Notes: Brian Wilson on Lopez Tonight, Aaron Rowand

• The Phillies/Aaron Rowand trade rumors are starting up again.
• Brian Wilson will be making an appearance on Lopez Tonight. I'll try to post a video of it. He's going to be debuting a short film in which he starred (and co-wrote). 
• Oh, and he might be dying his beard new color to mark the occasion...(Edit: he's apparently going to be dressed as a sea captain.)
• Grant at McCovey Chronicles provides his attempt at building the 2011 batting order. I like Pablo Sandoval in the #8 spot a lot, actually -- at least for the time being. I'd love to see him work his way up the lineup, much like Cody Ross did. 
• SBNation took a humorous look at the best baseball names of all time. 
• 17 days till pitchers and catchers report!
• If you ever have an interesting video, article, blog post, photo, etc. that you think should be included in a Notes post, don't hesitate to email me (blog@splashingpumpkins.com) or tweet to me (@splashinpumpkin). 

Notes: Andrew Baggarly, Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval

• Can't believe I hadn't known this: Giants beat-writer Andrew Baggarly is writing a book on the 2010 Giants. I recommend you pre-order it now, as it will definitely be a must-read. 
• Tonight, Buster Posey received his Rookie of the Year Award at the BBWAA Awards Dinner. [picture]
• Pablo Sandoval is going to be in the Pepsi Home Run Derby in Venezuela..I'll keep you guys posted on it. 
• Sam Miller of the Orange County Register made a pretty cool graphic illustrating the reactions of Jays fans and Angels fans following the Vernon Wells for Mike Napoli & Juan Rivera trade. 
• If you're into sabermetrics, go check out the first-ever Beyond the Box Score podcast!
• The New York Times has a nice write-up on the Giants' return to New York. Also included: a cool picture of Buster Posey and Willie Mays together. 
• As of Sunday, 22 days till pitchers and catchers report!

The San Francisco Giants and Home Runs

As a baseball blogger, I read dozens of baseball articles each day. I'm fascinated and influenced by the myriads of brilliant pieces out there. A while ago, I ran into this post on Athletics Nation, examining the A's home runs using Hit Tracker Online. I've been meaning to look at the Giants' home runs for quite some time, but I would be remiss if I didn't first acknowledge the Athletics Nation post that influenced this. Anyway, here goes...

I love Hit Tracker Online. It shows the true distances of home runs, the speed off the bat, the date, the ballpark, the pitcher, the hitter, the teams, and a link to the Top Plays Archive, where a video of the home run can be found. To put it simply, it's awesome.

Without further ado, some notes on the Giants 2010 home runs...

• The longest home run of the year...Andres Torres off of Rodrigo Lopez on July 22, 2010, in Arizona. This one had a true distance of 450 ft. I love that Torres has the Giants' longest home run of the year. Not Pat Burrell. Not Pablo Sandoval. Not Aubrey Huff. The speedy guy, whose power nobody seems to trust. Yet, over the past two seasons, in 740 PAs, he's posted an ISO of .223...that's legitimate power. And he swings the heaviest bat on the team. Literally. I also love what Kruk says after this home run..."That's up where Barry Bonds used to hit 'em."
• The second, third, and fourth longest home runs of the year...courtesy of Pablo Sandoval. He may not have had a great season in terms of power, but when he got a hold of 'em, he hit 'em deep. And these were spread throughout the season....One was in April, one came in June, and one came in August.
• Home run with the fastest speed off the bat...Aubrey Huff off of Chris Narveson at Miller Park. 113.4 MPH off the bat.
• Home run with the highest apex...Andres Torres off of Carlos Villanueva at Miller Park. Apex of 134 feet. (Gotta love that four-game sweep at Miller Park...)
• The Giants had two inside-the-parkers...Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff. "That's right Mr. Huff. You hit home runs here, you gotta earn 'em."
• Some other great home runs from 2010, just because...Juan Uribe's HR in World Series Game One. Juan Uribe's HR in NLCS Game Six. Juan Uribe's HR off of Jonathan Broxton. Cody Ross' home runs in NLCS Game One: first and second. Pat Burrell's grand slam (his second HR of that game). Juan Uribe's grand slam (his second HR of that inning). Oh yeah, and I love this Huff home run, for whatever reason. Lastly, of course, Edgar Renteria's HR in World Series Game Five. 

Because there's so many, here are the honorable mentions....Burrell off of Broxton (couldn't find the video of this one). Ishikawa's grand slam off of Ubaldo Jimenez. Renteria's home-opening day home run off of Billy Wagner. 

• One of my favorite things in baseball is the walkoff home run. I love walkoff home runs. Something about a player being able to end the game with one swing of the bat. Something about the brief period of time in which you can watch the ball sail through the air, awaiting its descent into the stands. Something about the way in which the player who hits the home run pauses for a second to gaze at the beautiful work he's done. I love them. I'm very saddened by the fact that the Giants went the entire season without a walkoff home run....but this one from 2009 was pretty awesome.

Pablito

Needless to say, this picture makes me happy.

Notes: Willie McCovey, Pablo Sandoval, Thomas Neal

• First of all, happy 73rd birthday to Willie McCovey, a true Giants great!
• According to Henry Schulman, Pablo Sandoval's conditioning is going well:

"Aurilia lives in Phoenix and told me today he saw Pablo at a shopping mall just before Christmas. Sandoval told him he had lost 17 pounds."

• Speaking of preseason "best shape of their lives" stories, I think this article is relevant. You might recall Aaron Rowand showing up to Spring Training in the best shape of his life, but his 2010 numbers certainly did not reflect an improvement. 
• Thomas Neal, a prospect that I looked at recently, is going to appear on the Hot Stove show on CSN tomorrow night with Mychael Urban.
• I'm excited to say that Urban has agreed to participate in the Ten Questions Q&A series, so you can look forward to that. 
• Ross of Ross and the Heckler Speak has slowly been tackling hall of fame cases for his new-and-improved hall of fame. He recently looked at the cases for Barry Larkin and Fred McGriff.
• Lastly, in case you haven't yet heard: Jason Bartlett agreed to a two-year deal with the Padres, Edgar Renteria's deal with the Reds (one-year $2.1MM plus $900K in incentives) was officially announced today, and the Reds announced a one-year $900K deal with Fred Lewis today. 

Notes

• Buster Posey will be featured on the cover of a special double-issue of ESPN The Magazine. Buster Olney has written a great article about Posey...check it out here. 
• In other magazine cover news, Tim Lincecum was featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated's year-end issue. 
• Triples Alley has a nice post about how the Giants induce the fewest groundballs in the majors (242 GB below average per year) and thus, infield defense isn't as important for the Giants as it would be for a team like the Cardinals. It's comforting to know this, as the left side of the Giants' infield, Miguel Tejada and Pablo Sandoval, has mediocre defensive range. 
• Kruk and Kuip are close to signing six-year extensions as the Giants' broadcasting duo.
• Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven were named today as the recommended 2011 Hall of Fame class by the Baseball Bloggers Alliance.
  
  

Looking Back at the 2010 Giants Projections

To say that 2010 was a season full of surprises would be an understatement: Pablo Sandoval and Tim Lincecum had disappointing sesasons; Mark DeRosa was injured after playing in only 26 games; Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff played far beyond expectations, putting up all-star caliber numbers; and Buster Posey had no trouble whatsoever in adjusting to the majors, becoming an elite catcher from day one (his debut). Lastly, the Giants picked up some phenomenal players on the way, namely Cody Ross, Javier Lopez, and Pat Burrell. Now that we've looked at (and made) projections for the 2011 season, I thought it'd be fun to take a look back at how certain Giants were expected to perform in 2010 (and compare it to their actual performance). This will give context to how surprising 2010 really was. For the purposes of this, I'll use ZiPS projections, one of the most well-respected projection systems out there. If you want to take a look at the 2010 ZiPS projections, they are available here.

Pablo Sandoval
Projected - .320/.368/.516; OPS+ 130
Actual - .268/.323/.409; OPS+ 95

Aubrey Huff
Projected - .270/.330/.448; OPS+ 102
Actual - .290/.385/.506; OPS+ 138

Aaron Rowand
Projected - .273/.335/.431; OPS+ 100
Actual - .230/.281/.378; OPS+ 75

Buster Posey
Projected - .263/.343/.398; OPS+ 95
Actual - .305/.357/.505; OPS+ 129

Freddy Sanchez
Projected - .296/.331/.414; OPS+ 95
Actual - .292/.342/.397; OPS+ 98

Edgar Renteria
Projected - .280/.336/.388; OPS+ 90
Actual - .276/.332/.374; OPS+ 90

Juan Uribe
Projected - .269/.311/.442; OPS+ 95
Actual - .248/.310/.440; OPS+ 99

Andres Torres
Projected - .254/.315/.397; OPS+ 86
Actual - .268/.343/.479; OPS+ 119

As can be seen from these comparisons, which look at only eight of the Giants, there were many surprises. Torres, Huff, and Posey far exceeded expectations; on the other hand, Rowand and Sandoval far underperformed. All in all, the Giants ended up playing much better than expected, taking home a World Series trophy with an offense that, before the season began, was the subject of ample criticism.

2011 Giants Hitting Projections

So far, Fangraphs has posted the Bill James projections and the Fans projections. I thought it'd be fun to project the slash lines and home run numbers of the Giants' (presumable) starting eight (along with our personal commentary on our projections). I'd love to hear input from readers...post your own projections in the comments, or simply gives us your take on our projections...

We're Giants fans, so our projections are probably biased, but whatever.

Buster Posey:

• Bill James - .308/.370/.506; 21 HRs
• Fans - .304/.374/.483; 20 HRs
• Julian Levine - .310/.380/.500; 25 HRs...I don't expect much to change with Posey, with the exception of an improved walk rate.
• Zachary Chiang - .290/.360/.490; 20 HRs...More patience, less power. Might tire down the stretch.

Aubrey Huff:

• Bill James - .269/.348/.453; 19 HRs
• Fans - .282/.358/.456; 21 HRs
• Julian Levine - .280/.350/.460; 18 HRs...I expect a natural decline in Huff's numbers from his stellar 2009 campaign, but I think he'll remain solid. He won't be a major home run threat, especially playing in AT&T Park, and his walk rate will probably decline from his peak '09 season, but he'll still be an impact bat in the heart of the lineup.
• Zachary Chiang - .275/.360/.460; 20 HRs...Basically a repeat of last year, minus a scorching July.

Freddy Sanchez:

• Bill James - .285/.330/.401; 8 HRs
• Fans - .290/.336/.385; 6 HRs
• Julian Levine - .290/.340/.400; 7 HRs...I don't really expect Sanchez's numbers to change much at all from his '09 numbers. Rather, I expect his consistency to improve. He had a hot August that raised his numbers a bit, after he had had a prolonged slump; I expect fewer up's and down's in 2010.
• Zachary Chiang - .295/.340/.400; 10 HRs..Hoping he can improve on a career best walk rate.

Pablo Sandoval:

• Bill James - .308/.363/.492; 18 HRs
• Fans - .295/.345/.476; 19 HRs
• Julian Levine - .310/.375/.510; 20 HRs...Sandoval's a polarizing figure. Some say he'll play like he did in '10, which was rather mediocre and disappointing; others say he'll play like he did in '09 -- all-star caliber hitting. I lean towards the optimistic side. I think he'll hit for a high average with good power. AT&T Park will definitely take a few home runs away from him, so I expect a lot of doubles -- like 40-50.
• Zachary Chiang - .290/.330/.450; 20 HRs...Bounces back to somewhere between '09 and '10.

Miguel Tejada:

• Bill James -.279/.324/.415; 17 HRs
• Fans - .272/.311/.389; 13 HRs
• Julian Levine - .280/.320/.405; 12 HRs...low walk rate, doubles power, decent average.
• Zachary Chiang - .275/.320/.400; 15 HRs...Amazing comeback isn't that likely. Solid, if anything.

Pat Burrell:

• Bill James - .237/.351/.443; 20 HRs
• Fans - .255/.350/.440; 19 HRs
• Julian Levine - .250/.350/.440; 17 HRs...exceptional walk rate, good power.
• Zachary Chiang - .240/.320/.450; 20 HRs...Not much confidence after weak postseason performance.

Andres Torres:

• Bill James - .271/.340/.440; 14 HRs
• Fans - .270/.343/.420; 12 HRs
• Julian Levine - .270/.340/.460; 15 HRs..I'm a believer in Torres. In 740 PAs in 2009 and 2010, he posted an ISO of .223...I don't think my projected ISO of .190 is extremely optimistic.
• Zachary Chiang - .260/.330/.420; 10 HRs..A little bit low, but I think some pitchers will figure him out.

Cody Ross:

• Bill James - .265/.321/.444; 18 HRs
• Fans - .274/.335/.446; 19 HRs
• Julian Levine - .270/.330/.460; 20 HRs...Okay, I got a little crazy here. But I don't know. I feel like he has some legitimate power, and it will just come flowing out in 2010. Lots of doubles, and lots of home runs (yes, I just called 20 home runs "lots of home runs". Gee, I miss Barry Bonds...)  I think the fact that he has decent speed will help give a little boost to his power numbers, as he'll stretch several singles into doubles.
• Zachary Chiang - .275/.320/.430; 15 HRs...Will be hard for him to meet unrealistic expectations.

Looking at the projections, it seems the Giants have five guys with decent potential to hit 20 HRs...they don't have any sluggers, but they have nice power throughout the lineup. It's certainly enough offense to support that stellar rotation (which we'll project some time in the near future).

The Giants and Baserunning

I recently got the 2011 Bill James Handbook (which I highly recommend, by the way), and one of the sections in the book is about 2010 Major League Baserunning. I was not surprised at all to find that the Giants were the second-worst baserunning team in the majors -- behind only the Kansas City Royals.

For context -- an average major leaguer went from first to third on a single 28% of the time; a very good baserunner will go from first to third on a single about 38% of the time; and a very slow runner will do it about 18% of the time. 

The Giants went from first to third on a single 82 times in 297 chances for a rate of 27.6%...so they were one base below average. 

Now, an average major league player scored from second on a single 58% of the time; a very good baserunner will score from second on a single around 70% of the time; and a very slow runner will score from second around 41% of the time. 

The Giants scored from second on a single 100 times in 170 chances for a rate of 58.8%...so they were one base above average. 

Lastly, an average major leaguer will score from first on a double 44% of the time; 62% is very good, 27% is very poor. 

The Giants scored from first on a double 31 times in 84 chances for a rate of 36.9%...about six bases below average. 

A player is credited with a base taken when they advance on a passed ball, a wild pitch, a sac fly, a defensive indifference, or a balk. The Giants had 167 bases taken, which was about six bases below average. 

The Giants, meanwhile, were thrown out advancing 25 times -- tied for tenth-best in the majors, and were doubled off 17 times -- tied for the worst mark of any major league team. 

In average, a player grounds into a double play (in a double play opportunity) 11% of the time. The Giants grounded into a major-league worst 157 double plays. They had 1135 GIDP opportunities, so that rate comes to about 13.8%, or 32 double plays below average. 

Baserunning Gain comprises all of these statistics...it is "the total of all the types of extra baserunning advances minus the (triple) penalty for all the BR Outs compared with what would be expected based on the MLB averages"....BR Outs "include the sum of Outs Advancing, Doubled Offs, and when a runner is tagged out on the bases when another runner moves up on a Wild Pitch, Passed Ball, or scores on a Sacrifice Fly."

The Giants had 43 BR Outs and their BR Gain of -42 was the fifth-worst mark in the majors. 

Meanwhile, the Giants had an SB Gain of -9, the absolute worst in the majors. SB Gain is based on the fact that stolen base attempts must be successful greater than about two thirds of the time to have a positive result on the number of runs scored. It is therefore "the number of bases stolen minus two times the number of caught stealing (SB Gain = SB - 2CS)." The Giants stole 53 bases (26 of which were stolen by Andres Torres), and were caught stealing 31 times, so that equates to 53-62 which is equal to -9. 

The Giants had an overall net gain (SB Gain + BR Gain) of -51, trailing only the Kansas City Royals as the worst baserunning team. 

Some stand-out individual Giants net gains:

• Andres Torres +28
• Nate Schierholtz +13
• Pablo Sandoval -27
• Aubrey Huff +8
• Edgar Renteria, Cody Ross (with Marlins and Giants), and Buster Posey +1
• Bengie Molina (with Giants and Rangers) -13
• Jose Guillen (with Royals and Giants) -25

It seems as though the Giants have moved in the wrong direction in fixing their baserunning problem, as Miguel Tejada had a net gain of -5, a bit worse than Rent's mark of +1. Jason Bartlett, a shortstop that I had wanted the Giants to go after, had a net gain of +21, markedly better.

Again, if you like obscure yet important statistics like this, I highly recommend that you get the Bill James 2011 Handbook.

Giants Have Interest in Renteria....Seriously?

According to John Shea, there's mutual interest between the San Francisco Giants and their World Series hero Edgar Renteria.

Let's see here...the Giants have Mike Fontenot on a one-year deal. He can play short and second. They have Freddy Sanchez as their starting second baseman. They have Pablo Sandoval starting at third, and Miguel Tejada starting at short (he can also play third). Then they have Mark DeRosa at the utility role. He can play both middle infield positions that Renteria would supposedly play (shortstop, where he's lived his entire career, and second base, a position to which he recently said he's willing to switch). Then, of course, there's the younger guys, who to be honest, probably aren't the best options: Emmanuel Burriss and Ryan Rohlinger.

So to review...at short we have Tejada, Fontenot, and DeRosa. Do the Giants really need a fourth shortstop? And if so, are Burriss and Rohlinger truly incapable of being viable fourth shortstop options?

Then we have Sanchez, Fontenot, and DeRosa at second. Do the Giants really need a fourth second baseman? And if so, are Burriss and Rohlinger truly incapable of being viable fourth second baseman options?

The Giants don't really need another middle infielder. On top of that, it's simply a waste of money to sign Renteria again. Renteria has constantly battled injuries, he's not that fast anymore, his defense is quite mediocre, he's old, he can't hit for power, he can't hit for a high average, and he'd likely cost more than Burriss and Rohlinger combined. Plus, Burriss gives the Giants speed off of the bench.

So...I truly believe that Renteria will NOT man a Giants uniform next season. And if he does...well, I can't even begin to understand what is wrong with the Giants management.

Ten Pounds

Pablo Sandoval has already dropped more than 10 pounds since the World Series, although he hasn't been weighed since before Thanksgiving. Nevertheless, exciting news. Thanks YourBase!

More Pablo Sandoval...

In a recent article, Mychael Urban said the following:

Pablo Sandoval simply can’t be counted on at this point, so it’s not absurd to see the Giants going with a left-side tag team of Uribe and Tejada, with a little Mark DeRosa and Manny Burriss on the side.

Seriously? I know Pablo Sandoval had a disappointing season, but I find the notion to be ridiculous: that Miguel Tejada, Mark DeRosa, or Emmanuel Burriss are better options than Sandoval playing alongside Juan Uribe. Let's do a little comparison...for the sake of making this unbiased, I will use anonymity...I refuse to even include Burriss in this, because it should be obvious that Sandoval is a better option than him. Burriss has played mediocre defense in his career at short, and has a career slash line of .264/.329/.302; yes, I'm not making this up. Burriss has a career SLG of .302...oh yeah, and he's injury-prone. Let's move on here...

Listed are the following players' 2010 slash lines along with their current ages...

Player A: .194/.279/.258, injured for most of 2010, current age: 35
Player B: .268/.323/.409, current age: 24
Player C: .269/.312/.381, current age: 36

Hmm...so it appears that player B put up similar numbers to player C in 2010, with one exception. Player C is 12 years older. It should be pretty obvious who these players are, but in case you are unaware, A is DeRosa, B is Sandoval, and C is Tejada.

DeRosa is an injury risk, and was terrible when he played in 2010. Even assuming a full recovery, his upside is minimal -- he'll probably max out at 15 home runs, and that's at best. Meanwhile, his third base defense is mediocre, with a career UZR/150 of -5.7, as is his shortstop defense (career UZR/150 of -1.5). So, yes, it's absurd to think that DeRosa is a better option than Sandoval. Oh yeah, and to reiterate, he's 35 years old.

Now Tejada has only played third base in one season, 2010, and he produced -6.9 UZR. Just awful. In all fairness, though, small sample size. At shortstop, however, he has played thousands of games, and his career UZR/150 of -3.4 is mediocre. His offense, meanwhile, was slightly worse than Sandoval's, due to a nauseating 4.4% walk rate, and slightly less power than Sandoval. Oh yeah, and he's 36. Plus, he'd cost extra money because he's a free agent, whereas the Giants already have Sandoval and DeRosa for 2011.

Keep in mind, also, that Sandoval is due for a resurgence. I recommend that you look into this for further reading.

If Sandoval gains another 20 pounds this offseason, and comes back looking like Mo Vaughn in 2003, then yes, send him to the minors. But at this point, taking into account that he's due for at least a slight resurgence, that he has less of an injury history than DeRosa/Burriss, that he's younger than DeRosa/Tejada, and that he's never played atrocious defense, at least by UZR standards (career UZR/150 of -0.5 at third base), he's a better option to play alongside Uribe than DeRosa/Burriss/Tejada.

People are too quick to lose faith in players. Remember in August, when people thought Tim Lincecum's career was quickly coming to an end? Exercise patience, people. Sandoval's 2010 production was that of an average third baseman. He needs to lose weight, but that doesn't mean he's not worthy of the starting job at third.

Twins Win Bidding for Nishioka. Good News for Giants?

The Twins have won the bidding for Japanese middle-infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka. This could be good news for the Giants, though.

Nishioka is said to be a better fit at second base, but the Giants are looking for a guy who can play shortstop well. In 2010, Nishioka posted a slash line of .346/.423/.482, but that was in all likelihood a big fluke, as he had a BABIP of .389... Before that, his previous best was .300/.366/.463...This article by Patrick Newman of Fangraphs basically likens Nishioka to Chone Figgins and Ryan Theriot, both of whom had unimpressive campaigns in 2010. So Nishioka isn't that great...throw in the fees for bidding and signing him to a contract, and it's definitely too high of a price to pay for a relatively weak shortstop.

The good news here is that this increases the likelihood that J.J. Hardy becomes available on the trade market. Hardy is one of the best shortstop options currently available: he's one of the best defensive shortstops in the majors, with a career UZR/150 of 11.0, and his bat has great offensive upside. From 2007-2008, Hardy belted a total of 50 home runs, although he hasn't come near those numbers in the past couple of seasons. However, his Bill James projections see him hitting .263/.328/.425 next year with 16 home runs. Throw in the superb defense that he'll inevitably provide, and that is an extremely valuable shortstop. Even with his .268/.320/.394 slash line in 101 games in 2010, he managed to produce 2.4 WAR. Project that over a full season and his 2010 worth is at 3.5-4.0 WAR. But he's projected to improve upon those numbers. At this point, the Giants probably wouldn't even have to give up much to get him.

His excellent defense and significant offensive potential warrant serious consideration. A lineup of Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff, Freddy Sanchez, J.J. Hardy, Pablo Sandoval, Mark DeRosa, Andres Torres, and Cody Ross is a legitimate offense. Pair that with the incredible rotation that the Giants have, and I think they have the tools to win many games. And that's not even considering the eventual call-up of Brandon Belt.

Prepare for the Return of Awesomeness

I saw this today and can't help but think that it is actually related to Pablo Sandoval...

I can't wait for the return of awesomeness.

Panda: Black, White, and Somewhere in Between

With all those Panda hats sitting on heads at AT&T Park, visiting fans would never guess that the Giants' pudgy, but promising young third baseman was struggling to do what he does best: Hit the ball hard. Despite this marketing department success, productive Pablo Sandoval at-bats quickly became endangered, if not extinct. We continued to hope that the Panda was simply bamboozling us all, but the hot streak never happened. Silly puns aside, it was obvious that Pablo was not quite the same hitter he was in 2009. Peripheral stats show that this decline can be partially attributed to luck.

Whether you like it or not, luck is an essential aspect of baseball. Occasionally, popups will fall for bloop hits, screaming liners will become double plays, and wind-aided fly balls will barely clear the wall. By most standards, Pablo had an extremely lucky 2009 season, only to have his fortunes reversed in 2010. Both his mediocre batting average and minuscule power numbers were influenced by luck to an extent.

In 2009, the Panda sported a .350 batting average on balls in play and was even dubbed "Fat Ichiro" by some, due to his ability to seemingly guide the ball away from the fielders. That shiny number is considered unsustainable, unless the player in question happens to be breathtakingly fast. In 2010, this number regressed to a .291 mark, despite a similar line drive rate around 17%. League average BABIP hovers around .300, but most elite hitters are on the high end of the spectrum. At his best, Pablo should be right there with them. Illustrious sabermetrician Bill James projects a BABIP of .327 in 2011, a number very close to Sandoval's career average. A .300 batting average is well within the realm of possibility. If Pablo can change his approach to make more solid contact, the line drives will start to fall again.

After Pablo slugged 25 homers in 2009, including a mammoth shot on the last day of the season, Giants fans were naturally disappointed by the measly 13 home runs he hit in 2010. And while it was next to impossible to predict that Sandoval's power from the right side would simply disappear, there were some signs of possible regression. According to www.hittrackeronline.com, 7 of his 25 home runs in 2009 were classified as "just enough", meaning the ball barely cleared the wall. This is not an exceptional number until it is compared against the 2 JE's he had in 2010. Because Pablo actually had an increased fly ball rate by about 2%, it is safe to say that he was marginally unlucky with home runs. Bill James' projections predict 18 home runs, a number somewhat between Sandoval's two seasons.

Although it may have seemed like Pablo's terrible plate discipline contributed to his struggles, the truth is that it only became more noticeable. In 2009, he swung at 41.7% of balls outside the strike zone and was still largely successful. In 2010, this rate increased a mere 3%, but was widely blamed for his failures. In addition, one can make the argument that coaching actually made the situation worse. While only 38.3% of pitches to Pablo this year were actually thrown in the strike zone, a remarkable 61.7% of first pitches were strikes. Nobody can testify to what coaches were telling him, but at times, it certainly seemed like somebody was instructing him to take a pitch, even if it happened to be right down the middle. Many opposing pitchers learned to steal a strike before getting him to chase the rest of the at-bat.

Of course, misfortune can not be blamed for all of Pablo's disappointing season. He still needs to improve his approach and his health this offseason. This research was done to show unfaithful Giants fans that he is capable of bouncing back next year, just as Lincecum did this September. He does not need to be traded as soon as possible, nor does he need to go back down to Triple A. While he may never be the offensive monster we saw in 2009, he won't be the liability he was in 2010. Most experts tend to agree that his true talent level lies somewhere between these opposite seasons. Hopefully from now on, Pablo will be in control of his own destiny.

Links Ed. #2

Every week, I gather links to interesting baseball-related articles, photos, videos, graphs, etc. Enjoy...

• Dan Hennessey of Knuckleballs explains why Ryan Zimmerman is the most underrated player in baseball. I agree completely. 
• According to John Sickels of MinorLeagueBall.com, here are the Giants' top 20 prospects.
• This is pretty old. But nevertheless, hilarious. A Brian Bocock story...
• Here are the ten players (five increase, five decrease), who experienced the biggest shift in isolated power from 2009 to 2010. No, Pablo Sandoval is not on this list. 
• Tim Marchman of Sports Illustrated explains why the DBacks are interested in trading Justin Upton

If you know/have an interesting baseball-or-Giants-related link, by all means tell us about it. 

Marlins Plan on Trading Uggla

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Florida Marlins plan on trading 2B Dan Uggla after failed extension talks. The San Francisco Giants, of course, are listed as one of the eight potential suitors for the 2010 Silver Slugger. Many Giants fans are salivating at the idea of acquiring the two-time all star, but there's plenty of reasons not to go after him.

First of all, there's no room for him. As long as Pablo Sandoval gets in shape, and Freddy Sanchez remains injury-free, third base and second base are occupied. There is of course, a vacant starting job at first base, but that will likely go to Aubrey Huff. Many fans might wish to see Uggla starting at third instead of Pablo, but I'm sure he'd put up similarly great numbers -- he could easily hit above .300 with solid power (maybe 25 homers).

Secondly, he's costly. Uggla will likely get $10MM this year and then his contract is up. So what do the Giants do then? Sign him to an extension? He already turned down a 4yr/$48MM extension offer from the Florida Marlins, so what does this mean? He could make a huge dent in the Giants payroll for the next several years.

Third of all, his defense is atrocious. His career UZR/150 is -4.5, but in recent years, his defense has gotten even worse. He'll likely move to first base within a few years. That's huge. The reason he is so valuable is because his offensive production is rare, coming from a second baseman. If he moves to first base, he loses a lot of that value. Also, the Giants have an up-and-coming first baseman in their farm system by the name of Brandon Belt. The Giants probably want to have a spot available for him when he's called up to the majors -- rather than occupying first base for the next four to five years.

This isn't even including what the Giants would potentially give up to have Uggla for one year. They'd likely have to part ways with one or more great prospects -- a myopic move for any GM of a team that has just won the World Series.

So anyway, there's no need for Dan Uggla. The Giants could get great offensive production out of Pablo Sandoval for a much, much, much lower cost. And Uggla is expensive -- it would not be wise for the Giants to take on his contract unless they're going to make him an everyday player. Lastly, his defense is just bad. If they were to put him at first base, assuming they don't re-sign Huff, there will be no room for the promising Brandon Belt when he receives his call-up.

Poll: Which 1B would you like to see the San Francisco Giants pursue?

It's likely that Aubrey Huff will return to the San Francisco Giants in 2011. He has, however, received offers from several teams. So if he doesn't return, who would you like to see the Giants pursue for first base? Courtesy of MLBTradeRumors.com, here's the full list of first-base options (besides the 34-year-old Huff):

First Basemen

• Garrett Atkins (31)
• Lance Berkman (35)
• Russell Branyan (35)
• Jorge Cantu (29)
• Adam Dunn (31) 
• Troy Glaus (34)
• Mike Hessman (33)
• Eric Hinske (33)
• Nick Johnson (32)
• Paul Konerko (35) 
• Casey Kotchman (28)
• Mark Kotsay (35)
• Adam LaRoche (31) 
• Derrek Lee (35) 
• Melvin Mora (39)
• Xavier Nady (32)
• Lyle Overbay (34)
• Carlos Pena (33) 
• Robb Quinlan (34)
• Fernando Tatis (36)
• Mike Sweeney (37)
• Ty Wigginton (33)

Many of the free-agent first-basemen are old. Some, like Nick Johnson, have injury risk. Others, like Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn, have uninspiring strikeout totals. There seem to be evident weaknesses with all of the above players, but of all of them, who would you most like to see the Giants pursue?

Personally, I would go with Nick Johnson for a very, very cheap contract due to his career .401 OBP. His ability to take walks is something the Giants could use, though his injury risk is tough to ignore. A safer option might be LaRoche, although I doubt he'd want to play at AT&T Park, and he'll never put up bigger numbers than he has in the past (low upside).

Konerko is a proven veteran, but his stock is way too high after finishing second in the AL in home runs in 2010, and I'm very skeptical as to whether or not he'll ever match that production again.

All in all, this is a tough call. The free agent market is stacked with first-basemen, but all of them have injury risks, are in their mid to late-30s, or just don't have great potential. If the opportunity to get Nick Johnson for a very (and I mean very) low cost presented itself, I think he'd be a good fit. He even gets on base against LHP (career .422 OBP) which is good for the Giants, who have several players that had trouble against left-handed pitching in 2010: Pablo Sandoval and Andres Torres are the stand-outs. Again, this would be if he were available for a cheap contract, because his injury risk is very eminent.

So anyway, who would you want the Giants to go after? Answer the poll on the upper right sidebar, or comment with your opinion. 

Should the Giants Re-sign Pat Burrell?

Should the Giants re-sign Pat Burrell? As of now, they have the following five players that can man the outfield:

• Cody Ross
• Andres Torres
• Aaron Rowand
• Nate Schierholtz
• Mark DeRosa

With such a crowded outfield, is there room for Burrell?

In 96 games with the Giants, he put up a .266/.364/.509 slash line, and hit 18 home runs. Among the San Francisco Giants, he had the second-highest OBP behind Aubrey Huff's .385, and his OPS+ of 132 was also second-best on the team, behind Huff's 138. The two benefits that Burrell brings are as follows:

1. Plate Discipline...Burrell's walk rate of 13.8% was easily tops among the Giants, and he and Huff were the only two Giants with double-digit walk rates. How important is walk rate? Well, consider this. The Giants ranked in the bottom ten in the majors in walk rate for 2010; in other words, they need players with plate discipline, because they are quite lacking in that category. Before they had Huff and Burrell, their offense had mighty struggles because none of their players could take a walk. Because free-swinging Bengie Molina left, and Pablo Sandoval was no longer the big bat in the middle of the lineup, the Giants were able to create a balanced cast of players (especially thanks to Burrell and Huff) that could guide them to the playoffs.

Keep this in mind: The Giants were the only team in the bottom-ten in the majors in walk rate that made it to the playoffs. Astros didn't make it. Orioles didn't make it. Royals, White Sox, Angels, Mariners, Pirates, Blue Jays, Cubs did not make it. So, what to take from this? The Giants are in need of players who can walk. And in that category, Burrell is quite adequate.

2. Power...Burrell's 18 home runs were tied for third-best on the Giants. His SLG of .509 was the best on the team, and although it's a small sample size (341 plate appearances), his ISO of .242 indicates that he has great power. In 2009, the Giants did not have a Huff. They did not have a Posey. And they did not have a Burrell. Burrell was one of the major bats in the lineup that drove the Giants' offense to a World Series title by virtue of his ability to crush the ball.

The Giants aren't desperate in this category. They've got Posey, Sandoval might rediscover his 2009 power bat, Torres has a little pop, Huff could be brought back, Uribe could be brought back. Burrell's power isn't a necessity, but it's surely nice to have.

Ah, but every rose has its thorns. Burrell does have two major perceived flaws:

1. High K rate...Burrell's strikeout rate of 26.6% was the second-worst on the team behind Eli Whiteside. And surely, his dreadful World Series in which he batted .000 and struck out 11 times in 13 at-bats, is not forgotten. If he's supposed to be a big bat in the middle of the order, the way I see it, he needs to make contact a little more often.

2. Defense...the defensive merits of Burrell are hard to get a full grasp on, merely because he hasn't played a full season in the outfield since 2008. What is a sure fact, however, is that advanced defensive metrics haven't been too kind to Burrell throughout his career. Since 2002, he's cost his teams about 40 runs on defense (based on UZR). His arm is average, however, and especially adequate for a left-fielder.

Quite lacking, however, is Burrell in his ability to cover range. In 2006-2008, his range (or lack thereof) cost the Phillies 44.5 runs (based on RngR). Having seen Burrell run, it's not hard to understand that he can't cover much range out in left field.


So what to take from all of this?

On the offensive side, I feel like Pat Burrell is a less-extreme version of Mark Reynolds. He's got power, walks a lot, and strikes out a lot.

On the defensive side, he's nothing special. The Giants, however, could work around that flaw. They could give Burrell the same treatment they did this year, taking him out for later-inning defensive improvement. Also, if he was to be used as a pinch hitter, the Giants wouldn't have to deal with his mediocre defense. That was, after all, the original intention when he was acquired. I don't think he wants to turn into Matt Stairs at the age of 34, though.

The big looming question is, how much will Burrell want? Based on his WAR, his performance with the Giants in 2010 was worth about $11MM. After seeing his bat disintegrate in the World Series, however, I have lost confidence in the belief that he's back to being an impact bat.

I think the Giants should just play it safe. I think they should give Burrell a small contract (like Huff's 1yr/$3MM deal) to be a pinch-hitter and occasional left-fielder (an outfield reserve). And if all goes well, he'll force himself into a starting outfield spot as he did in 2010. If he's not willing to take such a small contract, he's not worth it. He's too risky at this point. I wouldn't want to see that World Series Pat Burrell struggle at the plate day after day in 2011 and receive ten million dollars for those services. That risk is just too eminent.

After all, how did the Giants enjoy so much success in 2010? The bargain contracts that outweighed their horrible contracts. Torres, Huff, Posey, Bumgarner etc. all played top-notch baseball on cheap contracts. That's how this team is going to need to build success around Rowand's 5yr/$60MM contract and Zito's 7yr/$126MM contract.

Yes, this is rather cruel. Pat the Bat did a lot to help the Giants bring home their first-ever World Series title since moving to San Francisco. But in order to succeed, they need to minimize risk. And I see Burrell as a mighty risk, given his bat's propensity for rapid-aging.

Andrew Baggarly - "Bringing back Pat Burrell is a matter the Giants are discussing right now. I know Bochy loves Burrell’s clubhouse presence, but he’d likely be in a reserve role."

Jason Wong Graphics

I got permission from Jason Wong to post some of his SF Giants graphics. They are incredible. Here's a look at some of them...(Click to enlarge)