Ten Questions with Andrew J. Martin of Purple Row

Last week I did Ten Questions Q&A with Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness, and we got fantastic insight into the Los Angeles Dodgers. This week, the series continues with Andrew J. Martin, managing editor of Purple Row, a Colorado Rockies blog. I'm very pleased to say that once again we got great insight...

1. First of all, what are your thoughts on the extensions given to Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki?

Tulowitzki is basically the new Helton, except the contract almost makes more sense. It makes him a lifetime Rockie, but at a far more premium defensive position. But the big difference is that when a 1B loses range in the NL, they can move to.....1B. When a SS loses range, you can move him to 3B (esp with Tulo's arm) or any other number of positions (who knows, LF Tulowitzki? sounds wrong).

Gonzalez is effectively the same thing, except for the whole "lifetime" thing. It's pretty much a fair deal, given projected production and the number of FA years under the contract.

The bigger picture of the two of them is that Colorado is spending their money on their big stars, and hoping to make it back in terms of fan loyalty and gate revenue - Denver loves its heroes. Hell, John Elway could possibly run for governor and win in a landslide.

The other aspect of this bigger picture is the fact that Gonzalez (and to a lesser extent, Jhoulys Chacin) is making a lot of progress for building the Colorado Rockies brand in the country of Venezuela.

On a personal level, the potential of injury risk terrifies me, but you can't operate on fear of injury risk. I'm also not sold on Gonzalez. I'm really, really not. I don't deny his 2010 was awesome, but his A. home/road splits and B. High BABIP/low BB% stat line isn't the kind that ages well. I'm honestly trying to not worry and love the Extension.


2. What are your expectations for Jose Lopez in 2011?

Lopez is going to be getting a BABIP boost from Coors Field and just simple regression analysis. He's a decent line drive hitter with 20+ HR power who hopefully will benefit from the large power alleys at Coors Field. If he can handle league-average defense up the middle, he could be a decent addition to the squad for roughly nothing (AAA RHP Chaz Roe). Unless he gets hurt somehow or falls on his face completely in ST, he'll likely be the starter in 2011.


3. How good would you say the Rockies farm system is? From what I read on Minor League Ball, it seems to have a good amount of talent.

Deep, but not top-heavy. Matzek is an exciting prospect, but nowhere near MLB ready. Depending on how Friedrich rebounds from his 2010 injury, we could be seeing him late 2011 or 2012. Rex Brothers could be coming out of the pen mid-2011. Past those 3 guys and Wilin Rosario, it's not a terribly exciting system for anyone who doesn't religiously follow minor league baseball. There's a lot of good depth down there, but there isn't a Jason Heyward or Matt Wieters waiting in the wings. But it's deep, and there's been a couple of good drafts in a row.


4. I feel like when the Rockies come up in conversation, people generally think of them as a power-hitting team, especially with Coors Field. But what they also bring, which goes seemingly unrecognized, is great speed throughout the lineup with Carlos Gonzalez, Eric Young Jr., Dexter Fowler, and even Troy Tulowitzki. Do you think their speed will play an important role in their performance in 2011?

Fact is that speed NEEDS to play a major factor in 2011. The forms it arrives in may vary though. Gonzalez is a legit 30/30 threat. Tulowitzki is a good runner, but if he breaks 20SB in a season, I'll be baffled. Dexter Fowler, if he can put his bat together, has the gap power and pure speed to be a regular double-digits 3B guy. He has the speed to steal 30, but he's not really a base stealer - if that makes any sense. Dexter Fowler's speed comes to fruition in the form of covering massive amounts of ground. His 1st-3rd speed is probably the best on the team. Eric Young Jr. is kind of a problem. He's effectively a 1-dimensional player: he's really, really, really fast. Home to 1st, nobody on this team is faster than he is. Well, EYJ is QUICK. He could be an elite basestealer, but he can't bat worth his salt, he can't defend a position. He's surprised everyone thus far by even getting as far as he has. The thing to remember is that speed will play a bigger role on the basepaths rather than purely stealing. Fact is, you don't steal in front of Gonzalez and Tulowitzki - which could negate Gonzalez' SB threat. There's a lot for 1B Coach Glenallen Hill to work on with these guys.


5. Todd Helton's 2010 season was certainly a disappointment (although a .362 OBP is very respectable). How do you feel about the fact that he's signed through 2013 on a three-year $33.6MM deal?

Todd Helton is kind of the elephant in the room anymore. He's too much "The Franchise Guy" to just cut or whatever. There's a chance there's still a AVG/OBP guy still in there, and Bill James sees a decent rebound coming for Helton. The fact is that he's getting old and he needs to play only 100-110 games TOPS in 2011 if they want him to be productive. At least 2 days off a week. The extension doesn't really bother me. It's basically the "Retire as a Rockie" contract.


6. The Rockies rotation -- namely Chacin, Jimenez, Paulino (if he eventually slides in there), and De La Rosa -- seems to have a lot of control issues. How do you think this will play out in 2011?

Paulino won't be in the rotation, for starters. Past that:
Jimenez K/BB = 2.33
Chacin K/BB = 2.16 (MiLB K/BB = 2.88)
Hammel K/BB = 3.00
De La Rosa K/BB = 2.05 (2009 = 2.33)

I'm not worried about these guys. Cook, I'm worried about. If he wants to be a all-contact-no-strikeouts guy, he can't be walking 3.67 batters per 9 innings. Upside, he's kind of the #5 pitcher in the rotation, so it's a bit more forgivable.


7. Last year, it seemed that the Rockies really went downhill when Tulowitzki went down with
a broken wrist. If this were to happen again, do you feel that the 2011 Rockies will be better prepared for such an incident?

How do you figure they went downhill? From June 18-July 26th, the Rockies went 17-16. Given the fact that the Rockies were 34-32 before the Tulowitzki injury, I'd say they did just fine. Between Chris Nelson and Johnny Herrera, the SS position is covered, at least defensively, and the fact that Nelson has a lot to prove as a MLB hitter could make him an exciting player to see in the majors, should Colorado need him to start.


8. What would you say is the Rockies' greatest weakness at this point?

The Rockies' greatest weakness isn't really a single position but more the fact that they are relying on Ian Stewart, Chris Iannetta, and Seth Smith to really step their games up and be the players they're very capable of being, and in the event they're not, their primary backups aren't terribly encouraging (Spilborghs, Ty Wigginton, Jose Morales/Matt Pagnozzi/Mike McKenry). They can't tolerate another poor season from any of these guys.


9. The Rockies seemed to have had a busy offseason, with the acquisitions of Lindstrom, Wiggington, Paulino, Lopez, the three-year deal given to De La Rosa and the extensions given to Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. Would you say the Rockies made all the right moves this offseason?

Paulino they got for nothing, as they would've nontendered Clint Barmes anyhow. Jose Lopez is a huge rebound candidate, though not inspiring thus far in his career. I felt Wigginton was paid too much for too long, given his projected role with Colorado (utility guy). Lindstrom was a much-needed piece, given Huston Street's injury history. The fact that DLR took a pay cut to play for Colorado is incredibly encouraging to the fanbase. The extensions, I covered them already. Overall offseason, the only deal I don't like (or at least am not OK with) is Wigginton. Overall I say it was an A- offseason, assuming it's over.


10. What are your feelings about Jim Tracy?

Not a fan. I find him inconsistent, and he seems to have a player type he likes more than others, so he'll play favorites when someone like Ian Stewart is going through a rough patch. I strongly expect that if Ian Stewart goes through a 1-for-15 stretch, Wigginton will start at 3B for the following 3 weeks, regardless of Wigginton's performance. He selectively ignores splits in this fashion, for example in the form of a L/R platoon without actually looking at how well the player has performed in the negative side of the platoon.

Tracy also overworked Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010 during the first half, which directly led to his 2nd half struggles. The guy was flat out tired, and needlessly so. Apparently the starters like being overworked, but it's not the manager's job to be their BFF, it's to put the best players possible on the field to win baseball games. He also pitched Matt Belisle an absurd amount, and while they needed him part of the season, when they had other options (Octavio Dotel for example), they still pitched Belisle. His absurd micromanaging of the bullpen during tight games infuriates watchers, and I almost feel like he needs his toys taken away from him so he doesn't break them.

That all said, the players still seem to respond to him, so I obviously don't have the whole picture.


I'd like to once again thank Andrew J. Martin  for taking the time to answer these questions thoughtfully. Another great week of Ten Questions. 

Brandon Belt

In case you haven't heard of Brandon Belt, it's about time. He's an up-and-coming star in the Giants farm system that could very well be an integral part of the San Francisco Giants in 2011. As of now, he's playing in the Arizona Fall League, and enjoying success, as he did all season long...

An AFL title would just be the cherry on the top of what was an extraordinary debut season by any measurement. The 2009 fifth-round pick led the Minor Leagues with a 1.075 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage). He finished second in batting average (.352) and on-base percentage (.455) while ending up fourth in RBIs (112) and seventh in slugging percentage (.620). He did it while playing across three levels, starting with Class A Advanced San Jose and finishing in Triple-A Fresno.

Belt exhibits an impressive combination of power, contact, plate discipline, and a little bit of speed: in three levels of the minor leagues this year, he put up a .352/.455/.620 slash line, hit 23 home runs, walked 93 times in 595 plate appearances, and despite the fact that he's primarily a first baseman, he stole 23 bases.

It's easy to get caught up in the Brandon Belt hype, because the numbers he's produced consistently all season long are quite amazing. He also seems to be a very likable player...for example, here's what MLB.com writer Jonathan Mayo had to say about him:

Still, there's a humility in how Belt speaks about what's happened in 2010. He got the chance to play in the AFL Rising Stars Game -- the best of the best -- and showed some serious plate discipline (not to mention the respect of opposing pitchers) by drawing three walks. While Belt clearly feels he belongs in this rarified air, he does so without any sense of entitlement.

After thoroughly examining his 2010 season, I am going to make a bold claim. I think Brandon Belt will be the  2011 Rookie of the Year. I've even made a Facebook fan page...Granted, he'll have to receive adequate playing time -- even Posey cut it close in the Rookie of the Year by missing the first couple months of the season (it certainly gave competitor Jason Heyward the upper hand). But Belt appears to possess a unique skill-set that could easily see him as a starting first baseman in 2011. 

I'll admit, I've gotten a little too caught up in the hype. But after seeing what Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey, and Madison Bumgarner have been able to do in the majors thus far, I believe Belt can emulate their success.


More about Brandon Belt to come...

Braves Acquire Dan Uggla

The Atlanta Braves traded Omar Infante and reliever Mike Dunn to the Florida Marlins in exchange for Dan Uggla. I think this was ultimately a smart move by the Braves, who have a pretty deep bullpen already; also, it's probably a good idea to capitalize on what will probably be Infante's only all-star appearance.

In exchange, they've added a powerful bat to their lineup that they could probably use for the next few years. When the Giants faced the Braves in the NLDS, the heart of their lineup consisted of Derrek Lee, Brian McCann, and Jason Heyward (I believe in the two-hole). Beyond that, they didn't have many impact bats with Martin Prado on the DL and relatively weak hitters like Troy Glaus, Brooks Conrad, and Rick Ankiel (yes, I said Ankiel).

Uggla, for them, represents a legitimate power bat that can complement Jason Heyward for several years to come, assuming the Braves sign him to an extension. The Braves now look like they will be a much scarier playoff threat in 2011.

A Closer Look at the Rookie of the Year Balloting

Player Name, Team, WAR	1st	2nd	3rd	Points
Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants 3.9	20	9	2	129
Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves 5.0	9	20	2	107
Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals 3.2	1	1	16	24
Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins 2.4	2	1	5	18
Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates 1.9		1		3
Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs 2.0			3	3
Ike Davis, New York Mets 3.4			2	2
Jose Tabata, Pittsburgh Pirates 2.0			1	1
Jonny Venters, Atlanta Braves 1.7			1	1

As you can see, for the most part, the voting was consistent with the Wins Above Replacement each player produced. There are three exceptions, only two of which were significant differences.

The first exception was Buster Posey, who likely would've produced the most WAR had he played the entire season -- of course, it's not necessarily fair to assume this, but based on the way he played for most of the season, it's fair to say that he was the winner. If I was a Braves fan, I would probably complain that Heyward got snubbed. But since I'm a Giants fan, I can overlook Heyward's impressive walk rate and instead marvel at the fact that Posey hits with power to all sides of the field, all while calling a good game behind the plate.

Now, the second exception is really not that significant at all. Neil Wakler produced less WAR than Tabata and Castro, but his 1.9 is close enough to their respective 2.0s that it's not really a big deal.

The third exception, however, is probably the biggest snub. Ike Davis had the best UZR among first basemen (10.1) all while putting up a nice slash line of .264/.351/.440 with 17 home runs and a nice walk rate of 12%. This accumulated to 3.4 WAR, much better than that of Castro (2.0), Walker (1.9), and even Jaime Garcia.

Now, I'm not saying that the voting should have gone by WAR. Personally, I think Jaime Garcia deserved third place in the Rookie of the Year voting, stepping up out of nowhere as a very solid number three starter. However, Ike Davis was clearly overlooked. It's easy not to be impressed by his .264 batting average, but he had just one less home run than Heyward, and his walk rate (12%) is comparable to Heyward's rate of 14%. Not to mention that Davis had the second-best defense among first basemen.

I guess I would've wanted Davis to slip up their in the voting between Sanchez and Garcia. Are Sanchez's numbers really better than those of Davis?

Gaby Sanchez: .273/.341/.448, -0.1 UZR, 19 home runs.
Ike Davis: .264/.351/.440, 10.1 UZR, 19 home runs.

Their numbers are quite similar. I think Davis deserved more votes, however, due to his far superior defense.

As a Giants fan, however, I must point out the lack of recognition for Madison Bumgarner. It makes sense, I suppose, that he was left off the ballot, because he by no means deserves a third-place vote, second-place vote, or even first-place vote for his regular season performance among this stacked rookie class. However, if the ballot was given after the postseason, and was for the top five rookies, Bumgarner definitely deserved a nod.

Whatever. I can't complain. Buster Posey won, and rightfully so. I was admittedly nervous..It's hard not to be, with all the hype surrounding Jason Heyward (the J-Hey kid). But now Giants fans can finally sit back and reminisce about what's been possibly the greatest season in the San Francisco era of this Giants franchise. A Rookie of the Year Award for Buster Posey, and a World Series title.

BUSTER POSEY: 2010 ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Finally. The San Francisco Giants season is officially complete. Buster Posey has won the Rookie of the Year for 2010, and rightfully so. Andres Torres was wrongfully snubbed of a Gold Glove award. But Gerald Demp Posey III has been rewarded for his great work. He stepped in and handled the best pitching staff in baseball. He was proficient in throwing out baserunners and preventing passed balls. But, perhaps most importantly, he was a hitter. 18 home runs and a .305 batting average. Ladies and gentlemen, a new era is upon us. The era of Buster Posey. And the national media has recognized it. In spite of all the hype surrounding Jason Heyward, from his opening-day bomb to his near-.400 OBP, Posey has beat him out for the Rookie of the Year Award. This is the icing on the cake of that World Series title. Ah, so this is what satisfaction feels like...

Buster Posey v. Jason Heyward: 2010 Rookie of the Year

Tomorrow is the day. After one of the best seasons in the history of the Giants franchise -- a lot of the credit due to Buster Posey, of course -- the world will finally know whether or not Buster Posey is the Rookie of the Year. The Giants have been overlooked many times this season. They weren't expected to win the NL West. They weren't expected to win the NLDS. They weren't expected to win the NLCS. And most importantly, they weren't expected to win the World Series. When Gold Glove Awards were announced, the Giants once again were overlooked. Andres Torres, arguably the best defensive outfielder in the National League, was not given the award for his superb outfield defense. Instead, Carlos Gonzalez got it. It's easy to shake most of these off. It simply made the Giants World Series victory all the better -- the fact that they were considered underdogs; Andres Torres' not being granted a Gold Glove Award was more of a personal hit, because I, among many other Giants fans, felt that he deserved recognition for his work out there.

But tomorrow, the Baseball Writers' Association of America can make it all right. Their voting will be announced at 11 AM (Pacific time) on Monday. As we await this sacred announcement, I would like to take one last look at the 2010 seasons of Jason Heyward and Buster Posey.

Batting Average
Posey - .305
Heyward - .277

Walk Rate
Posey - 6.8%
Heyward - 14.6%

ISO
Posey - .200
Heyward - .179

K Rate
Posey - 13.5%
Heyward - 24.6%

HR/AB
Posey - 18/406
Heyward - 18/520

SB/CS
Posey - 0/2
Heyward - 11/6

WAR
Posey - 3.9
Heyward - 5.0

My biased opinion: Posey deserves the award. He is a better hitter -- better contact rate and better raw power (better ISO). To do that, on top of catching the best pitching staff in baseball is just remarkable. Catchers don't get enough respect, but what they do every day takes a real tear on their body. It requires intense focus and reaction time. Heyward has the upper hand in speed and his walk rate is quite impressive, but taking into account the fact that Posey is a catcher, I'd say Posey deserves the award.

Tomorrow, the Baseball Writers' Association of America can make it all right. They can reward Posey for one of the best rookie seasons of all time -- it's not very often that a rookie catcher leads their team to a World Series title, let alone the first World Series title for that franchise in over 50 years. For now, the demi-god known as Gerald Demp Posey III will have to wait to be honored.

NOTE: Keep in mind that WAR is a counting statistic, so the Heyward has better WAR because he played from day one, as opposed to Posey, who was held in the minors for the first two months of the season. 

National League Division Series Game Four Preview

Game Four, Monday October 11, Derek Lowe vs. Madison Bumgarner...

Derek Lowe will pitch on Monday. It's the same guy we faced in Game One, so I'll be lazy and copy-and-paste what I said about him: "Derek Lowe has been fantastic in September/October with a 1.17 ERA in 30.2 innings pitched. His overall 2010 numbers are nothing special, though -- a solid 4.00 ERA, along with a decent 58.8% groundball rate -- still below his career average of 62.9%. Nevertheless, he has the veteran, postseason experience -- for what that's worth -- and he did well in his two starts against the Giants this year: 11.1 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 2.38 ERA. The Giants need to avoid the double play. Derek Lowe is a groundball pitcher, and if he exposes this Giants weakness, they won't be scoring many runs..." In Game One, he went 5.1 innings, allowed one earned run and four hits, and walked four. The Giants need to avoid the double play. 

Madison Bumgarner has been a road warrior this year. He owns 1.91 road ERA in ten starts, and finished strong this year, with a 1.13 ERA in September. He's shown the ability to pitch well in big games, and although he hasn't faced Atlanta yet this year, he should have no problem handling their relatively weak offense (one with a struggling Jason Heyward). 

If the Giants win, they advance to the NLCS to play the Phillies. They don't need to win game four, but it would be extremely helpful if they win...that way they can have a rested team ready to take on the Phillies' powerhouse of a team. 

Barry Zito Continues Quality Second Half Pitching

In Barry Zito's fifth 2nd half start, he once again pitched a quality start. Giants starters have now tossed 11 quality starts in their last 13 games; Zito's line: 7 innings, 2 ER, 2 HR, 2 BB, 10 K. Giants fans should come to expect performances like this down the stretch, as Zito has proven to be a 2nd half pitcher over his career. The Giants' offense was quiet, as should have been expected against Tommy Hanson. Torres and Burrell, however, each managed 2 hits; Torres showed how valuable he is to this team by singling to center, stealing second, stealing third, and scoring on a groundout. With the Giants losing 2-1 in the top of the 9th, luck came their way. Buster Posey reached on an error after Huff was hit by a pitch, and Uribe advanced Huff to third with a flyout. Then, Chipper Jones pulled a Bill Buckner on a groundball by Pablo Sandoval to third, with Huff scoring on the play. With a 2-2 game, Giants relievers managed to keep the Braves scoreless and in the 11th, after a trio of walks by Peter Moylan, Pat Burrell hit a sac fly to give the Giants the 3-2 lead. Wilson came in, shut the door, and secured the win for the Giants. Kudos to the bullpen for great work tonight: Chris Ray, Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez, and Brian Wilson combined to shut down the Braves for 4 innings, allowing just 2 baserunners and striking out 5.

Notes:

• Buster Posey is 0 for 8 in this Atlanta series. He'll bounce back eventually: he's only struck out once in this series, so he's not exactly having trouble seeing the ball. Heyward was 0 for 5 on Friday night.
• The Giants have hit 0 HRs in this series, while the Braves have hit 4. This will be key going forward as the Giants have not been able to manufacture without home runs. They are 19-26 on the year in games in which they don't hit a home run.
• Pablo Sandoval was 0 for 4, but he did have 2 walks (1 intentional) and an RBI. And zero strikeouts. I'm still optimistic about his performance down the stretch.
• You might see Aaron Rowand in the lineup tomorrow. He's 8 for 18 in his career against Tim Hudson. Collectively, the Giants are hitting .252 against Hudson in 103 AB with 1 HR and 12 strikeouts.
• Pat Burrell once again contributed greatly to the Giants victory, reaching base 5 times on 2 hits and 3 walks (1 intentional), and also coming through with the winning RBI on a sacrifice fly. His plate discipline and power (7 HRs in 129 ABs with the Giants) have been valuable. I don't think we'll be forgetting about this any time soon:

In the news...

Giants Press Release: "Buster Posey of the San Francisco Giants was selected by fans in an online vote as the winner of the "Major League Baseball Clutch Performer of the Month Award Presented by Pepsi" for July, it was announced today. The award recognizes the player who performed his best when the game was on the line. [...] Posey hit .417 (43-for-103) with six doubles, a triple, seven home runs and 24 RBI for the N.L. Wild Card-leading San Francisco Giants during the month of July."

Here's a video of his clutch performance

Giants Lose Opener in Atlanta

An Eric Hinske home run was the difference in a Giants' 3-2 loss, as the Braves improved to a phenomenal home record of 37-14. After giving up two runs in the first two innings, Jair Jurrjens shut them down for the next 4 innings. The Giants failed to captialize, as evidenced by the 17 left on base. Their offense was not quiet, though. Sanchez, Sandoval, Torres, Uribe, and Huff all had doubles, and the Giants did not go in the ninth without a fight. Aaron Rowand battled against Wagner, then flied out to right near the warning track. Then, Renteria, who had homered against Wagner earlier this season to tie up a game, hit a fast line drive back at Wagner who quickly snagged it. Torres promptly came up and hit the first pitch for a grounder through the hole between short and third. With Torres at first, Freddy Sanchez battled against Wagner, crushing an inside pitch just a few feet foul of a home run, but eventually struck out. Buster Posey's bat was silent in the game, 0 for 4 with a strikeout. Meanwhile, Pablo Sandoval appears to be quietly making a return to the .330-25 Home Run guy that he was last year. He went 2 for 4 with a single and a double.

Lincecum's outing was not bad, but it wasn't particularly great. It was just barely above the bare minimum for a quality start, 3 ER in 6.1 IP. With the exception of the two home runs, he pitched quite well, but gave up 3 walks, one of which scored on a 2-run home run.

MLB.com: "Lincecum had gone 67 starts without allowing multiple homers, a lapse he last endured on July 20, 2008, when Milwaukee's Ryan Braun and Corey Hart victimized him."

However, Lincecum did manage to retake the National League lead in strikeouts.

Tomorrow, the Giants will square off against Tommy Hanson. They are hitting a collective .188 against him with 9 strikeouts in 16 at-bats.

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In other news...

Media is making this SF-ATL series out to be a competition: Posey vs. Heyward:

ESPN: "Heyward and Posey were on opposite teams during a 2005 state championship game in Georgia and could battle again for NL rookie of the year."

Lastly, a day after my post disparaging Bautista, he has been designated for assignment to make room for Todd Wellemeyer.

Official Giants' Twitter Page: "Today's SF transaction: Denny Bautista has been designated for assignment. Todd Wellemeyer has been reinstated from disabled list #SFGiants"

To be honest, as bad as Wellemeyer is, I can't see any harm in this. It's clearly only a temporary move, as Runzler and Affeldt will be back soon. If a Giants starter happens to have a bad start, Wellemeyer can be used to eat up innings. Within 2 weeks, hopefully, we'll cut all ties with him.