Giants Sign Miguel Tejada for $6.5MM

The Giants just agreed to sign Miguel Tejada to a 1yr/$6.5MM contract. I am not even joking...

Yesterday, I defended Tejada as an option in an argument with a friend. I'll admit it. I cited three reasons as to why:

• Durable (he's averaged 158 games each season since 1999). Yes, he's going into his age-37 season. But I figured that wouldn't matter, given his durability in the past. 
• Due for a resurgence (his 2010 season seems to me like an outlier, and he could likely hit more like the player he was in 2009) 
• Cheap. I figured he'd be a last-minute option, and the Giants could get him for $3MM. After all, he was signed to a one-year $6MM deal in 2010, and performed worse than he ever has. I figured he'd receive quite a pay decrease. Man, was I wrong. 

Brian Sabean panicked. He saw the Cardinals acquire Ryan Theriot. He knew that he couldn't get Stephen Drew nor Jose Reyes. He knew Derek Jeter was not a legitimate possibility. Most importantly, he saw the Dodgers acquire NLCS hero Juan Uribe. J.J. Hardy was probably not easily accessible, nor was Jason Bartlett I suppose (there are speculations that the Rays wanted Sergio Romo...). So Sabes acted fast. Too fast. And he gave Miguel Tejada twice as much money as he deserves. 

I don't dislike Tejada as the Giants' starting shortstop, and maybe I'm crazy because of it. After all, he produced 1.4 WAR in 59 games with the Padres. Obviously, that's a partial product of small sample size. But he's not terrible. He could easily produce 2 WAR for the Giants, which would render him, in some eyes, an average shortstop.

But this is not how the Giants succeed. They succeed by getting those bargain contracts, like the $6MM that they had to shed out for the combination of Aubrey Huff and Juan Uribe in 2010. And it got them to the World Series. 

This is a stupid deal, not because Tejada is bad -- although it would be nice if the Giants got a player that wasn't nearing 40 years of age -- it's that they gave him $6.5MM. I think, in terms of WAR, he could very possibly meet that value (or even exceed it). He produced 1.3 WAR last year, his worst season ever, and that's valued at near $6.5MM. So I don't doubt that he can live up to the contract.

But again, that's not how the Giants succeed. They need players to be worth more than their contract. For $3MM, I would love to have Tejada. Of course, I would appreciate if the Giants had a decent back-up plan, for the possibility that Tejada gets injured or just plain sucks, but I would have been fine with a one-year $3MM deal. Even in spite of his declining power, his poor walk rates, his terrible defensive range, and his age.

This contract can be filed under Brian Sabean's terrible contracts, along with the Aaron Rowand contract, the Dave Roberts contract, and the Barry Zito contract. It won't harm the Giants too much, but it was an obvious mistake. 

I can now feel content in going back to criticizing Sabean. Everybody fell in love with him when the Giants won the World Series, although I felt that he was receiving too much credit. Hopefully, people will be able to recognize that not all of his moves are brilliant, like the acquisitions of Cody Ross and Pat Burrell. Hopefully, people will realize that Tejada is receiving more money than he deserves and more money than the Giants needed to pay him. 

If Tejada returns to his 2009 form, I will still hate this contract. To reiterate, it's more money than the Giants needed to pay him.

UPDATE: As Andrew Baggarly notes, "Tejada also has led his league in ground-ball double plays in five of the last seven seasons. Recall that the Giants broke a 70-year-old franchise record for GIDPs in 2010, with Pablo Sandoval pacing the NL." Yikes...

Twins Win Bidding for Nishioka. Good News for Giants?

The Twins have won the bidding for Japanese middle-infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka. This could be good news for the Giants, though.

Nishioka is said to be a better fit at second base, but the Giants are looking for a guy who can play shortstop well. In 2010, Nishioka posted a slash line of .346/.423/.482, but that was in all likelihood a big fluke, as he had a BABIP of .389... Before that, his previous best was .300/.366/.463...This article by Patrick Newman of Fangraphs basically likens Nishioka to Chone Figgins and Ryan Theriot, both of whom had unimpressive campaigns in 2010. So Nishioka isn't that great...throw in the fees for bidding and signing him to a contract, and it's definitely too high of a price to pay for a relatively weak shortstop.

The good news here is that this increases the likelihood that J.J. Hardy becomes available on the trade market. Hardy is one of the best shortstop options currently available: he's one of the best defensive shortstops in the majors, with a career UZR/150 of 11.0, and his bat has great offensive upside. From 2007-2008, Hardy belted a total of 50 home runs, although he hasn't come near those numbers in the past couple of seasons. However, his Bill James projections see him hitting .263/.328/.425 next year with 16 home runs. Throw in the superb defense that he'll inevitably provide, and that is an extremely valuable shortstop. Even with his .268/.320/.394 slash line in 101 games in 2010, he managed to produce 2.4 WAR. Project that over a full season and his 2010 worth is at 3.5-4.0 WAR. But he's projected to improve upon those numbers. At this point, the Giants probably wouldn't even have to give up much to get him.

His excellent defense and significant offensive potential warrant serious consideration. A lineup of Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff, Freddy Sanchez, J.J. Hardy, Pablo Sandoval, Mark DeRosa, Andres Torres, and Cody Ross is a legitimate offense. Pair that with the incredible rotation that the Giants have, and I think they have the tools to win many games. And that's not even considering the eventual call-up of Brandon Belt.