Down in the Minors: 4/30/11

A look at what's going on in the San Francisco Giants' farm system...

Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects of 2011

Today, Keith Law released his prospect rankings. An insider account is required to view them, but Brandon Belt made the list at 17, and Zach Wheeler came in at 36 (h/t 8th Inning Weirdness). Law also released his Giants top ten, and here's the list:

1. Brandon Belt, 1B
2. Zach Wheeler, SP
3. Gary Brown, OF
4. Francisco Peguero, CF
5. Charlie Culberson, 2B
6. Thomas Neal, OF
7. Ehire Adrianza, SS
8. Eric Surkamp, LHP
9. Heath Hembree, RHP
10. Tommy Joseph, C

LINK: Baseball America - SF Giants Top Ten Prospects

1. Brandon Belt, 1b
2. Zack Wheeler, rhp
3. Gary Brown, of
4. Francisco Peguero, of
5. Ehire Adrianza, ss
6. Brandon Crawford, ss
7. Thomas Neal, of
8. Charlie Culberson, 2b
9. Eric Surkamp, lhp
10. Tommy Joseph, c/1b

Peek at the Prospects: Francisco Peguero

Francisco Peguero

Position: OF
Opening Day Age: 22
John Sickels' Grade: B-
Fangraphs Estimated Peak WAR: 4.5
ZiPS Projection: .292/.315/.400

I am going to be perfectly honest here. Peguero scares me, and that's not a good thing. In spite of his blazing speed, there are two reasons I am worried about him. The first reason is his BABIP. In high-A in 2010, he hit .329, which is an outstanding mark. However, it was propelled by a .382 BABIP, which is rather high. In spite of his speed, which would explain the high BABIP, it is very possible that this mark will regress, especially at the major league level. With it, his batting average, the only nice part about his slash line, will decline. The second reason I am very worried about him is that his walk rate is nauseating. In high-A in 2010, he walked at a whopping rate of 3.3%. A 3.3% walk rate would rank as the second-worst mark in the majors in 2010. Peguero's a speedy guy, with 40 stolen bases in 122 games in 2010, so in order to maximize his value, he needs to get on base. The plate discipline he's shown is simply unacceptable. 

On a more positive note, he is highly touted for a reason, and his fantastic speed is very refreshing to see in the Giants' farm system. Along with Ehire Adrianza and Gary Brown, he could help to shape a new era in which the Giants aren't incredibly slow, but are instead fast. Speed is a skill the Giants seem to have neglected in recent years, but it can be important, as we've seen it significantly contribute to the success of some major league teams -- notably the Rays and the Rangers. 

This John Sickels quote pretty much sums up Peguero: "If he doesn't hit .300+ at higher levels he'll have a problem, although his tools will get him to the majors and keep him there for some time."

His offense has some inherent flaws, but with the speed he has, he could easily enjoy success on a major league level. 

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Other posts in the PatP series:

• Brandon Belt

Peek at the Prospects: Brandon Belt

The internet is rife with analysis on the Giants' top prospects -- most notably Fangraphs and Minor League Ball. On January 26, Baseball America will release their San Francisco Giants Top Ten Prospects Scouting Reports. Leading up to that, I thought I'd take a peek at various Giants prospects, referencing the analysis from Fangraphs, Minor League Ball, and the Giants 2011 ZiPS projections. For now, I plan on looking at the following players (in no particular order):

• Brandon Belt
• Francisco Peguero
• Ehire Adrianza
• Zach Wheeler
• Thomas Neal
• Eric Surkamp
• Brandon Crawford
• Gary Brown
• Jarrett Parker
• Charlie Culberson

It's very possible that I'll expand the list, however, and look at others like Hector Sanchez, Jorge Bucardo, Chuckie Jones, etc.

Without further ado, I'll begin with the guy at the top of every Giants prospect list....Brandon Belt. 

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Brandon Belt

Position: 1B

Opening Day Age: 22

John Sickels' Grade: A-

Fangraphs Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5

ZiPS Projection: .266/.357/.440

Belt is the cream of the crop when it comes to the Giants' farm system. He rapidly rose through the Giants' minor league system last year, raking to the tune of .352/.455/.620 slash line in A, AA, and AAA combined. Thanks to mechanical adjustments in his plate approach, the 2009 fifth-rounder was able to display a combination of excellent plate discipline, contact skills, and power. He even stole 22 bases last season; make no mistake, though -- as Marc Hulet of Fangraphs notes, "he succeeded on the base paths due to smart base running as opposed to blazing speed." Belt is the real deal, and should be ready to make an impact in the majors right away in 2011.

I think the following comments speak for themselves...

"Oh yeah, ZiPS loves Brandon Belt and at least in the short term has him as the best 1B prospect in baseball." - Dan Szymborski

"Totally legitimate in my opinion, and second-only to Eric Hosmer among first base prospects." - John Sickels

I've even admittedly gotten caught up in the hype, as I've already launched a Facebook fan page entitled "Brandon Belt: 2011 Rookie of the Year"

For more on Belt, check out his interview with Mychael Urban.

Fangraphs: San Francisco Giants Top 10 Prospects

For the most part, very excited about these guys. Many of them have issues they need to work through (Wheeler's BB/9, Peguero's BB rate, Brown's bat), but they all have good potential.

Giants to Sign Gary Brown for $1.3 Million

He batted .438 with 32 SB in 50 games this year.

The Giants have agreed to sign CF Gary Brown - who was selected 24th overall in the 2010 MLB draft - for $1.3 million.

According to scouting reports, his hitting style is unorthodox and not his best facet. He doesn't have much power, but has more than would be expected. He has improved his fielding, and has the potential to be a good baserunner. His great strength is his speed. He is very fast.

His hitting will be the big question going forward - will he be able to adjust to professional pitching?

Here's his scouting report:

Power - 53
Batting - 66
Speed - 98
Contact - 80
Patience - 30

He doesn't have too many home runs, but he had 20 doubles in 50 games in 2010, so his power is not non-existent. I'll wait and see how he does in the minors before making any assumptions about how good he'll be.