The Giants now have 4 shutouts this postseason. That ties the 1998 Yankees and 1905 New York Giants for the most in a single postseason in major-league history."

Best rookie battery in history. Mr. Bumgarner and Mr. Posey. The Bumgarner Battery. The Posey Posse. Hmm...my logo is ingenious. Props to the designer, Zachary Chiang.

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How great is it that the three Giants to drive in runs in this game (Aubrey Huff, Buster Posey, Andres Torres) were the three best offensive players this year for the Giants? Huff had a two-run blast off of Tommy Hunter. Posey had a solo shot to dead center. Andres Torres knocked in a run with an RBI double. It was frustrating when these guys, who have carried this team all year, were struggling at various times during the postseason. They're locked in now.

Why couldn't Edgar Renteria do this during the regular season (besides, of course, the first week)? Three singles and a run scored. I certainly didn't see this one coming.

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I was right about one thing. Madison Bumgarner is much, much, much better than Tommy Hunter. Hunter lasted four innings, allowing two earned runs. He threw a total of 83 pitches though. Bumgarner went twice as many innings, throwing 106 pitches.

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All the Giants need to do is avoid a three-game losing streak. That's it. And then they're World Champions. They have the upper hand in a lot of ways. They have home-field advantage for two of the next three games. Their bullpen is more rested (Rangers used five pitchers in Game Four). And they have the psychological advantage for tomorrow -- their starter beat the Rangers' starter (Tim Lincecum beat Cliff Lee) in Game One.

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October is over, and with it goes Rosstober. Cody Ross' hit streak came to a halt in Game Four. It's disappointing, but he'll definitely put together several more streaks in 2011. So now comes the question? What will next month be -- Posember, Huffember, Torresember, Lincenember? We'll just have to wait and see...

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Pat Burrell's playing tomorrow. I'm not personally expecting much, but I'm hoping for a lot. One day of rest can do wonders.

Travis Ishikawa and Nate Schierholtz

I hereby accept all credit if Travis Ishikawa and Nate Schierholtz do well in Game Four. I've been wanting them to play because of their defensive value, and the fact that they are capable of doing things with the stick.

Similarly, I'll accept the blame if they don't.

WS Game Three Recap

Jonathan Sanchez was rough: 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 HR, 4 BB, 3 K. The big blow was a second-inning three-run blast by Mitch Moreland, who was batting in the nine-hole. It's funny because going into this series, that's the person I would've picked to watch out for. I knew very little about him, except that he could work the count, and that he was good enough to be a starting first baseman for a team playing in the World Series. Why in this case? It's always the one you least suspect -- he was batting ninth. Anyway...I didn't expect much out of Sanchez going into this game for several reasons:

1. He was coming off of a bad start
2. Pitching on the road
3. Pitching in a hitters ballpark
4. Facing a lot of right-handed hitters
5. The Rangers have a good running game, so it doesn't help that Sanchez walks a lot of hitters
6. Sanchez isn't great at controlling the running game

He did poorly, but the two home runs he allowed were to left-handed hitters. The walks cost him though. Bengie Molina, who was walked in the second inning, scored on the Moreland homer and a walk issued to Vladimir Guerrero marked the end of Sanchez's night. It's scary to think that this could potentially be the Game Seven starter in the World Series. You never know what to expect with him.

Colby Lewis, on the other hand, was remarkable: 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K. He was just masterful in terms of hitting the corners, and the Giants couldn't do anything. The lone mistakes were solo home runs allowed to Andres Torres, and yes, you guessed it, Cody Ross.

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Jonathan Sanchez aside, the one player that sticks out in this game is Pat Burrell. He is scuffling right now. He went 0 for 4 with four strikeouts. At what point do you start playing someone else out there in left field? This is the World Series, after all, so hesitation could be very costly. The way I see it, he's in there for two reasons: he walks, and he hits bombs...but he's .158 in the postseason overall, with 19 strikeouts in 38 at-bats. His performance in the World Series is even worse, as he's gone 0 for 9 with eight strikeouts. To his credit, he does have two walks. But if he can't get a hit tomorrow, I don't want to be seeing him in Game Five, against Cliff Lee, who already silenced Burrell's bat in Game One. Tommy Hunter isn't a great pitcher. He shall be a good test of Burrell's bat. If Pat the Bat can't get anything done in Game Four, sit him. His defensive incompetence is already enough of a liability. They don't need his bat to be costing them games (not that they lost Game Three just because of him).

Is anybody open to the idea of Nate Schierholtz possibly starting in Game Five? It would solidify the Giants' defense (I can think of few outfield defenses that are better than Ross/Torres/Schierholtz) and he's a career .354 hitter against left-handers (he would face Lee). Not to mention, he's 1 for 1 with a walk and an RBI single in the World Series thus far. Just an idea. All I know is, solid defense can make the difference between a win and a loss. The way Burrell's playing right now, I want Nate out there.


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DHing Pablo Sandoval didn't work. He went 0 for 3 with a strikeout and a double play. With a right-hander on the mound, I would like to see Travis Ishikawa at first base with Aubrey Huff as the DH. Better defense, better offense. Sounds like an improvement to me.

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No worries here. Giants just need to win one of the next two games. Game Four is a matchup between Madison Bumgarner and Tommy Hunter, and frankly, Bumgarner's a much better pitcher. Game Five is Cliff Lee, pitching in Texas (where he has a 5.00+ ERA in his career), against the team that destroyed him in Game One. I think the Giants have a good chance of winning one of those games...This way they return home with a 3-2 series lead, and only need to win one of the two games at home in order to win the World Series. Oh yeah, and Matt Cain will be on the mound in Game Six. Can we win Game Six? Yes we Cain. Oh, do I get joy out of saying that.

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Here's yet another SF Giants song. This one's by DJ E-Rock:

WS Game Two Recap

Matt Cain has been the Giants' best starter this year. I said this same exact thing on September 30, and it still rings true. In the postseason, he's been as good as...ever. He's looking like a legendary pitcher. Want some proof?

He's gone three consecutive postseason starts with 6+ IP and 0 ER allowed. This has been done by only six other pitchers in the history of baseball:

Rk		Strk Start	End	Games	IP	ER
1	Kenny Rogers	2006-10-06	2006-10-22	3	23.0	0
2	Burt Hooton	1981-10-13	1981-10-21	3	20.2	0
3	Jon Matlack	1973-10-07	1973-10-17	3	23.0	0
4	Whitey Ford	1960-10-08	1961-10-04	3	27.0	0
5	Waite Hoyt	1921-10-06	1921-10-13	3	27.0	0
6	Christy Mathewson	1905-10-09	1905-10-14	3	27.0	0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/28/2010.

Whitey Ford and Christy Mathewson? If you ask me, that's some pretty good company.

His 2010 postseason ERA is a perfect 0.00...he's allowed just 13 hits in 21.1 innings thus far. He's struck out 13. Cliff Lee, who's been proclaimed one of the greatest postseason pitchers of all time, has an ERA of 2.51 in the 2010 playoffs.

His WS Gm 2 line: 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 K, 2 BB. The strikeout numbers weren't impressive, and he got a little help from the defense (Nate Schierholtz, for example), but he certainly didn't disappoint. He was able to induce popouts to shut down the Rangers.

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Edgar Renteria and Aaron Rowand combined for five RBIs and three runs. They've been criticized, scrutinized, disparaged the entire season for injury-marred sub-par offensive seasons. They were overpaid (Renteria is making $9MM this year and Rowand is making $13MM this year), but they've come out and done the job when it's mattered most -- in the World Series. Rowand is batting .375 this postseason (8 AB) with a couple of runs and a couple of RBIs. Renteria has batted just .240 but he's played solid defense and scored five runs.

Were they grossly overpaid? Yes, of course. But they're proving that they aren't worthless. They can contribute, even on the big stage.

This team was built around veterans. Those are the kinds of players Bruce Bochy and Brian Sabean love -- ones with experience. They have Huff, Sanchez, Uribe, Renteria, Ross, Rowand, and Burrell as veteran position players, all players with veteran experience (especially Huff, Burrell, and Renteria). Renteria has logged over 60 postseason games in his career. Maybe that's having a positive impact. Maybe -- just maybe -- it wasn't such a bad idea to build this team based on the philosophy that experience is ideal. It certainly seems to be playing a role in these postseason games.

As far as Rent and Rowand go, this will go down as one of their best (if not the best) games they've had in a Giants uni'. There was the home opener, in which Renteria hit a ninth-inning game-tying shot off of Billy Wagner and Rowand got the walkoff single. There was the game in '09 (I believe August 30) in which Edgar Renteria hit a grand slam to give the Giants a 6-5 lead over the Colorado Rockies. Today's game tops their best moments as Giants.

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This has been almost too easy. The Giants have scored 20 runs in their last two games. These are World Series games, though. This is supposed to be top-notch baseball, fierce, tight, tense competition between the best in the game. The Rangers have failed to match the Giants' level of play. It seems to all be coming down to the thing the analysts blatantly ignored: the bullpen. When choosing the Giants as underdogs in each postseason series, the media has sized up the Giants' offense as weak, and therefore come to the conclusion that the other team was better. They've been overlooking the bullpens, though. The Giants used relievers for seven scoreless innings to win NLCS Game 6, the pennant-clincher. Does any other postseason team have the bullpen depth to have done that? I seriously doubt it. The Rangers' bullpen has allowed 11 earned runs over the last two games. The Giants' bullpen? Three earned runs.

Derek Holland walked three Giants on 13 pitches. I can't honestly think of a Giants pitcher that would do that. I doubt Bruce Bochy would let a Giants reliever walk three consecutive batters. These games have been handed to us.

It's almost sad, because there's been very little torture. Finally, the pieces have come together. Everybody is hitting...there was always the potential in every Giants bat -- from Torres to Renteria (yes, Renteria has always had potential). Finally, this potential has come to fruition, all at once.

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These next three games are looking good.
Game Three: Colby Lewis is a flyball pitcher, and he'll be pitching in a hitters park, The Ballpark in Arlington. Although his home/road splits don't show it, I think the Giants will benefit from the longball in this game.

Game Four: Madison Bumgarner is a much, much, much better pitcher than Tommy Hunter. 'nough said.

Game Five: Cliff Lee. The Giants have gained a psychological advantage over him after destroying him in Game One. Throw in the fact that Lee has a career 5.07 ERA pitching in Texas and you have a good outlook.

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Bruce Bochy is showing that he is a good manager. At the end of the regular season, I would've been outraged at the notion of him winning Manager of the Year. I found Bud Black to be much more competent. But Bochy once again made critical, intelligent decisions. He brought in Nate Schierholtz in the seventh inning as a defensive replacement, and Nate promptly made a great catch. His decision to bring in Javier Lopez in the eighth inning with two outs to face Josh Hamilton worked out well too.

And...his decision to throw Lincecum in Game One and Cain in Game Two was highly successful.

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Ross extended his hit streak to nine games. He's moving up on the list of top Giants postseason hit streaks. I'll post the stat table tomorrow.

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TWO MORE WINS.

The Giants: DH Options

There was a very good article on Fangraphs (by Dave Cameron) about the Giants DH options.

Basically, the Giants will have to face a minimum of two leftys in their three games in Texas. They'll face CJ Wilson in Game Three, and Cliff Lee in Game Five, and they might (although I doubt it) face the lefty Derek Holland in Game Four. That means, ideally, their DH would be able to hit left-handed pitching.

Dave Cameron proposes four options in his article:

1. DH Pablo Sandoval. This could work...Sandoval has a good power bat, and the Giants would certainly benefit from having a different guy manning third base. The clear problem here, however, is that he hasn't hit well against left-handed pitchers this year. He's batted just .227 with one home run from the right side in 2010.

2. DH Pat Burrell. Put Aaron Rowand in the outfield. This is not an option that I am very enthusiastic about. Pat Burrell has never had success in his career as a DH (you might remember that he was designated for assignment earlier this year, after doing a terrible job as the Tampa Bay Rays DH). As Dave Cameron points out, he’s a career .209/.306/.348 hitter when not playing the field." I don't think it would be fair to put Burrell in a position that he's uncomfortable with, especially if it's being done merely so the Giants can fit Rowand's bat into the lineup. Even if the Giants did DH Pat Burrell, I would prefer that they use Nate Schierholtz in the outfield. They'd have better defense, speed, and Schierholtz actually has hit leftys well in his career (.354/.390/.500). <--- that's no mistake. He's seriously been that good against LHP, although it is bloated quite a bit by luck (.414 BABIP vs. LHP in his career).

3. DH Aubrey Huff. Put Travis Ishikawa at first base. This is an attractive option from a defensive standpoint...not that Huff is a bad defender. Ishikawa is top-notch though. The problem here is quite obvious, and it's the fact that Travis Ishikawa is a left-handed hitter. He has not had much success against LHP in his career,  with a .230/.288/.246 slash line. In these one-run games, though, defense is quite important. His glove certainly outweighs his lack of offensive ability.

4. DH Jose Guillen. I don't think there's any reason this should be done whatsoever. I don't care that Jose Guillen is a right-handed hitter. He's old, slow, hasn't played in weeks, and his bat isn't even good -- he strikes out a lot, rarely walks, and doesn't hit with much power. So no. This is not an option. I doubt he'll even make the World Series roster.

So what's the best option? In Game Four, if Tommy Hunter pitches, DH Aubrey Huff and put Travis Ishikawa at first base. The Giants will benefit both defensively and offensively, as Travis Ishikawa is a good defender and can hit right-handed pitching well. In Game Three, I'm fine with trying Pat Burrell. I suppose putting Aaron Rowand in the outfield might work, as he is a right-handed hitter, and would benefit from the fact that the Rangers stadium is a hitters park. If DHing Burrell doesn't work, then the Sandoval option can be attempted for Game Five. When in doubt though, go with what will help the team defensively. Ask Brooks Conrad. Ask Chase Utley. Ask anyone that's played in the postseason so far. Defense has made a huge impact in these tight games, and I would hate to see the Giants lose because Aubrey Huff bobbles a ball, Pat Burrell can't get to a ball in time, or Pablo Sandoval overthrows first base.

The options aren't great. I think they just need to go with what's working. If someone's hot in Games One and Two, don't stop playing them...

Killing the Time

In anticipation of the World Series, here are several poorly-made photoshops...don't worry. I'll keep 'em coming. FEEL FREE TO SEND IN YOUR OWN SF-TEX PHOTOSHOPS to blog@splashingpumpkins.com!

Tim Lincecum and Josh Hamilton

Pat Burrell and Cliff Lee

Bengie Molina and Nate Schierholtz

Freddy Sanchez chewin' on some Colby Lewis

Brian Wilson and Elvis Andrus

NLCS Game One Recap

Looks like Doctober ended a little early...

Giants with multi-homer postseason games (before today):

Player	Date	Series	Gm#	Tm	Opp	HR
Cody Ross	2010-10-16	NLCS	1	SFG	PHI	2
Jeff Kent	2002-10-24	WS	5	SFG	ANA	2
Rich Aurilia	2002-10-10	NLCS	2	SFG	STL	2
Jeff Kent	1997-10-03	NLDS	3	SFG	FLA	2
Will Clark	1989-10-04	NLCS	1	SFG	CHC	2
Benny Kauff	1917-10-11	WS	4	NYG	CHW	2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/17/2010.

Welcome to the club, Cody Ross.

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Game Summary:

In the third inning, Cody Ross turned on a low-and-inside pitch, knocking it into the left-field stands for a solo home run.

Carlos Ruiz quickly answered in the bottom half of the third, hitting a "just-enough" solo home run to right to tie the game.

In the fourth, Juan Uribe grounded into a fielder's choice with runners on the corners and two outs to end the inning.

In the fifth, Cody Ross hit yet another solo shot...on basically the same pitch, to the same part of the ballpark.

In the sixth, Buster Posey scored on a Pat Burrell double. Nate Schierholtz pinch ran for Pat Burrell, and scored on a Juan Uribe single up the middle.

In the bottom of the inning, Jayson Werth hit a two-run homer (another cheap-y to right field) to make the score 4-3 in the Giants' favor.

The Giants would go onto win the game, thanks to solid relief by Javier Lopez (retired the only two batters he faced: Chase Utley and Ryan Howard) and Brian Wilson (allowed one baserunner in 1.1 innings, while striking out four).

And with that, the Giants effectively disproved the ignorant analysts who figured the Phillies would sweep, probably took a toll on Roy Halladay's confidence -- which was likely at an all-time high coming off of a postseason no-hitter, and set themselves up in prime position for the next few games. It's important to win at least one game in each road set. They needed to win at least one of the first two in Philly. And they'll need to win at least one of the final two in Philly (if those two are played). They can succeed at home, where the Phillies' cheap home runs are merely flyouts.

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I've been thinking this all along, although it hasn't really been talked about much -- at least, what I've heard about the NLCS. Javier Lopez is going to be key. He'll face the big stars -- Utley, Howard, Ibanez...and even other good Phillies hitters aren't RHH (i.e. Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino, who are switch hitters). That leaves Jayson Werth as the only major right-handed threat. So...Lopez is very important. And the Phillies' lineup works in the Giants' favor. Utley and Howard bat back-to-back, so JLo (yes...people have started calling him this) can come in, face the big two lefties for the Giants, and make way for Brian Wilson to come in and work his magic to finish off the game. They might not even need a setup man against this lineup, if it works out that Utley and Howard keep coming up around the eighth/ninth inning. 

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Starting Mike Fontenot at third is a good decision. Pablo Sandoval is a considerable threat at Citizens Bank Park against Brad Lidge, especially in a pressure situation, where he needs to throw strikes. Thus, Fontenot can play throughout the game, give the Giants solid defense and decent speed on the basepaths...and Pablo is available off the bench. It works well this way. Fontenot had a nice stolen base in the ninth inning, although it ultimately didn't amount to anything. 

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Bruce Bochy's managing is often criticized, but he made one key decision (although they were nothing spectacularly creative/brilliant). He pinch ran for Pat Burrell in the sixth inning, which allowed the Giants to score their fourth run of the ballgame when Uribe singled up the middle. If Pat Burrell had been running, he probably wouldn't have scored...that game could have gone into extras. This move would have been highly criticized if Pat Burrell's spot came up in the lineup, and Schierholtz failed to do something. But that run was the difference in the game...and the Giants wouldn't have scored it had Bochy not made the decision to pinch run.

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Solid outing by Lincecum. He was hit hard, especially at the beginning of the game, but ultimately delivered. The eight strikeouts probably helped...7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 HR, 8 K, 3 BB. He also became the first Giant in postseason history to go two consecutive starts with 8+ K. I'll put up the chart of these streaks eventually (if I remember). One Giant, Jesse Barnes back in 1921, went two consecutive starts with 7+ K. 

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Note to Freddy Sanchez/Andres Torres: Now would be a good time to start hitting.

...but, the Giants manage to score enough runs. As long as the pitching's there, they'll have enough of an offense to support it. And that's how they keep winning.

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Just found this on eBay. 

Seriously?